Thoughts on Josh Allen

[Trentwannabe]

22 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

i have no idea why this needs to be said but 1, 8 or 22 plays out of a sample of 600 means nothing. when you make definitive statements like teams dont spy allen and arent worried about stopping him, then you need to prove it throughout the full sample of plays. If you havent already reviewed or can show team didnt spy allen, then its baseless. make sense now?

Bingo. Just because he wasn't spied on during the plays he took off doesn't mean he wasn't during the game at all. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

41 minutes ago, GSUeagles14 said:

i have no idea why this needs to be said but 1, 8 or 22 plays out of a sample of 600 means nothing. when you make definitive statements like teams dont spy allen and arent worried about stopping him, then you need to prove it throughout the full sample of plays. If you havent already reviewed or can show team didnt spy allen, then its baseless. make sense now?

I literally did that.

[GSUeagles14]

25 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I literally did that.

you literally did not. not sure if we're having a reading comprehension issue or if im blind but where was your post with all of allens plays at qb. if there is none, reread the first part of the post you quoted 2 or 3 more times.

[diamondbull424]

5 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

based on his arm, which is undeniably special. thats almost universally agreed upon, its like disputung jacksons fast despite the fact we dont have an recent 40 time.

Also, since youve claimed that teams dont spy allen, please provide every offensive play where hes at qb... you must have access to that and have gone through it since you said thats the case. Meanwhile, Allen outproduced jackson running the ball. And Jackson undoubtedly helps the run game, a huge part of that production is volume based, theyve been running by fr the most and throwing the least. Its almost like they dont want him throwing.

 

SO to recap, Allen had a better year running the ball. Allen has a more talented arm, what exactly are you arguing here and do you really even believe it?

1. It is true that Josh Allen has special arm strength. His arm strength is generational. But this is cancelled out by his generationally bad accuracy. Allen has had multiple games in the 40% range and finished the season with a 52.8% completion percentage. What’s more there is nothing in Allen’s history that makes a completion% improvement argument seem convincing. In college both years as a starter he passed for 56% and 56.3% completion respectively. Contrast that to Lamar Jackson where as a starter he went from an abysmal 54.7% as a true freshman to 56.2% (better than Allen’s sophomore numbers) and then again jumps to 59.1% as a junior. In the NFL Allen has again a 52.8% completions to Lamar’s 58.2% completions.

2. This is blatantly untrue for a host of reasons. First off background on the season, in the 9 games with Joe Flacco at QB the Ravens were the 31st ranked rushing attack and were averaging  3.61 yards per carry, which had it remained at those numbers would’ve put our unit as the last ranked rushing attack in the NFL this season in efficiency. Under Lamar Jackson the rush offense rushed for the most yards in the NFL during that time while producing an average YPC of 5.01 which would ranked it as the 2nd most efficient rushing unit. Now even if we assume he plays better defenses and that efficiency declines a bit, the drastic difference in the rushing attack paints a picture of a unit that Lamar completely turned around because of the pressure he’s put on defenses as a generational rushing threat, Lamar’s impact was MUCH GREATER than Allen’s. He completely warped the efficiency of his rushing attack while under Allen the Bills have fielded a consistently below average rushing attack. If Allen was truly a better threat than Jackson than the residual impact would matriculate to his teammates receiving greater statistical gains than what they’ve currently seen.

Now we move on simply to an individual basis. On this point you are, again wrong. Within his 11 starts Allen rushed for 605 yards, an average of 55 yards/game. In Jackson’s 7 starts, he rushed for 556 yards, an average of 79.4 yards/game. And on the season as a whole Jackson outrushed Allen 695 yards to 631 yards. Thus it’s quite clear that Jackson has outproduced his contemporary in rushing acumen.

3. Perhaps. By not throwing the ball as much and running it more, it provides the strategic benefit of allowing our defense more time on the sideline to recover. Their performance has improved since Lamar took over and transformed the rushing attack, that could be coincidental or more likely is a strategic result.

But even when throwing the football Lamar has proven more effective than Allen. His passing numbers inside the pocket far exceeds what Allen has produced statistically. Then we look at the numbers. While Allen has attempted 29 passes per game, he only completed 15.4 of them (on average). Lamar has attempted 24 passes and completed 14.1 of them (on average). Then when you factor in Allen’s 6.5 Y/A to Jackson’s 7.1 Y/A and you have the case where the Bills have asked Allen to pass 21% more than Jackson, but Allen has actually produced 0.01% less passing yards than Jackson on a per game basis. Throw in the fact that Jackson has a 3.5 TD%/1.8 INT% efficiency to Allen’s 3.1 TD%/3.8 INT% efficiency.

So not only does Allen have a vastly inferior completion percentage, but he also is an inferior passer of the ball overall to Jackson. Jackson is the more impactful runner as well. The only thing Allen does better than Jackson is toss the ball down the field and hit receivers outside the hash marks better.

 

So all in all, your fanatical musings have been weighed. They have been measured. And have been found wanting.

[CP3MVP]

On 1/1/2019 at 6:23 PM, Forge said:

But how accurate do you need to be with his skillset overall? People see quarterbacks completing 65-75% of their passes and I think that too many people start to think that's the baseline for being a successful quarterback, and I Don't think that's the case. Now, he can't be the 52% he was this year, that's for certain, but at 60% or so, with the rest of his skillset, he should be quite good. 

Cam isn't accurate. He's got an MVP, went to the superbowl, and has been very effective. Kaep was never accurate, he had a nice run and really only had the one awful season (even the season with Chip was largely okay) and also went to a superbowl (albeit that roster was pretty stacked). 

Obviously, it's not like 60% is going to be an easy task for him there. He couldn't get that done in college either. So I think that completing 60% of his passes would still be a monumental improvement from where he's at now. But some better players, perhaps a more friendly passing scheme (Cam completed 67% of his passes with Norv this year, and we know that Cam isn't a 67% accurate passer lol) and I don't think it's completely impossible that he gets it high enough to be a very effective quarterback. 

Innacurate QBs can have fluke seasons where everything breaks right on loaded teams but in order to be consistently great you have to be able to put the ball on the money. Josh Allen has never shown to be accurate at any Level of football and this goes back to high school 

[diamondbull424]

In terms of answering the topic question, Josh Allen actually surprised me a little. Thought he would be a complete dud. But he’s actually shown some promise of being a gamer that can deliver quality results.

I don’t think he’ll ever be particularly accurate. I think he’s much more potential than substance for that reason. That said, I can see him as Joe Flacco with far worse intermediate accuracy traded for a more athletic package. I see Allen as a guy who, assuming health, can stabilize the Bills QB position for the next decade so as to allow them to recruit better offensive talent and stabilize the franchise until they can find someone at QB who is clearly better than what they have in Josh Allen (which will be difficult to find because Allen has traits that will allow him to hide some of his deficiencies and produce well.)

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

Innacurate QBs can have fluke seasons where everything breaks right on loaded teams but in order to be consistently great you have to be able to put the ball on the money. Josh Allen has never shown to be accurate at any Level of football and this goes back to high school 

Didn't answer my question though. How accurate does he need to be? Kaep and Cam made it work at 59-60%. No reason to think that he couldn't as well

He doesn't need to be as accurate as other quarterbacks. He does need to be more accurate than he is.

 

[GSUeagles14]

38 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

1. It is true that Josh Allen has special arm strength. His arm strength is generational. But this is cancelled out by his generationally bad accuracy. Allen has had multiple games in the 40% range and finished the season with a 52.8% completion percentage. What’s more there is nothing in Allen’s history that makes a completion% improvement argument seem convincing. In college both years as a starter he passed for 56% and 56.3% completion respectively. Contrast that to Lamar Jackson where as a starter he went from an abysmal 54.7% as a true freshman to 56.2% (better than Allen’s sophomore numbers) and then again jumps to 59.1% as a junior. In the NFL Allen has again a 52.8% completions to Lamar’s 58.2% completions.

2. This is blatantly untrue for a host of reasons. First off background on the season, in the 9 games with Joe Flacco at QB the Ravens were the 31st ranked rushing attack and were averaging  3.61 yards per carry, which had it remained at those numbers would’ve put our unit as the last ranked rushing attack in the NFL this season in efficiency. Under Lamar Jackson the rush offense rushed for the most yards in the NFL during that time while producing an average YPC of 5.01 which would ranked it as the 2nd most efficient rushing unit. Now even if we assume he plays better defenses and that efficiency declines a bit, the drastic difference in the rushing attack paints a picture of a unit that Lamar completely turned around because of the pressure he’s put on defenses as a generational rushing threat, Lamar’s impact was MUCH GREATER than Allen’s. He completely warped the efficiency of his rushing attack while under Allen the Bills have fielded a consistently below average rushing attack. If Allen was truly a better threat than Jackson than the residual impact would matriculate to his teammates receiving greater statistical gains than what they’ve currently seen.

Now we move on simply to an individual basis. On this point you are, again wrong. Within his 11 starts Allen rushed for 605 yards, an average of 55 yards/game. In Jackson’s 7 starts, he rushed for 556 yards, an average of 79.4 yards/game. And on the season as a whole Jackson outrushed Allen 695 yards to 631 yards. Thus it’s quite clear that Jackson has outproduced his contemporary in rushing acumen.

3. Perhaps. By not throwing the ball as much and running it more, it provides the strategic benefit of allowing our defense more time on the sideline to recover. Their performance has improved since Lamar took over and transformed the rushing attack, that could be coincidental or more likely is a strategic result.

But even when throwing the football Lamar has proven more effective than Allen. His passing numbers inside the pocket far exceeds what Allen has produced statistically. Then we look at the numbers. While Allen has attempted 29 passes per game, he only completed 15.4 of them (on average). Lamar has attempted 24 passes and completed 14.1 of them (on average). Then when you factor in Allen’s 6.5 Y/A to Jackson’s 7.1 Y/A and you have the case where the Bills have asked Allen to pass 21% more than Jackson, but Allen has actually produced 0.01% less passing yards than Jackson on a per game basis. Throw in the fact that Jackson has a 3.5 TD%/1.8 INT% efficiency to Allen’s 3.1 TD%/3.8 INT% efficiency.

So not only does Allen have a vastly inferior completion percentage, but he also is an inferior passer of the ball overall to Jackson. Jackson is the more impactful runner as well. The only thing Allen does better than Jackson is toss the ball down the field and hit receivers outside the hash marks better.

 

So all in all, your fanatical musings have been weighed. They have been measured. And have been found wanting.

1. Allens intended air yards was tops in the league, jacksons was more or less middle of the pack. So while he had a lower comp %, he also attenmpting more difficult completions. And tbh, both have awful accuracy today. The realy question is what it COULD be 5 years from now, and you can dream higher with allen. 

 

2. Im almost didnt even want to reply to this since you pretty transparently left out their yc and put in bulk/vo;ume #s which is the ultimate sign that youre biased and wont be objective. Allen blew jackson out of the water when it came to ypc. As far as other guys, theres a lot of variables in play but didnt they make a rb change and I know Dixon got semi healthy at the end.

 

3. MOre mixing in of bulk and rate #'s, seriously try and be less obvious. as already addressed, allen was attempting deeper throws which are generally harder to complete. but im conused what point youre trying to make here, that while both had awful comp %s and generally poor passing results, Jackson was better? Sure, but when it comes to arms the question was not today but 2,3 and 5 year from now. 

 

History tells us things like athleticism and rushing dont hold up well and almost (not quite, but almost) year 1 is the best year in that regard. you rarely get more athletic as you get older. Wigj that said, allen pretty significantly outperformed jackson in regards to rushing on an individual basis this year. They both sucked throwing but Allen has the more talented arm and he certainly showed some flashes that intrigues. I honestly think both can be newton like qbs, Allen just has a higher ceiling and its too early to say neither will reach theirs. 

 

sorry, couldnt come up with a silly, outdated quote that made me look bad to end this, ill edit one in later.

[ILoveTheVikings]

On 1/1/2019 at 7:13 PM, Trentwannabe said:

The Bills receivers did him no favours in regards to completion percentage. Not saying it would have made him a 65% passer, but the Bills were one of the leading teams in drops. I'm not sure your second line is a fair assessment of Allen. Both the GB and Mia game he through a hailmary at the end of a half which got picked. Not really him making a bad decision. Plus, it just makes sense that the more you throw the more likely you are to have turnovers, he was asked to win every game because of how bad the running game was. Allen is a godsend in comparison to Tyrod who would rather throw it away or take a sack on 4th down then risk an INT.

Allen really isn't a QB that runs a lot. This year he finished 4th in attempts for QB's and he had at least 10 short yardage sneaks. A better running game from the RB's will limit his designed touches as well. 

No they weren't. In fact they were near the bottom.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

[Scoundrel]

14 minutes ago, ILoveTheVikings said:

No they weren't. In fact they were near the bottom.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

Sauced

[Jakuvious]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Didn't answer my question though. How accurate does he need to be? Kaep and Cam made it work at 59-60%. No reason to think that he couldn't as well

He doesn't need to be as accurate as other quarterbacks. He does need to be more accurate than he is.

Depends on if we're talking for consistent success or not. Kaep and Cam made it work at 59% - 60%, but they also were trading playoff seasons with bottom half of the NFL seasons in terms of team success, and both have only really made it anywhere with top 10 defensive performance. So the proper way to phrase it is they made it work, sometimes. So sure, he could be successful at that kind of accuracy tier, but that's really not what you want, nor is it going to be reliable/consistent year to year. And that's still with 60% being pretty far off from where he is right now.

[Forge]

20 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Depends on if we're talking for consistent success or not. Kaep and Cam made it work at 59% - 60%, but they also were trading playoff seasons with bottom half of the NFL seasons in terms of team success, and both have only really made it anywhere with top 10 defensive performance. So the proper way to phrase it is they made it work, sometimes. So sure, he could be successful at that kind of accuracy tier, but that's really not what you want, nor is it going to be reliable/consistent year to year. And that's still with 60% being pretty far off from where he is right now.

Yes, but the problem is, what you're suggesting here is the case for almost every quarterback in the NFL. They are just doing it in a different manner. I don't think that makes it any better or worse than the others. Philip Rivers has made the playoffs in only 6 of his 13 seasons. Matt Stafford has managed 4 winning seasons. 

Alex Smith is effective when he has a good team around him. Andy Dalton.  Derek Carr. Matt Stafford. Etc Etc. Most quarterbacks aren't Rodgers / Brees / Brady / Wilson etc carrying subpar teams into the playoffs on their back. Sure, that's what everyone wants, but we all also have to be real about how likely it is to get that. The NFL is built offensively on the backs of quarterbacks that largely make it work "sometimes". 

So I suppose it then depends on what people would term to be a "successful' quarterback. Like, is Andy Dalton a successful quarterback? What about Matt Stafford? Because even if someone like Allen is alternating good / bad seasons and making it work sometimes, he can have similar career (obviously also possibly better or worse) than those guys and just do it in a different way. And teams simply don't move on from that level of quarterback. So is that success? I have no idea.

Now, I agree with that being far off from where he's at now. I've said that multiple times, and even included gifs lol. I do think some of that will get better from more talent. It's not going to spike it to 60 or anything, but it'll get him closer. The rest is on him. It has to get better

 

 

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, GSUeagles14 said:

1. Allens intended air yards was tops in the league, jacksons was more or less middle of the pack. So while he had a lower comp %, he also attenmpting more difficult completions. And tbh, both have awful accuracy today. The realy question is what it COULD be 5 years from now, and you can dream higher with allen. 

 

2. Im almost didnt even want to reply to this since you pretty transparently left out their yc and put in bulk/vo;ume #s which is the ultimate sign that youre biased and wont be objective. Allen blew jackson out of the water when it came to ypc. As far as other guys, theres a lot of variables in play but didnt they make a rb change and I know Dixon got semi healthy at the end.

 

3. MOre mixing in of bulk and rate #'s, seriously try and be less obvious. as already addressed, allen was attempting deeper throws which are generally harder to complete. but im conused what point youre trying to make here, that while both had awful comp %s and generally poor passing results, Jackson was better? Sure, but when it comes to arms the question was not today but 2,3 and 5 year from now. 

 

History tells us things like athleticism and rushing dont hold up well and almost (not quite, but almost) year 1 is the best year in that regard. you rarely get more athletic as you get older. Wigj that said, allen pretty significantly outperformed jackson in regards to rushing on an individual basis this year. They both sucked throwing but Allen has the more talented arm and he certainly showed some flashes that intrigues. I honestly think both can be newton like qbs, Allen just has a higher ceiling and its too early to say neither will reach theirs. 

 

sorry, couldnt come up with a silly, outdated quote that made me look bad to end this, ill edit one in later.

1. Just because Allen is attempting “more difficult throws” means nothing if he isn’t completing said throws. The fact that Lamar has a higher Y/A goes to show that he is completing longer gains more consistently.

In terms of the “real question” of accuracy 5 years from now, more likely Jackson will have superior accuracy. He’s a year younger than Allen and has put forth better completion numbers than Allen throughout their respective careers to this point. Jackson has also generally improved upon his completion% each year he receives experience while Allen’s did not budge. There is much more evidence to suggest that Lamar will continue to improve the consistency of his throws at a greater clip than Allen than the opposite. If you claim otherwise than find me statistics to back said claim or otherwise hold your peace.

2. Counter the rest of my point or we have nothing to discuss. You said Allen’s a better runner, if he is then how come his teams rushing attack has struggled mightily considering his would be impact as an elite rusher?

In terms of YPC, Lamar has more designed runs, while Allen has more scramble runs. When Jackson is in the pocket he generally looks to buy as much time with his feet to extend passing plays versus scrambling too often on pass plays.

3. I’m generally confused as to what you’re trying to even type. And perhaps you’re not  digesting the statistics provided but the point is simple. While throwing 20% less passes/game than Allen, Lamar Jackson has thrown for slightly more yards per game. 

Your logic is flawed. Perhaps your logic needs to take its talents to south beach for a little R&R.

[Trentwannabe]

9 hours ago, ILoveTheVikings said:

No they weren't. In fact they were near the bottom.

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

Wrong.

Being conservative watching this video, not counting the deep passes that were off finger tips or too far inside, as well as the play to Clay against Miami, there are 29 drops here.

 

[Trentwannabe]

8 hours ago, Counselor said:

Sauced

See above brah.