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Predict the Record 2017


lumberjackchris

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1 hour ago, Pastor Dillon said:

NFL teams aren't that dumb. they knew we werent a 2-14 team the year we fired Kubiak. We had one disaster after another that year, including out HC collapsing on the field. We lost 9 games by less than a TD, 5 by 3 or less, and our franchise QB who was a pro bowler had this record setting pick 6 streak that cost us a bunch of games. Our pro bowl running back missed 1/2 the season as well. Heck even JJ Watt had a mysterious 10 sack season.

What the deuce are you talking about? We lost 14 in a row that season. Our two wins were literally last second/OT victories, that team could have very well went 0-16. If anything, that 2-14 mark didn't show how bad this team really was.

For frame of reference, there are other two other teams this century to lose 14 in a row in a single season; Carolina in 2001 (15 in a row actually) and the Lions 0-16 campaign. That 2014 Texans team was historically bad.

Our injuries caught up to us but what team DOESN'T have that? Heck, Watt had 8.5 LESS sacks this past campaign, and we still didn't lose 14 in a row. 

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Week 1  vs Jags - W

Week 2  @ Cincy - W

Week 3  @ Pats - L

Week 4  vs Tenn - W

Week 5  vs KC - L

Week 6  vs Cle - W

Week 7  BYE

Week 8  @ Sea - L

Week 9  vs Indy - W

Week 10 @ Rams - W

Week 11 vs Cards - L

Week 12 @ Balt - W

Week 13 @ Tenn - L

Week 14 vs 9ers - W

Week 15 @ Jags - W

Week 16 vs Pitt - L

Week 17 @ Indy - L

 

10 - 6, we have a few easy games, a few hard games, and a few games we should win but will lose

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Week 1  vs Jags - W

Week 2  @ Cincy - W

Week 3  @ Pats - L

Week 4  vs Tenn - L

Week 5  vs KC - L

Week 6  vs Cle - W

Week 7  BYE

Week 8  @ Sea - L

Week 9  vs Indy - W

Week 10 @ Rams - W

Week 11 vs Cards - W

Week 12 @ Balt - L

Week 13 @ Tenn - W

Week 14 vs 9ers - W

Week 15 @ Jags - W

Week 16 vs Pitt - W

Week 17 @ Indy - W

 

That makes 11-5.

Probably a bit too optimistic, but I think if Savage struggles enough during that Wk 3-5 period, Watson might get a chance, and that might be all he needs, especially since outside at Seattle, the schedule on the back half isn't particularly rough.

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  • 1 month later...

Looking back at this the general consensus was that we would be 4-2 by the bye week. We are still playing catch up for the Jags loss that no one saw coming. 

We can make that up this week as most people had the texans losing to the Seahawks 

 

here is an updated prediction

@Seattle L

Colts W

@Rams L

Cards W

@Ravens L

@Titans W

49ers W

@Jags L

Steelers L

@ Colts W

That would put us at 8-8 on the season. I want to say we can beat the Ravens to get us to 9-7 but its Monday night football. We could get a revenge win over the Jags, but its hard to predict a win when they destroyed us so badly. The opposite is true of the Titans, I can see us losing that one on the road, but after we destroyed them, how could i not pick us to win. Rams are definitely a lot better than originally believed and i bet they torch our secondary. Steelers game will be a huge let down, as they are really good anyway and its a nationally televised Christmas day game. 

We could finish anywhere from 7-9 to 11-5 I would say. 

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Admittedly, I thought we'd get Tom Savage through maybe KC, not... halfway through Jacksonville. But still, I picked 3-3 and got 3-3, and Watson looks even better than I would have imagined.

That said, being able to actually look at the teams and not just projections of the teams...

 

AFC South:

The Colts suck. Their wins are a combined 0-14. Luck might change things, but they probably don't even risk at a certain point. I think we can sweep them, unless maybe we're not playing for anything in Week 17.

The Jags... are actually pretty good, and I think our biggest competition for the AFC South title, and their defense might take them places. That said, I think Week 15 us is going to be much better than Week 1 us, so I'll call it a toss-up.

The Titans, I'm skeptical about. They looked terrible against us, and barely escaped the Browns. The Browns. I think we sweep them, too.

AFC North:

The Ravens aren't looking all too hot this year. Their wins have been Cincy, Cleveland and the Carr-less Raiders, while losing to the Bears and getting drubbed by the Jaguars. I think we win this one.

The Steelers are good, but inconsistent. If the team that played the Chiefs show up, it's probably a loss. If the team that played the Bears or Jaguars showed up, we can totally take it. But given this is a nationally televised game, I would lean towards the former.

NFC West:

The Rams are way better than I think anybody thought they were, that's probably a loss.

The Niners are probably better than 0-7, but not by much. Should still be a win.

The Cardinals are pretty weak at the moment, especially without Carson Palmer. I'll call it a win.

The Seahawks - they've been up and down at times this season. But they've been historically strong and we're playing at CenturyLink field, so I would call a loss more likely than a win.

 

Should be wins:
Colts (x2), Titans, Niners, Cardinals, Ravens

Toss-ups:

Jaguars, Steelers

Should be losses:

Rams, Seahawks

 

So that puts us somewhere between 11-5 to 9-7, which I think is reasonable.

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On 8/14/2017 at 9:22 AM, EliteTexan80 said:

10-6 (1-4 start with Savage, 9-2 finish with Watson - with a signature W against Pittsburgh on Christmas Day).

Hmm, I actually had a 2-4 start, so we're ahead by a game. xD

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19 hours ago, Longhorns90 said:

Admittedly, I thought we'd get Tom Savage through maybe KC, not... halfway through Jacksonville. But still, I picked 3-3 and got 3-3, and Watson looks even better than I would have imagined.

That said, being able to actually look at the teams and not just projections of the teams...

 

AFC South:

The Colts suck. Their wins are a combined 0-14. Luck might change things, but they probably don't even risk at a certain point. I think we can sweep them, unless maybe we're not playing for anything in Week 17.

The Jags... are actually pretty good, and I think our biggest competition for the AFC South title, and their defense might take them places. That said, I think Week 15 us is going to be much better than Week 1 us, so I'll call it a toss-up.

The Titans, I'm skeptical about. They looked terrible against us, and barely escaped the Browns. The Browns. I think we sweep them, too.

AFC North:

The Ravens aren't looking all too hot this year. Their wins have been Cincy, Cleveland and the Carr-less Raiders, while losing to the Bears and getting drubbed by the Jaguars. I think we win this one.

The Steelers are good, but inconsistent. If the team that played the Chiefs show up, it's probably a loss. If the team that played the Bears or Jaguars showed up, we can totally take it. But given this is a nationally televised game, I would lean towards the former.

NFC West:

The Rams are way better than I think anybody thought they were, that's probably a loss.

The Niners are probably better than 0-7, but not by much. Should still be a win.

The Cardinals are pretty weak at the moment, especially without Carson Palmer. I'll call it a win.

The Seahawks - they've been up and down at times this season. But they've been historically strong and we're playing at CenturyLink field, so I would call a loss more likely than a win.

 

Should be wins:
Colts (x2), Titans, Niners, Cardinals, Ravens

Toss-ups:

Jaguars, Steelers

Should be losses:

Rams, Seahawks

 

So that puts us somewhere between 11-5 to 9-7, which I think is reasonable.

Great points, but the Steelers are going to beat us I would say. That passing attack against our secondary that gives up big plays is scary. Antonio Brown might go for 200 yards and 3 TDs

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An Honest Question, Does the Talent we suddenly have on offense in Watson, Foreman, and other guys stepping up make us better than thought, or does the loss of Mercilus and Watt make us worth than thought or do the two cancel out and we are basically about the same level as before?

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6 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said:

An Honest Question, Does the Talent we suddenly have on offense in Watson, Foreman, and other guys stepping up make us better than thought, or does the loss of Mercilus and Watt make us worth than thought or do the two cancel out and we are basically about the same level as before?

Tough call altho my gut says better.  Put this offense on last year's defense and altho I still think we lose in NE, I'd say we'd have been a strong contender vs. flukish division champ with a glorified bye week in the wild card.  Even with a healthy Watt, Mercilus, Kevin Johnson and adding Cunningham, Cole, Gilchrist, our ceiling was always going to be Divisional Round as we're never going to just shut down Brady or Ben/Bell, Brown and certainly the Chiefs need to be added to that mix of teams we have to play 3 phases against, not one. Not sure that has changed much, but I think even with average defense, the rest of the AFC is absolutely beatable and I'll give Watson a punchers chance of elevating in a big playoff game. 

Problem is, we gotta get there first and that likely means having to win in Tenn and Jacks to win the division or at least finish in front of one of them for the WC as I think the AFC South gets the 2nd WC with Buffalo's d making them strong in the AFC North .   I think the Tenn drubbing is going to have them circling the rematch like no other and the Jags most definitely are looking for real with a defense that is better than our offense and they ran the ball down our throats with Watt, Mercilus, et al. The real test to me is going to be if Watson can win some big games on the road as the home docket is a cakewalk outside of the Steelers which I think is going to make for a sad Xmas. Ravens game is absolutely winnable, but is shaping up to be a critical one as the Jags already beat them AND the Steelers and you gotta think the Titans beat them at home.

The maddening part is that to me, the biggest swing in the division is the inexcusable decision to let AJ Bouye walk.  We've essentially allowed them become us with a stifling defense and Fournette puts them ahead of where we were last year.  As underwhelming as Bortles is, he's certainly better than Brock and they have plenty of resources to go get a quality starter next year (don't discount an aging yet still effective vet). 

 

 

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