furti Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 What do you think, how many players will the Eagles have with 400+ receiving yards? And why is that important? Let's get to it a bit later. --- Just for context, in 2016, there were 120 players with at least that many yards caught, so that makes the league average 3.75. 2 players (3 teams) 3 players (10 teams) - Philadelphia among others, that made the Eagles below average last year 4 players (13 teams) 5 players (4 teams) 6 players (2 teams) - New England and San Diego In terms of history for the Eagles 2016 [7-9]: 3 players 2015 [7-9]: 2 players 2014 [10-6]: 4 players 2013 [10-6]: 6 players 2012 [4-12]: 4 players 2011 [8-8]: 4 players 2010 [10-6]: 5 players 2009 [11-5]: 4 players --- In brackets, you can see the w-l for each season. For the Eagles in the above years: Combined record for 5-6 players is 20-12. Combined record for 4 players is 33-31 Combined record for 3- players is 14-18 For the NFL in 2016. Combined record for 5-6 players is 57-37-2. Combined record for 4 players is 104-103-1 Combined record for 3- players is 93-114-1 Conclusion I know this is no concrete evidence, but still interesting (in my view) and gives us an indication about potential success. Seems like there is some level of correlation between the two, as the NFL is getting more and more a passing league. I know this is a small sample size and there are also outliers. Also I did not take into account those players, who were just shy of the 400 yard threshold. Anyways... --- So, back to the original question. What do you think, how many players will the Eagles have with 400+ receiving yards? I am going with 5, although I have a feeling someone is going to come short due to injury, but is going to be eventually replaced by someone else Jeffery (~1,000 yards), Smith (~650 yards), Agholor (~550 yards), Ertz (~700 yards), Sproles (~450 yards), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Interesting observation. I'll respond in more detail after work, but I think Jeffery, Smith, Ertz, and Sproles get 400 receiving yards assuming they're healthy. I don't know if Agholor gets it. If he's the same player we've seen, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLick12 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 I think Agholor should get it just to through the sheer volume of playing time he is looking at. Another guy that should get it this season is Trey Burton, who I would imagine will benefit as well without J-Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Jeffery Smith Hollins Ertz Maybe 1 more, not sure who though. Agholor is still showing me nothing to have confidence in him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
furti Posted August 23, 2017 Author Share Posted August 23, 2017 Regarding Agholor, he almost cracked 400 last year, while he was practically the worst graded wr in the league. I think the targets Matthews got last year are going to decrease, but Wentz will still use a lot of short and intermediate throws to the slot, to the TEs and to Sproles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Agholor started 14 games. His lack of production wasn't due to a lack of chances. He had more than enough chances to produce. He dropped those chances. Yes, Matthews is gone. But now we have Alshon. We have Smith. We have guys like Hollins too. Theres a chance Agholor gets even less looks this year. We have more weapons. Agholor couldn't produce competing with Bryce Treggs and Paul Turner for snaps. How is he going to produce competing against an Alshon Jeffery? Again, assuming he is who we think he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninjapirate Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Over 400? Give me Jeffrey, Smith and Ertz for sure. And I think sproles might be able to just sneak in to give us 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EaglesPeteC Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 God for a team that threw that much last year to only have 3 is really bad...... We won't have a good running game again, so I think it'll be 5 Alshon Torrey Smith Ertz Sproles Agholor OR Hollins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLick12 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Phire said: Agholor started 14 games. His lack of production wasn't due to a lack of chances. He had more than enough chances to produce. He dropped those chances. Yes, Matthews is gone. But now we have Alshon. We have Smith. We have guys like Hollins too. Theres a chance Agholor gets even less looks this year. We have more weapons. Agholor couldn't produce competing with Bryce Treggs and Paul Turner for snaps. How is he going to produce competing against an Alshon Jeffery? Again, assuming he is who we think he is. I think if he's playing out of the slot, he'll get more opportunities there than he would on the outside also having Jeffery be the focus of most defenses doesn't hurt. Wentz really hasn't shown that he can throw with consistency deep or on the outside. I really think Torrey Smith is going to suffer the most in terms of targets and catch %. If Agholor can get any separation out of the slot and catch the football with any semblance of reliability he should be an easy 400+ yard receiver with how much Doug spreads the field and throws the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeezla Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Is Agholor gonna be able to handle the shallow crossing routes that J Matt had to run all the time? Because a lot of times those resulted in J Matt taking a huge hit that a lot of WR's don't get up from. Once Nelson gets popped a couple times, I'm guessing his confidence and hands go right back to Shelton Gibson status. What I'm really saying is Marcus Johnson will go for over 400 yards. Our top 7 receivers will be Alshon (1200 yards) Torrey (850 yards) Ertz (760 yards) Marcus Johnson (440 yards) Agholor (380 yards) Hollins (350 yards) Sproles (300 yards) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
furti Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 That seems to be a bit too optimistic, as you are over 4,200 with those seven. And there is also Celek, Burton, Pumphrey, Smallwood who should account for at least 500 combined if not more. I think the expectation for Jeffery is he is going to have a monster season. I agree he is going to have a 1,000 yard season or a close to 1,000 yard season, but not an Antonio Brown like season with double digit TDs. Targetwise, he is our true number one with 120-130, in the range Matthews was targeted in the last two years. With a bit better catch % and ypc, he should be better than JMatt was, even if he is out for a game or two due to injury. Since Torrey will be mainly a deep threat, where Carson had his struggles, i think he will have a low (50%) catch ratio with a high ypc, say ~ with 80 targets and 16-17 yards per catch. Ertz had 112 and 106 targets respectively, I think that should be around 90 this year with all the weapons around. Then there is Agholor. I think he gets like 60-70 targets, with a high catch rate and low ypc, so a 45-500 line seems realistic. Sproles rounds out the top five, i think he is going to be in line with his usual Philly production: averaged around 70 targets and 50 catches and 400ish yards. That is my top five: 420-440 targets. That means around 100 targets for everyone else ( i guess wentz will attempt significantly less than last year) with 62% and 11 ypc, that is another 6-700 yards. This should bring Carson to around 4,000 for the season, where I expect him to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I honestly feel like both Hollins and Marcus Johnson would be better getting the play time that Agholor will be getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blahstoise Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Sproles, Jeffrey and Ertz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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