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BullsandBroncos

Broncos decline Shane Ray's Option

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3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, I get that's likely what drove the reasoning.     The risk is so low, though.    There's no doubt recency bias kicked in - people are influenced by their last experience (in this case, Watson not being able to pass his March 2018 physical no doubt spooked Elway).   For a guy that says he's not afraid to swing for the fences - this was a  very un-Elway like decision.    Ray has no risk that's long-term.  So it's an irrational over-valuation of risk - in a GM that's welcomed taking far bigger risks.  But it's also human nature (and yes, the consequences with our cap situation would be dire - just the probability is so low).   I get it.

Do you or anyone have any details regarding the March date physicals? I'm curious if a player can in any way influence it.

 

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1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Do you or anyone have any details regarding the March date physicals? I'm curious if a player can in any way influence it.

 

Do you mean the dates in question?  Those are negotiated for FA but for 5th year options for Rd 1 it’s standard.   

If it’s the info in the physicals it’s all confidential.   

 

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33 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Do you mean the dates in question?  Those are negotiated for FA but for 5th year options for Rd 1 it’s standard.   

If it’s the info in the physicals it’s all confidential.   

 

No, more like he takes the physical, Dr. says "does it hurt when you do this", you do that and scream in pain, the DR. says okay, you failed the physical.

Something more like that.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

No, more like he takes the physical, Dr. says "does it hurt when you do this", you do that and scream in pain, the DR. says okay, you failed the physical.

Something more like that.

Yeah that info isn’t allowed to be published.  But to fail a physical when it hurts the team, it has to be objective.   The team doc is going to pass guys without hard objective findings.  

Unless of course you are BAL and Ryan Grant is taking the physical 2 hours after Michael Crabtree gets released lol.   Then the team doc sides again with the team (note the theme lol).    

It’s why players and agents often request a second opinion from an independent specialist when they are told good news.   It’s just human nature getting bad news for players to be in denial and ask for a 2nd opinion.   But when getting good news, players & agents who ask for an outside opinion can’t help but wonder if there’s bias - and with some teams it’s very much warranted (e.g. NO medical staff missed Delvin Breaux’s fracture last offseason, for weeks they told coaches he’s fine - big oops ).  

Anyways - depending on the injury it would be easy to predict if Watson couldn’t pass by March (e.g. labrum, etc.).    DEN wouldn’t have let him fail if it was iffy.  Failing him if it was in a team’s benefit, though...

 

Edited by Broncofan

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16 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

Also not sure Ray's growth from rookie to sophomore year was really all that significant as I keep reading. He was still a liability against the run, and his leap in sack count corresponded to his snap count doubling. Not sure about pressure rates and such but I didn't ever find myself thinking "wow, he's really come into his own". I think he kind of is who he was coming into the league. He was a pro-ready situational pass rusher and that's probably what he'll always be. A nice role player who can still strike it rich in a league that values his position second to only QBs. 

Maybe I have an overly pessimistic view of Ray the player, but even his flashes have never wowed me. I still think it made more sense to give him that 5th year option knowing it makes him more attractive trade bait and that you more than likely rescind it a year later, but I don't think he would be a big loss. I'd take a 2019 4th for him and see what Holland can do. 

I agree with this. I've never seen him as a really impressive talent. Most of his sacks have been clean up. 

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Posted (edited)

Well this likely makes the decision moot - it appears Ray needs surgery on the wrist again.

The problem if that's true and it’s a re-injury - much like the first injury, it's going to sap his wrist's full strength for a good 4-6 months, so while he'd be ready to play, not nearly at 100 percent.   Now, surgery now probably would allow him to return to play even for Week 1 if all went accordingly to plan, and he'd pass a March 2019 physical without reinjury, so the call to decline the 5th year option now looks like it's not going to be a decision that hurts us either way.   

As much as I've bagged on Elway's draft record, I can't bag on him for Ray Rd1 as an outright bust because of lack of talent evaluation alone - injury certainly derailed Ray here.   But it's fair to say even if you give this an injury flag, Ray still ends up now as a bust pick for Elway.  

I'd also think unless Jeff Holland pulls a major faceplant in TC, that he's got an excellent chance to make the 53-man roster (even if Ray doesn't require the PUP).  This also really sucks because it pretty much kills any trade value for Ray this year now, and the likelihood he can't do much to help means trading Barrett is extremely unwise for us depth-wise at EDGE, at least until we know 2018 is a lost season (i.e. no way it happens now or in TC, maybe in-season if we get off to a slow start).   Double-whammy - could lose Barrett & Ray at the end of the year, and get little to nothing in return.   

Edited by Broncofan

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Broadly speaking, I don't view freak injury type things that ultimately derail a guy as a "bust." Jarvis Moss was a bust. He just wasn't good. Ray has talent, but when you're injured, you're injured. He was considered widely a Top 10 or, by some, a Top 5 player. He was the right pick at the time, even if it didn't work out.

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I think Ray's play in 2015-16 was pretty disappointing overall. Not on the trajectory of an outright bust, but far from a hit. 

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3 hours ago, broncos67 said:

Broadly speaking, I don't view freak injury type things that ultimately derail a guy as a "bust." Jarvis Moss was a bust. He just wasn't good. Ray has talent, but when you're injured, you're injured. He was considered widely a Top 10 or, by some, a Top 5 player. He was the right pick at the time, even if it didn't work out.

Yeah, I’m certainly not going to say Elway made a bad evaluation talent wise here, unlike with his past Day 2 whiffs or going need early.    Sometimes bad luck happens can’t do much about that.  

It’s fair to say he was disappointing in 2015-16 overall.   It just sucks with the injury now we probably get nothing impactful for the investment.   Hard to see any trade interest for him now.   

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Maybe he needs to jerk it a bit more...strengthen that wrist up a bit...no surgery needed.  Do that thing organically...I mean, he could do so thinking about Chad Kelly being the starting QB.  

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10 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

Maybe he needs to jerk it a bit more...strengthen that wrist up a bit...no surgery needed.  Do that thing organically...I mean, he could do so thinking about Chad Kelly being the starting QB.  

No hes thinking about Butts jake Butts, Seymore Butts whatever 

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