Thoughts on Josh Allen

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

After watching that video I saw a LOT of contested catches and 50/50 throws.

Were there drops?  Of course.  Does Kelvin Benjamin have bricks for hands?  Yes.  But a lot of those throws don’t have a high likelihood of being completed regardless as to who the receiver is.

It’s one thing to try to throw a guy open, another to just throw it at a guy who’s covered and expect them to catch it.

I’m not saying Allen shouldn’t be throwing these balls either, sometimes that’s all there is, other times you’re taking a shot, but those throws aren’t high percentage throws.

[The BILLievers]

When fans of other teams try lecturing you about the film of your starting QB by posting youtube highlight reels  dude you've watched 3 minutes of the red zone channel and googled josh allen highlight videos. you look at the box scores and you think the combination of that + some youtube highlights make things a fact. 

Josh Allens rushing stats are so good for two reasons : 1) because he's an amazing athlete and 2) because teams play man coverage against him and turn their back not wanting to get beat in the air. How can you say Allen isn't a talented runner? You see when he hurdled anthony barr? or his 8 rushing touchdowns? He's a 6'5" white dude who weighs 240 pounds and can throw the ball 80 yards in the air. He's not as agile as Lamar or Russell Wilson but he still managed 8 rushing touchdowns and 630 rushing yards in 12 games. That doesn't happen by luck.

Ask any Bills fan and his passing was night and day before and after injury. We had a bottom 3 OL, bottom 3 WR corp, bottom 3 running game, and no tight end. Yet he went .500 in the last 6 games of the season. With maturity, a new OL and new weapons  i think he'll take another leap forward. 

And let me be clear,I hated the Josh Allen pick when we made it. It was group think because of social media but if i had to redraft the only QB I'd consider over Allen is Baker. 

[The BILLievers]

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

After watching that video I saw a LOT of contested catches and 50/50 throws.

Were there drops?  Of course.  Does Kelvin Benjamin have bricks for hands?  Yes.  But a lot of those throws don’t have a high likelihood of being completed regardless as to who the receiver is.

It’s one thing to try to throw a guy open, another to just throw it at a guy who’s covered and expect them to catch it.

I’m not saying Allen shouldn’t be throwing these balls either, sometimes that’s all there is, other times you’re taking a shot, but those throws aren’t high percentage throws.

What happens when your OL doesn't give you time to block and your undrafted rookie WR's can't get open? 

It's not a coincidence that Allen has his best games when the OL plays decent. 

[ILoveTheVikings]

49 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

Wrong.

Being conservative watching this video, not counting the deep passes that were off finger tips or too far inside, as well as the play to Clay against Miami, there are 29 drops here.

 

And Kirk Cousins was on his way to 5,000 yards and 60 TD's if it wasn't for drops. Prove me wrong.

[Trentwannabe]

3 minutes ago, ILoveTheVikings said:

And Kirk Cousins was on his way to 5,000 yards and 60 TD's if it wasn't for drops. Prove me wrong.

Solid argument. 

Completely irrelevant and proves nothing. Take the L. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

9 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

What happens when your OL doesn't give you time to block and your undrafted rookie WR's can't get open? 

So he’s never had time?  In Buffalo or Wyoming?  It’s always someone else’s fault? Meanwhile other QB’s are just continually lucky their whole careers?

Perhaps Allen is under pressure because he holds the ball too long? 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw (longest time to throw in the league for those not wanting to click the link)

Again, I’m not saying Allen is in a perfect position to succeed, but people are mentioning drops as an excuse for his low completion percentage.  A lot of the drops shown in that video aren’t drops in my eyes or the eyes of stat guys, they’re defended passes or contested throws that aren’t caught.  

[Trentwannabe]

10 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

but those throws aren’t high percentage throws.

That's what he does though. That what the offense is based around really. Play action deep passes on dig routes and 9 routes. 

I think many (not you) ignore this fact and see 52% and think he's just an inaccurate QB. Imagine if just 14 more catches were completed, his percentage would have been 57% (still not good but a start) Much different conversation about Allens rookie year IMO.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

2 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

Solid argument. 

Completely irrelevant and proves nothing. Take the L. 

Kind of relevant....

I think his point that every QB deals with drops, has passes that go off receivers hands and get picked off, has receivers run the wrong routes, etc rings true.

It’s pointless to assume what could have been in a perfect situation.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

11 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

That's what he does though. That what the offense is based around really. Play action deep passes on dig routes and 9 routes. 

I think many (not you) ignore this fact and see 52% and think he's just an inaccurate QB. Imagine if just 14 more catches were completed, his percentage would have been 57% (still not good but a start) Much different conversation about Allens rookie year IMO.

I get he’s chucking it (of course if he has 💩 for WR and and OL I’m not sure that’s a great scheme...) but how much of that is because he’s not making the best read or playing overly aggressive?

I mean, he’s got the highest air yards differential in the league (-4.6) , so while throwing deep may be his game, it’s not working particularly well. Maybe he needs to learn to “lay up”, to use a golfing term.

As far as imagining stats, how come people only want to do that when it benefits a player?  I’ve never seen anyone say “can you imagine if  those 15 times our WR’s made great plays on balls that were tough catches they’d dropped the ball?  His completion percentage would be 47% instead of 52%...”

[ILoveTheVikings]

1 hour ago, Trentwannabe said:

Solid argument. 

Completely irrelevant and proves nothing. Take the L. 

I literally backed up my statement with facts.

If you want to ignore facts that isn't on me. I can make nonsensical statements that aren't based on facts and pass them off as facts if I wanted to as well.

 

Furthermore, EVERY qb in the league has to deal with drops.

[The BILLievers]

57 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

So he’s never had time?  In Buffalo or Wyoming?  It’s always someone else’s fault? Meanwhile other QB’s are just continually lucky their whole careers?

Perhaps Allen is under pressure because he holds the ball too long? 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw (longest time to throw in the league for those not wanting to click the link)

Again, I’m not saying Allen is in a perfect position to succeed, but people are mentioning drops as an excuse for his low completion percentage.  A lot of the drops shown in that video aren’t drops in my eyes or the eyes of stat guys, they’re defended passes or contested throws that aren’t caught.  

I don't know where to start. Every draft analyst will tell you the talent around him at Wyoming was terrible and are you really trying to argue that the Bills OL gave him time or that his WR's got open??? You're acting like he's a 10 year veteran and this is his "excuse" his whole career.. dude he's played 1 nfl season and had arguably the worst supporting cast in the NFL and still went .500 as a rookie.

The longest time to throw means nothing because his WR's are undrafted rookies lmaooo. I got some stats for you to back this up:

• Bills WR avg. 2.31 yards of separation at the time of catch (2nd worst in the NFL)
• Bills WR avg. 2.63 yards of separation at the time of throw (worst in the NFL)
• 50% of Allen's throws traveled 10+ yards
• 20% of Allen's throws traveled 20+ yards

Of course his completion percentage wasn't as great as a dink and dunk passer. Give him decent WRs, a OL that can somewhat pass block, and some screens and his completion percentage will rise quickly. 

[Trentwannabe]

19 minutes ago, ILoveTheVikings said:

I literally backed up my statement with facts.

If you want to ignore facts that isn't on me. I can make nonsensical statements that aren't based on facts and pass them off as facts if I wanted to as well.

 

Furthermore, EVERY qb in the league has to deal with drops.

What facts? You posted one article that you quickly found on google that says he has 15 drops. 

Video evidence, even if you cut out 50/50 balls and his overthrows is still over 15 lol.

yes every QB deals with drops, I have literally never stated otherwise. I simply pointed out Allen has more then most. You then brought of Kirk Cousins for no other reason but to bring up a ridiculous stat for an overrated QB  with actual good receivers. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Trentwannabe]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I get he’s chucking it (of course if he has 💩 for WR and and OL I’m not sure that’s a great scheme...) but how much of that is because he’s not making the best read or playing overly aggressive?

I mean, he’s got the highest air yards differential in the league (-4.6) , so while throwing deep may be his game, it’s not working particularly well. Maybe he needs to learn to “lay up”, to use a golfing term.

As far as imagining stats, how come people only want to do that when it benefits a player?  I’ve never seen anyone say “can you imagine if  those 15 times our WR’s made great plays on balls that were tough catches they’d dropped the ball?  His completion percentage would be 47% instead of 52%...”

I don't disagree. In principle I like the offense but this years team was not built for it.

As for the last comment, I am guessing it's because WR are paid professionals are their job is too catch the ball. Also, I know this wasn't your point but I doubt the Bills had 5 "wow" catches from their WR group lol 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

8 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

I don't know where to start. Every draft analyst will tell you the talent around him at Wyoming was terrible and are you really trying to argue that the Bills OL gave him time or that his WR's got open??? You're acting like he's a 10 year veteran and this is his "excuse" his whole career.. dude he's played 1 nfl season and had arguably the worst supporting cast in the NFL and still went .500 as a rookie.

I never said he was anything... just pointing the consistent statistics for any meaningful football he’s ever played.  Take it however you like.

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The longest time to throw means nothing because his WR's are undrafted rookies lmaooo. I got some stats for you to back this up:

• Bills WR avg. 2.31 yards of separation at the time of catch (2nd worst in the NFL)
• Bills WR avg. 2.63 yards of separation at the time of throw (worst in the NFL)
• 50% of Allen's throws traveled 10+ yards
• 20% of Allen's throws traveled 20+ yards

Of course his completion percentage wasn't as great as a dink and dunk passer. Give him decent WRs, a OL that can somewhat pass block, and some screens and his completion percentage will rise quickly. 

Aren’t those numbers essentially one and the same?  Is a WR going to create separation early if they run a late breaking route?

Want to see those numbers (separation times) decrease?  Run a slant once in a while lmaoooo (because adding lmaoooo makes my point significantly more valid while instantly diminishing yours, amiright fellas?!?)

Now, if all they’re doing is running deep routes without any underneath routes, that could certainly explain the long time to throw, but I’m assuming the Buffalo coaching staff has a modern NFL playbook with modern concepts that feature routes at multiple levels of the defense.  Assuming that’s the case, perhaps he need to stop looking downfield as often and take the shorter throws, complete some passes, get the ball, in the hands of his playmakers and keep the drive going. Throwing a 40 yard incompletion isn’t better than completing a pass for 5 yards.

As far as the dink and dunk, no one is saying that’s what he needs to be. 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-intended-yards 

There’s the list, how many of those guys at the top are dinking and dunking?  Is there nothing in between dinking and dunking and throwing bombs?

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

10 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

I don't disagree. In principle I like the offense but this years team was not built for it.

That’s fair.

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As for the last comment, I am guessing it's because WR are paid professionals are their job is too catch the ball.

For sure they are, but it doesn’t always work out like that.  To use a comparison to basketball, it’s a player’s job to knock down shots, but it’s a lot harder to hit a 3 with a defender in your face than it is for a wing to hit a midrange jumper with a big trying to guard him.

At some point Allen is going to need to identify the mismatches and get them the ball in space for an easy catch and run as opposed to just trying to force throws to covered receivers and expect them to best the man across from them.

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Also, I know this wasn't your point but I doubt the Bills had 5 "wow" catches from their WR group lol 

They need an upgrade, no doubt. Zay Jones looked good though.  That’s a start.