Barkley should go #1.

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Seems Barkley may confidently not be in the top 3 at this point.

As much as I believe in his talent and elite and a 1.1 pick could have been justified for CLE (because they own the 1.4 pick) - if NYJ traded up to get Barkley at 1.3, then I retract any compliments I sent to GM McCagney.  You can't trade 3 2nds to pick a nonQB 3 spots earlier   It would be the ultimate Jets thing if that happened, though.   I don't know which outcome I'm rooting for, TBH.  

It's too bad the draft is in DAL this year, I would love to see the NY fanbase reaction on both teams at 1.2 / 1.3.

But yeah, Barkley's fate IMO depends on what the Gmen do now (take him, take QB, etc.).

 

[chris00cm]

Barkley is the best running back athlete in NFL history. 

This idea is silly.

I wouldn't put it past John Dorsey.

[Soko]

If Buffalo moves up to 2 like many expect, I don’t see how Barkley goes #1 - and rightly so. 

Even if NYG stands pat, very real scenario that they take QB. Unless the Browns love Jackson/Allen (the only two who I’d say are extremely likely to make it past the NY teams) they ought to go QB #1. Can see the Jets taking Mayfield/Darnold/Rosen and the Giants taking Rosen/Darnold, but not either of those teams taking Allen/Jackson.

[Uncle Buck]

On 3/11/2018 at 10:47 AM, BleedTheClock said:

Every players floor is the worst player in NFL history. I hate doing floor/ceilings. Barkley could be absolutely horrendous. Is it likely? Absolutely not, but that's what a floor means.

Ceilings make sense, but finding a comparison for someone's floor is goofy.

 

That being said, I think Barkley is a can't miss superstar in the making.

He probably will be great, but you never know.  They said the same thing about Reggie Bush and he sure didn't turn out to be worth the #2 overall pick. 

[smokeybandit]

Interesting thing about Barkley.  The draft date just also happens to be right around the same time has his girlfriend's due date.

[Iamcanadian]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

As much as I believe in his talent and elite and a 1.1 pick could have been justified for CLE (because they own the 1.4 pick) - if NYJ traded up to get Barkley at 1.3, then I retract any compliments I sent to GM McCagney.  You can't trade 3 2nds to pick a nonQB 3 spots earlier   It would be the ultimate Jets thing if that happened, though.   I don't know which outcome I'm rooting for, TBH.  

It's too bad the draft is in DAL this year, I would love to see the NY fanbase reaction on both teams at 1.2 / 1.3.

But yeah, Barkley's fate IMO depends on what the Gmen do now (take him, take QB, etc.).

 

I have been at this game for around 65 years and trades into the top 5 always involves a QB without fail. As you pointed out, nobody in their right mind would trade up for a RB whose career expectancy is around 5 years vs a QB who can have at least a 15 year career.

[Iamcanadian]

4 hours ago, chris00cm said:

Barkley is the best running back athlete in NFL history. 

This idea is silly.

I wouldn't put it past John Dorsey.

Rubbish!!!

[Iamcanadian]

1 hour ago, Uncle Buck said:

He probably will be great, but you never know.  They said the same thing about Reggie Bush and he sure didn't turn out to be worth the #2 overall pick. 

Even if he is great, the most you can expect each year is around 1400 yards, while a Hunt or a Kamara are quite able to produce 1200 yards and a QB can produce 4,000 yards. Nobody is trading up for a RB!!!

[Iamcanadian]

On 3/16/2018 at 6:34 PM, Broncofan said:

Well since that post 5 days ago CLE signed Hyde so picking Barkley and only time-sharing him would be an incredible waste of resources.   You don’t take Barkley 1.1 and then timeshare him esp. with Duke Johnson already there.  It’s hard to think Barkley is going 1.1 with that news.    So QB 1.1 is a foregone  conclusion with the latest developments.   Unless CLE wants to convince NYG they might take Barkley solely to move down to 1.2.  

The above blurb on Barkley not being ruled out seems only to be maneuvering to get NYG to move up from 1.2.   Which I doubt they bite on.  

Hyde’s acquisition would be more indicative that Barkley’s out at 1.1 than GM Dorsey's statement.  Which was pointed out...3 posts above, earlier today by some guy.  

I fully agree with you, Cleveland is not taking Barkley at 1.1 and it is even up in the air whether they take him at 1.4. I think they want to trade with either of Arizona or Buffalo, who both want QB with the 1.4 pick.

The way it is playing out, even the Giants might be willing to trade the 1.2 pick unless they feel inclined to draft a QB, both Cleveland and the Giants would like to tap into Buffalo's need and get those 2 first rounders  plus a bit more.

If the Giants do not take a QB and do not make a trade, it will set Cleveland up nicely to reap the benefits as the #3 QB and the #4 QB, would still be available.

If the Giants stay put, it likely means they will go QB.

Barkley could easily last till the 6 to 10 pick. RB's have a career of around 5 solid seasons if they stay healthy vs a QB who can give you 15 seasons. No team is hugely interested in drafting a RB too high, especially since this draft iis loaded at RB!!! The Colts may have traded down thinking full well, that they still have a shot at Barkley with the 6th pick.

[Uncle Buck]

If the Giants don't take Barkley he should be available to the Browns at #4.  If I were the Browns, I think I might pass on him.  He will very likely be a great running back, but another option the Browns would have is to trade down from #4 and use the extra picks to solidify their offensive line.  With a great O-line and one of the other running backs in a fairly deep draft at the position, they might be in just as good of shape as if they picked Barkley.

Think about it this way.  If you could go back to when Adrian Peterson was drafted, would he have been any more productive than Marshawn Lynch, who was picked later in the first round of the same draft if Lynch had a dominant offensive line and Peterson had an average one?  Another advantage to having some top tier talent on the O-line is better protection for their young quarterback while he is learning to read defenses and get the ball out faster as he gets some experience.

Just a thought.

[BleedTheClock]

14 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Even if he is great, the most you can expect each year is around 1400 yards, while a Hunt or a Kamara are quite able to produce 1200 yards and a QB can produce 4,000 yards. Nobody is trading up for a RB!!!

I don't buy this. 1400 is a real low number for an elite RB.

Barkley will be expected to have well over 2,000 yards when you factor in his ability to catch passes and return kicks. Barkley is more versatile than other feature backs. Usually the guys that are fast enough and skilled enough to return kicks and run routes aren't big enough to be full-time starters. Barkley is going to produce at a high level right away IMO, and will straight up dominate in the return game and as a receiving RB. I think it's silly to say a top 5 RB prospect maybe ever is capped at 1400 yards.

But then I agree with your point that nobody is going to trade up for a RB. With the Jets trade, I think there's about a 90% chance Barkley falls to pick #4, where the Browns should take him.

 

Here's what I think happens with the New York Giants:

1. If they want a QB, they're going to take one at #2. I think this is the most likely option.

2. If they don't want a QB, they're going to be so much better off taking the king's ransom that Buffalo offers them for #2.

[Broncofan]

15 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Even if he is great, the most you can expect each year is around 1400 yards, while a Hunt or a Kamara are quite able to produce 1200 yards and a QB can produce 4,000 yards. Nobody is trading up for a RB!!!

 

34 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I don't buy this. 1400 is a real low number for an elite RB.

Barkley will be expected to have well over 2,000 yards when you factor in his ability to catch passes and return kicks. Barkley is more versatile than other feature backs. Usually the guys that are fast enough and skilled enough to return kicks and run routes aren't big enough to be full-time starters. Barkley is going to produce at a high level right away IMO, and will straight up dominate in the return game and as a receiving RB. I think it's silly to say a top 5 RB prospect maybe ever is capped at 1400 yards.

But then I agree with your point that nobody is going to trade up for a RB. 

As a reference: 

1.  Gurley put up almost 2100 receiving and running yards in 2017.  

2.  Le’veon Bell has put up 1800-1900 yard receiving-rushing seasons 3x out of 4 years (only year he didn’t come close played only 6 games) since shedding all that weight after his meh rookie year.  And he only played 16 games 1x.  15 games and amazingly 12 games the other 2 seasons with 1800+.   So 2K is what elite do-it-all bellcow RB’s can bring. 

What makes Barkley so special is that he’s in that elite HoF tier.  I don’t include Fournette in a large part because he’s not a great receiver.  That is what’s needed now to be generational level.  And Barkley has elite receiving skills to go with his running excellence.   And great blocking too.   I agree with all those who say wait until Day 2 on RB rather than early Rd1 - unless they are generational level.   Gurley and Elliott are the only 2 I’d have argued for the last   7 years.  But hands down I include Barkley. 

There is no guarantee, he could still bust.  I’d say the risk is as low as possible though given his early age success, game film, success in the Big 10, not just the historic Combine.  And consider this - athletically no one has ranked this high percentile-wise with elite college success since 1 guy - Ladainian Tomlinson.  You know, the guy who routinely went over 2000 rushing + receiving yards. 

So let’s not discount the effect here.  Some of those other RB’s (especially Kamara and Hunt if Andy Reid gets his head out of his *** and uses him on 3rd down) will help in pass catching too but the combined yardage diff still is magnified in Barkley’s favor - like it is for guys like Bell, or now Elliott (now that they use him in the pass game).  

(And even then - still wouldn’t trade up 1.6 to 1.3 with that price for a RB.  On that count we are all agreed). 

[pnies20]

Is he good enough to go #1? Yes.

Should he go #1? Probably not. Gotta take your QB if you need one.

in terms of the Browns, if he's there at 4 and you pass, it's just another blown draft opportunity for them.

[Iamcanadian]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

As a reference: 

1.  Gurley put up almost 2100 receiving and running yards in 2017.  

2.  Le’veon Bell has put up 1800-1900 yard receiving-rushing seasons 3x out of 4 years (only year he didn’t come close played only 6 games) since shedding all that weight after his meh rookie year.  And he only played 16 games 1x.  15 games and amazingly 12 games the other 2 seasons with 1800+.   So 2K is what elite do-it-all bellcow RB’s can bring. 

What makes Barkley so special is that he’s in that elite HoF tier.  I don’t include Fournette in a large part because he’s not a great receiver.  That is what’s needed now to be generational level.  And Barkley has elite receiving skills to go with his running excellence.   And great blocking too.   I agree with all those who say wait until Day 2 on RB rather than early Rd1 - unless they are generational level.   Gurley and Elliott are the only 2 I’d have argued for the last   7 years.  But hands down I include Barkley. 

There is no guarantee, he could still bust.  I’d say the risk is as low as possible though given his early age success, game film, success in the Big 10, not just the historic Combine.  And consider this - athletically no one has ranked this high percentile-wise with elite college success since 1 guy - Ladainian Tomlinson.  You know, the guy who routinely went over 2000 rushing + receiving yards. 

So let’s not discount the effect here.  Some of those other RB’s (especially Kamara and Hunt if Andy Reid gets his head out of his *** and uses him on 3rd down) will help in pass catching too but the combined yardage diff still is magnified in Barkley’s favor - like it is for guys like Bell, or now Elliott (now that they use him in the pass game).  

(And even then - still wouldn’t trade up 1.6 to 1.3 with that price for a RB.  On that count we are all agreed). 

When you factor in Kamara and Hunt's receiving yardage, they will produce ever more yards and there is zero chance Barkley returns kicks, no pro team is going to risk him getting injured doing that. No matter how you cut it, Barkley will only touch the ball slightly more that Kamara or Hunt and even if he approaches 2,000 yards on a yearly basis, he cannot match a QB's 4,000 yards and 25 to 35 TD's.

The NFL is a passing league, all the current rules make that perfectly clear and no team is likely to draft a RB in the top 5, before any top 5 QB is picked. I do not know how many QB's are so rated. If the Giants or Cleveland pass on a trade to draft Barkley, they are run by idiots, because the #2 pick is worth a ton to Buffalo, who will definitely overpay to get ahead of Denver and Arizona.

I suspect both may want to trade out, but the Giants hold the key with the #2 pick. Cleveland is taking at QB at 1, but will be willing to trade the #4 pick if the Giants do not want the extra assets that trading back will bring them!!!

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

When you factor in Kamara and Hunt's receiving yardage, they will produce ever more yards and there is zero chance Barkley returns kicks, no pro team is going to risk him getting injured doing that. No matter how you cut it, Barkley will only touch the ball slightly more that Kamara or Hunt and even if he approaches 2,000 yards on a yearly basis, he cannot match a QB's 4,000 yards and 25 to 35 TD's.

The NFL is a passing league, all the current rules make that perfectly clear and no team is likely to draft a RB in the top 5, before any top 5 QB is picked. I do not know how many QB's are so rated. If the Giants or Cleveland pass on a trade to draft Barkley, they are run by idiots, because the #2 pick is worth a ton to Buffalo, who will definitely overpay to get ahead of Denver and Arizona.

I suspect both may want to trade out, but the Giants hold the key with the #2 pick. Cleveland is taking at QB at 1, but will be willing to trade the #4 pick if the Giants do not want the extra assets that trading back will bring them!!!

Kamara & Hunt will get more receiving yards on their own for sure - but the gap between the top 3-down back won't be only 200 yards as you portrayed, between the very elite 3-down backs, and other 3-down backs.  That's the point @BleedTheClock was making, and it's not just sound, it's borne out year in and year out.  Kamara may in fact join those ranks of the 3-down do-it-all bellcow, if NO decides to move on from Ingram and get a more complementary back, rather than a full split in carries.    The point still stands, though.   The truly elite 3-down back is a huge difference-maker, much more than the 200 yards you suggested in the OP.  And if they are elite at running and pass-catching, then they are worth a top 1st round pick.      The NFL is indeed a passing league - which is why I only reserve the 1st-round worthy status to do-it-all 3-down backs who are true threats in the pass game.    Fournette, who is just OK in pass catching, and not a natural threat, wouldn't have qualified.  Even MG3, who catches the ball well (but isn't quite on the same level for running), wouldn't have qualified.   Bell & Kamara would now but only in hindsight - they wouldn't have out of college (Bell because at his college weight, didn't have the running chops, nor the same elusiveness, and Kamara, no one realized the balance and tackle-breaking ability he had as a runner).   But Barkley?  He's got it all - elite running, pass-catching, even blocking is near-elite.   So I'd count him in the very special company

Regardless, though, QB is certainly more valuable than RB.  Thats' not the argument, remember?  The original point I made - CLE has 1.4.   So it wasn't a question of QB or RB.   It's a question of which QB & Barkley vs. QB 1.1.   Saying QB is more valuable than RB, no one disputes - but CLE's situation doesn't make it QB vs. RB, either/or.     Having said that, though, we know QB is going 1.1 given Hyde is now in CLE - the whole advantage to taking Barkley is that you use him as a 3-down bellcow, and not timeshare him.  If you want to argue that teams will want to trade down if they're offered an insane return for the pick - no argument here.   That's a decision that's going to happen though independent of Barkley being there or not.  Barkley's argument to go RB 1.1 was solely on the unique situation where CLE could still get a top 3 QB and the value of the 3-down bellcow who's that special - not whether his value is as good as a franchise QB.   That's an argument for past draft decisions teams made in taking a RB over QB - not this one.  CLE's made it moot with Hyde's acquisition, though.  

Again, no one is arguing a franchise QB is more valuable than a RB, even a HoF-ceiling, elite 3-down runner & pass catcher (well I'm not anyways).   The team that takes Barkley already has a QB they feel good with in their mind (whether they actually do is another story).  But the max impact of the elite 3-down passcatching bellcow RB is far greater than 200 yards, which is what generated the latest round of discussion.  Which was your point.  And on that count there is no debate, it's far greater.  Again, it's not a QB vs. RB, pick only 1 - CLE had the choice of which QB, not deciding on a RB or a QB.