Thoughts on Josh Allen

[Fixxxer]

 

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, GSUeagles14 said:

newtons past comp %s say not... but since you guarentee things i guess we should all just agree?

I don't know where you're getting your numbers.

1 hour ago, wackywabbit said:

Josh Allen was always considered an amazing physical athlete pre-draft. Size, speed, arm strength are all top notch. I still think he has the highest upside of the whole draft class.

I think people basing QB upside purely on physical tools is an oft-repeated mistake.

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I don't know where you're getting your numbers.

He's been a sub 60% guy throughout his entire career prior to this year is what I think he is talking about. Only one year over 60 in his career before this one

[jrry32]

Just now, Forge said:

He's been a sub 60% guy throughout his entire career prior to this year is what I think he is talking about. Only one year over 60 in his career before this one

Okay, but Allen was far less accurate in college and has been far less accurate in the NFL thus far. 

[Forge]

Just now, jrry32 said:

Okay, but Allen was far less accurate in college and has been far less accurate in the NFL thus far. 

Absolutely. I can't speak for the OP, but that's why I have made mention of Cam a few times because we have seen how effective he can be "only" as a 60% passer. He's not the greatest quarterback ever, but damn effective. Same for Kaep. 

Now, it's easier said than done for Allen, as both you and I said in this thread, he's never been a 60% passer, even in college, but if he can just get to that mark, I Think he's going to be a very effective quarterback. Whether he gets to that point? I have no idea. Even though 60% is a lot more attainable than the 65% most people complete nowadays, it's still not going to be easy for him. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The same arm that's about as inaccurate as any I've ever seen? He has the same exact issues as Lamar Jackson, but Lamar Jackson has generational athleticism at QB. What does Josh Allen? Generational arm strength? I don't think so. Generational athleticism? Nope. Generational accuracy? Absolutely not. So what is it?!

Generational is a term that gets thrown around a little too much (like elite), but it's at that precipice for sure. I think the better terminology is special. He can make throws that are pretty ridiculous. On the run, into windows, way downfield, well down the field and at outside of the hashmarks.  He's just not doing it anywhere near consistently, and he has some of the most ridiculous misfires you'll ever see. But the arm is definitely there if it can be tamed accuracy wise, which is, quite honestly, pretty unlikely. Even the most unbiased, ardent opponent of Allen's wouldn't fight the talk about his arm too much. He also is really good throwing on the run in my opinion (actually think he's better at that then when he's standing in the pocket - almost like he overthinks the throw when he's not running). Now, I don't want to get too caught up in single individual throws, but this gif is what people (namely NFL GMs and the like) salivate over when talking about potentially harnessing Allen's arm (which is waaaaaaaaaaaay easier said than done). 

I mean, that's a pretty ridiculous throw. 48 yards in the air, back corner of the end zone on the run without setting over pretty solid coverage. That's impressive. Now, it's a single pass, so it means nothing. But it's the kind of thing that talent evaluators simply salivate over, right or wrong. The arm comparison between Jackson and Allen is not even close in my opinion. They both have the accuracy issues as you indicated. But you harness that with Allen, and you really have a guy that can make any throw, at any time, etc etc. I don't think that you have that with Jackson. You could certainly argue that Jackson is more likely to become competent with his arm, however. 

As for Jackson's generational athleticism? Absolutely, wouldn't argue that. I would argue that it means less than Allen's arm to some people, however, particularly given that Allen has pretty solid mobility (obviously not generational, but definitely good) on his own. I'm sure that there are some teams that had Jackson rated higher on their board, and obviously we know that at least one team had Allen higher. 

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Sure, and then they drafted him 7th overall after not making him try out at WR at the combine. Weird how that works.

I mean, one guy runs a 4.75, is a little leggy, has nominal core flexibility and lacks the ability to create space in short burst. 

The other guy is Lamar Jackson with speed probably in the 4.4's, generational athleticism, amazing agility. 

Jackson could actually succeed as a wide receiver. There's no reason to think that Allen would. 

[Jakuvious]

4 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

 

Would you consider Trubisky a running QB? He had 9 less attempts then Josh Allen.

Trubisky had 21 fewer rushing attempts than Allen. It was 89 for Allen to 68 for Trubisky. That's...not even close to 9.

And that's on fewer snaps for Allen, too. Trubisky attempted 114 more passes. Part of the difference there is that ratio. Trubisky ran once every 7ish pass attempts. Allen ran once every 4ish rush attempts. They're only even as close as they are because Allen played fewer games.

[Trentwannabe]

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

Trubisky had 21 fewer rushing attempts than Allen. It was 89 for Allen to 68 for Trubisky. That's...not even close to 9.

And that's on fewer snaps for Allen, too. Trubisky attempted 114 more passes. Part of the difference there is that ratio. Trubisky ran once every 7ish pass attempts. Allen ran once every 4ish rush attempts. They're only even as close as they are because Allen played fewer games.

I was looking at nfl.com for rush attempts and I could have swore it said Trubisky had 80 but it is possible I misread.

My point though is, people see the highlights and numbers and just assume Allen is taking off running all the time or the offense is designed for him to run like it is in Baltimore for Jackson. 

In last weeks game he has 2 designed runs and only "rushed" 9 times including 3 QB sneaks. He can run and has shown the mobility to do it effectively for now, but I don't consider him a running QB like Tyrod was or Lamar Jackson is now. 

Edit: Yeah I 100% misread the numbers on Trubisky. Not sure where I got 80 from.

[Trentwannabe]

11 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Sure, and then they drafted him 7th overall after not making him try out at WR at the combine. Weird how that works.

This would hold merit if it was the Bills that asked Jackson to go to WR but it wasn't. In fact a few local Bills reporters reported that the Bills had Lamar 4th on their board behind Allen.

10 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

And yeah, Allen scrambled on pass plays better than Jackson did because defenses clearly aren't trying to put spies on him or stop him - congratulations

lol. This is false.

Both Miami games Alonso spied him and failed miserably, the Lions effectively spied him, as did the Pats. The Jets likely would have had Lee not been suspended before the game.

[1ForTheThumb]

On 1/1/2019 at 7:55 AM, Art_Vandalay said:

I think he's the perfect QB for Buffalo. He embraces the cold, small market city and has the measurables to play there. I still think Cleveland made a mistake taking Baker over Josh, and it'll show when we get a larger sample of cold weather games.

Wrong; accuracy is king.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, Trentwannabe said:

lol. This is false.

Both Miami games Alonso spied him and failed miserably, the Lions effectively spied him, as did the Pats. The Jets likely would have had Lee not been suspended before the game.

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/dolphins-vs-bills-highlights-week-17

2:20 - Josh Allen slips, Dolphins think he's down, he runs for like 10 yards. No spy. Fluke play.

5:00 - Zone coverage that turns into man, nobody spies the QB - run for 30 or so yards.

6:25 - PA fake against all out blitz + a rollout. Man coverage across the board, no spy. TD run.

Where is this idea that the Dolphins spied him lol and I haven't even gone through the Lions and Pats tape yet, but if it's anything like the recent Dolphins game, nobody even tried to spy him on any of his long runs - like I said it's just teams letting a decently athletic dude run free.

[childofpudding]

12 hours ago, Fixxxer said:

 

He has his moments, but you have to chuckle when the first 5 minutes of the highlights video is preseason + the first game of the season when the Bills are down 40-0 and Allen has already thrown a couple picks. I mean, the first highlight they showed of the regular season was a 10-yard scramble when they were down 40-0 in the 3rd quarter. That's kind of funny.

[Trentwannabe]

56 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/dolphins-vs-bills-highlights-week-17

2:20 - Josh Allen slips, Dolphins think he's down, he runs for like 10 yards. No spy. Fluke play.

5:00 - Zone coverage that turns into man, nobody spies the QB - run for 30 or so yards.

6:25 - PA fake against all out blitz + a rollout. Man coverage across the board, no spy. TD run.

Where is this idea that the Dolphins spied him lol and I haven't even gone through the Lions and Pats tape yet, but if it's anything like the recent Dolphins game, nobody even tried to spy him on any of his long runs - like I said it's just teams letting a decently athletic dude run free.

So you really just looked at highlights lol. That is the exact point I made in another comment about how people watch the highlights and think he is a running QB. But I digress..

1st play: Kiko moves up and as soon as Allen falls he comes up to get him and fails miserably. No one thought he was down, they all tried to get him.

2nd play: No direct spy but a blitz from the MLB likely with the idea to not allow Allen to leave the pocket.

3rd play: Do teams typically spy when they blitz? Kind of defeats the purpose leaves you thin in the secondary.

[Trentwannabe]

14 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Im not saying the picks happened at any particular time, just that they happened literally every time he attempted 30 passes.

I mean it also happen with Baker 8 out of 10 times he through over 30 passes. Four of those  games were either 2 or 3 INT games. 

Darnold did it 5 times out of 8 games of 30+ attempts with those 4  games being 2 INT, 2 INT, 3 INT and 4 INT.

Rosen did it 5 out of 6 times with those 5 games being 1INT, 2 INT, 1INT, 3INT, 1INT

All this tells me is rookies throw a lot of picks, especially when they're throwing a lot. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

24 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

So you really just looked at highlights lol. That is the exact point I made in another comment about how people watch the highlights and think he is a running QB. But I digress..

1st play: Kiko moves up and as soon as Allen falls he comes up to get him and fails miserably. No one thought he was down, they all tried to get him.

2nd play: No direct spy but a blitz from the MLB likely with the idea to not allow Allen to leave the pocket.

3rd play: Do teams typically spy when they blitz? Kind of defeats the purpose leaves you thin in the secondary.

I watched the highlights primarily for the "highlight" running plays.....which were all there lol

1st play again it's highly likely Alonso is covering the RB than it is to believe he's in a spy. Note how once he sees the RB in pass pro he comes up then sees him slip and then the flukiness begins. Again, no spy on this play whatsoever.

2nd play: Yeah, no. That's not how teams rush if they want to prevent a QB from leaving the pocket lol

3rd play: Yes. See what Atlanta did to New England in the playoffs. Most of it involves overloading one side and moving the spy to the other, but a lot of teams will blitz + spy. Miami never spied on any of these plays.