Jake Ryan, pass coverage, and the future of the Packers ILB position

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, cannondale said:

I didn't know you were going back 3 years. I thought you were talking last year. I've made it quite clear that I'm not suggesting ILB is more important than any other position. I simply disagreed that it was a throw away position. In a vacuum would I like an upgrade ? Sure. Watching Kendricks chase down guys is something we don't have

I was going back to 2016...which was the year that Sam Shields was lost with his career-ending concussion.  For me, our defensive issues aren't exactly rocket science.  The sheer amount of attrition at CB in 2016 killed what little proven talent they had, and they were instead relying on players who quite frankly shouldn't have ever been in a role that they were forced into.  There's not a single argument you can make that would argue any logic behind having LaDarius Gunter shadowing Julio Jones around.  As for our issues this year, I'd argue it came from an inconsistent pass rush.  Between the health of Nick Perry and Ahmad Brooks, the overuse of Clay Matthews, and the sheer lack of development from Kyler Fackrell the Packers were an impossible position.  You're not going to win very many games if your pass rush isn't getting home and/or your corners can't cover for a reasonable amount of time.  It's not rocket science.

And I'd make a very real argument that Blake Martinez is better than Eric Kendricks, but @AlexGreen#20 already did it for me.

[cooters22]

You guys have 4 pages of posts, back and forth rhetoric that is some good and some bad. But I'll sum it up in less than 4 pages. If are good at something, you excel to take it to the next level to be great. As a GM, you are ALWAYS looking for ways to upgrade no matter what. Yes you can win with Jake Ryan if you have other great pieces around him. No he is for the most part not a liability, more so on his coverage skills. But he isn't great at it. This team needs pass rushers, we all know that. But bottom line if you have the chance to pick a Roquan Smith who you think may be a DIFFERENCE maker at one of your weaker positions you gotta entertain that thought. Now I'm not saying make the pick because we all know edge rushers are harder to get and at a more premium position. So you have to look at your board and pull out your slide ruler and see what pick makes more sense. If he is sitting there and a edge rusher at a higher premium position is close to Roquan on your evaluation board you grab the edge rusher, but if the slide ruler tells you not to then you take Roquan or trade down. Obviously this is why DE's, LT's and QB's are a lot of times chosen with the first overall pick over a ILB or a Center. I take Lawrence Taylor over Ryan Shazier every day of the week in a redraft, but I'd take Ryan Shazier over Nick Perry everyday of the week, don't matter what that we don't have a edge rusher. That's what FA and trades are also for. 

[CWood21]

5 minutes ago, cooters22 said:

I take Lawrence Taylor over Ryan Shazier every day of the week in a redraft, but I'd take Ryan Shazier over Nick Perry everyday of the week, don't matter what that we don't have a edge rusher. That's what FA and trades are also for. 

I really am not sure what to tell you if you think that a healthy Ryan Shazier has a bigger impact over a healthy Nick Perry.

[cooters22]

14 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

nI really am not sure what to tell you if you think that a healthy Ryan Shazier has a bigger impact over a healthy Nick Perry.

Please do I value your opinion. But keep in mind that Nick's career has been a joke so far. His sack numbers for his first 4 years have been 2, 4, 3, and 3.5.  He did have a great and I'll give you that 2016, when he played for a new rich contract. He was way more inconsistent this year and injured yet again. Nick Perry when out of our lineup isn't the same without a doubt. Ryan Shazier goes out of his lineup and the teams defense is and has been is disarray ever since. Ryan averages about 2,3 sacks a year, 2.5 times the amount of tackes and makes and creates turnovers. And conveniently I love how you quote me and some how throw in the word HEALTHY before each guys names. I considered health in my argument, but also consistency and the fact it took it five years to give us more than a glimpse of how good he can be. 

[CWood21]

31 minutes ago, cooters22 said:

Please do I value your opinion. But keep in mind that Nick's career has been a joke so far. His sack numbers for his first 4 years have been 2, 4, 3, and 3.5.  He did have a great and I'll give you that 2016, when he played for a new rich contract. He was way more inconsistent this year and injured yet again. Nick Perry when out of our lineup isn't the same without a doubt. Ryan Shazier goes out of his lineup and the teams defense is and has been is disarray ever since. Ryan averages about 2,3 sacks a year, 2.5 times the amount of tackes and makes and creates turnovers. And conveniently I love how you quote me and some how throw in the word HEALTHY before each guys names. I considered health in my argument, but also consistency and the fact it took it five years to give us more than a glimpse of how good he can be. 

You can literally go down the list of reasons why a team will win a game, and there's not a single one that an ILB impacts more than an EDGE player.  it simply doesn't happen.  When you look at 3rd down percentages, that goes directly tied to your pass rush and your corners ability to hold up in coverage.  You don't need a star player at ILB, you do at EDGE.  You take Shazier out of the lineup, and you put a serviceable (i.e. not a liability) player in his place and they're still a good defense.  A healthy Nick Perry, which we've really only seen once, is a significantly more impactful player than a healthy Shazier.  If you want to knock Perry for his health, but a productive pass rusher is significantly more valauble.

[JBURGE]

Cwood I definitely have strong positional values, but hypothetically if we are looking at a top 3 MLB and an average starting edge, I think I would have to think hard about that

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

Cwood I definitely have strong positional values, but hypothetically if we are looking at a top 3 MLB and an average starting edge, I think I would have to think hard about that

Is Nick Perry an "average" EDGE when healthy?  I'd argue no.  You can not point to a single top defense and say the ILB is the reason for that defenses success.  You simply can't.

[JBURGE]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

1 hour ago, JBURGE25 said:

Cwood I definitely have strong positional values, but hypothetically if we are looking at a top 3 MLB and an average starting edge, I think I would have to think hard about that

Is Nick Perry an "average" EDGE when healthy?  I'd argue no.  You can not point to a single top defense and say the ILB is the reason for that defenses success.  You simply can't.

First of all I said hypothetically. And yeah, I guess I would consider Nick Perry an average starting EDGE, maybe a bit above average. And I don't think you can point to any top defense and say any one player is the reason for their success. Yes ILB is less valued. But I am saying there is a point I consider an EDGE less valuable than a top player at another position.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, JBURGE25 said:

First of all I said hypothetically. And yeah, I guess I would consider Nick Perry an average starting EDGE, maybe a bit above average. And I don't think you can point to any top defense and say any one player is the reason for their success. Yes ILB is less valued. But I am saying there is a point I consider an EDGE less valuable than a top player at another position.

Of course, we're talking about comparing say Luke Kuechly to say Jabaal Sheard.  But that wasn't the argument being made.

[th87]

Patrick Willis was a key cog in a good defense before Aldon Smith arrived.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, th87 said:

Patrick Willis was a key cog in a good defense before Aldon Smith arrived.

Year/49ers Defensive Rank/Top 2 pass rushers by sacks/Sack Quantitiy

07: 20th (Bryant Young/Tully Banta-Cain) 10

08: 22nd (Parys Haralson/Justin Smith) 15

09: 4th (Manny Lawson/Justin Smith [or Ahmad Brooks]) 12.5

10: 16th (Justin Smith/Ahmad Brooks) 13

11: 2nd (Aldon Smith/Justin Smith) 21.5

12: 2nd (Aldon Smith/Ahmad Brooks) 26

13: 3rd (Ahmad Brooks/Aldon Smith) 17

14: 10th (Ahmad Brooks/Aaron Lynch) 12

49ers were consistently elite defensively when they had an elite top 2 rushers (and in many instances 3 rushers w/ Ahmad Brooks)

[cannondale]

All that comes into my head is that S.F. implosion. Crazy. Gonna make a great 30 for 30 someday

[Shanedorf]

Thanks for pulling this all together, interesting to see the trends over time

When you count how many DBs are on the field, how do you account for Morgan Burnett or Josh Jones playing ILB ? Deone Buchanon ?

Are those considered " DB's on the field " - or do you just count the traditional CB/Safety roles ? ( 4 in base, 5 in nickel)

[AlexGreen#20]

5 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Thanks for pulling this all together, interesting to see the trends over time

When you count how many DBs are on the field, how do you account for Morgan Burnett or Josh Jones playing ILB ? Deone Buchanon ?

Are those considered " DB's on the field " - or do you just count the traditional CB/Safety roles ? ( 4 in base, 5 in nickel)

Whichever position the NFL deems them at usually where they played more of their snaps last year. 

In the examples you give, Burnett and Jones are listed at Safety. Bucannon is at LB.

[cannondale]

17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Whichever position the NFL deems them at usually where they played more of their snaps last year. 

In the examples you give, Burnett and Jones are listed at Safety. Bucannon is at LB.

Just out of curiosity, if we draft an edge that was playable right away, would you move Clay inside for the majority of his snaps ? It's been a bit of a pet peeve of mine for a while now. Base or nickel since it matters I guess