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2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread


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On 10/12/2018 at 3:25 PM, hrubes20 said:

It actually IS a really well run baseball team.  They haven't been the George Steinbrenner Yanks for awhile now.  They will still sign Manny Machado this offseason (almost a lock now that Didi needs TJS and will miss the first half of 2019), but that doesn't mean they aren't well run.

Signing a guy for $300m just because you expect a guy on your team to miss half a season seems like overkill to me, but ?‍♂️

My money is on Machado sticking with the Dodgers.

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10 hours ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

I agree that Corbin isn't that great, but I'd take a Happ-caliber pitcher who's 7 years younger.

Cant say I pay close attention to the Diamondbacks - but I dont have a sense that they suck - so why's Corbin got such a "meh" career W-L record? (56-54).

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10 hours ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

I agree that Corbin isn't that great, but I'd take a Happ-caliber pitcher who's 7 years younger.

While the big money teams go for Patrick Corbin, I want Yusei Kikuchi. Similar pitcher, I'd argue slightly better stuff, same age, but has some injury questions that are going to knock the price way down and doesn't cost you a draft pick.

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9 hours ago, Starless said:

Signing a guy for $300m just because you expect a guy on your team to miss half a season seems like overkill to me, but ?‍♂️

My money is on Machado sticking with the Dodgers.

That's not the reason. 

1. Didi is a FA after next year anyway. So the overlap only matters the 1st year.
2. Machado is a gold glove 3B who is bad at SS, but wants to play SS. Signing him now with a clearly superior SS gives you half a season to confirm you can't have him shift his way to mediocrity, then moves him back to 3B once he's committed to the team and more likely to accept the move.
3. You set this up for the better part of 3 years because you wanted Harper without a luxury tax penalty, but then it turned out the Marlins were willing to give you Giancarlo Stanton. You have the money. The best players available are Harper and Machado. You don't have space for Harper outside of DH. You can make Machado work by rotating guys along the infield like the Cubs do. That's the cleaner fit. You could spend the money on pitching, but Kershaw is going to be a Dodger and has back issues, Corbin is coming off a career year and you'll probably sign him too, and that's about it as far as top tier pitching unless you sign Kikuchi.

Machado isn't a perfect fit, but it's the best fit among guys who are really good and they have the money.

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On 10/13/2018 at 3:50 AM, crab1106 said:

When Cash is out there saying he's gone I bet he ends up non-tendered. His value is so low now. My "offseason plan" had him worth Eric Thames but that may have been too high. 

Baseball value wise, I'd trade Thames straight up for Gray no questions asked. You're not really saving a lot of money, Thames is due $6M this year with a $1M buyout IIRC. So basically $7M in real life dollars, but only $6M luxury tax. Gray is projected for $9.1M in arbitration. And if he balls out, you might be able to still get a draft pick for him.

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6 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

1. Didi is a FA after next year anyway. So the overlap only matters the 1st year.
2. Machado is a gold glove 3B who is bad at SS, but wants to play SS. Signing him now with a clearly superior SS gives you half a season to confirm you can't have him shift his way to mediocrity, then moves him back to 3B once he's committed to the team and more likely to accept the move.
3. You set this up for the better part of 3 years because you wanted Harper without a luxury tax penalty, but then it turned out the Marlins were willing to give you Giancarlo Stanton. You have the money. The best players available are Harper and Machado. You don't have space for Harper outside of DH. You can make Machado work by rotating guys along the infield like the Cubs do. That's the cleaner fit. You could spend the money on pitching, but Kershaw is going to be a Dodger and has back issues, Corbin is coming off a career year and you'll probably sign him too, and that's about it as far as top tier pitching unless you sign Kikuchi. Machado isn't a perfect fit, but it's the best fit among guys who are really good and they have the money.

During Spring Training I was "all in" NOT to trade the kids (specifically focused on Frazier who I thought was gonna rotate in to our outfield future......) for Cole of PIT.
Well, given how the year played out - we should have moved Frazier - although I'll comment, that it appears HOU sat him down and got him to change his method of pitching a bit which paid dividends. In all honesty, I'm unsure the NYY have that level of talent/expertise in their coaching ranks. I cant speak to the career success/failure of Larry Rothschild - but I'm not impressed how he's handled the NYY pitchers.

There's been season long whispers that part of Severino's problem this year was he was tipping pitches - perhaps as recent as the ALDS. If true - thats simply unacceptable IMO. Somebody from the coaching ranks should have hunted any problems down - and corrected it with with Sevy - and watched him like a hawk to see if old habits resurfaced. If he was doing it in the playoffs......still......that apparently wasnt done - which doesnt cut it when you're talking about your presumed #1 arm.

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17 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Baseball value wise, I'd trade Thames straight up for Gray no questions asked. You're not really saving a lot of money, Thames is due $6M this year with a $1M buyout IIRC. So basically $7M in real life dollars, but only $6M luxury tax. Gray is projected for $9.1M in arbitration. And if he balls out, you might be able to still get a draft pick for him.

 

I'd be more interested in Moustakas than Thames.
Whats his deal for 2019?

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5 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Mutual option that he's going to opt out of. He'll be a free agent.

Thats what I was thinking. We might be able to use his left handed bat.
Didi's down for the foreseeable count - and Bird's just cashed in a season from hell - so who knows what his future holds.
Right now he's teetering on the edge of more injuries - or lack of production due to them. We cant be carrying 1st baseman that dont produce at the plate.

Does Moustakas play any first base (?) or is he pretty much planted at third?

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6 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

That's not the reason. 

1. Didi is a FA after next year anyway. So the overlap only matters the 1st year.
2. Machado is a gold glove 3B who is bad at SS, but wants to play SS. Signing him now with a clearly superior SS gives you half a season to confirm you can't have him shift his way to mediocrity, then moves him back to 3B once he's committed to the team and more likely to accept the move.
3. You set this up for the better part of 3 years because you wanted Harper without a luxury tax penalty, but then it turned out the Marlins were willing to give you Giancarlo Stanton. You have the money. The best players available are Harper and Machado. You don't have space for Harper outside of DH. You can make Machado work by rotating guys along the infield like the Cubs do. That's the cleaner fit. You could spend the money on pitching, but Kershaw is going to be a Dodger and has back issues, Corbin is coming off a career year and you'll probably sign him too, and that's about it as far as top tier pitching unless you sign Kikuchi.

Machado isn't a perfect fit, but it's the best fit among guys who are really good and they have the money.

Except you're stuck with Machado at SS because Didi is gone.

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16 hours ago, Slateman said:

Except you're stuck with Machado at SS because Didi is gone.

Outside the monetary outlay and what I presume would be a long contract - I'd actually prefer the NYY take a pass on Machado. As far as "on the field" contribution, I dont see how "getting stuck with Machado" has much of a downside. The guy produces. 

We're gonna be in to Stanton for the foreseeable generation - he's got a full on no trade clause - while AJ, Sanchez and folks will be coming up and needing new contracts / contract extensions. They cant all stay young and cheap forever.

My deal - not following BALT for more than a second or two (because I value my mental health....) - was concern about Machado's knees and how it would effect his career length. I cant tell you how well he's playing or moving around at SS - but think third a better fit for that reason alone.

We'll see how it plays out. Lots of moving parts now.

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11 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

It's all relative SSS on the defensive metrics.  Eye test isn't bad at him at SS, and the metrics have loved him at SS since moving to LA.  

That Orioles team was a blackhole. Everyone, with the exception of Schoop, just didn't play baseball well unless they got traded to a real team.

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