Jump to content

SURVIVOR POOL XII is now over! THE DUKE is our champion!


Woz

Recommended Posts

21 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Too lazy to do any work, but how does Kiei have so many less games than everyone else?

I put the wrong marker for his team selections in the wrong column. Kiei's calculation of 32-26 is correct. However, that still puts him quite a bit ahead of the rest of the pack. Part of that reasoning is that he's only one of two people not to have selected Philadelphia.

I'm doublechecking my numbers and will post a new tiebreaker in a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The updated and short version of the tiebreaker:

COMPETITOR		TEAM		PCT	W	L	T	GB
Kiei7			Dallas		0.552	32	26	0	0.0
CWood21			Green Bay	0.610	36	23	0	-3.5
jonnguy2015		San Francisco	0.610	36	23	0	-3.5
FakePlasticTrees	Carolina	0.617	37	23	0	-4.0
kyle21121		LA Chargers	0.617	37	23	0	-4.0
J-ALL-DAY		San Francisco	0.627	37	22	0	-4.5
THE DUKE		Cincinnati	0.633	38	22	0	-5.0
packerjmf		Green Bay	0.639	39	22	0	-5.5
MisterB1ll		Dallas		0.650	39	21	0	-6.0
Nbanflguy		Minnesota	0.656	40	21	0	-6.5
ConnPatFan		New England	0.656	40	21	0	-6.5
footbull3196		Minnesota	0.678	40	19	0	-7.5

I accidentally marked Kiei7 as having selected Atlanta and Houston as opposed Arizona and Green Bay. They were adjacent columns, but my apologies for the screw up.

However, how does he have such a big league over everyone? Because of careful picking.

Below lists who everyone has picked and how much they contribute to their record. Kiei7 has picked only two teams that are currently two games above 0.500 or better. The rest of you have averaged ~4.5 teams two games or above 0.500. In fact, of the 16 teams above 0.500, Kiei7 has only picked four, and the rest of you average out at ~5.8. He's been better at picking so-so teams to win on the right weeks.

But now? Now the paranoia sets in.

How much does he risk his tiebreaker advantage by taking highly favored (and high winning percentage) teams versus rolling the dice on those middling teams to protect the tiebreaker but have a higher chance of losing and thus bombing out of the competition altogether?

Of course, the rest of you have the same conundrum: do you take longer shots in hopes of catching up to his lead, or do you play it safe and hope he rolls craps?

Hey, what fun with this be if I didn't screw with your minds? Well, fun for me at least.

 

<< = team selected is at least two games above 0.500
< = team selected is one game above 0.500

FakePlasticTrees [Carolina]
- PIT, OAK, NWE, SEA, PHI, HOU, TEN, CIN

PITTSBURGH	6	2	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
NEW ENGLAND	6	2	<<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
HOUSTON		3	4
TENNESSEE	4	3	<
CINCINNATI	3	4

		37	23	[same as originally quoted]

THE DUKE [Cincinnati]
- ATL, OAK, NWE, SEA, PHI, HOU, TEN, MIN

ATLANTA		4	3	<
OAKLAND		3	5
NEW ENGLAND	6	2	<<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
HOUSTON		3	4
TENNESSEE	4	3	<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<

		38	22	[same as originally quoted]

Kiei7 [Dallas]
- DEN, ARI, GRB, SEA, BAL, WAS, DAL, MIN

DENVER		3	4
ARIZONA		3	4
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
BALTIMORE	4	4
WASHINGTON	3	4
DALLAS		4	3	<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<

		32	26	[incorrectly quoted]

MisterB1ll [Dallas]
- PIT, OAK, GRB, SEA, PHI, WAS, BUF, MIN

PITTSBURGH	6	2	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
WASHINGTON	3	4
BUFFALO		5	2	<<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<

		39	21	[same as originally quoted]

CWood21 [Green Bay]
- BUF, OAK, NWE, SEA, PHI, WAS, DAL, CIN

BUFFALO		5	2	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
NEW ENGLAND	6	2	<<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
WASHINGTON	3	4
DALLAS		4	3	<
CINCINNATI	3	4

		36	23	[same as originally quoted]

packerjmf [Green Bay]
- DEN, OAK, NWE, SEA, PHI, WAS, PIT, MIN

DENVER		3	4
OAKLAND		3	5
NEW ENGLAND	6	2	<<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
WASHINGTON	3	4
PITTSBURGH	6	2	<<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<

		39	22	[same as originally quoted]

kyle21121 [LA Chargers]
- CAR, OAK, GRB, SEA, PHI, HOU, TEN, MIN

CAROLINA	5	3	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
HOUSTON		3	4
TENNESSEE	4	3	<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<

		37	23

footbull3196 [Minnesota]
- BUF, SEA, NWE, GRB, PHI, WAS, PIT, ATL

BUFFALO		5	2	<<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
NEW ENGLAND	6	2	<<
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
WASHINGTON	3	4
PITTSBURGH	6	2	<<
ATLANTA		4	3	<

		40	19	[same as originally quoted]		

Nbanflguy [Minnesota]
- LAR, OAK, GRB, SEA, BAL, NWE, MIN, PHI

LA RAMS		5	2	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
BALTIMORE	4	4
NEW ENGLAND	6	2	<<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<

		40	21	[same as originally quoted]

ConnPatFan [New England]
- PIT, OAK, GRB, SEA, PHI, WAS, MIN, NWE

PITTSBURGH	6	2	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
WASHINGTON	3	4
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<
NEW ENGLAND	6	2	<<

		40	21

J-ALL-DAY [San Francisco]
- BUF, OAK, GRB, SEA, PHI, WAS, DAL, MIN

BUFFALO		5	2	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
PHILADELPHIA	7	1	<<
WASHINGTON	3	4
DALLAS		4	3	<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<

		37	22	[same as originally quoted]

jonnguy2015 [San Francisco]
- PIT, OAK, GRB, SEA, MIN, HOU, TEN, NOR

PITTSBURGH	6	2	<<
OAKLAND		3	5
GREEN BAY	4	3	<
SEATTLE		5	2	<<
MINNESOTA	6	2	<<
HOUSTON		3	4
TENNESSEE	4	3	<
NEW ORLEANS	5	2	<<

		36	23	[same as originally quoted]

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Woz said:

However, how does he have such a big league over everyone? Because of careful picking.

I was more or less asking how the number of games in the W/L column total so much different.  It would have required him to pick teams who had already played their bye, while everyone else had picked teams who hadn't.  That's what I was getting at.  LIS, I didn't do any research into it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, JBURGE25 said:

I expect to see a lot of this lol

There is a decent argument to be made for staying with Houston. Admittedly, it's a major gamble, but their trajectory has turned south significantly. If you can pick them on one of the few weeks they win, it would help your tiebreaker.

Of course ... is this a week they'll win?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




×
×
  • Create New...