ny92mike Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 @Ragnarok I seriously doubt that what I'm showing here is gonna produce a lot of projected wins, it's still using team stats, but I'm happy so share. Again I wouldn't put any money on this at least not right now. If you're interested in working with me to adjust it with individual stats cool. There is also some scoring adjustments that need to get worked in, because it's taking the average score based on the letter grade but to bet the spread, we'd need to use something to account for a projected score of say 11. Anyway, here it is, I would normally not post this but I'm telling you now not to use these for issues mentioned above. IRL Scoring Simulated Score Away Score Home Score Winner Proj. Score Proj. Score Proj. Winner PhiladelphiaEagles GreenBayPackers 23 21 PhiladelphiaEagles NewEnglandPatriots BuffaloBills 30 16 NewEnglandPatriots WashingtonRedskins NewYorkGiants 15 21 NewYorkGiants KansasCityChiefs DetroitLions 24 23 KansasCityChiefs TennesseeTitans AtlantaFalcons 17 29 AtlantaFalcons CarolinaPanthers HoustonTexans 22 26 HoustonTexans OaklandRaiders IndianapolisColts 29 30 IndianapolisColts LosAngelesChargers MiamiDolphins 23 20 LosAngelesChargers ClevelandBrowns BaltimoreRavens 19 28 BaltimoreRavens SeattleSeahawks ArizonaCardinals 29 29 ArizonaCardinals TampaBayBuccaneers LosAngelesRams 22 33 LosAngelesRams MinnesotaVikings ChicagoBears 15 17 ChicagoBears JacksonvilleJaguars DenverBroncos 29 23 JacksonvilleJaguars DallasCowboys NewOrleansSaints 23 26 NewOrleansSaints CincinnatiBengals PittsburghSteelers 15 20 PittsburghSteelers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, PR said: I want to see Sure....So something worth mentioning is that when you review the Proj. Accuracy sheet that the percentage changes as I'm loading accumulated stats. So, I said it was 75% accurate in week one, well that was with week one stats plugged in. Now with having accumulated stats from 3 weeks, it changes the outcome of those games. So when you look at it and see 56.3 and 68.8 in the first two weeks, that's why. You'll see this in view only but removing games with projected score difference of 3 or less will increase the win % and the higher you increase that number the more accurate it becomes, basically creating locks for the weekly games. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1saDrQ0LJCYh-7YwR3TwLt_IMYjGw8TvAtcM6yFHBRTQ/edit?usp=sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Restored the first week workbook. IRL Scoring Simulated Score Away Score Home Score Winner Proj. Score Proj. Score Proj. Winner GreenBayPackers 10 ChicagoBears 3 GreenBayPackers 31 25 GreenBayPackers KansasCityChiefs 40 JacksonvilleJaguars 26 KansasCityChiefs 27 16 KansasCityChiefs LosAngelesRams 30 CarolinaPanthers 27 LosAngelesRams 32 21 LosAngelesRams BaltimoreRavens 59 MiamiDolphins 10 BaltimoreRavens 27 17 BaltimoreRavens TennesseeTitans 43 ClevelandBrowns 13 TennesseeTitans 10 17 ClevelandBrowns AtlantaFalcons 12 MinnesotaVikings 28 MinnesotaVikings 20 25 MinnesotaVikings WashingtonRedskins 27 PhiladelphiaEagles 32 PhiladelphiaEagles 21 27 PhiladelphiaEagles BuffaloBills 17 NewYorkJets 16 BuffaloBills 31 20 BuffaloBills CincinnatiBengals 20 SeattleSeahawks 21 SeattleSeahawks 31 25 CincinnatiBengals IndianapolisColts 24 LosAngelesChargers 30 LosAngelesChargers 20 n/a LosAngelesChargers SanFrancisco49ers 31 TampaBayBuccaneers 17 SanFrancisco49ers 25 14 SanFrancisco49ers NewYorkGiants 17 DallasCowboys 35 DallasCowboys 25 27 DallasCowboys DetroitLions 27 ArizonaCardinals 27 Tie 25 12 DetroitLions PittsburghSteelers 3 NewEnglandPatriots 33 NewEnglandPatriots 20 32 NewEnglandPatriots HoustonTexans 28 NewOrleansSaints 30 NewOrleansSaints 29 27 HoustonTexans DenverBroncos 16 OaklandRaiders 24 OaklandRaiders 21 27 OaklandRaiders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, ny92mike said: @Ragnarok I seriously doubt that what I'm showing here is gonna produce a lot of projected wins, it's still using team stats, but I'm happy so share. Again I wouldn't put any money on this at least not right now. If you're interested in working with me to adjust it with individual stats cool. There is also some scoring adjustments that need to get worked in, because it's taking the average score based on the letter grade but to bet the spread, we'd need to use something to account for a projected score of say 11. Anyway, here it is, I would normally not post this but I'm telling you now not to use these for issues mentioned above. IRL Scoring Simulated Score Away Score Home Score Winner Proj. Score Proj. Score Proj. Winner PhiladelphiaEagles GreenBayPackers 23 21 PhiladelphiaEagles NewEnglandPatriots BuffaloBills 30 16 NewEnglandPatriots WashingtonRedskins NewYorkGiants 15 21 NewYorkGiants KansasCityChiefs DetroitLions 24 23 KansasCityChiefs TennesseeTitans AtlantaFalcons 17 29 AtlantaFalcons CarolinaPanthers HoustonTexans 22 26 HoustonTexans OaklandRaiders IndianapolisColts 29 30 IndianapolisColts LosAngelesChargers MiamiDolphins 23 20 LosAngelesChargers ClevelandBrowns BaltimoreRavens 19 28 BaltimoreRavens SeattleSeahawks ArizonaCardinals 29 29 ArizonaCardinals TampaBayBuccaneers LosAngelesRams 22 33 LosAngelesRams MinnesotaVikings ChicagoBears 15 17 ChicagoBears JacksonvilleJaguars DenverBroncos 29 23 JacksonvilleJaguars DallasCowboys NewOrleansSaints 23 26 NewOrleansSaints CincinnatiBengals PittsburghSteelers 15 20 PittsburghSteelers Oh, I wouldn't use your stuff for it until I had had a while to compare results. I bet a fair bit and use my own system. But this could be fun to play around with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ragnarok said: Oh, I wouldn't use your stuff for it until I had had a while to compare results. I bet a fair bit and use my own system. But this could be fun to play around with. Yeah man let me know...im down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD4L Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 If I’m correct the google docs hasn’t updated the first two weeks of waiver claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whicker Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD4L said: If I’m correct the google docs hasn’t updated the first two weeks of waiver claims. There is an "Updated V2" workbook that is linked in the OP. It has up to date information 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoundrel Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 GG @ny92mike and @SirA1. Alright seriously though, y’all won’t be seeing anymore effort from me this season. Too busy. I’ll give you the best of what I got but it really won’t be ****. I’ll still be voting and commenting but the in depth schemes and game plans won’t be happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny92mike Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Counselor said: GG @ny92mike and @SirA1. Alright seriously though, y’all won’t be seeing anymore effort from me this season. Too busy. I’ll give you the best of what I got but it really won’t be ****. I’ll still be voting and commenting but the in depth schemes and game plans won’t be happening. Thanks man. I understand the game planning situation. I wish it wasnt so labor extensive. We put all that work in and when it doent go our way, really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnarok Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, ny92mike said: Thanks man. I understand the game planning situation. I wish it wasnt so labor extensive. We put all that work in and when it doent go our way, really sucks. 2011. That's how long I've been in BDL. And I have never made the playoffs. Never made the top half of the league. Mostly all my own fault, and many things I could have done differently. Plus a fair amount of truly awful QB luck. And I guess I just suck at this. Y'all will have to forgive me if I'm not pleased about people giving up 3 weeks into a season. Even when I'm out of the running, I like to use write ups to study players around the league I would have never bothered looking into before, playing with strategy, seeing what schemes work, and even winning in the last couple weeks to keep others out of the playoffs. I read a horrifying number of articles each week. But the NFL is kinda my hobby and that helps with betting. I get the frustration better than anyone. Especially when you lose to a team you were just so sure you would have beaten or someone doesn't like a strategy you came up with. At least try up until the trade deadline. Then fire sale if you want, play 'bracket buster', and start scouting for the draft. Not saying we all need 2000 words a week, but some give a damn please. I know it looks like I'm calling out Counselor, but he isn't the only person. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlash Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 2 hours ago, ny92mike said: Thanks man. I understand the game planning situation. I wish it wasnt so labor extensive. We put all that work in and when it doent go our way, really sucks. Don't buy it! Last year Dingo kept telling me all week how he had no intention of submitting a gameplan against me and to not waste my time. Lies. That mofo had a full gameplan written. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFLukic Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 Tfw you draft the 3 DROY favourites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlash Posted September 26, 2019 Author Share Posted September 26, 2019 55 minutes ago, WFLukic said: Tfw you draft the 3 DROY favourites. Tfw you're banking on 'favourites' after 3 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 1 hour ago, WFLukic said: Tfw you draft the 3 DROY favourites. At the beginning of the year at least, Devin Bush was on that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFLukic Posted September 26, 2019 Share Posted September 26, 2019 The IR/Suspensions are still out of whack on my spreadsheet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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