Season Recap

[matt79511]

3 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Lol, we've done it twice under Garrett.

And twice when he was OC.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

4 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

And twice when he was OC.

Good luck in life making broad decisions based on anecdotal experiences and tiny sample sizes. 

That we might regress towards the mean on win/loss record in games decided by 1 possession or less is backed by data. That there is something legitimate to a "good year, bad year, good year, bad year" trend is not accurate.

[textaz03]

 

 

[matt79511]

9 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Good luck in life making broad decisions based on anecdotal experiences and tiny sample sizes. 

That we might regress towards the mean on win/loss record in games decided by 1 possession or less is backed by data. That there is something legitimate to a "good year, bad year, good year, bad year" trend is not accurate.

You act like 4 pairs of NFL seasons isn’t a 128 game sample- and that the sample of us going without a Final 4 finish isn’t much larger than that.

Not saying we’re gonna go 13-3, then 9-7, then 11-5, then 8-8, and so on for the rest of time. I’m saying that, while Jones family is the one constant in our conference title game drought (which I don’t think most statistical models would assess to be attributed to pure chance), Garrett has been here in a sizable capacity for half of it and is most certainly not without blame. I don’t think we should distinguish his time between OC and HC to the extent that we do, and while that would improve his record... it also shows some eery parallels.

I mean, we’ll see. I am aware that, just because our last 3 years strongly resemble our ‘07-‘09 seasons, that doesn’t mean we’re gonna start next year 1-7 and kick off next decade with 3 straight 8-8s. But isn’t Einstein’s definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result?

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

52 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

You act like 4 pairs of NFL seasons isn’t a 128 game sample- and that the sample of us going without a Final 4 finish isn’t much larger than that.

Not saying we’re gonna go 13-3, then 9-7, then 11-5, then 8-8, and so on for the rest of time. I’m saying that, while Jones family is the one constant in our conference title game drought (which I don’t think most statistical models would assess to be attributed to pure chance), Garrett has been here in a sizable capacity for half of it and is most certainly not without blame. I don’t think we should distinguish his time between OC and HC to the extent that we do, and while that would improve his record... it also shows some eery parallels.

I mean, we’ll see. I am aware that, just because our last 3 years strongly resemble our ‘07-‘09 seasons, that doesn’t mean we’re gonna start next year 1-7 and kick off next decade with 3 straight 8-8s. But isn’t Einstein’s definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result?

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this. What I disagree with is the implication that "Good Season, Bad Season" is a trend, as if because we had a good season, now we are going to have a bad one. There are many reasons next year might not be good. One of those reasons is NOT that we just had a good season. 

[matt79511]

24 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this. What I disagree with is the implication that "Good Season, Bad Season" is a trend, as if because we had a good season, now we are going to have a bad one. There are many reasons next year might not be good. One of those reasons is NOT that we just had a good season. 

Making the playoffs this year doesn’t cause us to miss the playoffs next year, sure. But going 8-3 with a point differential of minus-8 (what we did post-bye week/Amari trade) is just not sustainable. Throw in the on-off cycles of  ‘07-‘10 and ‘14-‘17 and I think there’s clearly a “here we go again” sort of feel here.

All of which can be reframed as to say that staving off regression and making the playoffs again next year might be JG’s greatest accomplishment as HC if he can pull it off. He has the benefit of a young roster and ample cap flexibility, but that won’t probably won’t be enough without a dramatic change in the offensive approach.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

11 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

Making the playoffs this year doesn’t cause us to miss the playoffs next year, sure. But going 8-3 with a point differential of minus-8 (what we did post-bye week/Amari trade) is just not sustainable. Throw in the on-off cycles of  ‘07-‘10 and ‘14-‘17 and I think there’s clearly a “here we go again” sort of feel here.

All of which can be reframed as to say that staving off regression and making the playoffs again next year might be JG’s greatest accomplishment as HC if he can pull it off. He has the benefit of a young roster and ample cap flexibility, but that won’t probably won’t be enough without a dramatic change in the offensive approach.

This is the nuance that your argument deserves. Totally fair points.

In my opinion, the opportunity to make the playoffs again may not be to stave off regression to the mean, but rather to experience fewer close games in general. We were the first playoff team in 30 years to have all of our starters under 30, and if we can re-sign Tank, we won't lose any major contributors. If a lot of those players can take steps forward, .500 in close games could be enough if there are only a handful of them.

[DaBoys]

Apparantly, our offense prides themselves in points per drive instead of total points, and yards per drive instead of total yards, because we are a "ball control" offense.

 

That style will invite tight games that can go either way.

[quiller]

11 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Apparantly, our offense prides themselves in points per drive instead of total points, and yards per drive instead of total yards, because we are a "ball control" offense.

 

That style will invite tight games that can go either way.

This is a very true analysis what also is true is this kind of offense best suits our best player Zeke and really helps our D as we are undersized up front and succeed by playing with a ton of energy 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

17 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Apparantly, our offense prides themselves in points per drive instead of total points, and yards per drive instead of total yards, because we are a "ball control" offense.

 

That style will invite tight games that can go either way.

I don’t think “pride” is the right term. But it’s not apples to apples to compare total points if one game has 12 possessions and another one only has 8. You have to contextualize it somehow, otherwise “the defense held the Rams to less than their season average in total points” is completely misleading. They scored on nearly every drive, they just had many fewer possessions than usual.

[cowboyfanin2890]

On 1/13/2019 at 12:07 AM, HDsportsfan said:

Technically we have a 5th option year with Dak.

Dak was a 4th round pick and 5th year options only apply to first round picks if I recall correctly. 

 

Overall the season ended better or as good as I thought it could but it was the way we lost that is killer. Bad coaching decisions(again) and a QB that for some reason can hit the tight window but not a wide open receiver. Dak killed us multiple drives on Sunday and he was the main reason our D was on the field as long as they was. Yes they sucked but there was more than one opportunity that he had to get first downs and missed. He looks to be a decent leader and reader of D's but he has to get better on wide open receivers and pocket awareness or we will have this same conversation no later than we have this year or earlier. 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

1 hour ago, cowboyfanin2890 said:

Dak was a 4th round pick and 5th year options only apply to first round picks if I recall correctly. 

This is true, but the Franchise Tag is available. Basically a more expensive version of the same thing.

[DaBoys]

2 hours ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

I don’t think “pride” is the right term. 

They kind of do though.

There was the one guy who covers the Cowboys that originally tweeted about the points per drive thing. I can't remember who, but he showed that we were actually an average to slightly below average offense instead the bottom ranked offense that the bulk stats suggested.

 

 

Then you had Jerry Jones after the Chiefs Rams instant classic saying we wouldn't play that way against them, because we have a different style. 

Jerry Jones, on whether Cowboys could play a shootout like Chiefs-Rams, to @1053thefan: "I don’t ever see us in an air-out like that. I see us really controlling the ball.

[DaBoys]

The point isn't whether they take pride in it or not. The point is that the ball control offense creates close games by design. We won't typically blow people out of the water because we aren't really trying to. 

And with a good defense it's not a bad idea.

 

 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

44 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

The point isn't whether they take pride in it or not. The point is that the ball control offense creates close games by design. We won't typically blow people out of the water because we aren't really trying to. 

And with a good defense it's not a bad idea.

 

 

I see. Sorry, I thought you were mocking me for bringing up the points per drive stat.

I agree that by design, we end up in closer games because of the style of football we play. Interestingly, though, the Saints are the only team with fewer possessions than us this season, and Kansas City was bottom 4.