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2019 Draft Talk (Draft Order in OP)

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John Middlekauff of The Athletic poses an interesting scenario. I'm curious what folks think:

Let's say the Broncos finish with the 8th pick, we finish with the 1st. Broncos need a QB and want Herbert. They propose this trade:

Von Miller and #8

for

#1 and #33

Do you accept?

Keep in mind that Von Miller is 30 years old next year. Keep in mind that this draft is also deep for pass rusher and we could have Von Miller and #8 to rush the passer with Buckner and choose your 2nd DT. Lastly, keep in mind that trades up for a QB can be very profitable in terms of future first round draft picks. 

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Yes, I'd still do it. With the #8 pick we can then take someone like Baker or Greedy Williams and fill a need there. Von Miller is still going to be legit for another 3-4 years IMO. 

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1 hour ago, y2lamanaki said:

John Middlekauff of The Athletic poses an interesting scenario. I'm curious what folks think:

Let's say the Broncos finish with the 8th pick, we finish with the 1st. Broncos need a QB and want Herbert. They propose this trade:

Von Miller and #8

for

#1 and #33

Do you accept?

Keep in mind that Von Miller is 30 years old next year. Keep in mind that this draft is also deep for pass rusher and we could have Von Miller and #8 to rush the passer with Buckner and choose your 2nd DT. Lastly, keep in mind that trades up for a QB can be very profitable in terms of future first round draft picks. 

I read that article as well... It'd be a horrible trade for Denver given that the dead cap hit on Miller's contract is 28 milion next year. I can't imagine that they'd do that. 

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58 minutes ago, Forge said:

I read that article as well... It'd be a horrible trade for Denver given that the dead cap hit on Miller's contract is 28 milion next year. I can't imagine that they'd do that. 

It is a big cap hit, but moving to a rookie QB and moving from Miller would indicate the start of a rebuild anyway. They could quickly make room by moving on from Keenum/Sanders and that cap hit would be mainly confined to a dedicated rebuilding year. They could grab a less expensive vet QB to replace Keenum, and they could find their new longterm QB a replacement weapon with pick #33.

What they don't lose are more than the extra 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th they would  be figured to have to give up to move from #8 to #1 (or more than Philly gave up to get to #2 from #8) to pick their QB of the future. 

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26 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

It is a big cap hit, but moving to a rookie QB and moving from Miller would indicate the start of a rebuild anyway. They could quickly make room by moving on from Keenum/Sanders and that cap hit would be mainly confined to a dedicated rebuilding year. They could grab a less expensive vet QB to replace Keenum, and they could find their new longterm QB a replacement weapon with pick #33.

What they don't lose are more than the extra 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th they would  be figured to have to give up to move from #8 to #1 (or more than Philly gave up to get to #2 from #8) to pick their QB of the future. 

Yeah, but I've never heard of a team moving on from a player in a trade with a 28 million dollar dead money hit. It's more than his actual cap hit, so it costs them more to trade him than it does to keep him on the roster. Suh would be the closest with regards to a player being released, but they were also able to spread that out over two years, so it wasn't as catastrophic as all that.

Their team as a whole isn't that bad - the line and quarterback need some work of course, but I don't think they are close enough to being awful to hit full on rebuild button in such a way as to take that dead money hit. Elway also has to be feeling some pressure, and I can't imagine that now entering full on rebuild mode would help him feel safe and secure. I think he's more likely to part with future assets such as picks than he would be for Miller, given the penalty (after all, he won't care about the picks if he's not going to be there to make them anyway) and other factors. 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

Yeah, but I've never heard of a team moving on from a player in a trade with a 28 million dollar dead money hit. It's more than his actual cap hit, so it costs them more to trade him than it does to keep him on the roster

Are you certain about this? The number I keep seeing is $25 million and a cut saving them $6 million. Not a lot, but still something. 

And I get your point. But I don't see Elway as being in jeopardy, so I think the longterm benefits of dropping a player at 30 to focus on a rebuild makes sense. I would think trading picks would be the worse option anyway. A trade like this acknowledges you need a couple years to see young talent develop (including Chubb). Betting a ton of draft picks on the QB says "this is the missing piece." So another poor season guarantees a release...since the team would be bad and without draft assets needed to improve. 

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12 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Are you certain about this? The number I keep seeing is $25 million and a cut saving them $6 million. Not a lot, but still something. 

And I get your point. But I don't see Elway as being in jeopardy, so I think the longterm benefits of dropping a player at 30 to focus on a rebuild makes sense. I would think trading picks would be the worse option anyway. A trade like this acknowledges you need a couple years to see young talent develop (including Chubb). Betting a ton of draft picks on the QB says "this is the missing piece." So another poor season guarantees a release...since the team would be bad and without draft assets needed to improve. 

Yes - they restructured him earlier this year. OTC does not appear to be updated in the chart, but it mentions it in the description. He's got a 25 million cap hit, 28 million in dead money next year with the new restructure.

2019 Contract details by year 30 $17,000,000 $3,400,000 - $500,000 $4,225,000 - $25,125,000 $28,475,000 $17,500,000($78,500,000)  

POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 4 YR, $78,500,000; $11,850,000 DEAD CAP

2020 Contract details by year 31 $17,500,000 $3,400,000 - $500,000 $4,225,000 - $25,625,000 $11,850,000 $18,000,000($96,500,000)  
2021 Contract details by year 32 $17,500,000 - - $500,000 $4,225,000 - $22,225,000 $4,225,000 $18,000,000($114,500,000

 

***edit***

looks like one of these is wrong. OTC shows higher prorated SB section (19M) which I'm assuming is supposed to include the restructure. It looks like Spotrac is using some funky math, so possible that OTC is correct here and the dead cap hit is only 19 million. 

Based on what spotrac is showing, the dead money next year should be 3.4m x 2 + 4.225M x 3. That would equal 19.475. I think what spotrac is doing is including the portion of his base salary for 2019 that becomes guaranteed in March. Because of this, in the instance of a trade, this wouldn't apply to the dead cap, since we would pick that up. So it does appear to be correct that they would only incur about 19m dead cap. 

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3 hours ago, Forge said:

Yes - they restructured him earlier this year. OTC does not appear to be updated in the chart, but it mentions it in the description. He's got a 25 million cap hit, 28 million in dead money next year with the new restructure.

2019 Contract details by year 30 $17,000,000 $3,400,000 - $500,000 $4,225,000 - $25,125,000 $28,475,000 $17,500,000($78,500,000)  

POTENTIAL OUT: 2020, 4 YR, $78,500,000; $11,850,000 DEAD CAP

2020 Contract details by year 31 $17,500,000 $3,400,000 - $500,000 $4,225,000 - $25,625,000 $11,850,000 $18,000,000($96,500,000)  
2021 Contract details by year 32 $17,500,000 - - $500,000 $4,225,000 - $22,225,000 $4,225,000 $18,000,000($114,500,000

 

***edit***

looks like one of these is wrong. OTC shows higher prorated SB section (19M) which I'm assuming is supposed to include the restructure. It looks like Spotrac is using some funky math, so possible that OTC is correct here and the dead cap hit is only 19 million. 

Based on what spotrac is showing, the dead money next year should be 3.4m x 2 + 4.225M x 3. That would equal 19.475. I think what spotrac is doing is including the portion of his base salary for 2019 that becomes guaranteed in March. Because of this, in the instance of a trade, this wouldn't apply to the dead cap, since we would pick that up. So it does appear to be correct that they would only incur about 19m dead cap. 

Eh...it's all confusing to me anyway. If offered, would you take the trade?

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26 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Eh...it's all confusing to me anyway. If offered, would you take the trade?

It comes with some risk, but I'd be inclined to and just hope that he holds up. Certainly putting a clock on our window though. I'd still want us to be a bit aggressive in free agency for a year or two to solve some other woes. 

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I would want some more draft capital back as the 49ers. Getting possibly a 4th or 5th in return would go along ways imo. Giving up a second and taking on 28 million (albeit deserved) from a 30 year old DE is a tall order. That said, DE's that use bend and power like Von does tend to age very well. 

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6 minutes ago, John232 said:

I would want some more draft capital back as the 49ers. Getting possibly a 4th or 5th in return would go along ways imo. Giving up a second and taking on 28 million (albeit deserved) from a 30 year old DE is a tall order. That said, DE's that use bend and power like Von does tend to age very well. 

Our responsibility would only be 17-18/m per year for the next three. My preference would be to give the following year's second round pick back if we could do that. With pick 33, you could easily grab another starter for a team with a lot of holes, so I like the idea of getting Miller, a starter at 8, a starter at 33. But free agency is a big factor in this as well. May not be necessary if we are players there. 

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On ‎10‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 9:26 AM, y2lamanaki said:

John Middlekauff of The Athletic poses an interesting scenario. I'm curious what folks think:

Let's say the Broncos finish with the 8th pick, we finish with the 1st. Broncos need a QB and want Herbert. They propose this trade:

Von Miller and #8

for

#1 and #33

Do you accept?

Keep in mind that Von Miller is 30 years old next year. Keep in mind that this draft is also deep for pass rusher and we could have Von Miller and #8 to rush the passer with Buckner and choose your 2nd DT. Lastly, keep in mind that trades up for a QB can be very profitable in terms of future first round draft picks. 

So looking at past trades, doing kind of a combo of these two deals...

No. 1: Tennessee → Los Angeles (PD). Tennessee traded its first-, fourth-, and sixth-round selections (1st, 113th, and 177th) to Los Angeles in exchange for Los Angeles's first-round, two second-round, and third-round selections in this year's draft (15th, 43rd, 45th, and 76th) as well as Los Angeles's first- and third-round selections in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Kind of rounding a little bit Tennesee received 3 1sts and a 3rd for trading down (2- 2nds equal a 1st, one of the thirds cancels by the 4th and 7ths back) from 1st to 15th.

No. 2: Cleveland → Philadelphia (PD). Cleveland traded this selection (2nd) and a conditional fifth-round selection in 2017 (this selection would be upgraded to a compensatory fourth-round selection if the Browns receive one in 2017) to Philadelphia in exchange for Philadelphia's first-round, third-round, and fourth-round selections in this years draft (8th, 77th, and 100th) as well as Philadelphia's first-round selection in the 2017 NFL Draft and second-round selection in the 2018 NFL Draft

Rounding a bit in this one basically the Browns received 3 1sts in compensation going from 2nd to 8th.

So in general going from 1st to 8th you should receive 3 1st rounders in compensation, especially in a small QB draft like this one is shaping up to be. Next step is how do you value Miller? Fantastic player, I'd love to have him. But is he worth 2 firsts? Khalil went to the bears for less than that (barely, but less with kickers returned to the bears) and he is younger. Even if for argument sake you do place a 2 first round value on him, add in the 8th back you are still looking at equal compensation in my opinion without adding the high second in return.

I don't think this trade would work on multiple levels including the dead money issues as have already been discussed in the thread, value to each team and I don't think it is very probable that we will end up with the first pick when all is said and done. Fun thinking exercise though and sorry if my stream of consciousness writing is unintelligible.

Edited by Ftn49

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