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Jake Ryan, pass coverage, and the future of the Packers ILB position


AlexGreen#20

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2 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Just out of curiosity, if we draft an edge, would you move Clay inside for the majority of his snaps ?

No, I like Martinez and Ryan better than Clay at ILB in standard snaps.

Clay should be a 3rd rusher and move inside as a blitzer in the pressure package. There's easily 700 snaps and enough to justify full time status. 

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7 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

No, I like Martinez and Ryan better than Clay at ILB in standard snaps.

Clay should be a 3rd rusher and move inside as a blitzer in the pressure package. There's easily 700 snaps and enough to justify full time status. 

Sorry - I clarified my post too late - would that include nickel as well ?

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7 minutes ago, cannondale said:

I clarified my post too late - would that include nickel as well ?

My starting base would ideally be

Draft Pick/Daniels/Clark/Perry

Clay/Ryan/Martinez

Starting Nickel is:

Draft Pick/Daniels/Clark/Perry

Ryan/Martinez

===============

Obviously your draft pick is going to be a rookie who would probably be splitting snaps with Clay as he works his way into the lineup.

A hardset 3-4 coach might run something different, but I'd have an incredibly hard time putting Dean Lowry on the field over Clay Matthews.

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6 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Year/49ers Defensive Rank/Top 2 pass rushers by sacks/Sack Quantitiy

07: 20th (Bryant Young/Tully Banta-Cain) 10

08: 22nd (Parys Haralson/Justin Smith) 15

09: 4th (Manny Lawson/Justin Smith [or Ahmad Brooks]) 12.5

10: 16th (Justin Smith/Ahmad Brooks) 13

11: 2nd (Aldon Smith/Justin Smith) 21.5

12: 2nd (Aldon Smith/Ahmad Brooks) 26

13: 3rd (Ahmad Brooks/Aldon Smith) 17

14: 10th (Ahmad Brooks/Aaron Lynch) 12

49ers were consistently elite defensively when they had an elite top 2 rushers (and in many instances 3 rushers w/ Ahmad Brooks)

Thanks for the reply. I'm not disputing that having elite pass rushers generally yield elite defenses. 

However, a Willis-led defense did well without elite pass rushing in 2009 and 2014.

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On 1/21/2018 at 11:33 AM, Packerraymond said:

To me this breaks down pretty simply. I'm not going to say Ryan couldn't be improved upon. However, Im not going to actively seeking improvement for him at the expense of another position. Every dollar you spend on FA or a pick you use is one you can't use to improve the pass rush, DBs, pass catchers and OL.

We can win a SB with Jake Ryan at ILB, we are not winning SBs with last year's pass rush or DBs.

Would you pass on Roquan Smith for a Edge rusher in the first?

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14 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

My starting base would ideally be

Draft Pick/Daniels/Clark/Perry

Clay/Ryan/Martinez

Starting Nickel is:

Draft Pick/Daniels/Clark/Perry

Ryan/Martinez

===============

Obviously your draft pick is going to be a rookie who would probably be splitting snaps with Clay as he works his way into the lineup.

A hardset 3-4 coach might run something different, but I'd have an incredibly hard time putting Dean Lowry on the field over Clay Matthews.

The more I think about it, the more I can get behind them signing a IDL/5-tech type that can play LE in base and relieve either Daniels or Clark in nickel when they need it. DaQuan Jones would be huge IMO, and if they added an EDGE in round one our DL/EDGE depth would be pretty good heading into next year.

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Just now, {Family Ghost} said:

Would you pass on Tremaine Edmunds as well?  I think he might actually have some edge skills, while also being an excellent all-around backer.

Honestly, I haven't really dug into him at all.  He was a bit of a late read for me since I heard he was planning on returning to Tech.

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23 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You can literally go down the list of reasons why a team will win a game, and there's not a single one that an ILB impacts more than an EDGE player.  it simply doesn't happen.  When you look at 3rd down percentages, that goes directly tied to your pass rush and your corners ability to hold up in coverage.  You don't need a star player at ILB, you do at EDGE.  You take Shazier out of the lineup, and you put a serviceable (i.e. not a liability) player in his place and they're still a good defense.  A healthy Nick Perry, which we've really only seen once, is a significantly more impactful player than a healthy Shazier.  If you want to knock Perry for his health, but a productive pass rusher is significantly more valauble.

Did you literally not listen to any Pittsburgh Steeler talk since Shazier got hurt. All they do is gripe because they can't find a replacement for him, and how bad their defense got. Heck our garbage qb looked like a stud against them. And as far as a edge player versus the impact of  ILB, you are trying to start a debate, one in which I never questioned. Of course I know players of equal value that a edge guy is more valuable. My original post I mentioned Lawrence Taylor. I'm not debating that. I agree with you. But of equal value is what's in question. So replace Ray Lewis with Shazier, would you still take Nick Perry? I guess our difference is how good Shazier is at his particular position and I also question Nick Perry because of how inconsistent he had been for his first four years.  

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23 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Is Nick Perry an "average" EDGE when healthy?  I'd argue no.  You can not point to a single top defense and say the ILB is the reason for that defenses success.  You simply can't.

Are you basing this off of this past season? 2016? 2015? Or his full body of work, his entire career? Boy I remember a unsportsmanlike incredible hit he had some years back on Andrew Luck and remember thinking to myself, great now he's arrived, only for him to go into a shell next week. 

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4 minutes ago, cooters22 said:

Did you literally not listen to any Pittsburgh Steeler talk since Shazier got hurt. All they do is gripe because they can't find a replacement for him, and how bad their defense got. Heck our garbage qb looked like a stud against them. And as far as a edge player versus the impact of  ILB, you are trying to start a debate, one in which I never questioned. Of course I know players of equal value that a edge guy is more valuable. My original post I mentioned Lawrence Taylor. I'm not debating that. I agree with you. But of equal value is what's in question. So replace Ray Lewis with Shazier, would you still take Nick Perry? I guess our difference is how good Shazier is at his particular position and I also question Nick Perry because of how inconsistent he had been for his first four years.  

What do you expect them to say?  Oh yeah, we're just as good without Shazier as we are with him.  My guess is you believe everything that comes out of McCarthy's mouth as well?  I hate to burst your bubble, but that's media speak at best.

So you're telling me that you draft an ILB in the 1st, you're very confident he's going to be a Ray Lewis-caliber player?  No.  We're talking about two similarly valued players, and you're taking the one at the higher positional value.  That's EDGE every day of the week, and twice on Sunday's.

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2 minutes ago, cooters22 said:

Are you basing this off of this past season? 2016? 2015? Or his full body of work, his entire career? Boy I remember a unsportsmanlike incredible hit he had some years back on Andrew Luck and remember thinking to myself, great now he's arrived, only for him to go into a shell next week. 

I'm basing it off the one year he was actually healthy.  As I've discussed ad nauseam, he struggled with health early in the career and even this year when he was relatively healthy he managed to be productive.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

I'm basing it off the one year he was actually healthy.  As I've discussed ad nauseam, he struggled with health early in the career and even this year when he was relatively healthy he managed to be productive.

And I wouldn't disagree with you because he was very good in 2016. He has never played a 16 game season. 

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6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

What do you expect them to say?  Oh yeah, we're just as good without Shazier as we are with him.  My guess is you believe everything that comes out of McCarthy's mouth as well?  I hate to burst your bubble, but that's media speak at best.

So you're telling me that you draft an ILB in the 1st, you're very confident he's going to be a Ray Lewis-caliber player?  No.  We're talking about two similarly valued players, and you're taking the one at the higher positional value.  That's EDGE every day of the week, and twice on Sunday's.

Would you be willing to give me a short list of edge players that you'd all take at #14? And in what order? Thanks. 

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