Packers hire Mike Pettine as Defensive Coordinator

[Green19]

1 minute ago, strat1080 said:

I feel exactly the same way. I'm not sold that he's really going to be a significant improvement over Capers. Our problem has been getting past the teams with good offenses. We can't slow down good offenses. They always score 30+ points on us. It's like clockwork. Like I illustrated, Pettine doesn't really have a good track record against Tom Brady. Tom Brady dropped a couple 40 burgers on Pettine's defense along with some point totals in the high 30s. In 2011 Tom Brady put up 30 points on the Jets in both games that year. I'm hopeful its the right move but I'm not sold on it. The numbers don't suggest that we just hired a brilliant defensive mind. I do like that he's from the Rex Ryan/Ravens family. I like the fact that if his defense is going to go down it's going to go down swinging and bringing heat. Unlike the garbage that we've seen from Capers over the years.  

——The initial playbook itself is actually quite thin, and that’s by design. “I don't put a lot of graduate-level information in it,” Pettine says. “We know in places like New England, it's only a matter of time that they somehow mysteriously end up with our playbook.”

Pettine told a story of how, at Wes Welker’s wedding, Tom Brady bragged a little bit to Jets outside linebackers coach Mike Smith, who was Welker’s college roommate, that the Patriots may or may not have had possession of a couple Jets defensive playbooks.

“It didn't shock me because Rex would give them out like candy anyway,” Pettine says. “He gave one out to [Alabama coach Nick] Saban and I was like, 'Don't you know Saban and Bill [Belichick] are pretty good friends? I have a feeling it's going to end up in New England.'” — —

Again from Greg Bedard’s piece on Pettine. Probably why Tom did so well... Rex gave out the play book ?. Such a Rex Ryan thing to do.

[dcerb44]

5 minutes ago, strat1080 said:

I feel exactly the same way. I'm not sold that he's really going to be a significant improvement over Capers. Our problem has been getting past the teams with good offenses. We can't slow down good offenses. They always score 30+ points on us. It's like clockwork. Like I illustrated, Pettine doesn't really have a good track record against Tom Brady. Tom Brady dropped a couple 40 burgers on Pettine's defense along with some point totals in the high 30s. In 2011 Tom Brady put up 30 points on the Jets in both games that year. I'm hopeful its the right move but I'm not sold on it. The numbers don't suggest that we just hired a brilliant defensive mind. I do like that he's from the Rex Ryan/Ravens family. I like the fact that if his defense is going to go down it's going to go down swinging and bringing heat. Unlike the garbage that we've seen from Capers over the years.  

Brady drops 40 burgers on almost everyone. Most great QB’s do. Nobody will consistently shut down top tier QB’s. 

[strat1080]

15 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

find a better source

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-offensive-points-per-game?date=2012-02-05

your source is total team points given up (which includes opponent defensive scores and special team scores which should be excluded when looking at defensive performance).

And at the end of the day, your numbers still suggest Pettine is just another Dom Capers. Just basically an average scoring defense. Remember we've had #11 and #12 scoring defenses under Capers. We are going to do well against garbage offenses and the good offenses are still going to score 30+ against us. We've gone round and round over Capers. I think at the end of the day we both agree that Capers defenses were basically middle of the pack. On average he was probably somewhere around #14 to #18 in most metrics. Its a matter of expectations though. I don't think striving to be average on defense is good enough to win championships. For example, being middle of the pack on any side of the team is simply not tolerated in an organization like the Patriots. I think we are going to continue to be average in scoring defense under Pettine. I hope I'm wrong. I'm pretty disappointed we weren't able to bring in Fangio. Whether McCarthy passed on him or Fangio didn't want to come here, I guess we'll never know.  

[dcerb44]

Strat, 

Any specific reason why you believe Fangio was the best choice? 

[strat1080]

3 minutes ago, dcerb44 said:

Brady drops 40 burgers on almost everyone. Most great QB’s do. Nobody will consistently shut down top tier QB’s. 

No he doesn't. Brady gets held under 30 points about half the time. Just look up the game logs year to year. He gets held to under 30 points about 7 to 9 times in any given season.That's a myth. the Jets held Brady under 30 points in both their games this year. They were #22 in scoring defense. Championship caliber defenses find a way to hold good offenses to under 30 points. Such a copout. In 2011 and 2012 Brady put up 30+ points in 5 out of 8 games against Pettine's Jet defenses. That's not even above average defensive performance from a supposedly good Jets defense. Obviously when you play great QBs like Brady and Rodgers you aren't going to shut them down every game but you can't give up over 30 points more than half the time. That's basically the league average. I'm not saying Pettine is terrible or was a terrible DC. Just saying the numbers suggest his defenses were average to below average in scoring defense. He's not Mel Tucker but I don't necessarily think he was the best guy available. That's all I'm saying. No reason to get upset and offended for simply pointing out the facts. Tom Brady scored 30+ points in 5 out of 8 games against Pettine's Jets defense during his tenure with the Jets. That did happen. That's not really any better of a track record than Dom Capers has had against elite QBs.  

[strat1080]

7 minutes ago, dcerb44 said:

Strat, 

Any specific reason why you believe Fangio was the best choice? 

Umm. Have you read any of my posts? The numbers clearly indicate he has just flat out been better as a DC. Pettine has had 2 (3 if you go by incognito's numbers) out of 5 seasons with a Top 10 ranking in scoring defense while Fangio has had 5 out of 7 seasons with a Top 10 ranking in scoring defense. He rebuilt a terrible Bears defense that was #31 in points in allowed in 2014 the year before he took the job and got them to Top 10 rankings in both overall and scoring defense. His defenses only gave up 30+ points in 3 games in 4 seasons with SF and just one game last year with the Bears. Mike Pettine's defenses routinely gave up 30+ points 3-5 times per season. The numbers are what they are. I'm just convinced Pettine is really an upgrade over Capers. Pettine's defensive rankings are almost a virtual copy of what Capers has done here in Green Bay.

[cooters22]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

i'll take back my hard pass and give some props to @cooters22 for the point(s) last night about HC vs DC

Well thanks! We only make each other better and trust me I've gained knowledge from you and many other's on here. 

[dcerb44]

5 minutes ago, strat1080 said:

No he doesn't. Brady gets held under 30 points about half the time. Just look up the game logs year to year. He gets held to under 30 points about 7 to 9 times in any given season.That's a myth. the Jets held Brady under 30 points in both their games this year. They were #22 in scoring defense. Championship caliber defenses find a way to hold good offenses to under 30 points. Such a copout. In 2011 and 2012 Brady put up 30+ points in 5 out of 8 games against Pettine's Jet defenses. That's not even above average defensive performance from a supposedly good Jets defense. Obviously when you play great QBs like Brady and Rodgers you aren't going to shut them down every game but you can't give up over 30 points more than half the time. That's basically the league average. I'm not saying Pettine is terrible or was a terrible DC. Just saying the numbers suggest his defenses were average to below average in scoring defense. He's not Mel Tucker but I don't necessarily think he was the best guy available. That's all I'm saying. No reason to get upset and offended for simply pointing out the facts. Tom Brady scored 30+ points in 5 out of 8 games against Pettine's Jets defense during his tenure with the Jets. That did happen. That's not really any better of a track record than Dom Capers has had against elite QBs.  

When the hell did I get upset or offended? I merely asked a question because I wanted you’re perspective on the guy you’re batting for. 

I never implied Brady drops 40 consistently drops 40 on everyone. Just that he does to teams, like every other great quarterback.  Point was just that you’ll find very few successful DC’s who consistently shut down those top tier guys. 

Furthermore, if anyone was upset here it was in your reply to me. 

[strat1080]

22 minutes ago, Green19 said:

——The initial playbook itself is actually quite thin, and that’s by design. “I don't put a lot of graduate-level information in it,” Pettine says. “We know in places like New England, it's only a matter of time that they somehow mysteriously end up with our playbook.”

Pettine told a story of how, at Wes Welker’s wedding, Tom Brady bragged a little bit to Jets outside linebackers coach Mike Smith, who was Welker’s college roommate, that the Patriots may or may not have had possession of a couple Jets defensive playbooks.

“It didn't shock me because Rex would give them out like candy anyway,” Pettine says. “He gave one out to [Alabama coach Nick] Saban and I was like, 'Don't you know Saban and Bill [Belichick] are pretty good friends? I have a feeling it's going to end up in New England.'” — —

Again from Greg Bedard’s piece on Pettine. Probably why Tom did so well... Rex gave out the play book ?. Such a Rex Ryan thing to do.

I hope that's the case because overall the pass defense numbers and overall defense numbers look really good for Pettine. I'm just concerned that Brady put up 30+ points on Pettine's defenses at about the same frequency that elite QBs have put up 30+ points on Capers defenses over the years. I really hope I'm pleasantly surprised. At the very least it will add some a new mindset and some new wrinkles to our defense. Hopefully we run some different coverage concepts to challenge WRs a little more. One big thing this defense has been lacking is the concept of rallying to the ball. I see it on so many other defenses. I don't know if its a mental thing or an athleticism thing but I just don't see guys close to ball carriers or WRs who catch the ball. You have to make the opposing team fight for every 1st down.

[dcerb44]

4 minutes ago, strat1080 said:

Umm. Have you read any of my posts? The numbers clearly indicate he has just flat out been better as a DC. Pettine has had 2 (3 if you go by incognito's numbers) out of 5 seasons with a Top 10 ranking in scoring defense while Fangio has had 5 out of 7 seasons with a Top 10 ranking in scoring defense. He rebuilt a terrible Bears defense that was #31 in points in allowed in 2014 the year before he took the job and got them to Top 10 rankings in both overall and scoring defense. His defenses only gave up 30+ points in 3 games in 4 seasons with SF and just one game last year with the Bears. Mike Pettine's defenses routinely gave up 30+ points 3-5 times per season. The numbers are what they are. I'm just convinced Pettine is really an upgrade over Capers. Pettine's defensive rankings are almost a virtual copy of what Capers has done here in Green Bay.

Yes, I did read this post of yours. Perhaps I should have framed that question better. I was asking in terms of philosophy. Not necessarily a comparison of defensive rankings that are affected but a number of other variables. 

 

[strat1080]

2 minutes ago, dcerb44 said:

Yes, I did read this post of yours. Perhaps I should have framed that question better. I was asking in terms of philosophy. Not necessarily a comparison of defensive rankings that are affected but a number of other variables. 

 

I don't really care about philosophy. I care about the numbers. I don't understand your notion that defensive rankings are affected by variables. At the end of the day Defensive Coordinators are retained or fired based on their defensive rankings. Fangio's defenses have been consistently very good and don't have a habit of giving up large point totals. Even when he was rebuilding a struggling Bears defense you could see the improvement they were making to ultimately be Top 10 in both overall and scoring defense. The NFL is a results oriented business. How many points your defense gives up has a big impact on team record. Vic Fangio has a pretty good track record of not giving up 30-40 points when he's got his defensive roster in place.

[TransientTexan]

46 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

find a better source

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-offensive-points-per-game?date=2012-02-05

your source is total team points given up (which includes opponent defensive scores and special team scores which should be excluded when looking at defensive performance).

Yea I figured you were looking at a different metric. Pure point totals are also deceiving because some defenses have to defend against significantly more offensive drives. From 2011-2013, the most fortunate defenses (least drives faced) defended against around 162 drives (~10 per game). The least fortunate had to defend against ~205 drives. That's like having to play 4 extra games in 1 season, making it much more difficult to compete in total-points ranks. Pettine's defenses were among the least fortunate, having to defend against 201 (tied-#1), 187 (t-#7), and 209 (#1) drives. 

On a points-per-drive basis, his defenses actually ranked #6, #8, and #11 in those years.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2011

DSR ranking was #2, #7, & #4.

(DSR=represents Drive Success Rate, measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Take-a-knee drives at the end of a half are discarded.)

Their Sc% was #8, #9, and #13.

(Sc%= Percentage of drives ending in an offensive score)  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/opp.htm

[hoekd0250]

Here's some info on the Rex Ryan/Mike Pettine Defense that should help some people make up there mind.

 

As some of you know, I went to the 46 out of pure desparation two years ago. The top reason I used the 46, was the defensive line play I learned from Rex Ryan. Ryan's method of teaching and reacting to blocking schemes fits lesser athletic and lesser talented DL. Two years ago if you would have looked up "lesser athletic and lesser talented DL" in the dictionary, a picture of my front four would have been in there! Needless to say, we needed something to help us out, and in this case scheme was our answer. So now that you see the "why", let's look at the "how".
 

 

Speaking of history and memory lane, for those that know me, they know I'm a big Miami 4-3 guy. It's the defense I cut my teeth with. The technique I was brought up on, was pure block down, step down (BDSD), and to this day BDSD is still a large part of my teaching when it comes to defensive line. The problem with some of the basic fundamentals of defensive line play in the Miami 4-3 is that it does take some athleticism to do some of the things being asked of these players. For most of my career I've had those guys, however at my last stop, and where I'm currently at, we are devoid of anything remotely close to what I'd call an athlete on our defensive lines. Basically, we are "space eaters" that are good at getting in the way of things, rather than getting off a block and making a play. So, enter in Rex Ryan's teaching on how to play DL!

 

 

 

I have always taught, there are four blocks that a DL has to react to and they are:
 

 

1. Base block
2. Reach block
3. Down block
4. Pass block 

Ryan does not do this, he teaches two very simple rules.  Don't get reached, and don't allow the jump-through (known by most as the scoop block).  So in essence he's taken the system I (and many others) learned and cut it in half.  Yes, I know pass blocking is the same for both, but that's a whole different topic.  Ryan lumps the base block and the reach block together, cutting the teaching down for both.  The down block is also treated like the scoop block, so no new teaching there either.  Ryan refers to this as "generic coaching".  What this means for those that are DL coaches, is you teach only a couple of sound reactions to blocks, and it has to do with basically the direction of the OL the DL aligns over.  You really cannot ask for a more simplified system. 

In 2009 this is just what we needed, as we were not good enough to react to four different blocks, yet we could master the two that Ryan taught.  The reads weren't the problem though, as much as the movements themselves.  Ryan teaches simpler, more effective movements and reactions to blocks, than some of the older, more traditional schemes do. 

Ryan goes further in his discussion on dividing blocks into two categories, rule blocks and reacitonary blocks.  The reach, scoop, and double team fall into the rule block category, while the fold, trap and pass blocks fall into reactionary blocks.  The reactions to all these blocks is still only 2 movements, which is the basis for the simplicity behind the way Ryan teaches his defensive linemen.  This worked perfectly for us, because we felt our DL could handle having their movements, basically cut in half.

[hoekd0250]

There is more to this article if anyone is interested will post. Helps define why McCarthy went with Pettine. We don't have fast athletic linemen instead more space eaters and this should help. Capers also used a lot of 3tech 2 gapping dlineman and pettine will use more of a one gap scheme. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

I've heard the talk about the defense under Capers not working to gether as a unit, and we have all seen many miscommunications between defensive players, on show last season. Therefore this Pettine quote gave me hope - well, this along with his defensive record.

"The final part of the puzzle is to have the entire defense in the meeting room together. It’s few and far between when positions break up, go to their own room and worry about themselves, like most teams operate".

I also like the idea of the buddy system where a smarter guy helps out one, shall we say, not so gifted............and takes resposibility for his play.