GDT Week 3: DEN @ BAL

[Broncofan]

M&T Stadium

11:00 AM CT September 23rd, 2018

Coverage: CBS (Announcers TBA)

 

BALTIMORE (1-1, 9-7 in 2017, 2nd in AFCN), DENVER (2-0, 5-11 in 2017, 4th AFCW) 

Line:  BAL - 5, O/U somewhere around 43-44 pts

DVOA:  BAL (#7 overall - #23 on O; #3 on D; #1 on ST), DEN (#29 overall - #31 on O; #10 on D; #30 on ST),

DVOA Ranks:  https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

 

So, we take care of SEA & barely squeak by OAK at home weeks 1-2 - but now the schedule starts to get real, with an early time zone road game vs. BAL, who gets 10 days of prep work for ThuNF.  

Keys for this week:

1.  Take advantage of the BAL CB's and the loss of ILB CJ Mosley -  BAL's strength is their D.   We catch a huge break with ILB Mosley - he's their Ray Lewis lite.  Either way, the pass game vs. their CB's (especially with Jimmy Smith suspended) and whoever is replacing Mosley.   That means DT/Sanders and the TE's are a key area where we gain, but first...

2.  Limit the TO's, win ToP on O - Keenum cannot turn the ball like Week 1over with this ballhawk, opportunistic D.  He also can't struggle like he did Week 2.   The problem with ToP is that BAL is traditionally stout in run D, so it does mean he's going to have to carry the load.   Quick reads, good throws (he starts the 1H jittery, and happy feet and high throws/late reads).   He has to come out ready to play, because it allows us to...

3.  Get Ahead Early, Lean on the Run Game - the ThuNF week 2 game with BAL-CIN showed how BAL's D can be beaten - Dalton & AJG burned them early, then they could lean more on the run game with Joe Mixon.   In our case, if we can establish a 1H lead, it helps Freeman get on the field.   We cannot keep relying on 15+ carries for Lindsay in catchup mode like last week, and Freeman is our real hammer in the run game.    It all starts with getting ahead. 

4.  Get pressure on Flacco - give Gruden & OAK credit, ,they came up with a solid plan to get rid of the ball super-fast, to help negate our lethal pass rush.  BAL's O is more vulnerable, as Flacco is not a 3-step drop guy, and he's a statue.   If we can get to to Flacco, it helps us deal with our biggest weakness, namely..

5.  WR John Brown and the BAL TE's vs. our 2nd/3rd CB's & hybrid S/LB's - everyone will recognize Crabtree as the name they recognize on BAL, but the reality is that John Brown is their top WR now (10 targets last week, same as Crabtree, but significant air yard gap, Crabtree is just a short route guy now), and he's also the guy with the skill set that will give us huge problems - lightning fast, and elusive, quick-twitch (poor man's Tyreke Hill, no one is at his level, just never healthy in ARI with his sickle cell trait <discovered while he was in ARI>).  Crabtree can be taken out (even without someone yanking his chain, figuratively or literally lol).   Brown's deep speed and quicks are the top concern, especially once he faces Roby or our 3rd CB.    On the flip side, BAL has 3 TE's normally (their top pick Hayden Hurst is out, though - another break) - but they still have 3 pass-catching TE's (Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams & Mark Andrews).   Given our trouble there, getting pressure on Flacco really helps, as it limits the mismatches there.  

6.  Watch out for Alex Collins and the BAL run game - much like in the OAK game, getting behind presents a double-edged sword, because BAL can pull out a very solid power run game with Alex Collins an even more punishing version than current day Beast Mode (not peak, of course).   The one weakness Collins has - fumbles - which indirectly hekps the opposition - because after another week 1 RZ fumble work Collins, they’ve been using Buck Allen more (who’s truly JAG) in pass and GL work.  In reality, though, we don't want to rely on that potential, better to get ahead, and put our D in what we do best, pinning ears back to get to Flacco. 

7.  Be ready for Lamar Jackson gadget plays -    BAL designs about 6-8 Jackson-specific plays, much like the old Kordell Stewart slash-plays we saw in PIT.   We can't be unprepared for this, and we need to know how to change our assignments when he's there.  

8.  Winning (or not getting beat badly) on ST's - BAL has the #1 ST unit from last year, and with good reason.   McManus isn't Justin Tucker - but in a game that the D likely dominates on both sides, he has to match him in being flawless for anything inside 45 yds.    Roby was great last week, after he struggled week 1, so hopefully he continues on his All-Pro skill set.   Our gunners haven't been great, so we should hopefully see more improvement.  KO coverage and blocking is a work in progress, as teams adjust to the new rules on formations, so hopefully we can match BAL's, who is admittedly an elite squad.   Being even here is a great result, especially limiting big plays or missed kicks on our end.

Overall, I've said we're likely a 7-9/8-8 team, and I also said we'd likely be 2-0 given the matchups and home games.  That's borne fruit, as the biggest Q's that we thought we might have on O have come to pass (is Keenum as good as 2017, or as bad as pre-2017 - the answer being yes to both at times lol), and on D (our pass coverage for the secondary from Roby and 3rd CB, our TE coverage from our ILB/hybrid S's).      We do get a MASSIVE break in not facing CJ Mosley - but it's still a road game, and an early start, so it's not surprising that we are 5 points dogs.  I think it will be closer than that, and whenever the margin is only 3 pts, it means we could pull it out, but in the end, I see a 23-20 loss.  I do hope I'm wrong, as I'd be happy to do a 4th GD thread lol.

I'll be away on the West Coast for a family wedding, so I'll get this up early, before travel starts on Thu (gotta pack tomorrow lol).    I'll be at an airport on Sunday, hoping for plane wifi so I can track what's happening, but otherwise praying for the team to show up for its first real test, when we are facing a road game, vs a team that truly matches up as an equal.  Can't wait!

[Royal_VT]

I grew up in Baltimore, and started hating the Ravens during their first middle school run. Unfortunately cannot make it back home for this matchup, but I am excited to trash talk my friends.

Like you said - the key is getting up early, establishing the run game and make Flacco beat us (with Von in his grill). When was the last time we got off to a quick start on offense? Some of that has to fall on Vance right? If he is drawing up the first 10 or so offensive plays and we routinely go 3 and out...

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, Royal_VT said:

I grew up in Baltimore, and started hating the Ravens during their first middle school run. Unfortunately cannot make it back home for this matchup, but I am excited to trash talk my friends.

Like you said - the key is getting up early, establishing the run game and make Flacco beat us (with Von in his grill). When was the last time we got off to a quick start on offense? Some of that has to fall on Vance right? If he is drawing up the first 10 or so offensive plays and we routinely go 3 and out...

Well script for O falls on Musgrave if it's playcalling.   I think VJ is outclassed and outmatched most weeks, but O playcalling isn't on him.

Thing is, it's not really the playcalling, can't fault Musgrave there (if anything, he puts the guys in great position to succeed, they just haven't executed early on in games).  The plays are there - but Keenum's been jittery, and missed high, with happy feet (bad base, high & inaccurate throws - if you want a great example, watch MNF CHI-SEA, Mitch Trubisky, Exhibit A).    Keenum's 4Q was impressive in both games, but against good teams, you can't play just 30 mins of good ball.    So this is a big test for our pass game for sure.   

We caught a major break talent-wise in 3 ways vs. BAL - Jimmy Smith suspended, which means CB Humpherey can only cover 1 of DT/Sanders (you'd think it's Sanders right now).  Whoever Humpherey isn't on, the other WR has to take advantage.   Secondly, no CJ Mosley is just huge, he covers a massive area of the field in pass pro and run pursuit.  Jump cuts back are definitely there for us...provided our OL holds up against the rest of their front 7, which is pretty stout.   Our TE's have more hope to make an impact with Mosley off the field, too.   Lastly, BAL using Buck Allen as their pass catching back (Kenneth Dixon on IR...again) AND goal-line back (over Alex Collins) is a massive downgrade ability-wise.   He's literally JAG, and isn't even that good at one thing, either (Booker, for all his meh running ability, is a fantastic receiver and threat there, just Lindsay is that much better as an elite in-space weapon).    If BAL uses Collins 20x and Allen 5-6x, worse for us - it might end up being an even split.

Still, injuries are part of the game - on the flip side, we might not have Veldheer, which is scary.   Billy Turner was OK, but again, that's a bottom 5 pass rush, and they were exhausted in the 2H.  We aren't going to see that in BAL.    So while it sucks for BAL, we hopefully can take advantage.  It gives us more hope to pull the improbable W, there's clearly an avenue to there, but it really means Keenum and the 2nd-3rd targets this week have to step up, so we can lean on what the OL does best - run block with a lead.

[jsthomp2007]

I think instead of the Broncos taking it in the a$$ in Baltimore like they always do, they should oil up some a$$es and do some plowing of their own. 

[Broncofan]

Well, not good news at all...

I love Jewell, just asking him to start Week 3 @BAL a tall order, especially with that TE-heavy O with a lot of misdirection.   The bigger issue is that Brock didn't look good at all last week.   That's a major downgrade in an area we already struggle at.  And we are screwed if any of the top 3 CB's go down, the others behind them do not appear even close to ready for prime time.

And while he's unlikely to play, CJ Mosley returned to practice.  Still seems iffy to play this Sunday, and likely nowhere near 100 percent - but either way, a huge break if it's only a 1-week injury for BAL - but a break if we avoid him, too.  

[BroncoBruin]

Hate, hate, hate playing in Baltimore. Their home field advantage is like a big play magnet for their defense and special teams. I think the Ravens will largely follow Oakland's game plan with short passes and a power run game and our defense won't have the benefit of crowd noise. I think our offense moves the ball but turnovers and penalties kill them. 

26-17 Ravens. 

[Danand]

Saw the Broncos Raiders last night and I don't think either side could be too pessimistic/optimistic about the game sunday.

While the Ravens might do the Oline shuffle and have a new constellation ready by sunday, we can't put an oline on the field which could match the Raiders so Von Miller, Chubb and your inside fat guys not named Domata Peko will have plenty of opportunities to make plays.

If the Ravens pass rush and coverage is somewhere in between the Bills and Bengals game, I think they will be able to contain Keenum and Co. most of the games. Tight ends is Flaccos best friends, and tight ends seems like you guys worst friend, so that will be key in the game.

[champ11]

I think the Broncos will probably lose a fairly ugly game. We are good at pulling BS wins outta nowhere though so I wouldn't be surprised with a dub 

[thebestever6]

10 hours ago, champ11 said:

I think the Broncos will probably lose a fairly ugly game. We are good at pulling BS wins outta nowhere though so I wouldn't be surprised with a dub 

This team reminds me of the 09 Broncos so much.  I do think this team could be a playoff team though.  There's young players on both sides of the ball so lets see if they can continue to gel. 

Flacco being in a do or die year playing a game at home scares me though. 

[Broncofan]

Good news for us - Billy Turner may be better with the new coaching staff.   Or OAK’s pass rush may just be that bad.   Either way I’d rather not find out this week on the road.  Veldheer clearing the concussion protocol is huge.  

 

[germ-x]

Thought this would be interesting heading into week #3.  Below is Denver’s current regulars Pro Football Focus Rankings.

QB: Keenum- 70.5 grade- #15

RB: Freeman- 61.4 grade- #31

RB: Lindsay- 68.3 grade- #18

FB: Janovich- 59.5 grade- #3

WR: Thomas- 60.5 grade- #63

WR: Sanders- 83.6 grade- #7

WR: Sutton- 56.1 grade- #80

TE: Heuerman- 58.2 grade- #37

TE: Butt- 72.1 grade- #13

OT:  Bolles- 75.2 grade- #8

OT: Veldheer- 70.3 grade- #16

OG: Leary- 67.6 grade- #19

OG: McGovern- 69.4 grade- #17

OC: Paradis- 73.3 grade- #6

DE: Wolfe- 60.7 grade- #61

DE: Gotsis- 53.3 grade- unranked

DE: Kerr- 71.6 grade- unranked

DT: Peko- 65.4 grade- #51

DT: Harris- 83.5 grade- unranked

OLB: Miller- 90.1 grade- #3

OLB: Chubb- 77.0 grade- #10

OLB: Barrett- 81.9 grade- unranked

OLB: Ray- 57.4 grade- unranked

ILB: Marshall- 61.8 grade- #39

ILB: Davis- 45.0 grade- #62

ILB: Jewell- 70.0 grade- unranked

CB: Harris- 72.1 grade- #31

CB: Roby- 54.2 grade- #89

CB: Jones- 57.1 grade- #83

CB: Brock- 49.5 grade- unranked

S: Simmons- 62.7 grade- #47

S: Stewart- 54.1 grade- #64

[germ-x]

Thoughts from 2 weeks of grades:

OL:  that’s a good unit.  If they play like that all season that’s a huge improvement from last year.

OLBs:  Miller, Chubb, and Barrett (though unranked because he hasn’t played enough snaps) is an elite group.  All 3 are good vs both the run and pass as well.

DBs:  Interestingly even with 3 top 10 graded OLBs who’ve created chaos, the unit has been average at best.  Some of that can be chalked up to miscommunications early in the year, but they have to improve for this defense to be elite.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

Thoughts from 2 weeks of grades:

OL:  that’s a good unit.  If they play like that all season that’s a huge improvement from last year.

OLBs:  Miller, Chubb, and Barrett (though unranked because he hasn’t played enough snaps) is an elite group.  All 3 are good vs both the run and pass as well.

DBs:  Interestingly even with 3 top 10 graded OLBs who’ve created chaos, the unit has been average at best.  Some of that can be chalked up to miscommunications early in the year, but they have to improve for this defense to be elite.

Besides SSS, the one huge caveat about PFF's methodology - it assumes that the competition faced each game is the same.   So besides the fact that 2 games aren't enough to call it a real trend, the fact is we've faced 2 bottom 10 (and in SEA's case, I'd argue a bottom 5 team).    It's also why Keenum's rating last year, facing the 2nd-worst pass D schedule, is quite misleading.  I love PFF for the fact they break down each play, but that's the one weakness that has to be factored in.  Over the long run, a consistently great PFF rating over 2-3 years, because the competition eventually evens itself out, carries more weight.   But a high rating for a brief stretch, it's crucial to look at the competition faced.

Having said all of that - it makes the DB performance even more worrisome.   The OL didn't face good competition - but they played well, you can't take that away from them, can't ding them for doing their job vs. worse talent.  But the DB's struggles against a very subpar SEA and OAK corps that was basically Amari Cooper and no one else...well, yeah, worrisome.   This week, John Brown is the only guy that can really hurt us, Crabtree's the type of WR we should be able to control.    The TE's are a tougher matchup.  Even though it's on the road though, knowing it's only Brown, if the CB's don't play well this week, again vs. a crew  that's pretty limited...well, it's definitely time to get really concerned.

[germ-x]

51 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Besides SSS, the one huge caveat about PFF's methodology - it assumes that the competition faced each game is the same.   So besides the fact that 2 games aren't enough to call it a real trend, the fact is we've faced 2 bottom 10 (and in SEA's case, I'd argue a bottom 5 team).    It's also why Keenum's rating last year, facing the 2nd-worst pass D schedule, is quite misleading.  I love PFF for the fact they break down each play, but that's the one weakness that has to be factored in.  Over the long run, a consistently great PFF rating over 2-3 years, because the competition eventually evens itself out, carries more weight.   But a high rating for a brief stretch, it's crucial to look at the competition faced.

Having said all of that - it makes the DB performance even more worrisome.   The OL didn't face good competition - but they played well, you can't take that away from them, can't ding them for doing their job vs. worse talent.  But the DB's struggles against a very subpar SEA and OAK corps that was basically Amari Cooper and no one else...well, yeah, worrisome.   This week, John Brown is the only guy that can really hurt us, Crabtree's the type of WR we should be able to control.    The TE's are a tougher matchup.  Even though it's on the road though, knowing it's only Brown, if the CB's don't play well this week, again vs. a crew  that's pretty limited...well, it's definitely time to get really concerned.

Don’t disagree with your assessment of PFF.  I think the assessment they do best is QBs because they grade every pass and just because it’s an INT/TD it’s evaluated on the throw.

I just thought this was something interesting to look at now and see how it ends up throughout the season.

As far as DB play, Denver has given up some big plays due to miscommunication.  Obviously that’s a knock on any DB involved, but these rankings would be different without those blown coverages.  This DB unit isn’t the no fly zone, but I also don’t think they’re as bad as PFF ranks them, or at least I hope not.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

Don’t disagree with your assessment of PFF.  I think the assessment they do best is QBs because they grade every pass and just because it’s an INT/TD it’s evaluated on the throw.

I just thought this was something interesting to look at now and see how it ends up throughout the season.

As far as DB play, Denver has given up some big plays due to miscommunication.  Obviously that’s a knock on any DB involved, but these rankings would be different without those blown coverages.  This DB unit isn’t the no fly zone, but I also don’t think they’re as bad as PFF ranks them, or at least I hope not.

Yeah the PFF grade doesn’t look for the root cause either just as it doesn’t look at the competition faced.  If it’s communication then it offers hope for a quick fix.  But if it’s all skill-based then we are in trouble.

Roby is the one guy who’s sending up huge flags.   The other guys like Pac-Man  and Brock might not know their assignments when switches are needed / motion moves guys around.  Roby should.  Moreover in man coverage he looks tentative when press / aggression is called for.  The next 2 weeks are going to be a huge litmus test for him the 3rd CB. 

I'm driving to airport through a bunch of dead spots, then flying 2 stops, 8 hours total, so doubt I'll be posting here - hopefully will be seeing good news, but bracing for worse...