Super Bowl LIII: What Do You Think Will Happen and What Do You Want To Happen?

[Reginaldm9]

Expectation: Saints over Chargers

Wishlist: Browns over Seattle Supersonics 

[mcmurtry86]

Lot of people overrating the Pats this year. They're likely one and done in the playoffs

[Hunter2_1]

43 minutes ago, mcmurtry86 said:

Lot of people overrating the Pats this year. They're likely one and done in the playoffs

What do you base this on?

[mcmurtry86]

57 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

What do you base this on?

Absolutely no depth on offense, especially at WR. Counting on an old, beat up and recovering from major surgery Edelman and Gronkowski to stay healthy and productive until February is a dangerous proposition. If either guy goes down, they won't be able to move the ball consistently. Not well enough to beat good or even decent defenses like Jacksonville, maybe LA or Houston. We've seen that story before. It's easily the worst offensive group the Pats have had (factoring in starters AND depth players) in years.

On top of that, they're thin at OL with a potentially very weak left side of the line (Thuney is average at best and Brown is unknown as a LT)

Lastly, they've done little to nothing to improve their weakest spots on D (interior rush, covering RB in the pass game). As with offense, their strategy seems to be to hope their key player (Hightower) doesn't get hurt despite a history of getting banged up. If he misses time, that D will be a sieve against good offenses like it was in the Super Bowl. And no, a 5th round pick (Bentley) is not a solution until he actually proves something other than looking ok in camp 

They're weaker everywhere they were strong last year, weaker at a weak spot (CB since Jason McCourty looks cooked and they haven't replaced Butler who was usually solid if not better), unimproved at rush DT and LB and are relying heavily on Gronk, Edelman and Hightower staying healthy. 

Any Pats fan who feels good about  those 3 playing 17-20 games (or 13-16 for PED Edelman) is a wide eyed optimist 

I think their entire offseason blew up in their face when their top 2 picks got hurt and the guys they tried to replace Cooks and Edelman with have all been released or put on IR.

Brady can overcome a lot but I don't see how this team, if they withstand any injuries on offense, will move the ball adequately in the playoffs. It's very 2010, 2013 to me. Might win a lot of games and score points in the regular season but will be plagued by inconsistency on both sides of the ball which will cost them against good teams 

 

[SBLIII]

2 hours ago, mcmurtry86 said:

Lot of people overrating the Pats this year. They're likely one and done in the playoffs

It's possibly but unlikely. Since Tom Brady got drafted the Patriots only played 1 playoff game in a season twice. 

[mcmurtry86]

1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

It's possibly but unlikely. Since Tom Brady got drafted the Patriots only played 1 playoff game in a season twice. 

That's irrelevant unless you're replaying those same games with the same players. 

Its a weak roster relative to their recent standard and its weak in areas which are very problematic given their track record of disappointing finishes when the offense is limited due to lack of receiving and OL talent 

 

If Gronk and Hightower are healthy and Edelman is healthy and in pre-injury form, they're the AFC favorites. But I don't see how abt reasonable person could expect those 3 guys to hold up and be excellent all year. Their awful WR depth means more targets and more forced balls to Edelman and Gronk which, in turn, means more exposure to injury for them

They're a very good team on paper today with their top 25 players. It's the thinnest roster I've seen in years from the Pats though and I think that will haunt them all year. 

Yes, every team is screwed if their top guy goes down, however most teams aren't overly reliant upon 3 guys with the injury history of the Pats trio. 

 

[BayRaider]

What I want: Raiders over Rams

Would be an amazing offensive battle. 

What I think will happen? Packers over Steelers.

Seems to be a popular pick here as well and it makes sense. I question the Steelers defense to make it that far though. If they can't stop the pass like most years, they won't. 

AFC is interesting. I don't think the Pats make it this year, Steelers questionable defense. It's entirely possible IMO that one of these four could make it in: Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans (I see them as a 7-8 win team but if Watson performs at a high level with that defense, it's possible), Oakland Raiders, and dare I say it, the Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers have a sick squad on paper this season. Not a fan of their coaching staff to make a deep playoff run though. 

 

[game3525]

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AFC is interesting. I don't think the Pats make it this year, Steelers questionable defense. It's entirely possible IMO that one of these four could make it in: Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans (I see them as a 7-8 win team but if Watson performs at a high level with that defense, it's possible), Oakland Raiders, and dare I say it, the Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers have a sick squad on paper this season. Not a fan of their coaching staff to make a deep playoff run though. 

I don't see how you can slip Oakland in there and leave the Chiefs out. Say what you want about Andy Reid, but his team wins 9-11 games every year and they should be the favorites to win the west until proven otherwise. 

[BayRaider]

Just now, game3525 said:

I don't see how you can slip Oakland in there and leave the Chiefs out. Say what you want about Andy Reid, but his team wins 9-11 games every year and they should be the favorites to win the west until proven otherwise. 

Mahomes first year starting... plus really not a fan of what I've seen from him. Chiefs 8-8 this year IMO. 

[game3525]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Mahomes first year starting... plus really not a fan of what I've seen from him. Chiefs 8-8 this year IMO. 

Mahomes looks pretty good to me. He will throw some picks, but that offense has enough talent to win 9-10 games. On top of that their special team unit should be top notch as usually and the defense should be a little bit better. 

 

[Hunter2_1]

19 hours ago, mcmurtry86 said:

Absolutely no depth on offense, especially at WR. Counting on an old, beat up and recovering from major surgery Edelman and Gronkowski to stay healthy and productive until February is a dangerous proposition. If either guy goes down, they won't be able to move the ball consistently. Not well enough to beat good or even decent defenses like Jacksonville, maybe LA or Houston. We've seen that story before. It's easily the worst offensive group the Pats have had (factoring in starters AND depth players) in years.

I can't remember the depth chart at the time, but you reckon this lot are worse than the Caldwell, Brown and Graham years? circa 2006? 

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Lastly, they've done little to nothing to improve their weakest spots on D (interior rush, covering RB in the pass game). As with offense, their strategy seems to be to hope their key player (Hightower) doesn't get hurt despite a history of getting banged up. If he misses time, that D will be a sieve against good offenses like it was in the Super Bowl. And no, a 5th round pick (Bentley) is not a solution until he actually proves something other than looking ok in camp 

Yep, but i'd argue its a slight improvement on last year's sh-show, with the additions we've got - we've added pass rush whichever way you slice it, with Clayborn and RIvers coming back. Shelton offers some beef in the middle. It does kind of live and die by Hightower, but we ended up being in the top 3-5 points allowed last year without his services. I don't expect our D to be as leaky as last season, and I expect it to be a lot more aggressive (not saying that is better).

OL is certainly thin, but I can't see it deteriorating to DeGugliemlo 2015 levels with Scar taking control. Pre-Wynn injury I was happy with it, and I do expect Brown to be every bit, if not better, than 2017 Solder. We're also returning Canon and Mason is in contract year (if that's worth anything)

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They're are relying heavily on Gronk, Edelman and Hightower staying healthy. 

You could argue we've relied on them for 3-5 years or so. You're always going to miss a Gronk or Hightower, I'm not sure the depth has ever been able to close to gap.

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Any Pats fan who feels good about  those 3 playing 17-20 games (or 13-16 for PED Edelman) is a wide eyed optimist 

I think their entire offseason blew up in their face when their top 2 picks got hurt and the guys they tried to replace Cooks and Edelman with have all been released or put on IR.

Brady can overcome a lot but I don't see how this team, if they withstand any injuries on offense, will move the ball adequately in the playoffs. It's very 2010, 2013 to me. Might win a lot of games and score points in the regular season but will be plagued by inconsistency on both sides of the ball which will cost them against good teams 

 

 

Ultimately, if we're talking likelihood - it's likely the Pats aren't one a done, as that would represent a drop-off from recent years. Talent is certainly questionable, but we've gone to the superbowl with questionable talent before. I don't expect SB, but I would be disappointed with one and done, IF Brady is the same.

[megatechpc]

15 hours ago, mcmurtry86 said:

Absolutely no depth on offense, especially at WR. Counting on an old, beat up and recovering from major surgery Edelman and Gronkowski to stay healthy and productive until February is a dangerous proposition. If either guy goes down, they won't be able to move the ball consistently. Not well enough to beat good or even decent defenses like Jacksonville, maybe LA or Houston. We've seen that story before. It's easily the worst offensive group the Pats have had (factoring in starters AND depth players) in years.

On top of that, they're thin at OL with a potentially very weak left side of the line (Thuney is average at best and Brown is unknown as a LT)

Lastly, they've done little to nothing to improve their weakest spots on D (interior rush, covering RB in the pass game). As with offense, their strategy seems to be to hope their key player (Hightower) doesn't get hurt despite a history of getting banged up. If he misses time, that D will be a sieve against good offenses like it was in the Super Bowl. And no, a 5th round pick (Bentley) is not a solution until he actually proves something other than looking ok in camp 

They're weaker everywhere they were strong last year, weaker at a weak spot (CB since Jason McCourty looks cooked and they haven't replaced Butler who was usually solid if not better), unimproved at rush DT and LB and are relying heavily on Gronk, Edelman and Hightower staying healthy. 

Any Pats fan who feels good about  those 3 playing 17-20 games (or 13-16 for PED Edelman) is a wide eyed optimist 

I think their entire offseason blew up in their face when their top 2 picks got hurt and the guys they tried to replace Cooks and Edelman with have all been released or put on IR.

Brady can overcome a lot but I don't see how this team, if they withstand any injuries on offense, will move the ball adequately in the playoffs. It's very 2010, 2013 to me. Might win a lot of games and score points in the regular season but will be plagued by inconsistency on both sides of the ball which will cost them against good teams 

 

The elephant in the room with regard to the Patriots is the fact that Brady is 41 freaking years old.  I know Pats fans want to totally deny reality when it comes to Brady (because he has basically denied reality on the field for the past 2 years), but the decline WILL happen, and it looms over this organization like the grim reaper.  I don't know if this will be the year time finally catches up to Brady, but I'd guess its likely he starts to show signs at least.  Obviously, even 75% of Brady over the last few years is still really good, but the Pats team surrounding him is especially thin on raw talent so its conceivable that the Patriots slip to the 10-6 or 11-5 range and not even get a first round bye this year.  

I'm not saying Brady will definitely decline this year (because I honestly was surprised at how good he played last year) but every year he gets older the chances of his play falling off dramatically increases exponentially.  I don't buy into his trainer's crap (Guerrero) for one minute and give all the credit for Brady's age-defying play to Brady himself, but pure will and determination has its limits and we are about to see those limits push back in a big way within the next 12-24 months.  I truly believe that.

[megatechpc]

On 8/24/2018 at 12:52 PM, game3525 said:

I don't see how you can slip Oakland in there and leave the Chiefs out. Say what you want about Andy Reid, but his team wins 9-11 games every year and they should be the favorites to win the west until proven otherwise. 

I've already said that I think the AFC SB team this year will actually NOT be NE or Pittsburgh, despite the fact that they are the obvious favorites (for entirely understandable reasons).  I just think that there are several other far younger and very talented teams in the AFC this year that have a very good shot of making it to the big dance.  The AFC South in particular is very interesting to me as I really think they will end up being the second toughest division in football.  Jacksonville obviously got within a quarter of the SB last year despite Bortles' struggles (though he played well against both the Steelers and Pats), the Texans are getting Deshaun Watson back and we all saw what he did in the 7 games he played in (caveat of course being the small sample size and returning from an ACL which can be very challenging), the Titans also won a playoff game last year despite an extremely disappointing season from Mariota, and the Colts have Luck back finally (no guarantees he'll still be the same player he once was of course, but if he is they should win 10 games this year and be a PITA for any opponent they face in the playoffs).  Then you look at other possibly strong challengers in the AFC such as the Chargers (who should've made the playoffs last year if not for the yearly shooting themselves in the foot early on), the Broncos (who still have an elite defense and have unquestionably upgraded their biggest weakness since the SB which is starting QB, regardless of how you feel about Case Keenum), the Chiefs (who I think will really miss Alex Smith but who still have Andy Reid and won the AFC West last year), and finally the Ravens (a team that has one of the best young defenses out there and a newly motivated and finally fully healthy Flacco who knows he must perform this year to hang on to his job).  

Considering the overall talent on the Texan's roster, if Watson plays a full season anywhere close to as well as he played his first 7 games last year I think they will end up representing the AFC in the SB this year.  This post (and Tom Brady) may end up making me eat my words come February, 2019 for sure, but I strongly believe the Pats and Steelers will not be there on SB Sunday and I'll stick to that prediction.

[mcmurtry86]

17 hours ago, megatechpc said:

The elephant in the room with regard to the Patriots is the fact that Brady is 41 freaking years old.  I know Pats fans want to totally deny reality when it comes to Brady (because he has basically denied reality on the field for the past 2 years), but the decline WILL happen, and it looms over this organization like the grim reaper.  I don't know if this will be the year time finally catches up to Brady, but I'd guess its likely he starts to show signs at least.  Obviously, even 75% of Brady over the last few years is still really good, but the Pats team surrounding him is especially thin on raw talent so its conceivable that the Patriots slip to the 10-6 or 11-5 range and not even get a first round bye this year.  

I'm not saying Brady will definitely decline this year (because I honestly was surprised at how good he played last year) but every year he gets older the chances of his play falling off dramatically increases exponentially.  I don't buy into his trainer's crap (Guerrero) for one minute and give all the credit for Brady's age-defying play to Brady himself, but pure will and determination has its limits and we are about to see those limits push back in a big way within the next 12-24 months.  I truly believe that.

If the Pats won SB52, everyone would be talking about that as the greatest game by a QB ever in the postseason. I don't see any reason to think that from a talent point of view that he has declined since February.

However, a shaky OL and awful depth in the receiving group could make him look old quickly.

[mcmurtry86]

On 8/24/2018 at 12:52 PM, game3525 said:

I don't see how you can slip Oakland in there and leave the Chiefs out. Say what you want about Andy Reid, but his team wins 9-11 games every year and they should be the favorites to win the west until proven otherwise. 

Calling them a favorite with a brand new inexperienced QB at the helm is a stretch.