2018 Draft Eligible QB Thread

[Tugboat]

15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Agree with Aztec. Do you really think we screwed Brandon Weeden, Cody Kessler, Brady Quinn, and Johnny Manziel up? You believe that if they were drafted by the Bengals, as a random example, they would have been stars? It's not the development of the players; it's the terribleness of the players selected.

Yeah.  I don't think the Browns have really "ruined" a bunch of great talents or anything.  Seems the issue is more just that they're continually investing in guys with major flaws which quickly prove fatal.  Which generates a bunch of disruption and instability through the rest of the organization (which generally seems to create enough of that themselves).

All it takes is one "hit" though, one guy to overcome their fatal flaw...and everything is just peachy in Cleveland.

[Zed Rational]

Don't look now, but Josh Allen rallied his team to a victory over Utah State this past weekend. I will be shocked if he isn't taken in the first round, and I wouldn't be surprised if ten years down the road he isn't the best quarterback to come out of this draft. 

[mikee]

Mayfield honestly reminds me most of Case Keenum. With a bit more upside perhaps. Similar size and athleticism. Both have a ton of NCAA experience and starts under their belts. Rather than being a borderline starter, I think Mayfield can be a full time starter.

[Iamcanadian]

On 10/11/2017 at 9:11 PM, Ozzy said:

Maybe but Trubisky and Josh Allen in terms of production right now are no were near the same.  Trubisky played a little those first two years in college, but that JR year had 280 and 2 TDs against Stanford in the bowl game, 280 and 3 against NC State, 405 and 3 against FSU, 299 and 2 against Miami and 453 and 5 against Pitt.  Not great outings against VT and Georgia but still he is playing way more impressive competition and actually producing unlike Josh Allen so far this year.  Sure maybe if Allen puts up 300-400 yard games against this weak competition coming up in their schedule but he has a long ways to go to even accomplish that.  

Sure some players are drafted on potential but almost all of them produce and are proven, especially in that year they declare.  This is not the NBA in terms of teams drafted completely on potential alone.  College football is basically a minor league for the NFL and proven players get picked.  Even potential players still flashed and showed a lot in terms of ability and production at least for a year.  

 

Last years draft was odd in the fact that many players were in many ways a one year wonder, or had only one year of being extremely productive and or playing at a high level or starting at all.  Guys like Trubisky, TJ Watt, Lattimore, McKinley and Ramczyk.  So far TJ Watt looks like a stud and not surprising, Trubisky looked impressive at times with throws he made but that WR core is so bad and the OL is not great he could get really beat up this year.  And the rest still have a ways to go, Ramczyk looks ok but got beat in pass pro more than once.  That trend could continue but I doubt it with that many one year production guys being picked that high.  Maybe Deontay Burnett on USC but still he is a borderline 1st rounder and flashed years before, or Roquan Smith but really he is pretty solid last year also.  So honestly I cannot think of any flash player on one year success in the up coming draft at the moment like last years group.   

 

I think teams like Alabama, Ohio St., Clemson and Florida St. which dominate college recruiting are always going to have players waiting in the wings to be 1st year starters who have great pro potential and could be 1st rounders and I doubt that will change anytime soon.

Here's Kiper pre season draft prospect list for QB's and it pretty well matches up with Bucky Brooks list and other reputable people's lists and it lists Allen as the #2 prospect at QB. http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/19351953/mel-kiper-way-too-early-2018-nfl-draft-rankings-top-prospects-every-position  

Of course, it is not fixed in stone and players will rise and fall as their final season progresses, but basically it it suggests Allen has a very high ceiling and teams are going to watch him closely to see how he develops. College stats can be misleading depending on which system a team plays, how good a team they play on, what skill players they have around them, etc. etc. etc. All these factors have to be looked at not just college production.

Players like Allen will make or break their draft position at the Combine or pro days, this is where small college prospects get an opportunity to shine and show they can compete with the big name college prospects. Until then, it is all supposition as to whom will come out on top. So we will just have to wait for their verdict.

 

Here a current ranking by some 8 NFL scouts on the current crop of QB's with Allen still at #3 overall in their voting.  https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/17/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-qb-rankings-sam-darnold-josh-rosen-lamar-jackson-josh-allen

One scout out of 8 NFL scouts had him ahead of Darnold and one scout had him ahead of Rosen. He is as raw as they come, but the potential to develop is something special. The talent around him this season is extremely young and playing for Wyoming, you know it isn't all that good, so I think you have to give him some slack and wait for the Combine and/or his pro day, to reach a final assessment. Maybe your are right and he is overrated or maybe the scouts are correct and all he needs is time to develop and added experience to reach his potential. Draft day will be interesting to watch via this guy.

[Zed Rational]

I have a feeling that some of Josh Allen's critics have scanned the box scores and the stat sheets but haven't actually seen him play, or at least haven't seen him play recently. Here's a highlight reel from his game this past Saturday against Utah State: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFhabjUJ04

Granted, it IS a highlight tape, which means it only shows his good plays and none of his bad ones, but by watching it you can get an idea of the tools that he brings to the game. His passes are effortless, and, down the stretch with the game on the line, he was extremely accurate down the field. His skills are exceptional; he just needs some polish. Maybe not a rookie starter, but a little down the road I think he can be a franchise quarterback. 

Not only will he be drafted in the first round, but, in my opinion, he is more than deserving.

[Oregon Ducks]

18 minutes ago, Zed Rational said:

I have a feeling that some of Josh Allen's critics have scanned the box scores and the stat sheets but haven't actually seen him play, or at least haven't seen him play recently. Here's a highlight reel from his game this past Saturday against Utah State: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFhabjUJ04

Granted, it IS a highlight tape, which means it only shows his good plays and none of his bad ones, but by watching it you can get an idea of the tools that he brings to the game. His passes are effortless, and, down the stretch with the game on the line, he was extremely accurate down the field. His skills are exceptional; he just needs some polish. Maybe not a rookie starter, but a little down the road I think he can be a franchise quarterback. 

Not only will he be drafted in the first round, but, in my opinion, he is more than deserving.

I watched him against Oregon. He looked like a walk-on playing against pro players.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, Zed Rational said:

I have a feeling that some of Josh Allen's critics have scanned the box scores and the stat sheets but haven't actually seen him play, or at least haven't seen him play recently. Here's a highlight reel from his game this past Saturday against Utah State: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFhabjUJ04

Granted, it IS a highlight tape, which means it only shows his good plays and none of his bad ones, but by watching it you can get an idea of the tools that he brings to the game. His passes are effortless, and, down the stretch with the game on the line, he was extremely accurate down the field. His skills are exceptional; he just needs some polish. Maybe not a rookie starter, but a little down the road I think he can be a franchise quarterback. 

Not only will he be drafted in the first round, but, in my opinion, he is more than deserving.

That's the problem with using highlight tapes to break down prospects. Just watching Shane Morris' game against Kansas, dude looked like an All-Pro. Almost every player is going to put together a play or even a string of plays that leave you thinking "wow". Josh Allen got a ton of hype based on 1 season (happens all the time) that still wasn't particularly exceptional. Not saying his future will turn out the same, but it is essentially Christian Hackenberg all over again- everyone talks about his tools and what not one year because he's the new flavor but as time goes on, the great plays look more like an anomaly than what you're actually getting. While the talent level around Allen at Wyoming is certainly nothing to write home about, he doesn't generally appear to be elevating the play of those around him very much at all. My guess is he'll wind up either falling a bit (Mid-3rd round) or being over-drafted (top 10), but I have him as a late 2nd/early 3rd rounder at this point, team needs/draft positioning notwithstanding. 

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Zed Rational said:

I have a feeling that some of Josh Allen's critics have scanned the box scores and the stat sheets but haven't actually seen him play, or at least haven't seen him play recently. Here's a highlight reel from his game this past Saturday against Utah State: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbFhabjUJ04

Granted, it IS a highlight tape, which means it only shows his good plays and none of his bad ones, but by watching it you can get an idea of the tools that he brings to the game. His passes are effortless, and, down the stretch with the game on the line, he was extremely accurate down the field. His skills are exceptional; he just needs some polish. Maybe not a rookie starter, but a little down the road I think he can be a franchise quarterback. 

Not only will he be drafted in the first round, but, in my opinion, he is more than deserving.

Nobody.  And I mean nobody underestimates his tools.  It's the down-to-down issues that are causing issues with their evaluation.  I mean, there's plenty of his "game tape" floating around, and there's not one where the box score lied to us.  He's not an accurate passer, and his season completion percentage confirms it.  His decision making is shaky, and the box score shows us that.  He's a HUGE risk to be drafting early.

[CWood21]

12 hours ago, Zed Rational said:

Don't look now, but Josh Allen rallied his team to a victory over Utah State this past weekend. I will be shocked if he isn't taken in the first round, and I wouldn't be surprised if ten years down the road he isn't the best quarterback to come out of this draft. 

If Josh Allen played like he did against Utah State all season long, he'd be a 1st round pick.  But then you watch that Oregon and Hawaii game, and he's borderline draftable.  There's legitimately no consistency to his game.  And that's got to be a part of your evaluation process.

[CWood21]

12 hours ago, mikee said:

Mayfield honestly reminds me most of Case Keenum. With a bit more upside perhaps. Similar size and athleticism. Both have a ton of NCAA experience and starts under their belts. Rather than being a borderline starter, I think Mayfield can be a full time starter.

He's definitely more talented than Case Keenum.  Every time I watch him, I get two different feelings.  My heart says that he's going to find a way succeed.  Whether it be his playing style or his personality or the road he's made to come here, but my brain says he goes against everything that I've believed to be important at the QB position.  He's accurate, makes quick, decisive reads, and for the most part makes good decisions.  And it's not like he's playing with a ton of future 1st round picks, outside of maybe Mark Andrews and possibly Orlando Brown.  My guess is he'll get a 3rd round grade, which is somewhere close to where I had Johnny Manziel.  But he's Manziel with less off-the-field concerns.

[CalhounLambeau]

7 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Josh Allen is Cam Newton, with a little less athleticism.

Such a dumb comparison.

[Scoundrel]

35 minutes ago, CalhounLambeau said:

Such a dumb comparison.

Way to make the forum an inviting place for people to post their ideas and opinions.

[Zed Rational]

9 hours ago, CWood21 said:

If Josh Allen played like he did against Utah State all season long, he'd be a 1st round pick.  But then you watch that Oregon and Hawaii game, and he's borderline draftable.  There's legitimately no consistency to his game.  And that's got to be a part of your evaluation process.

Let's see what he does for the rest of the season. Young players have been known to get better the more they play. Consistency comes with time. But a quarterback who can throw those passes and lead his otherwise over-matched team to a comeback victory in the fourth quarter can't be dismissed. He'll not only be a first-round pick, but he'll get picked in the first half of the first round. 

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Zed Rational said:

Let's see what he does for the rest of the season. Young players have been known to get better the more they play. Consistency comes with time. But a quarterback who can throw those passes and lead his otherwise over-matched team to a comeback victory in the fourth quarter can't be dismissed. He'll not only be a first-round pick, but he'll get picked in the first half of the first round. 

And I don't mind this train of thought.  But it's the small faction that believe he's a 1st round pick based on what he's done thus because of his "traits".  It's mind boggling that after we saw Christian Hackenberg do what he did at Penn State still go in the 2nd round, and now he can't even get on the field with the Jets.  And if a GM is willing to select him in the first half of the first round, he's probably going to be out of a job in a few years.

[ronjon1990]

I'm sure he's been brought up before, but what are you guys' thoughts on Riley Ferguson? 

Having watched a few games, I really like his mobility and he often finds ways to extend plays (like tonight against Houston). His size scares me a bit though (6-4ish but only 210 without a very large frame) and he does seem to have fairly streaky accuracy. Based on what I've seen of him though, I'd take him in the mid-late 4th as a flyer. Too early? Too late?