dll2000 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Madmike90 said: Why can't that be Davis tho? Davis himself was a 4th round pick and has only just turned 26 with extremely low mileage on the clock...why is a rookie going to be better than him? Put his college production and work up numbers up against a lot of this class and he is easily better than them... I don't want him to be an out and out lead back...but as a "starter" in a RBBC approach with Cohen,Patterson and a rookie sprinkled in I would be happy to move Howard at this point and I am one of his bigger fans...he just doesn't fit the offence but he is still a quality player. I'm thinking 90% of rookies won't be better than him. Like 3 or maybe 4 will be and it's hard to know which 3 or 4 including the early rounders. You know he can play in NFL at a moderate to good level. These other guys are a hope. I mean he outplayed Seattles first round pick last year. Their 7th round pick, Carson, outplayed them both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLCbear Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 23 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: I’m admittedly lower than most on Howard, but what specifically is he better at than Davis right now? Take Howard’s 2016 out of it because it was 3 years ago - Howard’s YPC is less than Davis’ since 2016. He’s significantly worse in the passing game and as such offers far less value on 3rd down or in passing situations which somewhat limits the playbook when he’s on the field. Howard is noticeably slower on tape IMO. Howard has unquestionably less agility. Neither guy fumbles, so that’s a push. I think there’s a really compelling argument to be made that the only thing Howard has over Davis is opportunity. Howard as a rookie had only to beat out mid-round bust Jeremy Langford to land a primary gig. Davis was drafted as depth behind entrenched starter Carlos Hyde and then was signed to the Seattle practice squad behind multiple backs far more talented than Langford they had drafted including a first round pick. When finally getting a real opportunity late in 2017 due to attrition and then in a more regular role in 2018 he’s been effective (4.2 ypc on 180 carries since start of 2017, adding 49/345/1 as a receiver). Extrapolate Davis’ rate of production as a rusher in 2017-2018 over Howard’s 2018 rushing workload and he’s at 1,050 yards rushing and 7 TD, and blows Howard away as a passing game asset. We don’t obviously know the translation of more than double the carries and we can’t speak a ton to his durability because he’s never had that workload in the NFL (no missed games in college 2013-14 when he was a starter) though nearest I can tell he hasn’t missed an NFL game to injury since 2015. But, even with some statistical regression with more volume he’s at least arguably on par in terms of actual ability with Howard as a runner, and far superior as a receiver. I hear you .. Hope Davis can be a revelation and make JH expendable, who doesn't Pace Nagy and co are not going to pin our '19-'20 hopes on Davis until midseason/trade deadline .. they're not going to pin them on a mid round pick either JH, while not perfect fit, is still an established bird in hand Only way I see JH moved now or during draft is if we sign an established vet or move up pretty far in draft .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 hours ago, SLCbear said: Only way I see JH moved now or during draft is if we sign an established vet or move up pretty far in draft .. Actually, as many so defenders will probably come off the board if the first couple rounds, they may not have to move up that much. Or at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 2 hours ago, SLCbear said: I hear you .. Hope Davis can be a revelation and make JH expendable, who doesn't Pace Nagy and co are not going to pin our '19-'20 hopes on Davis until midseason/trade deadline .. they're not going to pin them on a mid round pick either JH, while not perfect fit, is still an established bird in hand Only way I see JH moved now or during draft is if we sign an established vet or move up pretty far in draft .. I think Montgomery is going to last till our pick, and I think hes the best pro in this class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said: I think Montgomery is going to last till our pick, and I think hes the best pro in this class. Love Montgomery. Like what I've seen of Snell. Surprised Sanders ran so well in the combine 40. He might be worth a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Heinz D. said: Love Montgomery. Like what I've seen of Snell. Surprised Sanders ran so well in the combine 40. He might be worth a look. Fast guys go early, Sanders will be gone somewhere in the 2nd. Montgomery, who has been repeatedly compared to Hunt, ended up testing very similarly to Hunt. He has the softest hands at the position. He has great feet, able to run balanced behind his pads. I could care less that he runs a 4.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Just now, Superman(DH23) said: Fast guys go early, Sanders will be gone somewhere in the 2nd. Montgomery, who has been repeatedly compared to Hunt, ended up testing very similarly to Hunt. He has the softest hands at the position. He has great feet, able to run balanced behind his pads. I could care less that he runs a 4.6 Montgomery is a flat out stud. If we have to lose Howard, Montgomery would be a phenomenal Bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superman(DH23) Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Heinz D. said: Montgomery is a flat out stud. If we have to lose Howard, Montgomery would be a phenomenal Bear. My dream scenario is the Bears draft Montgomery at 87, and trade JoHo for a 5th or better on draft day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLCbear Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 I think Montgomery could be TERRIFIC .. problem is who knows. Still can't see JHo going ANYWHERE until we know what we have .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Madmike90 said: Why can't that be Davis tho? Davis himself was a 4th round pick and has only just turned 26 with extremely low mileage on the clock...why is a rookie going to be better than him? Put his college production and work up numbers up against a lot of this class and he is easily better than them... I don't want him to be an out and out lead back...but as a "starter" in a RBBC approach with Cohen,Patterson and a rookie sprinkled in I would be happy to move Howard at this point and I am one of his bigger fans...he just doesn't fit the offence but he is still a quality player. I'm not saying it can't be Davis. I'm only presenting facts that indicate he's not been successful as a back who would take on 15-20 carries a game. That would make me leery of seeing him as Howard's replacement rather than a supplemental partner until he's shown that he can have an impact as a lead back. To date he has not so more properly I see him as replacing Mizzell/Cunningham in a RBBC backfield as you suggest. I'd also agree with you that Davis is probably a better bet than many of the mid round rookie prospects in this draft. Many of them are more the supplemental type as well. This goes to my comment about a rookie coming in and adding immediately in a somewhat complex offense. There's no assurance of that or that we'll be anywhere near as lucky with another rookie mid round pick as we were with Howard. I may be playing the devil's advocate here because I've also posted ideas for how trading Howard might benefit us but I'm adding to that my caution that in the past two seasons he's provided over 2300 yards of total offense and 18 rushing tds. Maybe I'm wrong but even collectively I don't see that kind of upside from Davis and a rookie and not even with Patterson in the mix. Cohen's stats are separate from this and should be. What I'm saying is we don't currently have a need to be in any rush to move on from Howard quickly and despite many opinions to the contrary a RB who scores 9 tds a year rushing and can average around 4.0 ypc can still be a fit if he's used properly and surrounded by other talent who offsets what he lacks. In a nutshell keeping Howard is also an option that's seldom mentioned. So I have but I'm really pretty worn out from debating it. We're still gonna need two dependable backs who can carry the ball 15-20 times per game if needed. Injuries to RBs aren't all that rare. That's my position and it's not likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 40 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said: My dream scenario is the Bears draft Montgomery at 87, and trade JoHo for a 5th or better on draft day. @Heinz D. Don't fall in love and then be heartbroken if they don't take him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Montgomery is my favorite of the RB potentially available at 87 though Henderson’s skill set also is a good fit and complements Davis incredibly well. The Georgia pro day is 3/20 and I’m curious to see how Holyfield runs there. If he doesn’t put up an appreciably better 40 I can see him being a guy who slides to the bottom or maybe even all the way out of the draft. He’d be a terrific buy low candidate for us in the event we... you know... have an... opening for a... goal line back... I have concerns about Holyfield as a receiver but as a guy for a specific role in short yardage situations who probably plays ST and at a league minimum cost I think that’s be a really good investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pigsooie5 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Have a hard time believing Montgomery lasts to 87. I think given the size/long speed concerns surrounding Singletary will make him available at 87 though. Met with the Bears brass recently too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 47 minutes ago, soulman said: I'm not saying it can't be Davis. I'm only presenting facts that indicate he's not been successful as a back who would take on 15-20 carries a game. There is actually pretty decent evidence that suggests otherwise. Davis has played 9 NFL games with 10+ carries. In those 9 games Davis’ total rush numbers are 125-525-3, for a 4.2 ypc average. Further, in 7 of those 9 games individually (77.8%) he averaged 4.0+ ypc, suggesting consistency as well which IMO is highly undervalued. As a receiver he had 29-169-1 receiving in those games. His ypc in games with 15+ carries is 3.8, however that’s skewed strongly by a single clunker (15-25); he was 4.0+ ypc in each of the other 4 games with 15+ carries. Here are the stat lines individually: 16-64-0 (4.0); 4-37-0 15-66-0 (4.4); 1-(-1)-0 15-25-0 (1.7); 4-18-0 10-48-0 (4.8); 2-16-0 21-101-2 (4.8); 4-23-0 12-68-1 (5.7); 2-7-0 10-33-0 (3.3); 1-2-0 15-62-0 (4.1); 7-45-0 11-58-0 (5.3); 4-22-1 —————————— 125-525-3 (4.2); 29-169-1 A fair argument can be made (and it seems to at least some extent and maybe more than some are comfortable with Pace and Nagy have made it in making him a day 1 priority add) that all Davis needs is opportunity to show himself to be a viable starting NFL RB. With that said, I FULLY expect them to further hedge that bet with another vet or (more likely) a draft pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heinz D. Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 3 hours ago, dll2000 said: @Heinz D. Don't fall in love and then be heartbroken if they don't take him. Gotcha. I'm the only dude around here who hasn't given up on Howard, though. So I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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