Kurgan's Mock 2.0--PRE COMBINE

[kurgan]

 

RD 1--Darius Leonard ILB, South Carolina State  6'2" 229

So, I know we all want to fix Safety and ILB.  We are not going to trade up, as I believe that vets will be brought in to compete.  So, staying put, Evans, Edmunds, Smith, Fitz and the FSU guy are all gone.  I like Vander Esch, but he, to me, plays like Williams already, and we need the athletic freak to go next to the stopper.  Now, I know that Leonard is not a sexy pick, but he was a Clemson commit coming out of a tiny high school in South Carolina.  If he stayed and had Clemson on his helmet instead of SCSt, he would be in the convo of the first half of the round.  He is a sideline to sideline freak, and the combine will help him so much.  Can learn behind Williams and Timmons and then take over midseason.  Can run, cover, tackle, hit and do it all.

RD 2--Jessie Bates FS, Wake Forest  6'2" 195

Bit of an enigma since he is a redshirt sophomore, and not much tape on him is out there.  BUT, it is great tape.  Long, lean true centerfielder.  Stayed as the deep safety at Wake, and came up in run support and got great angles to outside runs, and plays great zone and man concepts at Wake in their complicated scheme.  May need some time in the weightroom and filmroom, but the long term replacement for Mitchell, for sure.  I do not buy Davis at FS, so this is a long term FS pick.

RD 3--Davin Bellamy EDGE, Georgia  6'5" 236

I had Carter in the last mock, but I like Bellamy for different reasons.  Bellamy was the swiss army knife for UGA this past season.  Played some DE in packages, and was more of a run stopper than pass rusher.  Played some dime linebacker as well as Carter rushed.  Another well coached big time guy in the room that will push or pass Dupree.

RD 5(SF)--Javon Wims WR, Georgia 6'4" 200

Checks all of the boxes for our outside receivers.  A++ run blocker, + athlete, + jump ball/back shoulder catcher.  Question will be his 40, so he might not have the wheels of Martavius but he fits the mold of the type of WR that Ben loves.  Will also punish guys in the run game, and can cover the hell out of some punts.  Also, JUCO kid, so a TON of room for growth.

RD 5--Dorian O'Daniel Defensive Weapon, Clemson  6'1' 205

Does not have a position.  Will work out with safties, but is not one.  Not an off the ball LB either.  He is a _______.  Subpackage stopper.  Old school strong safety/rover.  Elite athlete that can cover slots, tackle lane 1 runs and outside zones, and can even stand inside and drop as a Tampa 2 MLB.  Hell, Clemson put him on the line in a sprinter stance and had him rush the passer as well.

RDD 5 (Comp)--Alex Cappa OT, Humboldt State  6'6" 300

Star at Shrine Bowl.  Nasty grinder who can flat get after it.  NOT a LT, but a RT/Guard guy that can flop and learn and grow.  Munchack will mold him into a swing guy that we can count on.  Has great feet, but no great film.

RD 7 (NYG)--Deadrin Serat DL, USF  6' 300

Fire hydrant that can move.  Polar opposite of Shade Tree.  Plugger on short downs, some quicks in passing situations.  Real fun to watch.

RD 7--Joel Lanning MLB, Iowa State 6'2" 230

Gotta take my guy.  Position switch from QB!!!  Plugger that held Iowa State together with duct tape and glue.  Played both sides.  NOT great athleticism, but heart in spades.  Raw in terms of coaching, but may be a diamond in the rough once all said and done.  Worth a flier and at worst will be a special teams wiz and helliuva teammate.

[warfelg]

They all feel about a half a round to a full round early on the players but the positions are on. 

[mwalker]

5 minutes ago, warfelg said:

They all feel about a half a round to a full round early on the players but the positions are on. 

I agree. You could get each of these picks a round later. In my opinion.

[Steeler Hitman]

19 minutes ago, kurgan said:

 

RD 1--Darius Leonard ILB, South Carolina State  6'2" 229

So, I know we all want to fix Safety and ILB.  We are not going to trade up, as I believe that vets will be brought in to compete.  So, staying put, Evans, Edmunds, Smith, Fitz and the FSU guy are all gone.  I like Vander Esch, but he, to me, plays like Williams already, and we need the athletic freak to go next to the stopper.  Now, I know that Leonard is not a sexy pick, but he was a Clemson commit coming out of a tiny high school in South Carolina.  If he stayed and had Clemson on his helmet instead of SCSt, he would be in the convo of the first half of the round.  He is a sideline to sideline freak, and the combine will help him so much.  Can learn behind Williams and Timmons and then take over midseason.  Can run, cover, tackle, hit and do it all.

I like the way this guy moves. I have been watching film on him and I actually considered him in my latest mock, but I took his SC counterpart Skai Moore.  Both can drop in coverage and can move. My only knock on Darius is his play in the run game is inconsistent. He seems slow to diagnose at times and he also has trouble getting off the blocker when they get to him. I see him as a second rounder choice, but he probably wouldn't last to our pick. Depending on how he runs (drills and forty), he could slip into the late first rounds.  I like the pick and could live with it right now.  He could be a situational LB and play on passing downs  dropping and blitzing.

RD 2--Jessie Bates FS, Wake Forest  6'2" 195

Bit of an enigma since he is a redshirt sophomore, and not much tape on him is out there.  BUT, it is great tape.  Long, lean true centerfielder.  Stayed as the deep safety at Wake, and came up in run support and got great angles to outside runs, and plays great zone and man concepts at Wake in their complicated scheme.  May need some time in the weightroom and filmroom, but the long term replacement for Mitchell, for sure.  I do not buy Davis at FS, so this is a long term FS pick.

I haven't given up on Davis and believe that he only needs a good backfield mate.  Whether we sign a free agent or draft a FS or SS or combo of both, the position needs help. I have not watched anything on Bates, but I have seen the name in many draft publications/boards.

RD 3--Davin Bellamy EDGE, Georgia  6'5" 236

I had Carter in the last mock, but I like Bellamy for different reasons.  Bellamy was the swiss army knife for UGA this past season.  Played some DE in packages, and was more of a run stopper than pass rusher.  Played some dime linebacker as well as Carter rushed.  Another well coached big time guy in the room that will push or pass Dupree.

I had him in my first mock.  I like the pick and he is a special teams ace at blocking kicks. I am not sue how much he would contribute to the pass rush year one, but I could see him as the Bud Dupree insurance policy.

RD 5(SF)--Javon Wims WR, Georgia 6'4" 200

Checks all of the boxes for our outside receivers.  A++ run blocker, + athlete, + jump ball/back shoulder catcher.  Question will be his 40, so he might not have the wheels of Martavius but he fits the mold of the type of WR that Ben loves.  Will also punish guys in the run game, and can cover the hell out of some punts.  Also, JUCO kid, so a TON of room for growth.

Like the size and numbers, but kinda meh on his impact this year. I would prefer someone who can return punts moreso than just cover them regardless of position here.

RD 5--Dorian O'Daniel Defensive Weapon, Clemson  6'1' 205

Does not have a position.  Will work out with safeties, but is not one.  Not an off the ball LB either.  He is a _______.  Subpackage stopper.  Old school strong safety/rover.  Elite athlete that can cover slots, tackle lane 1 runs and outside zones, and can even stand inside and drop as a Tampa 2 MLB.  Hell, Clemson put him on the line in a sprinter stance and had him rush the passer as well.

Interesting!!!

RDD 5 (Comp)--Alex Cappa OT, Humboldt State  6'6" 300

Star at Shrine Bowl.  Nasty grinder who can flat get after it.  NOT a LT, but a RT/Guard guy that can flop and learn and grow.  Munchack will mold him into a swing guy that we can count on.  Has great feet, but no great film.

I would prefer the flex C than a OT.  We still have Fieler and Friend who Coach Munchack developed nicely as free agents as well as Hawkins.  I want to have some insurance behind Pouncey and Finney.

RD 7 (NYG)--Deadrin Serat DL, USF  6' 300

Fire hydrant that can move.  Polar opposite of Shade Tree.  Plugger on short downs, some quicks in passing situations.  Real fun to watch.

I would prefer a NG who can spell Hargraves on running downs and flex to DT in passing situations. One of my priorities would be to get stronger in the middle of our defense and we need a NG to do that.

RD 7--Joel Lanning MLB, Iowa State 6'2" 230

Gotta take my guy.  Position switch from QB!!!  Plugger that held Iowa State together with duct tape and glue.  Played both sides.  NOT great athleticism, but heart in spades.  Raw in terms of coaching, but may be a diamond in the rough once all said and done.  Worth a flier and at worst will be a special teams wiz and helluva teammate.

Don't know much about him, but sounds like Tyler Matakevich Part 2.

I am 100% on board with your thinking and draft philosophy. I might do a few things differently to help the team, but we agree on th eneeds, just different ways to fill them. Solid Effort.

1 minute ago, warfelg said:

They all feel about a half a round to a full round early on the players but the positions are on. 

That is always the problem with drafting so low in the round. You are practically picking at the top of next round drafting past 25 unless you have an exceptionally top heavy/deep and talent rich draft.  Most drafts you are lucky to get five blue chip players and 8 red chip players. That is only thirteen players there. If you can move down cool, but many times you can't and are stuck with making that decision. The Steelers are consistently in that position picking in the late teens on off years and the lower part on play-off years. It is tough to get those studs like that.

[MDSteeler1971]

Supposedly we are not getting a comp pick.

[jebrick]

I do not think Darius Leonard is worth a 1st round pick.  I'm not sure that Ronnie Harrison is worth a 1st round pick but I would take him over Leonard in the 1st.  Leonard makes a lot of false steps in his reading of plays.  It makes him play slower.

 

I am a big fan of Jessie Bates.  I am also totally sure the Steelers would not draft him.  I think they are looking for different things in safeties than I am.

 

I do not mind the other picks but I am not excited by them either.

[warfelg]

On 2/23/2018 at 2:17 PM, Steeler Hitman said:

 

That is always the problem with drafting so low in the round. You are practically picking at the top of next round drafting past 25 unless you have an exceptionally top heavy/deep and talent rich draft.  Most drafts you are lucky to get five blue chip players and 8 red chip players. That is only thirteen players there. If you can move down cool, but many times you can't and are stuck with making that decision. The Steelers are consistently in that position picking in the late teens on off years and the lower part on play-off years. It is tough to get those studs like that.

Still not an excuse to take prospects in the 45-65 BPA range in the first and be drafting guys you could get almost a round later. 

[Steeler Hitman]

48 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Still not an excuse to take prospects in the 45-65 BPA range in the first and be drafting guys you could get almost a round later. 

I get what you are saying Warfelg.  However, if you are drafting 30 (like the Steelers) and you have a prospect that you really like.  The majority of the picks are ranked at positions where you have depth and strength say (QB, WR, TE, RT, etc). Now this prospect is ranked 40, and you can't move down and it is a position of need.  The drop off is even greater if you try to wait until the next round. Would you take them?  In many cases, I say that you do.  If that happens with an ILB or FS, I would be awfully tempted to take that player ranked 40 over a QB that fell unless maybe he was a Patrick Mahomes type prospect. Thoughts?

[kurgan]

Thanks for the feedback, guys... it was more of a challenge to not have the same old/same old at this point, especially pre-combine.  I like these guys and see them fitting, and maybe the rounds are off, but they would all work and be difference makers.

 

My only foray into this whole BPA/player role issue is this:  When I am doing a mock, I have to think about who will be there at 1.28.  The next pick I get is 2.56 (or whatever).  If I think guy A,B,C and D are gone by 1.28, I have to take the guy I want there and not wait until 2.56.  I can't worry about a 1/2 round early... that makes no sense to me.  What am I supposed to do, not draft a ILB that I like because he is 15 picks too early??   Instead I should take Guice or Rudolph to make the numbers work??  I think that it is an easy complaint as well.  Like, it is easy to say that Leonard will be picked too early.  How do we know??  What if I passed on him and he was taken at 1.31 by New England.  Would I then be right??  I also saw it in something else on here, if you went BPA all the time, we would end up with 7 running backs or QBs.

[Steeler Hitman]

26 minutes ago, kurgan said:

Thanks for the feedback, guys... it was more of a challenge to not have the same old/same old at this point, especially pre-combine.  I like these guys and see them fitting, and maybe the rounds are off, but they would all work and be difference makers.

 

My only foray into this whole BPA/player role issue is this:  When I am doing a mock, I have to think about who will be there at 1.28.  The next pick I get is 2.56 (or whatever).  If I think guy A,B,C and D are gone by 1.28, I have to take the guy I want there and not wait until 2.56.  I can't worry about a 1/2 round early... that makes no sense to me.  What am I supposed to do, not draft a ILB that I like because he is 15 picks too early??   Instead I should take Guice or Rudolph to make the numbers work??  I think that it is an easy complaint as well.  Like, it is easy to say that Leonard will be picked too early.  How do we know??  What if I passed on him and he was taken at 1.31 by New England.  Would I then be right??  I also saw it in something else on here, if you went BPA all the time, we would end up with 7 running backs or QBs.

We are saying the same thing here. i am curious to here some feedback from others on this. Last year, I was high on Shaq Griffin who was drafted by the Seahawks.  He was projected in the third and great guess he went in the third, several picks before ours. I think the Steelers liked James Connor and that is why they took him with their Supplemental pick at the end of round three rather than letting some other team get a draft value with the player you want 10 picks later at the top of the fourth.

I was listening to a mock draft on the NFL Satellite Radio where a guy mocked former NC WR Ryan Switzer in the first round.  His logic was that was his favorite player. This is an example of extreme reaching and not doing your homework or getting the best value. One of my favorite draft stories is about John Stallworth.  Chuck Noll loved John Stallworth and thought he was the best WR in the draft. he wanted to pick him in the first round.  Fortunately, he was convinced to wait.  They got Lynn Swann who was a better draft value and then Noll had to be convinced to wait on Stallworth as they took a skinny MLB from Kent State named Jack Lambert.  They say Noll was sweating bullets because the Steelers did not have a third round pick that year. In the fourth round there was future hall of fame WR John Stallworth.

They were lucky.  The Steelers have lost out on a lot of OLB's and CB's due to where they are picking over the past few years.  I say don't take a fourth round prospect in the second round.  However, if you are picking at the end of the second round and like a third round prospect then you better grab him because he most likely won't be there when you are picking at the end of that round.

[Armsteeld2]

Value is one of the more useless terms used in football when it comes to the draft.  How does one truly determine value?  Need and Risk are better words to determine drafting a player rather than value.  Value in football terms is hindsight or putting it loosely, guess or luck.  Slow down Tito!  Check on what I said before rapidly responding.  Allow the words to caress your taste buds before spitting them out.  Now, let’s hear it lol

[warfelg]

4 hours ago, Armsteeld2 said:

Value is one of the more useless terms used in football when it comes to the draft.  How does one truly determine value?  Need and Risk are better words to determine drafting a player rather than value.  Value in football terms is hindsight or putting it loosely, guess or luck.  Slow down Tito!  Check on what I said before rapidly responding.  Allow the words to caress your taste buds before spitting them out.  Now, let’s hear it lol

Personally I think it's an important word.

To me:

Value pick = A position you didn't really need but fell to you with a highly rated player. David Decastro.

Value need = Quality player at a need position. Ryan Shazier.

Need = You just took a player high on your board at a position that he would be a fast contributor. Artie Burns.

Value Risk = Best player I can peg into this as an example is Reuben Foster.  Niners took a risk taking him, but his on field talent at that point made him a value pick.

Risk = Off field issues might out weigh the on field production but he can produce.  Martavis Bryant.

 

Value is a word needed in the draft, but it needs to be combined with something else.  There's much more and it's something that the 'professionals' that do mock drafts will make you think is cut and dry.  I read one today that had 4 QB's go in the top 5 because they were 'valuable'.  I wanted to scream.  They were need based reaches.

[Armsteeld2]

@warfelg DeCastro was a huge Need.  We didn’t have the good OL then.  Kemo was our starter and needed upgrading.  Overall I can respect what you said.

[warfelg]

5 minutes ago, Armsteeld2 said:

@warfelg DeCastro was a huge Need.  We didn’t have the good OL then.  Kemo was our starter and needed upgrading.  Overall I can respect what you said.

While true, IMO he would have been the pick anyways just because he was a top 10 overall talent in that draft.  We as a franchise do not have many of these picks lately.  I would say the last one I remember was Cam Heyward.  I remember that draft we were pegged so hard to take Hightower, then DeCastro was there and it was an 'oh crap' moment where they realized what just happened.

[Armsteeld2]

19 minutes ago, warfelg said:

While true, IMO he would have been the pick anyways just because he was a top 10 overall talent in that draft.  We as a franchise do not have many of these picks lately.  I would say the last one I remember was Cam Heyward.  I remember that draft we were pegged so hard to take Hightower, then DeCastro was there and it was an 'oh crap' moment where they realized what just happened.

I wanted Hightower so damn bad!