BDL 2018 Semifinals: #7 Hawaii Nightmarchers @ #1 Orlando Ospreys

[Whicker]

BDL 2018 Semifinals

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[Whicker]

Hawaii Nightmarchers

Offense  

QB – Russell Wilson
RB – Saquon Barkley 
WR – Antonio Brown
WR – Stefon Diggs
WR – Tre’Quan Smith
LT – Andrew Whitworth
LG – Marshall Yanda
C – Ryan Kelly  
RG – Ben Garland
RT – Taylor Decker 
OT – Jordan Mills

BN – TE – Ben Watson
BN – TE - Dallas Goedert
BN - RB - Dion Lewis
BN - RB – Tarik Cohen
BN – WR - Josh Doctson
BN – OG – Tom Compton
BN – OC - Pat Elflein
  

Defense  

DE – Jadeveon Clowney
DT – Deforest Buckner
DT – Sheldon Rankins
DE – Frank Clark
LB – Roquon Smith
LB – KJ Wright
CB – Casey Heyward
CB – Marshon Lattimore
CB/S – Darryl Roberts
FS – DJ Swearinger
SS – Eric Weddle   

  
BN – DE – Harold Landry
BN – DE - William Hayes
BN – DT – BJ Hill
BN – LB - Kyler Fackrell
BN – LB – Tahir Whitehead
BN – LB – Duke Riley
BN – CB - K’Wuan Williams
BN - CB - Bobby McCain

 

 

 

Orlando Ospreys

QB Phillip Rivers

RB Alvin Kamara

WR Mike Evans

WR Allen Robinson

WR Sterling Shepard

TE Rob Gronkowski

LT Taylor Lewan

LG Frank Ragnow

OC Mike Pouncey

RG Ali Marpet

RT Lane Johnson

 

Bench RB Chris Carson

Bench RB Tevin Coleman

Bench WR Willie Snead

Bench WR Dante Pettis

Bench WR Josh Reynolds

Bench TE Jonnu Smith

Bench OT Trent Brown

Bench OG Cam Erving

 

LOLB Joey Bosa

LDE Tyrone Crawford

NT Ndamukong Suh

RDE Henry Anderson

ROLB TJ Watt

ILB Bobby Wagner

ILB Demario Davis

CB Jalen Ramsey

CB Jaire Alexander

S Tashaun Gipson

S Xavier Woods

 

Bench Int Allen Bailey

Bench Int Danny Shelton

Bench Edge Michael Bennett

Bench Edge Clay Matthews

Bench LB Fred Warner

Bench CB Joe Haden

Bench CB James Bradberry

Bench S Antoine Bethea

 

[Whicker]

Hawaii Nightmarchers

Offense

Running game - On offense this week we’re looking to attack the weaknesses of the Orlando defense, very notably its defensive line. Alan Bailey was the weak link last time we played them and he continues to pull starts as one of Orlando’s DEs. This week we’ll get the added advantage of Kenny Clark being sent to the IR with an elbow injury. This forces Orlando to put Suh in at NT and bring Henry Anderson in to play the other DE. We’re going to focus on this weakness and attack it relentlessly. Saquon will get north of 20+ carries, Tarik Cohen will be in the mix as well getting 5-10 carries. Our bread and butter of this game will be to attack the defense head on and pounding the rock. To do this we’re going to be using Jordan Mills as an extra lineman in place of Ben Watson in base sets to give us the numbers advantage in the trenches. We’ll feature Yanda and Kelly in the pulling game when running off tackle. Whitworth or Decker will seal off Watt and Bosa with Yanda and Kelly leading the way for Saquon in the second level of the defense. When running up the middle we will use double teams on Suh, pushing him to the left or the right to clear the path for our RBs up the gut. Russell Wilson will also be used as a runner if any holes open up.

Passing game – Our passing game this week will feature a combination of both quick/comeback routes as well as vertical passes. We respect both Jalen Ramsey and Jaire Alexander and want to use easy pitch and catch routes for Russell Wilson to connect to his WRs. We assume Antonio Brown will face Orlando’s number 1 CB in Jalen Ramsey who he roasted to the tune of 117 yards and a TD, if not we’re more than comfortable with him facing their #2 cornerback. That said we expect him to get double coverage so we’ll feature him in slants, quick outs, and curls to keep the safety from affecting his production. If he doesn’t see double coverage we’ll open up the route tree and allow him to find the gaps in Orlando’s defense. On the other side we’ll have the combo of Diggs in the slot and Tre’Quan Smith as the outside speedster. If Jaire Alexander follows the talent inside to the slot we believe that this is a match-up advantage for Diggs who has the quickness and footwork to get separation off the line and wreak havoc underneath against the larger Alexander. If Haden or Bradberry try and cover Diggs he will be targeted 10-15 times as this is a serious mismatch in our favor. On the outside Smith will be used in the vertical part of the route tree featuring go routes, corner routes and post routes.  We will give Smith enough targets to keep the safeties from cheating in on Saquon or completely double covering AB. After the run is established early in the game we’ll start to sprinkle in some play action passing as the shorter routes from AB and the consistent running approach should catch the Orlando secondary off guard for us to open out the passing with some deep shots.

Defense

DL/LBs – This week on defense we’re following the template set forth by the Baltimore Ravens. They smacked Phillip Rivers (and one of my fantasy Championship hopes) around all night by regularly bringing 5 men on the pass rush to pressure the immobile Phillip Rivers. This week again on the line we feature the combo of Clark – Rankins – Buckner – Clowney whose sack totals increase from last week to a total of 41 combined between them. Clowney and Clark will be tasked with outside leverage playing a 7 technique (outside shoulder of the tackle) to contain Kamara from getting to the edges and funneling the play into our DTs and LBs. This week we welcome back KJ Wright to our LB corps who gives us a much needed boost in playmaking ability. KJ will cover Gronk and Roquon will cover Kamara. If either is held in to block the LB will bring A gap pressure to force Rivers to get rid of the ball. By playing disciplined on the edges and bringing pressure in the middle we shut down the best parts of both Kamara and River’s game. Kamara gets bottled up on the inside and the older, immobile Rivers gets pressure in his face forcing him to look to the outsides for help.

Secondary – One of the key elements of Baltimore’s victory against Rivers and the San Diego chargers besides for the pressure in River’s face was safety versatility and disguising coverages. This week we welcome Darryl Roberts from the Jets who had been the starting slot corner for the Jets until the injury to Marcus Maye forced him into the Free Safety role for New York. We picked him up on waivers this week because we love the versatility and the size that he brings to our defense. We’re going to play a combination of man and zone defense.  Swearinger and Weddle will adjust their coverages based on who is lined up where. In man Lattimore and Hayward will man the outside and play boundary corner against Evans and Robinson, we’re comfortable with both match-ups but will shade the high safety help to Evan’s side as we believe he is the only WR who can break a game open on the Orlando roster. Roberts will cover Shepard and use a press technique to use his size advantage to re-route him and keep him from finding a soft zone. In Zone coverage Lattimore and Hayward will remain as boundary corners playing up to the line and Weddle, Swearinger, and Roberts all playing behind the LBs. In zone we’ll utilize the versatility of Roberts and Weddle to wither send a safety Blitz or a corner blitz with Weddle or Roberts covering the deep third for that CB.

TL;DR Offense – Run the ball at a very weak line featuring and extra OL in base sets which will help with double teams for inside runs and pulling interior lineman for outside runs. Use our WRs in either short attacking routes, or longer routes to keep safeties out of the box with play action taking over the game in the second half.

TL;DR Defense – Pressure, Pressure, Pressure. DEs play a wide technique to keep Kamara funneled inside, Use mixed coverage schemes to disguise blitzes from LBs, CBs, and S to keep the pressure on the immobile Rivers.

 

 

 

Orlando Ospreys

Offense

 

Balanced running game. We will run a balanced offense this week. Hawaii has a solid starting DL but they usually carry only one bench player at DT and DE (William Hayes who was on the bench last week has been on IR since Week 3 and is on Camden roster) and we will stick to it. We know getting past the first level isn’t going to be easy, but behind that DL the linebackers are not great, so we think we can move the ball through the ground. Our running game will be balanced between inside and outside, but we will mainly target Frank Clark or Harold Landry outside (especially if they line up on the left side where we have Marpet + Johnson), as Clowney is one of the best run defenders at the DE spot in the NFL. Kamara and Carson will split carries evenly, but Kamara will play more snaps overall as he’s the better receiver.

 

Target Hawaii depth with a variety of formations. Hawaii starting lineup matches up pretty well with our base offense, we’re aware of that. However, one of our team strength is its depth at every spot and we will use it to put Hawaii in tough spots:

 

1.     Multiple RB sets (40%): Carson and Kamara are two of our best players so we want to see them on the field together a lot. Coleman is a very adequate pass catching RB too. And Hawaii LBers aren’t good, while their 3^rdsafety is the terrible Ron Parker. We think we can create a lot of mismatches with multiple RB sets. The most common one will be Carson and Kamara in the backfield together. If a 3^rdLB or Parker is added into the field, we will often split Kamara out and target him as receiver. If it’s a CB, then we will run the ball directly towards him.

2.     6 OL formations (5-20% depending on Hawaii bench composition): Hawaii usually carries only 6 DL into a game. They might finally decide to show effort by adding guys like Armstead this week, but in case they don’t, we will run a lot of 6 OL formations with Trent Brown and run straight at Harold Landry if he’s added to the lineup. Not only do we expect immediate success, but that should also tire out that DL for the decisive 4^thquarter.

3.     Multiple WR sets (10-20% depending on Roberts health): Hawaii has 5 corners on roster and one of them (Roberts) is questionable. If he happens to be out, we will run a lot of 5 WR sets and target the WR who’s matched up vs a safety. Even if Roberts plays, we’ll use those sets to target McCain and Roberts as we think our depth receivers are good enough to beat those guys regularly

 

Use Kamara, Evans and Shepard. Hawaii lacks a quality defender at the LB position and we really hope to see Kamara matched up with Roquan Smith. Kamara will be lined up all over the field, in the backfield, in the slot or outside and will be targeted around 10 times on a bunch of different routes, whether Hawaii plays man or zone. If he’s doubled with Roquan and a safety, that leaves Gronk with Fackrell, a matchup we love even if Gronk is having a down year. If Kamara is doubled with Fackrell and a safety, we will look to involve him on screens or slants to limit the impact of the double team.

We expect Mike Evans to be matched up with Lattimore, a matchup he’s worked well this year as he had 230 yds on the 2 Saints games this year. If no safety help is given to him, we will take a couple of shots deep. If safety help is indeed given, we will target in on short and intermediate throws, using the size advantage he has over Lattimore, and on crossing patterns, especially if Hawaii is playing zone on a substantial amount of plays.

Shepard out of the slot will be also a premier target if lined up against K’Waun Williams as we expect our guy to get the better hand on that matchup.

 

Up-tempo offense. Once again, Hawaii depth isn’t on par with the quality of its starting lineup. We will run an up-tempo offense to tire them out, installing ourselves a heavy rotation at every spot. We eluded to the RB rotation early, but we carry 6 WRs this week so we’ll give a breather to everyone. Jonnu will come in for Gronk here and there, but there will also be a lot of instances where we don’t play a TE at all. 

 

Protect Rivers. We trust our tackles to handle Hawaii good duo at edge, and we love Marpet too. Pouncey will be responsible for blitz pickups but if no blitz, he will help Ragnow and double team whoever is lined up there. Our TE can provide an additional chip if necessary. 

 

Defense

 

Stop the run. Hawaii has a complete offense with one of the best RB in the NFL. We expect Hawaii to come out with a 2WR, 2 RB, 1 TE offense in which we will answer with a base defense with 8 men in the box (Gipson). Warner comes in for Woods in 2TE offense with Gipson staying deep. In 3 WR sets, Haden comes in for Woods with Gipson staying deep as well. We want to have an extra body in the box a lot as we fear the power of Saquon. If Hawaii goes 3 RBs, we will just add a 3^rdsafety who will also play in the box. With a limited range of passing options at Hawaii disposal, we think making them one-dimensional would go a long way for our defense.

 

Trust our individual matchups. We will play 70% man 30% zone in this game. Wagner has the speed and athleticism to cover Saquon and he will get the matchup. Ramsey gets AB. Alexander gets Diggs. Gipson gets Cohen and Davis gets Watson. In 2TE sets, Warner gets Watson and Davis the 2^ndTE. 3^rdWR is covered by Haden, 4^thby Bradberry. Woods (or Gipson in 2TE sets / multiple WR sets) plays deep centerfield.

On 30% of other cases, we will run zone coverages, from a cover 3 to a disguise cover 2 with Gipson dropping back into deep zone. We will also run some Tampa 2 concepts with Wagner dropping back. We will have our guys following their matchups as much as we can to keep our coverages disguised.

 

Rotate our DL. Hawaii has a good OL, but we expect our 5 men DL to give them fits. We will apply a lot of rotation to keep everyone fresh until the end of the game. Allen Bailey will play most passing downs for Anderson. Shelton will play a bit on running downs as the NT. Bennett plays inside on passing downs and outside on running downs. Clay Matthews will come in here and there at OLB to give Bosa/Watt a breather.

 

Keep containment outside. Wilson mobility is impressive and it allows him to break outside the pocket when the pocket collapses inside. It also allows Hawaii to implement some zone read concepts. To prevent that, we put a premium on keeping containment with our edge guys and our second level defense will be very aware of outside runs as Saquon, Cohen and Russell are deadly there.

 

[Hockey5djh]

I just re-sent my gameplan. I guess it didnt' go through last night. Sorry for the delay @Whicker

[ny92mike]

Thanks @TedLavie

Appreciate you doing this.  Looks great!

You take the vote on this since you wrote it up.

Thanks again.

[ny92mike]

Having foresight of how the games played out sunday and incorporating that into your game plan is kinda cheap, but I still love ya. 

[Scoundrel]

Still need to read Orlando’s game plan but I wanted to throw this down before I forgot.

I really like Hawaii’s game plan on offense. Utilizing AB on quick hits to negate double coverage is an affective strategy. I like the run game and the focus on attacking Orlando up the middle with Quon and utilizing Cohen as change of pace. However as someone pointed out in my game plan when I used an extra OT it makes your offense detectable and that OT takes a weapon off the field. If it is seldom used it is beneficial but it is featured here. 

I however see some inconsistency in the defensive gameplan. It is said you are regularly bringing five rushers to bring pressure on Rivers. But that pressure is then listed as contingent on Kamara or the TE staying into block. So depending on what Orlando does it could nullify the advantage you claim to have by pressuring Rivers with five. And I don’t see how often you’ll be playing man or zone to see if the safety blitzes are consistent enough to get that five man pressure like you claim. 

Also Roberts coming right off the waivers, playing free safety as of late and saying you are using him to cover Shephard in the slot? I see that is a big area of weakness for you and you attempted to mask it by hyping this pick up but it’s not going to be a strength for you. 

[TedLavie]

@Whicker as stated in the gameplan William Hayes is on IR and is on Camden roster

[TedLavie]

14 hours ago, Whicker said:

We assume Antonio Brown will face Orlando’s number 1 CB in Jalen Ramsey who he roasted to the tune of 117 yards and a TD

Ramsey also got 2 INT that game

 

14 hours ago, Whicker said:

Roquon will cover Kamara

Thank you

 

14 hours ago, Whicker said:

against the larger Alexander

Jaire is 5'10 and 196 Lbs. Not sure he's 'larger' than Diggs

[Jlash]

Good countering on each other's game plans here. Orlando's plan to get creative and bring 5 DL is negated with Hawaii deciding to go with a heavy base and have a 6th OL most of the game. 

I've said before, putting anyone other than a CB or a good S on Kamara is just asking for an issue, and Hawaii willingly does that to themselves here. 

I think Orlando would have a big advantage in this game if it wasn't very clear that something is wrong with Gronk physically. I think the ball control offense, combined with the sheer explosiveness of Hawaii's playmakers will give them the tiniest of edges in this game. I'm talking 1 pt game kind of edge.

[Scoundrel]

I won’t be voting on either game until tonight or tomorrow.

[Xmad]

If Hawaii hadn't brought in the 6th o-lineman for a decent chunk of the game this would've been a bit more one sided for Orlando but as Jlash said, good counter. 

Both of these gameplans complement each other really well, with Gronk more or less being irrelevant this year I don't see him being a big factor and Hawaii's CBs are more than capable of limiting Orlando's WRs or keeping them in check. AB vs. Ramsey would be a hell of a matchup here, I think both get their dues but in the end AB wins more.

This is a close one, both teams have good options on offense and solid defenses to counter each other. I'll say Orlando's performance from Rivers and focus on bringing an extra d-linemans ways it to Hawaii's side. 

Hawaii 33-Orlando 30

[pheltzbahr]

Man, this is an excellent match up.  Have read throug each game plan twice, need to come back.

[Scoundrel]

After much thought I’m going Orlando here. They have a good feel for their opponent and have a counter for most of Hawaii’s strategy. It was a very close game and I think Kamara is the difference maker in this one. Well done by both GMs. 

[Whicker]

Excellent matchup as others have said. I eventually decided on Orlando.

Hawaii will obviously have decent offensive production due to talent, but I think they are adequately contained. Ramsey, Alexander, and Wagner are all good enough to keep the top 3 Hawaii weapons from going off, and Hawaii doesn't carry anything exciting behind them. I would really like to see more creativity from Hawaii going forward in getting Cohen more involved in the passing game. I'm not thrilled by him just getting a few carries.

On the other side, I think Hawaii gets taken by surprise by Chris Carson. I've made my feelings known on Carson and Hawaii never mentions him. Their outlined run defense would limit Kamara, but I think Carson succeeds inside. On top of this, Kamara has a good matchup in the passing game and he should have a few explosive receptions.