pgwingman Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 19 hours ago, MacReady said: This is the type of stuff that interests me about the NFL outside of great defense and great defensive back play. NFL Future stuff. Running back market sucks because of the proliferation of WR talent in the NFL. The WR market went up as far as pay, but teams don't quite get that WR, as far as building a Super Bowl winner, is close to the bottom of the NFL in need. The amount of Super Bowl winners who have a sudden postseason emergence at RB are astounding. Pacheco for the Chiefs. Rams didn't have one. Ronald Jones for the Buccaneers Damien Williams was legit the MVP for Pat's first Super Bowl. Mahomes had two picks while Williams ran for 104 yards with a TD. Also caught the game winning TD pass. Sony Michel scored the only touchdown of the Patriots win over the Rams. Also had 94 yards rushing and was literally the only player consistently moving the ball. Blount with 90 yards and a TD in Foles Super Bowl win over Brady. Stokes with us... I'm not looking at all of them, but virtually every single Super Bowl with the exception of the Rams most recent win... It's a RB that's the X factor, that makes the difference. But somehow receivers are getting all the attention right now even though the amount of talent in the NFL at WR is absurd. There were 39 receivers over 8 yards per target in 2002. In 2022, that number shoots up to 52. Just so you know I'm not picking a random year, that number was 31 in 2003, then shot up to 50 in 2004 after rule changes. What's the difference between running backs in 2022 and running backs in 2002? Almost nothing. There were 17 running backs over 1000 yards in 2002. 16 in 2022. The talent field at RB is the same it was 20 years ago. The difficulty in being a running back is virtually the same. They're protected more, but the ability to run hasn't been increased. And they're still taking the same amount of hits (just not to the head). So what you're going to see now is 5,000 high school players up to college freshmen switching their position. There's going to be an influx of talent at S/CB/WR/ILB and other similarly sized positions. There's going to be an extreme shortage of running backs for... As long a gap as the market remains crap for running backs. There's going to be a window for a smashmouth type offense to legit compete for a Super Bowl, with or without a great QB, and I would be the biggest fan of that team in the world. Just look at when the safety market went to **** and then all at once there was an influx of WRs having great years because safeties are no longer getting drafted high and no longer making any money so everyone switched to a different position. I used a little hyperbole here, but the conversation is still interesting how the salary cap market for certain positions effects NFL history. I've always wondered if a team could be successful without giving 2nd contracts to WR or RB. Draft premium positions in Round 1, extend one position a year. I guess the Patriots built their dynasty years somewhat like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted August 31, 2023 Author Share Posted August 31, 2023 Didnt know he'd passed away. One of the old gang...... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, pgwingman said: I've always wondered if a team could be successful without giving 2nd contracts to WR or RB. Draft premium positions in Round 1, extend one position a year. I guess the Patriots built their dynasty years somewhat like that. The Patriots also had a quarterback willing to play for 1/2 price, maybe less. That enabled them to keep a whole lot of guys with middling contacts that fit Hoody's system, and he got the most out of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Leader said: Lolz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Old Guy said: The Patriots also had a quarterback willing to play for 1/2 price, maybe less. That enabled them to keep a whole lot of guys with middling contacts that fit Hoody's system, and he got the most out of them. Lucky for us, we have an even better QB who's willing to play for even LESS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, pgwingman said: I've always wondered if a team could be successful without giving 2nd contracts to WR or RB. Draft premium positions in Round 1, extend one position a year. I guess the Patriots built their dynasty years somewhat like that. You would have to have a really high hit rate. You are using at least one pick per season on a WR and a RB that way, and even then, you probably want to keep at least 5 WRs, leaving at least one of four years with a double up on WRs. I think it is possible, like I can imagine it working, but I think it would be very difficult. I don't have anything going on at work (at the moment) I will run an exercise. I will go the last 4 years taking the 4th WR after round 2 begins and the 2nd RB after round 4 begins. Just to see what a hypothetical roster would look like. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 Just now, ThatJerkDave said: You would have to have a really high hit rate. You are using at least one pick per season on a WR and a RB that way, and even then, you probably want to keep at least 5 WRs, leaving at least one of four years with a double up on WRs. I think it is possible, like I can imagine it working, but I think it would be very difficult. I don't have anything going on at work (at the moment) I will run an exercise. I will go the last 4 years taking the 4th WR after round 2 begins and the 2nd RB after round 4 begins. Just to see what a hypothetical roster would look like. WRs: 2023 - Marvin Mims Jr (2, 63) 2022 - Tyquan Thornton (2, 50) 2021 - TuTu Atwell (2, 57) 2020 - KJ Hamler (2, 46) 2019 - JJ Arcega-Whiteside (2, 57) RBs: 2023 - Israel Abanikanda (5, 143) 2022 - Zamir White (4, 122) 2021 - Kene Nwangwu (4, 119) 2020 - La'Mical Perine (4, 120) 2019 - Justice Hill (4, 113) Italicized are the players you just let go this season. I think the RB room is fine, but I also really like Abanikanda. I don't know that we can make that WR room work though. The best season from that bunch was Hamler as a rookie with 381 yards and 3 TDs. Obviously, we will have to take more swings on players. But just as a random selection of players, I don't really like it. I think I would like the turnover with that WR room but I don't know that it is sustainable to cave to constantly replenish that room so often. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 48 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said: WRs: 2023 - Marvin Mims Jr (2, 63) 2022 - Tyquan Thornton (2, 50) 2021 - TuTu Atwell (2, 57) 2020 - KJ Hamler (2, 46) 2019 - JJ Arcega-Whiteside (2, 57) RBs: 2023 - Israel Abanikanda (5, 143) 2022 - Zamir White (4, 122) 2021 - Kene Nwangwu (4, 119) 2020 - La'Mical Perine (4, 120) 2019 - Justice Hill (4, 113) Italicized are the players you just let go this season. I think the RB room is fine, but I also really like Abanikanda. I don't know that we can make that WR room work though. The best season from that bunch was Hamler as a rookie with 381 yards and 3 TDs. Obviously, we will have to take more swings on players. But just as a random selection of players, I don't really like it. I think I would like the turnover with that WR room but I don't know that it is sustainable to cave to constantly replenish that room so often. Yeah you're certainly right that the hit rate would have to go up, but to your point, you could also build this team: 2022-George Pickens 2021 - Terrance Marshall, Amon Ra St Brown 2020 - Van Jefferson 2019 - DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin 2022- (nothing) 2021 - Rhamondre Stevenson 2020 - (nothing) 2019 - Tony Pollard I'm obviously cherry picking, so take it with a major grain of salt. If you would give out one 4 year contract a year (assuming the QB was already locked up long term), you'd probably go OT, EDGE, CB, IOL/TE every year. And then you draft OT/EDGE/CB every year in the first round. It seems like the most "efficient" way to allocate cap dollars, if that is such a thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, pgwingman said: I'm obviously cherry picking, so take it with a major grain of salt. If you would give out one 4 year contract a year (assuming the QB was already locked up long term), you'd probably go OT, EDGE, CB, IOL/TE every year. And then you draft OT/EDGE/CB every year in the first round. It seems like the most "efficient" way to allocate cap dollars, if that is such a thing. Hopefully you wouldn't do as poorly as my random picks were. I do think we are looking at an unsustainable hit rate to make that happen. We are also going to be at the mercy of the strength of the class. There have been a few seasons when the Packers really needed a tight end, but the board just didn't fall the way we needed it to, and we were left picking up scraps. A couple of seasons of that really could kill the skill position group. I am still very intrigued about this idea for the RB room. I would even amend it to allow for taking the best RB when he hits value. Use the heck out of him, then let him go, hopefully replace a back every two seasons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Leader said: They don't want him back. They are in rebuild mode. He's a candidate to get moved at the trade deadline. Maybe they get a 2nd in next years draft for him. Edited September 1, 2023 by Old Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted September 1, 2023 Author Share Posted September 1, 2023 (edited) deleted Edited September 1, 2023 by Leader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pf9 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 The week 18 SNF game needs to be a clear win-and-in for both teams that is NOT dependent on other results. The NFL made a huge mistake putting DET-GB in last season. This needs to happen even if it means putting a less marketable team in the time slot. And I'm saying this as a Packers fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mazrimiv Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 23 hours ago, Old Guy said: They don't want him back. They are in rebuild mode. He's a candidate to get moved at the trade deadline. Maybe they get a 2nd in next years draft for him. Evans is a 30 years old, and entering his 10th year in the league. I don't see him having RD2 value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted September 2, 2023 Share Posted September 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Mazrimiv said: Evans is a 30 years old, and entering his 10th year in the league. I don't see him having RD2 value. Amazing what teams give up to get 'that guy' at the trade deadline. Von Miller, 32 at the time, fetched a second and third for the Rams. HE had come off of a pretty average 2020 season. He too was in his 10th year in the league. You can talk premium position all you want. If a team thinks they need a WR to get to the Super Bowl, it becomes a premium position for them. Miller played 8 games plus the playoffs for the Rams for that price tag. Evans has put up 1000 yards receiving every year in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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