Cleveland Guardians Thread: CHEAP OWNERSHIP = No Hitting

[buno67]

9 hours ago, NateDawg said:

Michael Brantley to the ‘stros on a 2-yr deal. It’s been real. 

It was known he wouldn’t be brought back. Sucks he went to the Astros. I was hoping he go to the Braves. 

[buno67]

i Won’t call the dolans cheap until March when we can say no moves were made and they did nothing but cut salary. I believe they will be making some signings or at least hope so. 

[FGK]

6 hours ago, bigjohnson2009 said:

I think you're extremely far off here. Bauers will be a big time player as a 4th or 5th option for us. He's a good athlete and will be average in the field. At the plate he suffered from a low BABIP last season and should easily see an increase. His statistical lines will end up like Carlos Santana's: .250/.350/.450. Lefty pull hitter at progressive field = he will clear 20 homers every season and some years over 30. 

Yandy Diaz needs a swing change to be more than JAG. Today's MLB has no place for hard grounders from a corner infield/outfield type. I'm sure we've worked and worked at fixing it and now its TBs problem.

I mean. I'm glad you're so positive... with absolutely no statistical basis for it?

Ask yourself this, why did Tampa Bay dump him for Yandy if Yandy is broken and Bauers is a perennial 2-4 WAR player?

Bauers has NEVER in six minor league years (five if you don't count rookie ball) broken .426 slugging (he is constantly .400-.420) and you have him as a constant .450? The .250/.350 is probably pretty accurate, but there's a possibility in ends up closer to .240/.335, and even 250/350 is nothing more than an okay #6-8 in the lineup from a guy who can't play outside of 1B/LF/maybe RF. 

He's basically even with Yandy as far as prospect value in my opinion. Yandy is older, but has a track record of production at the major league level when given the chance (.310/.375/.420 in limited ABs last year) and the ability to play 3B. I think this trade was more about Tito just not wanting to play Yandy and finding value for him with Bauers plus the money.

[bruceb]

8 hours ago, MWil23 said:

The Indians get worse and the Astros get better. Here comes that elusive 2019 World Series...

Sad, but true.

They are not gearing up to take on the big boys.

Underwhelming, at best.

Hell, if CHI lands a big fish or two, they might not even win the Division.

[bigjohnson2009]

13 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I mean. I'm glad you're so positive... with absolutely no statistical basis for it?

Ask yourself this, why did Tampa Bay dump him for Yandy if Yandy is broken and Bauers is a perennial 2-4 WAR player?

Bauers has NEVER in six minor league years (five if you don't count rookie ball) broken .426 slugging (he is constantly .400-.420) and you have him as a constant .450? The .250/.350 is probably pretty accurate, but there's a possibility in ends up closer to .240/.335, and even 250/350 is nothing more than an okay #6-8 in the lineup from a guy who can't play outside of 1B/LF/maybe RF. 

He's basically even with Yandy as far as prospect value in my opinion. Yandy is older, but has a track record of production at the major league level when given the chance (.310/.375/.420 in limited ABs last year) and the ability to play 3B. I think this trade was more about Tito just not wanting to play Yandy and finding value for him with Bauers plus the money.

I did support my argument with stats. A LHH pull hitter in progressive field could easily see a .20-.50 point SLG% jump. Plus he's still developing/improving. OVER FOUR YEARS YOUNGER THAN YANDY!! Tampa got roasted for this trade. You're not reading into peripheral stats at all, you're just sighting small sample size triple slashes. Guess we will see, but belonging to a dynasty fantasy baseball league doesn't make you the judge, jury and executioner on all things prospects. I trust the professionals who evaluate players for a living.

 

The only reason TB did this was they think they're smarter than us and can fix his swing. He will be JAG with his current GB% and he's 27, we've been trying to fix the swing for a long time.

 

[buno67]

The Thing I’m hearing about  with Yandy is he wasn’t really taking to coaching. Hearing that the coaches wanted him to hit with this kind of an approach and he was going with that kind of approach to the plate. 

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, buno67 said:

The Thing I’m hearing about  with Yandy is he wasn’t really taking to coaching. Hearing that the coaches wanted him to hit with this kind of an approach and he was going with that kind of approach to the plate. 

The thing I'm hearing about with the Dolans is that they're absolutely the worst owners in sports and extreme misers. Live view of the Dolans this holiday season:

[buno67]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

The thing I'm hearing about with the Dolans is that they're absolutely the worst owners in sports and extreme misers. Live view of the Dolans this holiday season:

Worst owners? C’mon...

cheap owners yes. Can’t beleive we’re getting all bent out of shape of Yandy lol

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, buno67 said:

Worst owners? C’mon...

1 minute ago, buno67 said:

cheap owners yes. Can’t beleive we’re getting all bent out of shape of Yandy lol

It's not Yandy, it's them refusing to pay guys, extend them, trading them, etc. That WS window slammed shut in a hurry and it's not SOLELY because the NYY, Red Sox, and Astros are all that much incrementally better than us, although they definitely are now.

[FGK]

10 hours ago, bigjohnson2009 said:

I did support my argument with stats. A LHH pull hitter in progressive field could easily see a .20-.50 point SLG% jump. Plus he's still developing/improving. OVER FOUR YEARS YOUNGER THAN YANDY!! Tampa got roasted for this trade. You're not reading into peripheral stats at all, you're just sighting small sample size triple slashes. Guess we will see, but belonging to a dynasty fantasy baseball league doesn't make you the judge, jury and executioner on all things prospects. I trust the professionals who evaluate players for a living.

He's been at four different minor league levels plus Tampa, he's never posted a .450 SLG% before but now you think he magically will have that routinely because Progressive field? The Jake (grew up in the 90s) is literally the closest thing you can get to a neutral environment for homers according to Park Factors. From the park description, "The Jake is a neutral ballpark that doesn't provide any particular advantage to hitters or pitchers. The park has generic dimensions left to right (325-370-405-375-325) and no real architectural oddities."

I mean, did you even know this guy existed before last week? Because I put him on my watch list after his breakout age 18 season in single A when he put up 300/370/415 thinking he might gain power and become something legit. As far as "experts go," where the hell do you think I get my opinions from? I'm not out watching freaking single A tape. The book on Bauers ever since that 2014 season has always been that he's a high OBP guy with very little power who profiles as a good platoon bat in a corner or at 1st (probably mostly 1st) but would be well below average as a starting 1B.

I'd love to be wrong, and there is a history of the organization turning other team's trash into treasure though mainly with pitching (Clev, Carrasco, Klubot), so you never know. But I'd storngly suggest tempering expectations.

[bigjohnson2009]

12 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

He's been at four different minor league levels plus Tampa, he's never posted a .450 SLG% before but now you think he magically will have that routinely because Progressive field? The Jake (grew up in the 90s) is literally the closest thing you can get to a neutral environment for homers according to Park Factors. From the park description, "The Jake is a neutral ballpark that doesn't provide any particular advantage to hitters or pitchers. The park has generic dimensions left to right (325-370-405-375-325) and no real architectural oddities."

I mean, did you even know this guy existed before last week? Because I put him on my watch list after his breakout age 18 season in single A when he put up 300/370/415 thinking he might gain power and become something legit. As far as "experts go," where the hell do you think I get my opinions from? I'm not out watching freaking single A tape. The book on Bauers ever since that 2014 season has always been that he's a high OBP guy with very little power who profiles as a good platoon bat in a corner or at 1st (probably mostly 1st) but would be well below average as a starting 1B.

I'd love to be wrong, and there is a history of the organization turning other team's trash into treasure though mainly with pitching (Clev, Carrasco, Klubot), so you never know. But I'd storngly suggest tempering expectations.

Honestly you aren't worth replying to if you:

A) don't think there's a LHH favorable factor at Progressive ( http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbdk2k16_parkfactors/which-parks-most-least-favorable-fantasy-baseball-hitters-pitchers-mlb#CLE check out #16 which was just the first link i clicked) (Bauers has a huge pull factor which will keep his average down around .250-.270 but should result in plenty of homers)

B) don't think 23 year olds ever improve

I've known who Jake Bauers is a long time, I also play fantasy baseball so I must be credible.

And if you're so obsessed with "the book" on 23 y/o Bauers you might want to read up on the book for 27 y/o Diaz.

[bigjohnson2009]

12 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

He's been at four different minor league levels plus Tampa, he's never posted a .450 SLG% before but now you think he magically will have that routinely because Progressive field? The Jake (grew up in the 90s) is literally the closest thing you can get to a neutral environment for homers according to Park Factors. From the park description, "The Jake is a neutral ballpark that doesn't provide any particular advantage to hitters or pitchers. The park has generic dimensions left to right (325-370-405-375-325) and no real architectural oddities."

I mean, did you even know this guy existed before last week? Because I put him on my watch list after his breakout age 18 season in single A when he put up 300/370/415 thinking he might gain power and become something legit. As far as "experts go," where the hell do you think I get my opinions from? I'm not out watching freaking single A tape. The book on Bauers ever since that 2014 season has always been that he's a high OBP guy with very little power who profiles as a good platoon bat in a corner or at 1st (probably mostly 1st) but would be well below average as a starting 1B.

I'd love to be wrong, and there is a history of the organization turning other team's trash into treasure though mainly with pitching (Clev, Carrasco, Klubot), so you never know. But I'd storngly suggest tempering expectations.

No architectural oddities but one wall is 10 feet higher, nice article lol.

[buno67]

I think the Indians will have created about $30m in cap space this off season. If they pocket that cash, Dolan is back in being cheap bandwagon. I think once the big fish sign, Manny and Harper and the market starts to set, we will see what they do

[FGK]

5 hours ago, bigjohnson2009 said:

No architectural oddities but one wall is 10 feet higher, nice article lol.

I cropped the part that talked about that because a high wall in Left doesn't affect your claim that as a lefty pull hitter he would benefit from Progressive field. That's literally from the park factors website. The one most other media outlets get their numbers from.

5 hours ago, bigjohnson2009 said:

Honestly you aren't worth replying to if you:

A) don't think there's a LHH favorable factor at Progressive ( http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbdk2k16_parkfactors/which-parks-most-least-favorable-fantasy-baseball-hitters-pitchers-mlb#CLE check out #16 which was just the first link i clicked) (Bauers has a huge pull factor which will keep his average down around .250-.270 but should result in plenty of homers)

B) don't think 23 year olds ever improve

I've known who Jake Bauers is a long time, I also play fantasy baseball so I must be credible.

And if you're so obsessed with "the book" on 23 y/o Bauers you might want to read up on the book for 27 y/o Diaz.

Posters who say "you aren't worth replying to" when someone is making a logical argument are basically conceding defeat.

Your quoted article has us 9th for LH power. And you're complaining about SSS with Yandy but saying it will improve guaranteed off of his 300 ABs in Tampa, which your own list has as the 15th best park for LH power, a difference, sure, but not much. And you're not addressing why not a single one of his minor league parks pushed his numbers up if ours definitely will.

Nowhere in this have I said Bauers can't improve. I've been saying that ASSUMING he will take a huge leap, as you are, is setting yourself up for disappointment. This conversation should be all about probabilities because nothing is guaranteed in baseball. I'm saying his most likely outcome is high quality platoon bat/backup corner outfielder. You seem to be saying that he's a guaranteed 250/350/450 with 20+ homers every year and multiple 30+ years. That just doesn't make sense when he hasn't displayed those skills in the minors. It's better to assume a guy is who he is than assuming he'll blow up now that he's on the team you root for. 

[bigjohnson2009]

Just now, freakygeniuskid said:

I cropped the part that talked about that because a high wall in Left doesn't affect your claim that as a lefty pull hitter he would benefit from Progressive field. That's literally from the park factors website. The one most other media outlets get their numbers from.

Posters who say "you aren't worth replying to" when someone is making a logical argument are basically conceding defeat.

Your quoted article has us 9th for LH power. And you're complaining about SSS with Yandy but saying it will improve guaranteed off of his 300 ABs in Tampa, which your own list has as the 15th best park for LH power, a difference, sure, but not much. And you're not addressing why not a single one of his minor league parks pushed his numbers up if ours definitely will.

Nowhere in this have I said Bauers can't improve. I've been saying that ASSUMING he will take a huge leap, as you are, is setting yourself up for disappointment. This conversation should be all about probabilities because nothing is guaranteed in baseball. I'm saying his most likely outcome is high quality platoon bat/backup corner outfielder. You seem to be saying that he's a guaranteed 250/350/450 with 20+ homers every year and multiple 30+ years. That just doesn't make sense when he hasn't displayed those skills in the minors. It's better to assume a guy is who he is than assuming he'll blow up now that he's on the team you root for. 

There are countless scouts who disagree with you. This thread isn't going anywhere I've made my points and let's hope for the indians sake I'm right.