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2018 NFL Draft Discussion


squire12

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1 hour ago, Chili said:

My disappointed reaction when Jones got drafted, CWood responds again to put down Deion Jones:

I absolutely HATED the idea of the Packers taking a very undersized LB, and putting him in our defense and my opinion hasn't really changed as much.  He's going to get lost in the mess, and given that a 34 defense asks their ILBs to take on blockers more than a 43 defense I've got little doubt that he would have significant issues with run defense.  I'd take Blake Martinez in the 4th over Deion Jones in the 2nd in a heartbeat.

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22 hours ago, CWood21 said:

After they traded down, the Niners took Foster at 31 after trading up with the Seahawks.  My guess is the Niners felt either the Saints would take Foster or the Packers would take him.  They didn't have the option to take Foster after the trade down.

My big beef with the trade down is we lost the 5th year option on King/foster/whoever in exchange for a 4th rounder.  If he's even a passable No. 1 corner by the time the 5th year option is available, that price is very attractive because you pick up the option as the average of the top 10 guys, but it's 2 years before, so usually that puts them in the 18-20 range by the time salaries have jumped.

 

It really didn't seem like we got a ton of value, and we lost some hidden value in the 5th year option.

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1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

My big beef with the trade down is we lost the 5th year option on King/foster/whoever in exchange for a 4th rounder.  If he's even a passable No. 1 corner by the time the 5th year option is available, that price is very attractive because you pick up the option as the average of the top 10 guys, but it's 2 years before, so usually that puts them in the 18-20 range by the time salaries have jumped.

 

It really didn't seem like we got a ton of value, and we lost some hidden value in the 5th year option.

I had that same mentality last year, and I can't remember if it was @justo or someone else who made a point that said those players will get extensions long before their 5th year option comes into play.  That 5th year option is more about getting an extra year of evaluation on a player.  IF TJ Watt continues to produce like he has, he won't see that 5th year option because he'll sign an extension before then.

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5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I had that same mentality last year, and I can't remember if it was @justo or someone else who made a point that said those players will get extensions long before their 5th year option comes into play.  That 5th year option is more about getting an extra year of evaluation on a player.  IF TJ Watt continues to produce like he has, he won't see that 5th year option because he'll sign an extension before then.

So, that's true to a point, but it also allows you additional leverage in keeping the contract value down.  If you exercise the 5th year option, that effectively becomes the rate for one of the years on the extension.  When you're negotiating an extension, there's less leverage for the player in the 4th year when the option is exercised.  They can either sign with you... or they risk another 2 years of injuries to hit the free market.

5th year option is like a baby franchise/transition tag.  It has some value for sure.  Not quite 4th round pick value, but not too far off either IMO.

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17 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I absolutely HATED the idea of the Packers taking a very undersized LB, and putting him in our defense and my opinion hasn't really changed as much.  He's going to get lost in the mess, and given that a 34 defense asks their ILBs to take on blockers more than a 43 defense I've got little doubt that he would have significant issues with run defense.  I'd take Blake Martinez in the 4th over Deion Jones in the 2nd in a heartbeat.

In a traditional 3-4 I would've probably agreed with you but we were doing loads of sub packages, something stupid like 80% of the time to the point where 3-4 wasn't really our base defence anymore. Deion Jones in sub packages wouldve been an outstanding fit for us. We passed on him and now we're trying to recify that with Josh Jones a year too late. I'm still holding a candle for Josh Jones to figure it out and eventually become the tone setter for our defence.

The hybrid role is popping up everywhere in the NFL and there's now lots of good players playing it. We were very slow in reacting to the changing landscape and missed out on a good player in the process.

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30 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I had that same mentality last year, and I can't remember if it was @justo or someone else who made a point that said those players will get extensions long before their 5th year option comes into play.  That 5th year option is more about getting an extra year of evaluation on a player. 

We talked about it on the old board and the reality for GB is that the 5th year option hasn't been a big deal one way or the other. GB always has cap space and GB always locks up the guys they want. Its a negotiation tool, but the Packers decided they'd rather have another swing in the draft because they manage the cap well and don't lose many players they wanna keep. They also got the benefit of having the various trade conversations, sitting at pick 33.
If they want to keep King, they will.

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24 minutes ago, Chili said:

In a traditional 3-4 I would've probably agreed with you but we were doing loads of sub packages, something stupid like 80% of the time to the point where 3-4 wasn't really our base defence anymore. Deion Jones in sub packages wouldve been an outstanding fit for us. We passed on him and now we're trying to recify that with Josh Jones a year too late. I'm still holding a candle for Josh Jones to figure it out and eventually become the tone setter for our defence.

The hybrid role is popping up everywhere in the NFL and there's now lots of good players playing it. We were very slow in reacting to the changing landscape and missed out on a good player in the process.

Holding a candle? After his rookie year? Deion Jones is a nice player, but Spriggs is better. There are those types of guys every year and GB got one a year later. 

 

There is a pretty short list of teams that actually use those guys. It's not like the Packers are horribly outdated.

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If I'm an NFL team, I'm picking a tackle that I think can be a 10 year tackle 100 times out of 100 before I'm taking an athletic inside linebacker.  I stick to that mentality 100%.  At the same time, Spriggs is not better than Deion Jones.  Jones was graded in the elite territory by PFF.  Even if you think PFF sucks, it doesn't suck that much.  Jones had a 90.5.  For comparison, Kuechley had a 93.9.  Wagner had a 96.7.  Martinez had an 80.2. 

Yeah, we should have drafted Deion Jones.  We didn't.  Tough titties, drafting an equally graded RT over ILB makes more sense.  Life doesn't always work out. 

You know what does work out?  Drafting a QB in the first round when you have a Hall of Fame QB that needs a WR and Roddy White is available.

Gonna complain about shoulda couldas, you gotta take away the shouldn'ta, couldn'tas. 

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I absolutely HATED the idea of the Packers taking a very undersized LB, and putting him in our defense and my opinion hasn't really changed as much.  He's going to get lost in the mess, and given that a 34 defense asks their ILBs to take on blockers more than a 43 defense I've got little doubt that he would have significant issues with run defense.  I'd take Blake Martinez in the 4th over Deion Jones in the 2nd in a heartbeat.

Not me. When I watch Deion Jones i see a special player. When I watch Martinez, I don't. Sorry.

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Not saying we should have drafted Jones over Spriggs because that would be hindsight. I thought Spriggs was a steal and Jones was more of a 3rd round guy. But, leaving the draft question aside, saying Spriggs has been as good of a pick as Jones is beyond crazy. Jones is arguably the staple of ATLs defense. Spriggs was stuggling to block 4th string DEs in the preseason this year. 

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