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onejayhawk

It was a Hell of a Run

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Most of us were thinking nine wins and maybe a playoff spot. Instead, it took someone like Tom Brady to beat us in overtime. 

Next year we won't be outperforming expectations.

usatsi_10356964.jpg?w=1000&h=600&crop=1

Pop a top and enjoy it. You did good.

Oh, yeah. Apologies to Fat Drac, but I like our high kickers.

article-2457772-18B8761400000578-822_634

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2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Most of us were thinking nine wins and maybe a playoff spot. Instead, it took someone like Tom Brady to beat us in overtime. 

Next year we won't be outperforming expectations.

usatsi_10356964.jpg?w=1000&h=600&crop=1

Pop a top and enjoy it. You did good.

Oh, yeah. Apologies to Fat Drac, but I like our high kickers.

article-2457772-18B8761400000578-822_634

No need to replace the Buttkicker though. BTW: Upskirting is punishable in the UK nowadays!

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Was too painful to post anything yesterday, but it was a superb season. So many reasons for optimism. Sort out the LBs and Dbs in the offseason and we will be a force. I think its fair to say we can go all in at this point. The Championship window is well and truly open.

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Yeah if you told me we would go 13-3, lose in OT to the Pats in the ACG and that Mahomes would be that good, I'd have signed it. Great season. Shame it's over but we are going into the right direction 

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3 hours ago, Habbsawce said:

Hell, just getting a playoff win at home makes me feel better about the future.

Just kicking *** in a playoff game makes me feel better about the future.

J

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Hi, Chiefs fans. 

This year I tried my hand at a Wins Above Replacement model for football, so I figured I'd share the Chiefs results and the conclusions I drew from it just because of how insane their season was.

It's not a real WAR model in the sense that it is in baseball, it's more the wins added by the plays on which each player touched the ball (or was targeted), so it's basically just trying to contextualize their statistics based on my database of the last ten seasons (i.e. it doesn't "separate" the receiver / runner's value from his offensive line or quarterback or whatever). Here was my final table on the Chiefs' regular season with everyone who touched the ball (or was targeted) on offense.

 

Kansas City Chiefs WAR Leaders (Non-Passing)
RB Kareem Hunt +1.70
RB Damien Williams +1.08
WR Tyreek Hill +0.85
TE Travis Kelce +0.69
WR Sammy Watkins +0.49
WR Chris Conley +0.36
WR DeMarcus Robinson +0.36
TE Demetrius Harris +0.35
RB Spencer Ware +0.33
FB Anthony Sherman +0.19
QB Patrick Mahomes II +0.18
RB Charcandrick West +0.13
WR De'Anthony Thomas +0.13
RB Darrel Williams +0.06
QB Chad Henne -0.01
WR Gehrig Dieter -0.01
WR Marcus Kemp -0.01
WR Kelvin Benjamin -0.02

*Mahomes led the NFL in passing WAR at +4.79. Drew Brees finished second at +3.72, more than a full win behind.

I have a couple of things to say here. First of all, losing Hunt is a blow obviously, but I think they've got something in Williams. I mean, 1.08 WAR is impressive, but when you consider he only really contributed in, like, 6 games, it becomes nothing short of amazing. He should be something to look forward to next year.

Hunt actually led the team in receiving WAR at +1.02. The reason why is probably because of his 14.5 Y/R average and his touchdown rate of 20% of his 35 targets (not to mention that he wasn't the target of any interceptions). That's pretty great production, but Williams should be able to produce well next year. 

Tyreek Hill only contributed +0.61 receiving WAR despite scoring 12 touchdowns and having 1,479 yards receiving. The reason why: he was the target of 6 interceptions, and my WAR model is the WAR of the plays he was targeted, so it docks him for those. Without those INTs, his receiving WAR is easily above 1.00 and leads the team, but interceptions are huge. Hill is a cheat code, and he'll only get better as his connection with Mahomes gets more ingrained into the offense and they get more practice reps together. The relatively low WAR is a similar story for Kelce, the target of 3 interceptions.

One funny thing: even the godly Chiefs offense couldn't make Kelvin Benjamin look good, as he finished with -0.02 WAR for the Chiefs (and -1.58 for Buffalo).

Overall, I think this bodes well for the Chiefs' future. Williams was good, but I don't think people realized just how good he was. According to my model, he was +1.08 WAR good, and he didn't even play a ton of the year.

They could be something special next year too, something scary.

 

Edit: My WAR model is based on my % +- model, which (like FO) tries to find a % over the average team. Kansas City finished second at +22.93% (behind New Orleans at +24.88%) and led the NFL in total Offensive WAR at +6.85. 

Edited by AlNFL19

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This was not a "hell of a run".....that implies that its over!!!   This was a hell of a START to a long , hell of a run.

 

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11 hours ago, jimmydee said:

This was not a "hell of a run".....that implies that its over!!!   This was a hell of a START to a long , hell of a run.

 

Each season is a new race, so this season's race is over. However, you have a point--there is also the marathon to consider. 

J

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Just finished working through the WAR data (see a few posts above for explanation) for the AFC, and the Chiefs totally wiped the floor with the conference. It's currently only for offensive skill players.

The AFC's Ten Most Valuable Players - Including Passing, Rushing, and Receiving (WAR is based on plays when they touched the ball / were the target of a pass - it's a "team effort" for the player's WAR)

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City - +4.97 WAR

2. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles - +2.29 WAR - This is insane. Mahomes' WAR is 2.68 better, meaning Gordon was closer to the AFC's No. 264 offensive skill player, Ryan Tannehill, who had a WAR of -0.36, than he was to Mahomes.

3. Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles - +1.95 WAR

T-4. Tom Brady, QB, New England - +1.81 WAR

T-4. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston - +1.81 WAR

6. Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City - +1.70 WAR

7. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh - +1.67 WAR

8. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis - +1.66 WAR

9. Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles - +1.58 WAR - Note there is overlap between passing WAR for QB and receiving WAR for receivers (add all receivers WARs up = passing WAR)

10. James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh - +1.56 WAR

 

Some crazy notes on the Chiefs specifically:

Average WAR percentile among AFC offensive skill players: 74.53

Median WAR percentile among AFC offensive skill players: 80.75

Lowest WAR percentile among AFC offensive skill players (Kelvin Benjamin, -0.02 WAR): 40.90

The NFC is where most of the NFL's offensive skill talent is, with the exception of the Chiefs, apparently, so those numbers shouldn't be as insane, but holy cow.

 

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Hunt was on pace to be 2nd or 3rd, either way ahead of Rivers. That's turning out to be quite a draft.

J

Edited by onejayhawk

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