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Von’s Trade Value

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19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well I don't disagree that Von's performance has been better than Elway's the last 2 years lol. I think the reality is that if we are rebuilding, then no one should be considered untradeable.   I mean, let's face it, no one is giving us much for Elway.  ¬¬    Still, if we aren't going to contend until, say, 2021, then getting an absolute haul could in fact help us be better then...albeit make us much worse now.  So it's a matter of whether the future return is worth the hit now, or the chance of decreased production at fairly high cost when we are good enough to contend.

But, dudes, it also isn't the time to sell at a perceived market value - Von's entering his age-30 year with an elite, generational skill set and track record, and no history of injury.  His style of play and skill set age quite well - expecting peak performance at age 30-32 is actually a very reasonable proposition.   

Mack's return should be the absolute floor.  Yes, I know Mack is 25 - but he also was holding out, with only 1 last year left, and taking away all of OAK's leverage, who were desperate to deal him.   And the team trading for him had to sign him to just under 24M a year.   Von costs 17-18M a year for 3 years for any team acquiring him.  That's a huge gain in cap health.    As Von's skill set hasn't exhibited any signs of imminent decline,  an All-Pro, generational talent at below-market prices with 3 years of security is worth far more than a late 1st. 

Given we don't have any pressing timeline, we have cap health again, and Von's not in anywhere close to decline phase - Elway shouldn't even bother returning calls unless 2 1st round picks are in the equation, and if it's a contender, additional Day 2 returns.   And none of this 1st-for-2nd business, either - we can return a 3rd for 1st.    The difference is that we aren't in a must-sell position yet.    Now, if we are in 2019's offseason, and we're still not close to contention, then we've got to start lowering expectations.   But with Von at peak and 3 years left, it has to be an OMG-Elway-can't turn that down type offer.   And frankly, a late 1st isn't even close to cutting that.   I say the above as a guy who's always held we should cut bait / sell on players at risk of declining production 1 year too early rather than 1 year too late.   We're just not at that stage yet with Von IMO.

I think it's far more likely nothing happens this year.  I think next offseason, it's a very real scenario.  But if this year is a thing, Elway is right to aim very high, well beyond what's being discussed here.

I think this offseason is more ideal than next and the answer as to why is easy recency effect.  

People see bears with the number 1 defense in the league. And they credit most of the Bears success for Mack. Even though they added a lot of other pieces.

This league is reactionary.  If Elway can use the reactionary tendencies of the league to get max value for Von I say see ya regardless of what the fan base thinks.

Von is in my top 5 broncos of all time. Hes been a cornerstone for us for the past 8 years. Well worth that second pick.Have nothing but love for him but it's a business. If we can get a premium for him it's a no brainer to move now. 

If Elway can use the first pick of his career as a gm to get picks to turn this franchise back around long term I think it's a move that needs to be done. I just hope a team doesn't offer a good haul only for elway to not back the move for backlash. Kinda like Joe Thomas in 2015 . He was closer to the end than Von and we were offering a nice package for him. The Cleveland gm said the package was more than fair but he didn't want to be the guy who traded Joe Thomas.

Hindsight, you can't be like that I've always routed for the name on the front of the Jersey then the back of the Jersey. 

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Von Miller’s Mom is going off on Elway on Twitter - I love it. Fans will start coming out in support.

Von>john 

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Posted (edited)

Miller's trade value isn't anywhere near Mack's, and the Bears may have given up too much for Mack anyway. Miller is 30 and makes $17-$18 mil/year. That right there narrows down your potential trade suitors quite a bit, which gives a lot of leverage to whoever is interested in him. Green Bay might be game, give up their lower first round pick and some other considerations.Something interesting for you guys to consider would be a package deal with Pittsburgh that would send one of their disgruntled superstars to Denver. Getting Bell or Brown could help turn around your franchise in a hurry. 

Edited by Heinz D.

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On 1/4/2019 at 10:01 PM, broncosfan_101 said:

Is there a reason why NFL teams don’t try to weaponize their cap space like other leagues do (besides less guaranteed money)? If you took on some bad money from a contender in a Von deal (which wouldn’t have nearly the negative value to us as it does them), why couldn’t you ask for a pair of 1st’s? 

Because NFL front offices are way behind other leagues when it comes to analytics and progressive thinking 

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23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well I don't disagree that Von's performance has been better than Elway's the last 2 years lol. I think the reality is that if we are rebuilding, then no one should be considered untradeable.   I mean, let's face it, no one is giving us much for Elway.  ¬¬    Still, if we aren't going to contend until, say, 2021, then getting an absolute haul could in fact help us be better then...albeit make us much worse now.  So it's a matter of whether the future return is worth the hit now, or the chance of decreased production at fairly high cost when we are good enough to contend.

But, dudes, it also isn't the time to sell at a perceived market value - Von's entering his age-30 year with an elite, generational skill set and track record, and no history of injury.  His style of play and skill set age quite well - expecting peak performance at age 30-32 is actually a very reasonable proposition.   

Mack's return should be the absolute floor.  Yes, I know Mack is 25 - but he also was holding out, with only 1 last year left, and taking away all of OAK's leverage, who were desperate to deal him.   And the team trading for him had to sign him to just under 24M a year.   Von costs 17-18M a year for 3 years for any team acquiring him.  That's a huge gain in cap health.    As Von's skill set hasn't exhibited any signs of imminent decline,  an All-Pro, generational talent at below-market prices with 3 years of security is worth far more than a late 1st. 

Given we don't have any pressing timeline, we have cap health again, and Von's not in anywhere close to decline phase - Elway shouldn't even bother returning calls unless 2 1st round picks are in the equation, and if it's a contender, additional Day 2 returns.   And none of this 1st-for-2nd business, either - we can return a 3rd for 1st.    The difference is that we aren't in a must-sell position yet.    Now, if we are in 2019's offseason, and we're still not close to contention, then we've got to start lowering expectations.   But with Von at peak and 3 years left, it has to be an OMG-Elway-can't turn that down type offer.   And frankly, a late 1st isn't even close to cutting that.   I say the above as a guy who's always held we should cut bait / sell on players at risk of declining production 1 year too early rather than 1 year too late.   We're just not at that stage yet with Von IMO.

I think it's far more likely nothing happens this year.  I think next offseason, it's a very real scenario.  But if this year is a thing, Elway is right to aim very high, well beyond what's being discussed here.

Elway coming out and essentially saying “yeah everything is an option” was dumb even though it’s obviously true. Just say Von is our guy and if you end up trading him, trade him. Just some more Elway arrogance tbh. 

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6 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Elway coming out and essentially saying “yeah everything is an option” was dumb even though it’s obviously true. Just say Von is our guy and if you end up trading him, trade him. Just some more Elway arrogance tbh. 

Yeah, I don't blame Von's mom for tearing him a new one on Twitter lol.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, champ11 said:

Because NFL front offices are way behind other leagues when it comes to analytics and progressive thinking 

When it first came out, there were a lot of fans who LOL'd at the Browns.  Not realizing it was also a way to spend up to the floor but actually use the $ for future building than wasting it on retread vets who had no ability to help when it mattered.   Sashi Brown deserves a ton of credit for the CLE rebuild.   He basically gave them the draft and FA cap space.   And the thing is, he told the owner it was going to take 3 years - and this was Year 3.    Instead, the owner decided to keep Hue over Sashi, when the last straw was him preventing them dealing 2.1 for AJ McCarron.  We all know who was right there.    The draft has worked out well so far, but in reality Dorsey has spent a lot of that free $ on pretty iffy calls (Tyrod Taylor for 3.1 and 16M, making Landry a 16M WR for 4.1).   Dorsey's draft has obviously gone well in Rd1 and Chubb at RB, although it's puzzling they didn't get T addressed (although I really do think their UDFA Desmond Harrison has some potential, so great value there).

Sashi really did have to die so the Browns could live.

Edited by Broncofan

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3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

When it first came out, there were a lot of fans who LOL'd at the Browns.  Not realizing it was also a way to spend up to the floor but actually use the $ for future building than wasting it on retread vets who had no ability to help when it mattered.   Sashi Brown deserves a ton of credit for the CLE rebuild.   He basically gave them the draft and FA cap space.   And the thing is, he told the owner it was going to take 3 years - and this was Year 3.    Instead, the owner decided to keep Hue over Sashi, when the last straw was him preventing them dealing 2.1 for AJ McCarron.  We all know who was right there.    The draft has worked out well so far, but in reality Dorsey has spent a lot of that free $ on pretty iffy calls (Tyrod Taylor for 3.1 and 16M, making Landry a 16M WR for 4.1).   Dorsey's draft has obviously gone well in Rd1 and Chubb at RB, although it's puzzling they didn't get T addressed (although I really do think their UDFA Desmond Harrison has some potential, so great value there).

Sashi really did have to die so the Browns could live.

No doubt. A huge issue is most organizations come into each year expecting playoffs and making mostly win now moves. Even though GMs have decent job security, unlike coaches. Just a dumb league lol. 

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Elway could never trade Von. Otherwise, everyone in Denver would burn down his house, and all of his restaurants. He's the closest thing to him we've ever had. And that's past tense for Elway. Thanks but no thanks guy, your replacement is the best pass rusher in the NFL since 2012. Until he retires to join you, he runs the show now, regardless of your title.

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3 minutes ago, BullsandBroncos said:

Elway could never trade Von. Otherwise, everyone in Denver would burn down his house, and all of his restaurants. He's the closest thing to him we've ever had. And that's past tense for Elway. Thanks but no thanks guy, your replacement is the best pass rusher in the NFL since 2012. Until he retires to join you, he runs the show now, regardless of your title.

You see any potential problem there?

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