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Week 10 - New England (7-2) @ Tennessee (4-4) - We are on to Nashville


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In the last game before the bye week, the Patriots will head to Nashville to face off against the Titans and several former Patriots. 

The Titans started the season strong with upset wins over the Jaguars and Eagles before they struggled mightily on offense and dropped 3 straight games. They did bounce back with a win at Dallas however last Monday. 

While their offense did struggle the strength of this team is the redzone defense. They have the best scoring defense in football.They only allowed TDs on a 38% rate which leads the NFL. Combine that with the Patriots struggles in the RZ and Gost could have a busy day.

The Patriots will head into the game riding a 6 game winning streak and attempt to finish off strong before heading into the bye. Despite some injuries to key players the offensive production has been good as they average 30 points per game which ranks 4th in the league. The defense has improved as of late. They improved to 13th in the DVOA rankings.

It will be interesting to see how the former Pats players will perform. Dion Lewis has played well as has Logan Ryan. Butler has performed poorly so far.

As far as injuries go, the Patriots should get Michel and possibly Mason back. I don't think Gronk will play however.


Keys to the game:

- Limit Mariota in the run game. The Pats have had trouble containing mobile QBs in the past and Mariota is very elusive. This will be important.

- Get Michel going. The redzone production lacked because the Pats were too one dimensional. Michel should change that again. Before the injury he ran at an elite clip.

- Continue the positive trend of no turnovers. 2 games without a turnover has been good to see. Hope that continues.



New England 30

Tennessee 20



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I think the Titans are a sneaky good matchup for the Pats. I expect Brady to be able to sling it between the 20s, however the Titans have the ability to get in his face and disrupt his rhythm. If Mariota is on his game, that offense will be hard to stop. They key will be taking away the big play and making Marcus beat us on his feat. I expect Malcolm to have his best game of the season this week. 

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Projection by my model: New England 65.64%. 

ESPN FPI: New England 62.4%.

FiveThirtyEight ELO: New England 63%.

Pretty consistent by the numbers. However, this could be a trap game - Tennessee has a talented roster and if they can control the ground game with Henry, Lewis, and Mariota, we could be in trouble.

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They are last (or near last) in offensive points, but close to the top (or at the top) in points allowed. So, very low scoring games, by the sounds of it. 

I don't see how Logan, Butler, Jackson and co. can cover all of Gordon, White, Edelman, Gronk, Dorsett and Hogan. Someone is going to be open there, or there will be mismatches to exploit. Not our toughest assignment on offense.

On D we HAVE to play like we did vs Rodgers. We limited his escapability/scrambling, and we have to do the same to MM (I know AR was slightly hobbled). They're not a flashy offense at all, but they can stay out there if they're allowed to slip through/past the first line.

I'd be surprised if we didn't win.

TEN: 20

NE: 27

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I think NE's offense makes a statement this game, especially if Michel and Mason are both back. I think they move the ball well, and score in redzone having addressed it in practice all week. Titans will make some big plays on the back of Lewis and Mariota escaping the pocket, but won't score consistently. They  try to pick on Butler in man in a way which makes Patriots fans conflicted.

35-17 Patriots. Maybe slightly closer than the score looks thanks to some timely turnovers by Mariota.

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1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Gronk is out, but if Michel is back - no worries.

They reckon Logan will be on Edelman. Does anyone remember how this went in the training camps? Edelman is constantly moved in motion anyway, I don't see how we can say X has him.

Yeah Gronk is hardly a factor anymore. Michel back would be more important. If Ryan is on Edelman, Gordon should have a field day against Butler...

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They only got things going after the defense broke down on the scramble. They really need to focus on keeping Mariota in the pocket. On the TD, McCourty was forced to come up from his position to keep Marcus from jogging into the endzone which opened up his zone for the throw. 

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