Random Thoughts

[thebestever6]

44 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Sure but either way KC is all in on Mahomes.  Smith was only helping them get draft capital in a trade.   Good news for us is Smith’s trade value is minimal at 17m for next year now that he’s back to bring a game manager.  

Long term the only team I'm super worried about in this division is the Chargers. 

The Chiefs really have salary cap issues and roster issues, the Raiders look to be a one hit wonder at this point. Unless they get a rb, replenish their oline, improve the d I don't see that changing. 

The Chargers if they get a capable qb to replace rivers eventually. I can see their team thriving long term.

Moral of the story is Denver as bad as they are this year they aren't that far off of going from worst to first. It's just gonna take a lot of hits coaching and drafting.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Long term the only team I'm super worried about in this division is the Chargers. 

The Chiefs really have salary cap issues and roster issues, the Raiders look to be a one hit wonder at this point. Unless they get a rb, replenish their oline, improve the d I don't see that changing. 

The Chargers if they get a capable qb to replace rivers eventually. I can see their team thriving long term.

Moral of the story is Denver as bad as they are this year they aren't that far off of going from worst to first. It's just gonna take a lot of hits coaching and drafting.

Agree that LAC is the team to beat.  KC will get back into cap health by 2019, though.  OAK, it's more that they have never been able to develop a D.   O's can get you to the playoffs (or close),  and are fun to watch, but D's win championships more often than not.   LAC has a top 5 pass D already, and once they find a run-stuffing DT, their run D is going to be markedly better (it already has been much improved with MLB Denzel Perryman back, but a run-stuffing DT would complete that D, their CB's are already approaching ours in terms of play).  Bosa/Ingram are the top NFL duo in pressures - no coincidence that their surge has come as their run D returned to respectability, their pass rush and pass D are already elite.

The other moral of the story - get back to overall BPA drafting philosophy.  It's no coincidence the Chargers nailed the 2016 and 2017 drafts (and ironically, their worst pick in 2017 so far was going need in WR with Mike Williams at Rd1 IMO, as they were concerned Keenan Allen couldn't hold up...and it's Williams who's been more brittle).   Rd3 pick OG Dan Feeney is a huge upgrade, and that's without Rd2 pick G Forrest Lamp (ACL) - once he's back, that's going to be one major PITA OL to deal with.  And Rd5 pick Desmond King has turned out to be everything that Brandon Langley hasn't been - shutdown 3rd CB (no TD's, top 5 rating with 200+ snaps in the slot - yes Harris Jr. is elite there, but if we had King instead of Langley at 3.101, our secondary would look huge for 2019+.  Oh well.    GM Telesco has run circles around us in the draft the past 2 seasons.   As for 2016, yes you can say they had an early pick, but everyone said that Bosa was a terrible fit for their 3-4 but they went BPA anyways - and now have changed to a 4-3.  And then they've got their TE to replace Gates in Hunter Henry Rd2, and while he's struggled year2, OLB Jatavius Brown looks to be their outside starter from Day 3.   And starting FB Derek Watt and starting C Spencer Pulley from Rd6/UDFA.   7-8 starters from the last 2 drafts, and 3-4 difference makers (Bosa the easy one, but Feeney, Henry, King are already big diffence-makers, and likely Lamp will be too..and that's with Williams unknown and C Max Tuerk their only real huge Day 2 whiff so far).

 

Edited December 5, 2017 by Broncofan

[lomaxgrUK]

S'up fellas! Appears my old account got deactivated, hence the ever so slightly different account name.

Re: AFC West teams in the future - there are no greater examples than the 2016 and 2017 Broncos that talented teams can look very average over time without good QB play.

Derek Carr still needs to prove to me he's worth anything close to his contract, but the fact he's a good young QB with a ceiling to still hit makes me fear the Raiders long term more than anyone else.

The Chiefs have an unknown as their long term QB, the Chargers have got very limited time left from Rivers and we, as we all know too well, are in arguably the worst QB situation in the league.

Long story short - it's all well and good talking about the overall strength of teams (Chargers win this, imo) but without a QB it means so little for sustained future success.

Edited December 5, 2017 by lomaxgrUK

[Broncofan]

23 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

S'up fellas! Appears my old account got deactivated, hence the ever so slightly different account name.

Re: AFC West teams in the future - there are no greater examples than the 2016 and 2017 Broncos that talented teams can look very average over time without good QB play.

Derek Carr still needs to prove to me he's worth anything close to his contract, but the fact he's a good young QB with a ceiling to still hit makes me fear the Raiders long term more than anyone else.

The Chiefs have an unknown as their long term QB, the Chargers have got very limited time left from Rivers and we, as we all know too well, are in arguably the worst QB situation in the league.

Long story short - it's all well and good talking about the overall strength of teams (Chargers win this, imo) but without a QB it means so little for sustained future success.

Again, though, it's not an either/or - Rivers was there the whole time, and LAC sucked...until their OL was better, the D was miles better, and more playmakers around him.  But yeah, we get that who is at QB matters a ton as well.   I wouldn't discount Rivers sticking it out for 2-3 more years - although he's a statue, nothing in his play has declined.  And judging by his 8-9 kids, he still feels young at heart in other ways, too.  

Edited December 5, 2017 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

4 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

S'up fellas! Appears my old account got deactivated, hence the ever so slightly different account name.

Re: AFC West teams in the future - there are no greater examples than the 2016 and 2017 Broncos that talented teams can look very average over time without good QB play.

Derek Carr still needs to prove to me he's worth anything close to his contract, but the fact he's a good young QB with a ceiling to still hit makes me fear the Raiders long term more than anyone else.

The Chiefs have an unknown as their long term QB, the Chargers have got very limited time left from Rivers and we, as we all know too well, are in arguably the worst QB situation in the league.

Long story short - it's all well and good talking about the overall strength of teams (Chargers win this, imo) but without a QB it means so little for sustained future success.

Damn it seems it’s been years since I’ve seen that account name.  Welcome back, hopefully you can be more active moving forward.

[champ11]

3 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Damn it seems it’s been years since I’ve seen that account name.  Welcome back, hopefully you can be more active moving forward.

Eh, his twitter content is rubbish you aren't missing anything 

[elliot878]

Made it to Denver.  Still alive in that huge money survivor, feel that's at risk now being on vacation.... like a feeling that I'll slip up!

[germ-x]

Just now, elliot878 said:

Made it to Denver.  Still alive in that huge money survivor, feel that's at risk now being on vacation.... like a feeling that I'll slip up!

Nice.  I don’t know denver that well or I’d tell you some places to go.

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, elliot878 said:

Made it to Denver.  Still alive in that huge money survivor, feel that's at risk now being on vacation.... like a feeling that I'll slip up!

Do you have any rituals that you've been doing to keep the streak alive?

[elliot878]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Do you have any rituals that you've been doing to keep the streak alive?

I actually just look for consensus among cbs sportsline computer model, the pro football focus picks, vegas line and then I read Evan Silva's matchups column to see if the mismatches make sense to me.

Here's the shape I'm in.  Don't have to make two picks until week 16

Used:   PIT, OAK, GB, SEA, PHI, WSH, TEN, CIN, NO, LAR, JAX, ATL, LAC

Best available:  NE, MIN, DAL, CAR, DET, BAL, NYJ, BUF, KC

My Optimal Schedule:

Week 14:  DAL @ NYG ... considering  NYJ @ DEN, BUF vs IND

Week 15:  DET vs CHI ... considering MIN vs CIN

Week 16:  CAR vs TB, BAL vs IND ... considering NE vs BUF

Week 17:  MIN vs CHI, KC @ DEN ... considering BUF @ MIA

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, elliot878 said:

I actually just look for consensus among cbs sportsline computer model, the pro football focus picks, vegas line and then I read Evan Silva's matchups column to see if the mismatches make sense to me.

Here's the shape I'm in.  Don't have to make two picks until week 16

Used:   PIT, OAK, GB, SEA, PHI, WSH, TEN, CIN, NO, LAR, JAX, ATL, LAC

Best available:  NE, MIN, DAL, CAR, DET, BAL, NYJ, BUF, KC

My Optimal Schedule:

Week 14:  DAL @ NYG ... considering  NYJ @ DEN, BUF vs IND

Week 15:  DET vs CHI ... considering MIN vs CIN

Week 16:  CAR vs TB, BAL vs IND ... considering NE vs BUF

Week 17:  MIN vs CHI, KC @ DEN ... considering BUF @ MIA

Man DAL scares me this week because no Zeke yet.  And there will be so much support for Eli to win in his return to starting again at home..  

BUF is starting Nathan Peterman again and they just put DE Lawson & Jordan Matthews on IR.   God.  As long as Peterman their QB I don’t think you can use them   

I’d put it on NE this week.  DET next as long as Stafford playing.  Then CAR & BAL week 16.  Then MIN & KC week 17.

Or risk it with NYJ this week.  DET next.  Then CAR & NE.  Then MIN & BAL as I think BAL is fighting for a playoff spot.   

Edited December 6, 2017 by Broncofan

[elliot878]

12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Man DAL scares me this week because no Zeke yet.  And there will be so much support for Eli to win in his return to starting again at home..  

BUF is starting Nathan Peterman again and they just put DE Lawson & Jordan Matthews on IR.   God.  As long as Peterman their QB I don’t think you can use them   

I’d put it on NE this week.  DET next as long as Stafford playing.  Then CAR & BAL week 16.  Then MIN & KC week 17.

Or risk it with NYJ this week.  DET next.  Then CAR & NE.  Then MIN & BAL as I think BAL is fighting for a playoff spot.   

Yea see this is the vacation stuff I'm worried about cuz I didn't even know it was Peterman time again lol.  I like that setup better.  Jets do tempt me this week though, they're playing pretty well lately.  A lot of that success has been through the air though, and while Robby Anderson's been nice, not sure he does much against the no fly zone.

 

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

Yea see this is the vacation stuff I'm worried about cuz I didn't even know it was Peterman time again lol.  I like that setup better.  Jets do tempt me this week though, they're playing pretty well lately.  A lot of that success has been through the air though, and while Robby Anderson's been nice, not sure he does much against the no fly zone.

 

Read the GD thread and decide.  NYJ issues last week had a ton of context.  NE you use either now or Week 16.   Your call. Good luck! 

[elliot878]

25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Read the GD thread and decide.  NYJ issues last week had a ton of context.  NE you use either now or Week 16.   Your call. Good luck! 

I think I'll probably just stay safe and use NE.  Their used-rate among my opponents is over 70%.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, elliot878 said:

I think I'll probably just stay safe and use NE.  Their used-rate among my opponents is over 70%.

Yeah the thing about survivor is so many ppl die being too cute this week and worry about 1-2 weeks away.  Can’t argue that.  Good luck.