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Sell Me On The Guys I'm Not High On


BleedTheClock

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I'm going to put in a second request on Edmunds because I noticed no one has really tackled that one yet.

I keep hearing rumors the Colts love him so I'm trying to prepare myself.  I've been going back to the tape time and time again trying to have a eureka moment but it just isn't happening.  BTC, if you have a change of heart, let me know.  I need someone to explain his hype to me without using the words "nineteen" or  "freak of nature".

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13 minutes ago, bananabucket said:

I'm going to put in a second request on Edmunds because I noticed no one has really tackled that one yet.

I keep hearing rumors the Colts love him so I'm trying to prepare myself.  I've been going back to the tape time and time again trying to have a eureka moment but it just isn't happening.  BTC, if you have a change of heart, let me know.  I need someone to explain his hype to me without using the words "nineteen" or  "freak of nature".

Well, @bananabucket, here's what Mel Kiper, long-time draft guru and owner of an impressive hair-line has to say, vis-s-vis Edmunds slightly falling draft stock. The notion here is that he is an athletic marvel, yes (nineteen, freak of nature), but not as productive as one would expect from so gifted an athlete:

 

“Edmunds hasn’t really projected quite as high as many thought he would,” Kiper said on Wednesday. “I think what affects Edmunds is that he’s such a freakish talent, you’d expect more dominant play week in and week out. I don’t think teams necessarily saw that, even though he had over 100 tackles and made a lot of plays. He shows a lot of versatility.

As a junior in 2017, Edmunds was a productive linebacker. He finished the season with 109 total tackles, his second-straight season with 100 or more tackles. He also registered 14 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks, which is nothing to scoff at. However, Kiper said that with Edmunds’ natural talents, teams expected more production from him in his 29 career starts.

“I think maybe the freakish numbers worked against him in that regard,” Kiper said. “You thought he would be Lawrence Taylor out there, just making plays everywhere in every game, and it wasn’t the case. That’s why I have him dropping down to 12 to the Buffalo Bills. Roquan Smith from Georgia has moved a little bit ahead of him.”

 

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Me, I need to be sold on "Downtown" (all of it) Orlando Brown. I mean, I wanna embrace they guy as a prospect, but I just can't seem to be able to wrap my arms around him. He has a lot of physical stuff, but I'm not sure if he's got the guts!

Image result for fat football player

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1 minute ago, bzane said:

Me, I need to be sold on "Downtown" (all of it) Orlando Brown. I mean, I wanna embrace they guy as a prospect, but I just can't seem to be able to wrap my arms around him. He's has a lot of physical stuff, but I'm not sure if he's got the guts!

Image result for fat football player

Man I don't remember JaMarcus Russell ever being in that good of shape before.

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On 16/04/2018 at 11:16 AM, BleedTheClock said:

Uchenna Nwosu DE/LB USC

Luke Falk QB Washington State

 

John Kelly RB Tennessee

Kerryon Johnson RB Auburn

I'll try to tackle a few of these, but it may be tough...as i feel like i'm not exactly selling guys i'm super high on myself.  Just...higher than you probably.

Nwosu: He's a guy who can be disruptive off the edge, and that's always going to be valuable.  There are some schemes where he could play in certain 4-3 packages as a blitzing SAM, but i think probably his best value is just using him as a designated pass rushing 3-4 OLB as part of a rotation, without a lot else to worry about.  I really like the fit if he were to land in say...a Wade Phillips scheme with the Rams, where he could slip on and off the field and basically just run around and with the interior pressure they'll generate, probably just crash into some sacks by accident.  That said, i think he's a ~3rd round value because he is a bit of a 1-dimensional player and he's going to be a square peg in a lot of scheme fits, with some deficiencies as a finisher.  But he could pile up some sacks in a situation like that, or in a hybrid front young Bruce Irvin in Seattle type role.

Luke Falk:  Feel kinda weird trying to sell somebody on basically a backup QB project, but i do seem to like him more than most here.  He's got arguably some of the best short-intermediate touch, placement, and anticipation in this QB class.  Those are highly translatable skills, and he does it with one of the consistently prettier, tighter spun spirals that you'll see.  The number of passes he puts right on the money right in stride to facilitate those patented Air Raid RAC yards isn't just the scheme.  He's still putting the ball exactly where it needs to be, over and over and over again a billion times a game.  He's got some demonstrated arm endurance despite being a lighter guy, and cruddy weather experience.

It's a janky annoying scheme to evaluate in, but he executes it at an extremely high level...and with a lot more control and nuance than many of the other "failed Leach QBs" of yore.  Frankly, a lot of the same offensive concepts he's mastered at the collegiate level have been bleeding into the NFL for a while now.  He's one of those super clean workaholic film junkie "student of the game" types on top of that.  And he's won games, including some big ones vs big competition, as "the guy" bringing a program out of the cellar.

He does have a lot of work to do in his footwork under center, he looked super uncomfy through most of Sr Bowl week and it'll be a project.  Really needs to quicken up that internal clock in the pocket, especially since he has absolutely zilch beyond functional pocket mobility (though i think he's demonstrated some ability to slide around the pocket beyond what you get with most air raid QBs).  And his arm really falls off when it comes to driving balls deep which is always going to be a limitation.  I look at it like...he's got a similar arm to Rudolph coming out of a different, but equally deceptive system.  Falk is the guy who actually has the skillset to potentially translate better as a weaker-armed QB at the next level though, as a master of those shorter, underneath, timing concepts with precision.  The "distributor of the football" thing.  Whereas Rudolph is all about that whole vague, "lob it up deep right and let Washington do work"...which won't translate so well.

Kerryon/Kelly: I think these ones can probably be lumped together pretty simply, since it's largely the same argument/counterargument with both.  I know it's the AGE OF SPECIALIZATION or whatever, and you seem to have a pretty clearly expressed preference for backs who do one particular thing especially well...but i think there's still a ton of value in the proverbial "jack of all trades".  I still really like backs who you can throw out there on any snap, any down and distance, any playcall phoned in, and anything the QB might opt to check to at the line...and have them exhibit the well-rounded skillset with utility to make yards in that situation.  Versatility is sweet, because it masks intent and provides flexibility.  And i think both Johnson and Kelly have the right combination of skills to do pretty much anything you'd ask of a RB at a solid or better level.  They both show some power, physicality, and balance.  Some elusiveness in space.  Some ability to run routes and catch the ball, pass protect, and run inside or out.  Neither looks like a real "star RB"...but the league is moving away from that anyway.  To me, these look like two guys who are well equipped to fit into any kind of tandem and stay on the field for a lot of snaps giving you maybe an 8/10 value for whatever play might happen on any given snap.

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I disagree with Chubb. I think bull rushers get undervalued by fans relative to speed rushers because its less flashy on tape. I'm not saying he's a lock for DVMP but I put him in the Watt/Donald bucket of players who got underrated because they played with discipline, technique and pace in college. Tenacity is rather important at Dline, where its not uncommon to play fewer snaps, take plays off etc... He's my favorite prospect this class, especially if he goes at 4 and is paired with Garrett on the other side.

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21 hours ago, Teen Girl Squad said:

I disagree with Chubb. I think bull rushers get undervalued by fans relative to speed rushers because its less flashy on tape. I'm not saying he's a lock for DVMP but I put him in the Watt/Donald bucket of players who got underrated because they played with discipline, technique and pace in college. Tenacity is rather important at Dline, where its not uncommon to play fewer snaps, take plays off etc... He's my favorite prospect this class, especially if he goes at 4 and is paired with Garrett on the other side.

I know what you mean about Chubb ...  his bull rush is nasty and his hand fell fighting is superior 

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On 4/16/2018 at 6:16 PM, BleedTheClock said:

Bradley Chubb DE NC State

"He's a good player for sure. But I don't have him as being the best DE in the draft, nor do I think he's worthy of a top 10 pick. He wins with effort and hustle, but he doesn't really have an edge dip or a nasty bull rush. He's just tenacious. This will make him a great player against the run, but I don't see big pass rush productivity out of Chubb. If I'm taking a DE in the top 10, he better be able to generate double digit sacks consistently. I don't think that's Chubb. He's got almost 0 chance to bust, but he's nowhere near a superstar."

I kind of agree that more he's effort and hustle, than the type of pure pass rusher who can consistently win outside in the NFL. But then I see his 44 TFLs statline over the past two seasons and think most teams would probably really want that effort and hustle - even if it doesn't yield double digit sacks. The position is just so valuable and that level of dominance is rare. 

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2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

I kind of agree that more he's effort and hustle, than the type of pure pass rusher who can consistently win outside in the NFL. But then I see his 44 TFLs statline over the past two seasons and think most teams would probably really want that effort and hustle - even if it doesn't yield double digit sacks. The position is just so valuable and that level of dominance is rare. 

Is a bigger Brandon Graham that far off?

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