Karnage84 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 https://www.draftpicklottery.com/lineup.php This site is free and lets you do a 16 team weighted lottery draft. Sets the draft order automatically. We can always set other rules (like bottom 8 teams can't be anywhere past pick 8 ) or whatever as needed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE-R-Lions Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: What if we were to introduce a lottery system using these tools to increase likelihood of poorer teams getting the top picks but not automatically? A lot of these projection tools base things on the previous year and expectations moving forward. However, the season rarely ever happens the way that they project. If the season doesn't happen I do think you guys are on the right track with having something to help ground the draft order. The lottery would help IMO smooth over the randomness that does occur during a NFL season and which causes significant changes in pre-season expectations. The past couple of years I've used the FantasyPros tool and it seams to be fairly correct predicting outcomes. Regardless of what we do or use, someone won't be happy with the outcome if we need to do something. I don't want to sound selfish I put a lot of time into this league. using a lottery system seams like a lot of time & effort for the small difference it would make. In the end, the poorer teams will get the better picks & the better teams will get the higher pks & the rest will be in the middle somewhere. Just looking for something to use if needed, that would fair, upfront, and easy. Yes, there not perfect but nothing will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, WE-R-Lions said: The past couple of years I've used the FantasyPros tool and it seams to be fairly correct predicting outcomes. Regardless of what we do or use, someone won't be happy with the outcome if we need to do something. I don't want to sound selfish I put a lot of time into this league. using a lottery system seams like a lot of time & effort for the small difference it would make. In the end, the poorer teams will get the better picks & the better teams will get the higher pks & the rest will be in the middle somewhere. Just looking for something to use if needed, that would fair, upfront, and easy. Yes, there not perfect but nothing will be. All of that is fair. I did post a link to a very simple, free tool that could be used to do the lottery system. I did a sample in about 1 minute. Using FantasyPros and this site, a new draft order could be generated in 5 - 10 minutes. While I am new to the league, I will always be happy to throw in my two cents on an objective basis to help the betterment of the league. Also, I am willing to do whatever it takes to ensure that @TL-TwoWinsAway doesn't get #1 overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: Also, I am willing to do whatever it takes to ensure that @TL-TwoWinsAway doesn't get #1 overall. ... smells like collusion. I vote for the forfeiture of future draft picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: ... smells like collusion. I vote for the forfeiture of future draft picks. I am willing to let go of my 2021 1st as a penalty 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lionized Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: All of that is fair. I did post a link to a very simple, free tool that could be used to do the lottery system. I did a sample in about 1 minute. Using FantasyPros and this site, a new draft order could be generated in 5 - 10 minutes. While I am new to the league, I will always be happy to throw in my two cents on an objective basis to help the betterment of the league. Also, I am willing to do whatever it takes to ensure that @TL-TwoWinsAway doesn't get #1 overall. Lmao 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lionized Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, WE-R-Lions said: The past couple of years I've used the FantasyPros tool and it seams to be fairly correct predicting outcomes. Regardless of what we do or use, someone won't be happy with the outcome if we need to do something. I don't want to sound selfish I put a lot of time into this league. using a lottery system seams like a lot of time & effort for the small difference it would make. In the end, the poorer teams will get the better picks & the better teams will get the higher pks & the rest will be in the middle somewhere. Just looking for something to use if needed, that would fair, upfront, and easy. Yes, there not perfect but nothing will be. What about a snake draft? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lions017 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, WE-R-Lions said: The past couple of years I've used the FantasyPros tool and it seams to be fairly correct predicting outcomes. Regardless of what we do or use, someone won't be happy with the outcome if we need to do something. I don't want to sound selfish I put a lot of time into this league. using a lottery system seams like a lot of time & effort for the small difference it would make. In the end, the poorer teams will get the better picks & the better teams will get the higher pks & the rest will be in the middle somewhere. Just looking for something to use if needed, that would fair, upfront, and easy. Yes, there not perfect but nothing will be. I just like how the lottery provides a little bit more wiggle room for what happens in a normal season. It's entirely possible that a team with a bunch of rookies projects as a poor team, but if the season was played several of those rookies might blow up and that team could be a contender. Another team might project well but have several veterans fall off of a cliff. Those sort of things happen every year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Lionized said: What about a snake draft? Not a huge fan of snakes, to be honest. They kinda creep me out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Just now, Lions017 said: I just like how the lottery provides a little bit more wiggle room for what happens in a normal season. It's entirely possible that a team with a bunch of rookies projects as a poor team, but if the season was played several of those rookies might blow up and that team could be a contender. Another team might project well but have several veterans fall off of a cliff. Those sort of things happen every year. Yeah, I agree with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE-R-Lions Posted July 28, 2020 Author Share Posted July 28, 2020 (edited) For yucks I just ran a random waited lottery www.draftpicklottery.com Based on this years draft order with the # of balls listed: This was the out come: Pk 1 had 28 balls placed 10th Pk 2 had 27 balls placed 6th Pk 3 had 26 balls placed 8th Pk 4 had 25 balls placed 5th - Pk 5 had 20 balls placed 1st Pk 6 had 19 balls placed 3rd Pk 7 had 18 balls placed 13th Pk 8 had 17 balls placed 2nd - Pk 9 had 12 balls placed 7th Pk 10 had 11 balls placed 9th Pk 11 had 10 balls placed 13th Pk 12 had 9 balls placed 12th - Pk 13 had 4 balls placed 14th Pk 14 had 3 balls placed 4th Pk 15 had 2 balls placed 15th Pk 16 had 1 balls placed 16th How fair was that?? Id say not very.... Edited July 28, 2020 by WE-R-Lions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lionized Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 I’m not sure how the NBA lottery works but I would think the number of balls would have exponential growth. Idk just spit balling here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Ninja Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 Feeling pretty inadequate having only 2 balls...... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lions017 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 I’ll have to research it. I’m sure other people have found a way to do it. You probably need to mess with the odds and maybe find a way to lock the top teams out of the top picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted July 28, 2020 Share Posted July 28, 2020 55 minutes ago, Lions017 said: I just like how the lottery provides a little bit more wiggle room for what happens in a normal season. It's entirely possible that a team with a bunch of rookies projects as a poor team, but if the season was played several of those rookies might blow up and that team could be a contender. Another team might project well but have several veterans fall off of a cliff. Those sort of things happen every year. Agreed. Terry McLaurin was a 5th round pick that came out of nowhere. UDFA guys historically blow up but will be unaccounted for right now. 9 minutes ago, WE-R-Lions said: For yucks I just ran a random waited lottery www.draftpicklottery.com Based on this years draft order with the # of balls listed: This was the out come: Pk 1 had 28 balls placed 10th Pk 2 had 27 balls placed 6th Pk 3 had 26 balls placed 8th Pk 4 had 25 balls placed 5th - Pk 5 had 20 balls placed 1st Pk 6 had 19 balls placed 3rd Pk 7 had 18 balls placed 13th Pk 8 had 17 balls placed 2nd - Pk 9 had 12 balls placed 7th Pk 10 had 11 balls placed 9th Pk 11 had 10 balls placed 13th Pk 12 had 9 balls placed 12th - Pk 13 had 4 balls placed 14th Pk 14 had 3 balls placed 4th Pk 15 had 2 balls placed 15th Pk 16 had 1 balls placed 16th How fair was that?? Id say not very.... That's just one run of it and we can always implement particular rules that are straightforward enough to follow. Ie a non-playoff team can't fall out of top 8, do a sample of 10 runs and then average out the draft position, etc. If there is no season we will have plenty of time to develop a process that is as fair as can be based on all of the different parameters. I just can't put blind faith/trust into one site, even if they generally are very accurate, when there is so much volatility in pre-season predictions vs real world outcomes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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