Who would the Patriots rather Face Pitt or Jacksonville?

[lancerman]

2 minutes ago, Pats#1 said:

Brady vs the best defense in the league? 

 

Sorry, but Bortles has to be simply pedestrian in order to win...Brady is going to have to be near flawless imo. 

 

I think Brady is absolutely capable and think he will be....but it's not like Bortles is facing anything close to his level of defense and he also has a fantastic run game to rely on as well. 

No but Bortles is going against one of the highest ranked defenses he's seen all year as far as ppg (Chargers were the only one they played that they were ahead of)

[Pats#1]

Just now, lancerman said:

No but Bortles is going against one of the highest ranked defenses he's seen all year as far as ppg (Chargers were the only one they played that they were ahead of)

Come on....the Pats PPG ranking is highly misleading as far how good/bad they really are.

 

Their DVOA is near bottom of the league 

[lancerman]

2 minutes ago, Pats#1 said:

Come on....the Pats PPG ranking is highly misleading as far how good/bad they really are.

 

Their DVOA is near bottom of the league 

People say this EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. with the Patriots. Last year our DVOA wasn't great either. Patriots are always like this. Since week 4 only the Steelers who our arguably the best offense we played all year and Miami in Miami who is always a tough game even when we are great, broke 17 points on our defense. I don't expect Bortles to have success where all those other team came up short

[CP3MVP]

1 minute ago, lancerman said:

People say this EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. with the Patriots. Last year our DVOA wasn't great either. Patriots are always like this. Since week 4 only the Steelers who our arguably the best offense we played all year and Miami in Miami who is always a tough game even when we are great, broke 17 points on our defense. I don't expect Bortles to have success where all those other team came up short

It’s said every single year because it’s true. That’s kindoff the point of advanced stats, to put the traditional ones in context.

[Pats#1]

1 minute ago, lancerman said:

People say this EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. with the Patriots. Last year our DVOA wasn't great either. Patriots are always like this. Since week 4 only the Steelers who our arguably the best offense we played all year and Miami in Miami who is always a tough game even when we are great, broke 17 points on our defense. I don't expect Bortles to have success where all those other team came up short

People weren't expecting Bortles and the offense to do much against the Steelers, a defense one could very well say is better than the Pats, and they went up and down the field on them.

 

Again, I'm not saying Jags win...I just don't think saying "Brady vs Bortles" is accurate in this matchup, because Brady has a MUCH bigger challenge facing the Jags defense than Bortles does facing ours 

[1ForTheThumb]

3 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

Pats defense is going to have to make some stops and/or create some turnovers...I don't see the Pats being able to move consistently against that defense.

 

I just don't see the skill players on the Pats that the Steelers had that can exploit matchups other than Gronk, but he will surely be the focus of the D. 

How so? They just let up 42 points.

Theyre vulnerable to the run and Lewis has been balling out. 

Defense is good, no doubt, but so is this Patriots offense. They have a ton of good skill players and can exploit your weaknesses. 

I really think it’s going to come down to Bortles crapping his pants in Foxboro. Belichick and Patricia are going to have him flustered. 

24-10 Patriots. 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, lancerman said:

People say this EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. with the Patriots. Last year our DVOA wasn't great either. Patriots are always like this. Since week 4 only the Steelers who our arguably the best offense we played all year and Miami in Miami who is always a tough game even when we are great, broke 17 points on our defense. I don't expect Bortles to have success where all those other team came up short

To be fair, though, the formula to beat NE on D - get pressure with 4 guys, including inside push, to not let him step up, and great coverage, preferably man-to-man.   DEN 2015 was exactly this blueprint. 

NE's D is underrated, but JAX 2017 fits DEN's 2015 D to a T.  Now home field advantage absolutely matters.  So it's not like it's a lock JAX can stifle NE's O.  But there's a good chance.    Then it comes down to how well Bortles plays vs. NE's D.  Fournette being 100 percent or not is huge here IMO.   He was an absolute animal pre-injury, didn't even look close to the same afterwards.

[lancerman]

Just now, Pats#1 said:

People weren't expecting Bortles and the offense to do much against the Steelers, a defense one could very well say is better than the Pats, and they went up and down the field on them.

 

Again, I'm not saying Jags win...I just don't think saying "Brady vs Bortles" is accurate in this matchup, because Brady has a MUCH bigger challenge facing the Jags defense than Bortles does facing ours 

I don't think Pittsburgh is better than the Pats defense, and I think they've lost more key pieces that make their rankings far more misleading, while New England's has been largely consistent since they stabilized after week 4.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, 1ForTheThumb said:

How so? They just let up 42 points.

Theyre vulnerable to the run and Lewis has been balling out. 

Defense is good, no doubt, but so is this Patriots offense. They have a ton of good skill players and can exploit your weaknesses. 

I really think it’s going to come down to Bortles crapping his pants in Foxboro. Belichick and Patricia are going to have him flustered. 

24-10 Patriots. 

Gronk is elite, so you have guys, but you look at the 2 TD's Brown & pass TD Bell got, those are just unbelievable catches.   The 6th TD was JAX letting PIT march down, to drain clock.   I know Gronk can make those plays, not so sure anyone else makes those plays on NE.   Brown & Bell played out of their minds (which in AB's case was nuts, given he wasn't even at full strength, couldn't juke and jiggle, just outfought the CB's for the ball on both scores, ridiculous 1-hander first one).

Still, 14-21 pts is enough to beat JAX if Bortles can't make plays with his arm and legs.  

[Pats#1]

Just now, 1ForTheThumb said:

How so? They just let up 42 points.

Theyre vulnerable to the run and Lewis has been balling out. 

Defense is good, no doubt, but so is this Patriots offense. They have a ton of good skill players and can exploit your weaknesses. 

I really think it’s going to come down to Bortles crapping his pants in Foxboro. Belichick and Patricia are going to have him flustered. 

24-10 Patriots. 

They let up a lot of points off of huge plays that I dont think the Patriots playmakers could make. 

 

I don't see Lewis/White making that Bell TD catch, and I don't see any NE wr making either AB td catch. 

 

I think New England will get theirs, my biggest worry is everyone relying on Bortles crapping his pants when he showed today he doesn't need to be spectacular to win and he is more than capable of making the necessary plays to win.

[lancerman]

Just now, Broncofan said:

To be fair, though, the formula to beat NE on D - get pressure with 4 guys, including inside push, to not let him step up, and great coverage, preferably man-to-man.   DEN 2015 was exactly this blueprint. 

NE's D is underrated, but JAX 2017 fits DEN's 2015 D to a T.  Now home field advantage absolutely matters.  So it's not like it's a lock JAX can stifle NE's O.  But there's a good chance.    Then it comes down to how well Bortles plays vs. NE's D.  Fournette being 100 percent or not is huge here IMO.   He was an absolute animal pre-injury, didn't even look close to the same afterwards.

I always find it funny when people say that's the formula to beat NE, when that formula applies to every team with a great QB. For years that was NE's formula to beating Manning. Also I said this in the Pats forum, but as good as that Denver defense was, both games were close, one came down to a muffed punt and another to a PAT. So it was very possible for NE to win those games and very likely if they took place in Gillette. It wasn't like NE was getting routed. Also yes Manning was shot to hell, but Denver had playmakers that could compensate a lot more.

[Pats#1]

Having said all of that...

 

I think the Pats come from behind again after a slow start and win 24-21

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, lancerman said:

I always find it funny when people say that's the formula to beat NE, when that formula applies to every team with a great QB. For years that was NE's formula to beating Manning. Also I said this in the Pats forum, but as good as that Denver defense was, both games were close, one came down to a muffed punt and another to a PAT. So it was very possible for NE to win those games and very likely if they took place in Gillette. It wasn't like NE was getting routed. Also yes Manning was shot to hell, but Denver had playmakers that could compensate a lot more.

Sure it works against great QB teams - but more importantly, blitzing, or sitting back in zone, is a no-win prop vs. him (whereas you can bait other QB's into key mistakes, or impatience, etc).   It's why so few teams can win big games vs. Brady & BB. 

And of course it was possible for NE to win those games - but it's also possible for JAX to win here, for the same reasons.    I just don't see any way PIT could have matched up losing so many guys on D - as you said, your D is underrated.  

[1ForTheThumb]

Games don’t play out exactly the same way week to week. Saying you don’t see anyone making x play that Bell or Brown is irrelevant. The Jaguars might also not get two picks. 

Cooks is capable of making big plays. Gronk is capable of making big plays. Lewis is capable of making big plays. Let’s not act like the Patriots don’t have playmakers. 

Not saying it’s going to be a cake walk or not a good game, but let’s not act like the Patriots don’t have a dangerous offense with mismatch nightmares. Coupled with a coaching staff who’s great at exploiting your weekenesses. Especially when you’re inexperienced.

[lancerman]

Just now, Broncofan said:

Of course it was possible for NE to win those games - but it's also possible for JAX to win here, for the same reasons.    I just don't see any way PIT could have matched up losing so many guys on D - as you said, your D is underrated.  

I think Jax is at a massive disadvantage compared to Denver one because it is in Gillette and two because Mile High is independently probably one of the top 3 best homefield advantages in the league.