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Kiltman

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Jroc04

Jroc04

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11 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

As I posted above, the Redskins had an elite pass rushing unit last season and a top pass defense.  If that's all it takes for an "average" QB to be elevated to the playoffs, then sign me up.  We went a long way towards fixing our run defense this offseason, so we currently have no glaring weaknesses on that side of the ball.  It's all about staying healthy now.

Lewis and Reed were shells of themselves during that run, btw.  That defense really wasn't good, like at all.  Didn't Kaepernick put up 31 points on them in the SB?

Any stat can be misleading, especially if you look at it on a game by game basis.  But as the sample size increases, most stats will even out.  Passer rating is an example.  If you look at the top ten QBs by passer rating over the full season last year, the list has pretty much all the guys you would expect based on how we subjectively viewed their seasons last year:

1. Alex Smith

2. Drew Brees

3. Tom Brady

4. Carson Wentz

5. Jared Goff

6. Matt Stafford

7. Case Keenum

8. Aaron Rodgers

9. Phillip Rivers

10. Russell Wilson

 

Regarding the "aggressive" stat, I'll re-post what I said above:

"I posted the "aggressive" stats earlier today in this thread.  He's right on par with the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Drew Brees when it comes to that "aggressiveness" stat.  Being smart with the football is not something that should be scorned, it's something that wins football games, and should be celebrated.  If you look at that "aggressiveness" stat, Wentz is the only good QB at the top of that list.  He's surrounded by bums.  Now, maybe Wentz is just that great where he can still be a top QB making more tight window throws than any other top QB in the league, or maybe there is more luck involved than Eagles fans would like to admit and some of those 50/50 balls go the other way this year if Wentz stays that aggressive."

Two teams did give up on Smith, true.  One was a team who thought they found the wave of the future when Kaepernick was running all over teams and no one could stop him.  Turns out they were wrong, and they paid terribly for that decision.  We'll soon see if the other team regrets it as well.

It's different because the guy just objectively had a top 5 season for a QB.  We won't know if that's an outlier, or a sign that something clicked for him, until we see what he does this year.

I never said your QB can be average and win. I said he should at least be good, if he himself isnt elite, paired with an elite unit on your team. And I wouldn't categorize the Reskins' line as elite at all. They were gashed in the run game. If all you do is get upfield and blow assignments of course you'll have pressures on the QB but if the opposing team is moving the ball at will, what good are the pressures? 

24.2 pts a game, ranked 28th. 

134.1 rush yards per game, ranked last. 

213.8 pass yards per game, ranked 9th. 

347.9 total yards per game, ranked 22nd. 

You can say they were a good pass defense but they rank 15th in yards per pass attempt. Which leads one to believe that teams just ran against them because, you know, path of least resistance. And I use resistance very loosely. They were terrible against the run. Only three teams were worse per attempt. So, maybe they "hurried" the QB and were effective there but it doesn't tell the whole story. They barricaded the front door while leaving the side door wide open. 

Lewis and Reed being done is arguable. Kaep scored 2 TDs. Not a great showing but they still had players. But even if I concede that game it's only one in 30 years. It doesn't disprove anything. 

Passer rating is still a flawed stat, by any justification. It counts completions twice. It rewards the safe dump offs while the more aggressive QB pushing the ball downfield, actually trying to win a game, get penalized. 

I dont know where you're getting the stats. Any thing I looked up rated him 2nd worse in aggression analytics. 12.7% of his attempts were considered aggressive, meaning tight windows. Just because he's throwing long more often doesn't mean he's being aggressive. He's just finding guys deep, most likely open enough for him to be comfortable to throw it. Most likely due to Kelce, Hunt and Hill or good scheming I'd say. Being smart with the ball is fine and CAN help you win. But being too safe gets you 3 and outs. "I'd rather dump it off than try and make a throw to extend a drive." Explains Bradford's career. But it comes down to skill and talent. Do you possess the arm and brain to get this ball in a tight window. Any QB in the NFL can throw to wide open guys. It takes talent, Rodgers comes to mind, to find receivers when they are covered where only their receiver can make a play. And not everyone has it. Thus, the franchise QB debate. There's only a handful like that. Smith won't/can't make those throws so he doesn't. And it holds him back. He'd rather play safe than press. It's not dumb, it just doesn't win. You have to trust your talents enough to force the issue sometimes. If you let the defense predict to you who's open then you've already lost the battle. 

Smith is 33 years old. He is what he is. He's 88-62. It's decent. He's an above average NFL QB. There's nothing wrong with it. But he can only take you so far. 

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HTTRDynasty

HTTRDynasty

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2 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

I never said your QB can be average and win. I said he should at least be good, if he himself isnt elite, paired with an elite unit on your team. And I wouldn't categorize the Reskins' line as elite at all. They were gashed in the run game. If all you do is get upfield and blow assignments of course you'll have pressures on the QB but if the opposing team is moving the ball at will, what good are the pressures? 

24.2 pts a game, ranked 28th. 

134.1 rush yards per game, ranked last. 

213.8 pass yards per game, ranked 9th. 

347.9 total yards per game, ranked 22nd. 

You can say they were a good pass defense but they rank 15th in yards per pass attempt. Which leads one to believe that teams just ran against them because, you know, path of least resistance. And I use resistance very loosely. They were terrible against the run. Only three teams were worse per attempt. So, maybe they "hurried" the QB and were effective there but it doesn't tell the whole story. They barricaded the front door while leaving the side door wide open. 

Lewis and Reed being done is arguable. Kaep scored 2 TDs. Not a great showing but they still had players. But even if I concede that game it's only one in 30 years. It doesn't disprove anything. 

Passer rating is still a flawed stat, by any justification. It counts completions twice. It rewards the safe dump offs while the more aggressive QB pushing the ball downfield, actually trying to win a game, get penalized. 

I dont know where you're getting the stats. Any thing I looked up rated him 2nd worse in aggression analytics. 12.7% of his attempts were considered aggressive, meaning tight windows. Just because he's throwing long more often doesn't mean he's being aggressive. He's just finding guys deep, most likely open enough for him to be comfortable to throw it. Most likely due to Kelce, Hunt and Hill or good scheming I'd say. Being smart with the ball is fine and CAN help you win. But being too safe gets you 3 and outs. "I'd rather dump it off than try and make a throw to extend a drive." Explains Bradford's career. But it comes down to skill and talent. Do you possess the arm and brain to get this ball in a tight window. Any QB in the NFL can throw to wide open guys. It takes talent, Rodgers comes to mind, to find receivers when they are covered where only their receiver can make a play. And not everyone has it. Thus, the franchise QB debate. There's only a handful like that. Smith won't/can't make those throws so he doesn't. And it holds him back. He'd rather play safe than press. It's not dumb, it just doesn't win. You have to trust your talents enough to force the issue sometimes. If you let the defense predict to you who's open then you've already lost the battle. 

Smith is 33 years old. He is what he is. He's 88-62. It's decent. He's an above average NFL QB. There's nothing wrong with it. But he can only take you so far. 

I'll try to keep this short, for @EaglesPeteC's benefit.  Though I think I already went past his attention span word limit.

 

I'm not sure why you're posting all those defensive rushing stats, when I readily admitted earlier in the thread that we were the worst team in the league against the run.  Even with our terrible run D, we were still ranked 11th in DVOA.  Luckily, the return of Jonathan Allen and the 1st round pick of his old teammate, Da'Ron Payne will go a hell of a long way towards fixing the run defense:

Washington finished the season as the worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 134.1 yards per game throughout the season. They allowed an average of 88 yards rushing in the five games Allen started and 155 yards per game in the 11 games without him in the lineup. Washington held an opponent to under 100 yards rushing just once in the final 11 games of the season.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/19/ryan-kerrigan-loss-of-jonathan-allen-was-huge-for-washington-defense-last-year/

Those rushing attacks we went up against in the first five games?

1. Eagles - Finished 3rd in rushing YPG

2. Rams - Finished 8th in rushing YPG

3. Raiders - Finished 25th in rushing YPG (were averaging 144.5 YPG before they ran into us Week 3)

4. Chiefs - Finished 9th in rushing YPG

5. 49ers - Finished 21st in rushing YPG

So yeah, I would say just getting Jonathan Alllen back is huge for us in terms of stopping the run, let alone against the pass.  And adding Payne to that mix will only help, especially as he will be replacing Ziggy F'ing Hood.

 

And trying to dismiss our pass rush because of our terrible run defense just doesn't work.  Redskins ranked 2nd in the league in total pressures, so it's not just about leading the league in pressure rate.  Even if we were ran on more than other teams, we were still one of the top 2 teams at getting after the QB on an aggregate level.  That too, should only get better with the additions of Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis up front replacing McClain, Hood, and McGee.

Redskins' defense ranked 10th in the league in Total Yards Per Drive and 20th in the league in Points Per Drive.  A big reason for that discrepancy is that we ranked 28th in the league at starting LOS per drive, which means our Special Teams and Offense gave our Defense terrible starting field position relative to the rest of the league.  Less boneheaded INTs and Fumbles from the QB position in our own territory should go a long way towards solving that starting LOS issue.

 

In regards to the "aggression" stat, here you go: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2016/all#aggressiveness

In 2016, Smith was more aggressive than Cousins and Roethlisberger, and ranked one step below Rodgers and only 3 and 4 behind Brees and Brady, respectively.

In 2017, Smith was only slightly less aggressive than Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff.  And he had more average intended air yards than both Brees and Rodgers.

The good QB's in this league take what the defense gives them and keep moving the sticks down the field.  They don't constantly force throws to covered receivers, a la Cam Newton.  They have the mental processing speed to reconcile their pre-snap reads with their post-snap reads, and anticipate which receiver will be open based on the coverage looks rather than throwing a bunch of 50/50 balls and hoping their guy comes down with it.

In regards to 3 and outs, the Chiefs ranked 11th best in 2016 (I can't find the 2017 ranking, but I'd bet it was even better).

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Kiltman

Kiltman

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56 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:
4 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I'll try to type short sentences in all caps for you next time.  They always say you should know your audience...

If you can prove your point with just pictures and snarky gifs, that would be ideal. 

NFC EAST Predictions (GIF edition)

 

Eaglesgiphy.gif

Giantsgiphy.gif

Skins200.gif

Dem BoysEwoks%2006.gif

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Jroc04

Jroc04

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40 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I'll try to keep this short, for @EaglesPeteC's benefit.  Though I think I already went past his attention span word limit.

 

I'm not sure why you're posting all those defensive rushing stats, when I readily admitted earlier in the thread that we were the worst team in the league against the run.  Even with our terrible run D, we were still ranked 11th in DVOA.  Luckily, the return of Jonathan Allen and the 1st round pick of his old teammate, Da'Ron Payne will go a hell of a long way towards fixing the run defense:

Washington finished the season as the worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 134.1 yards per game throughout the season. They allowed an average of 88 yards rushing in the five games Allen started and 155 yards per game in the 11 games without him in the lineup. Washington held an opponent to under 100 yards rushing just once in the final 11 games of the season.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/19/ryan-kerrigan-loss-of-jonathan-allen-was-huge-for-washington-defense-last-year/

Those rushing attacks we went up against in the first five games?

1. Eagles - Finished 3rd in rushing YPG

2. Rams - Finished 8th in rushing YPG

3. Raiders - Finished 25th in rushing YPG (were averaging 144.5 YPG before they ran into us Week 3)

4. Chiefs - Finished 9th in rushing YPG

5. 49ers - Finished 21st in rushing YPG

So yeah, I would say just getting Jonathan Alllen back is huge for us in terms of stopping the run, let alone against the pass.  And adding Payne to that mix will only help, especially as he will be replacing Ziggy F'ing Hood.

 

And trying to dismiss our pass rush because of our terrible run defense just doesn't work.  Redskins ranked 2nd in the league in total pressures, so it's not just about leading the league in pressure rate.  Even if we were ran on more than other teams, we were still one of the top 2 teams at getting after the QB on an aggregate level.  That too, should only get better with the additions of Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis up front replacing McClain, Hood, and McGee.

Redskins' defense ranked 10th in the league in Total Yards Per Drive and 20th in the league in Points Per Drive.  A big reason for that discrepancy is that we ranked 28th in the league at starting LOS per drive, which means our Special Teams and Offense gave our Defense terrible starting field position relative to the rest of the league.  Less boneheaded INTs and Fumbles from the QB position in our own territory should go a long way towards solving that starting LOS issue.

 

In regards to the "aggression" stat, here you go: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2016/all#aggressiveness

In 2016, Smith was more aggressive than Cousins and Roethlisberger, and ranked one step below Rodgers and only 3 and 4 behind Brees and Brady, respectively.

In 2017, Smith was only slightly less aggressive than Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff.  And he had more average intended air yards than both Brees and Rodgers.

The good QB's in this league take what the defense gives them and keep moving the sticks down the field.  They don't constantly force throws to covered receivers, a la Cam Newton.  They have the mental processing speed to reconcile their pre-snap reads with their post-snap reads, and anticipate which receiver will be open based on the coverage looks rather than throwing a bunch of 50/50 balls and hoping their guy comes down with it.

In regards to 3 and outs, the Chiefs ranked 11th best in 2016 (I can't find the 2017 ranking, but I'd bet it was even better).

I actually like the Redskins D. Big fan of Kerrigan, he always kills us and loved the Allen pick last year. I know they'll be better. What I was getting at, is that football isn't played on paper. Your passing D is going to look better because your rushing D was atrocious. Teams clearly attacked your weakness. The hurries are there, yes. But at what cost? It's like a team going for interceptions and leading the league but also giving up the most passing TDs. The Redskins aren't elite in anything, IMO. If the hurries correlated into an excessive amount of  turnovers or a top 10 defense then obviously there's something to it. But since the defensive was ultimately a middling unit, then one could conclude that the hurries were a flimsy stat. But let's first prove that Allen was that good rather than assuming he is. The underlining point to all this is that the Redskins, imo, aren't elite in any facet of the game. And they must be to make up for Smith, who's just going to be adequate enough and nothing more. 

Im dismissing the hurry rate because the defense failed ultimately. Looking at those stats read to me that they were hellbent about applying pressure at the expense of other parts of the defense. It seemed as though teams were ok letting up some hurries to you because they were moving the ball at will. And the Redskins failed to adjust. I mean, how would you explain how average they were overall when they have those types of hurries? 

And I honestly don't know where you're looking at those stats. I literally hit the AGG% (the measurement of how aggressive a QB is)  tab and Smith is second to last in 2017? What am I missing? 

No. Good QBs know how to pick apart a defense. Average QBs take what the defense gives them. You can't let the defense predict to you. If you are taking what they are giving then you're just a game manager and are predictable enough for the defense to handle. A great QB knows when and where to take advantage. There's no forcing a ball when a great QB knows he can make the throw. It's what separates good from great. But you have to have a combination of skill, intellect and confidence. To me, Smith is missing some in each area to be great. How else could you explain a 33 year old QB on his third team with little playoff success to mention? He's just a guy, man. You could do a helluva lot worse but he's not enough to make noise against elite talent. 

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Danger

Danger

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1 hour ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I'll try to keep this short, for @EaglesPeteC's benefit.  Though I think I already went past his attention span word limit.

Honestly, insults as uninspired and dull as this only serve to make you look more the fool than the person you're debating with.

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HTTRDynasty

HTTRDynasty

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1 hour ago, Jroc04 said:

I actually like the Redskins D. Big fan of Kerrigan, he always kills us and loved the Allen pick last year. I know they'll be better. What I was getting at, is that football isn't played on paper. Your passing D is going to look better because your rushing D was atrocious. Teams clearly attacked your weakness. The hurries are there, yes. But at what cost? It's like a team going for interceptions and leading the league but also giving up the most passing TDs. The Redskins aren't elite in anything, IMO. If the hurries correlated into an excessive amount of  turnovers or a top 10 defense then obviously there's something to it. But since the defensive was ultimately a middling unit, then one could conclude that the hurries were a flimsy stat. But let's first prove that Allen was that good rather than assuming he is. The underlining point to all this is that the Redskins, imo, aren't elite in any facet of the game. And they must be to make up for Smith, who's just going to be adequate enough and nothing more. 

 

Okay, let's just pretend that this is true for a minute.  That would mean that the passing D should look better for other teams with a terrible run defense too.  Here are the bottom 5 teams in run defense DVOA:

KC - 32nd run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Bottom 5 in pressure percentage.  23rd in pass defense DVOA.

Buffalo - 31st run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Bottom 2 in pressure percentage.  12th in pass defense DVOA.

Patriots - 30th run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Unknown pressure percentage (Not top 10, not bottom 5).  21st in pass defense DVOA.

Redskins - 29th run defense DVOA.  Top 2 in total pressures.  1st in pressure percentage.  6th in pass defense DVOA.

Detroit - 28th run defense DVOA.  Not top 10 in total pressures.  Bottom 4 in pressure percentage.  16th in pass defense DVOA.

 

Yeah, that theory doesn't hold up.  Redskins have an elite front 7 when it comes to pressuring the QB and have a top 10 overall pass defense.  And it's not because they were terrible against the run.

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Jroc04 said:

And I honestly don't know where you're looking at those stats. I literally hit the AGG% (the measurement of how aggressive a QB is)  tab and Smith is second to last in 2017? What am I missing? 

You're missing all the other names I posted, and my point that less aggressive does not equal bad (or average).  I'll put it in terms that you are focused on:

In 2016:

Kirk Cousins was 2nd to last

Big Ben was 4th to last

Alex Smith was 7th to last

Aaron Rodgers was 8th to last

Drew Brees was 10th to last

Tom Brady was 11th to last

 

In 2017:

Alex Smith was 2nd to last

Jared Goff was 5th to last

Aaron Rodgers was 7th to last

 

1 hour ago, Jroc04 said:

No. Good QBs know how to pick apart a defense. Average QBs take what the defense gives them. You can't let the defense predict to you. If you are taking what they are giving then you're just a game manager and are predictable enough for the defense to handle. A great QB knows when and where to take advantage. There's no forcing a ball when a great QB knows he can make the throw. It's what separates good from great. But you have to have a combination of skill, intellect and confidence. To me, Smith is missing some in each area to be great. How else could you explain a 33 year old QB on his third team with little playoff success to mention? He's just a guy, man. 

When I say "take what the defense gives them" I mean being able to pick apart a defense without needing to throw a lot of 50/50 type balls that can swing either way from one play, game or season to the next.

I do think Smith will need to throw more 50/50 balls if he wants to take full advantage of Josh Doctson's skill-set, but I believe he will do it.  But what WR's has he had around him that were great 50/50 ball guys?  If you gave Alex Smith an Alshon Jeffery last year, I'm sure that "aggressive" ranking would have been higher.  We will see this year, since he has Doctson.  Cousins went from 2nd to last in "aggressive" throws in 2016 to 15th to last when Josh Doctson played a full season.  I expect a similar jump from Smith.

And as I said before, the 49ers made a mistake letting Smith go.  We will soon see if the Chiefs made one as well.  NFL teams making the wrong decision isn't exactly out of the norm, and shouldn't be used as some irrefutable proof that a player isn't a franchise QB.

And Alex Smith has actually been pretty damn unlucky in the playoffs.  I believe 3 trips ago, half his team got injured and went to the bench for the rest of the game (including Jamaal Charles in the 1st quarter) against the Colts, and Andrew Luck had that great comeback with half the Chiefs starters on the bench.  2 trips ago, the refs called a BS holding call on Eric Fisher during their 2 point conversion attempt (which they converted before the flag came out) at the end of the game against the Steelers, and last year Travis Kelce was knocked out of the game in the 1st quarter and his replacement had some key drops throughout the game, and that's also the game where Mariota scored a TD on 3rd down by somehow passing the ball to himself.  Call it what you want, but that's some pretty terrible luck right there.  His lack of playoff success definitely can't be put solely on his shoulders.

1 hour ago, Jroc04 said:

You could do a helluva lot worse but he's not enough to make noise against elite talent. 

That describes pretty much every QB other than Brady, Rodgers, and Brees.  Even those guys have trouble when going up against elite defenses, and usually have to be bailed out by their own defense in order to win anything significant.

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HTTRDynasty

HTTRDynasty

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22 minutes ago, Danger said:

Honestly, insults as uninspired and dull as this only serve to make you look more the fool than the person you're debating with.

Huh?  I wasn't even debating with EaglesPete.  I was just messing with him.

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Phire

Phire

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Lane on Chip:

Quote

"It was definitely exciting whenever he first came in, and we did some good things," Johnson said of Kelly during a recent appearance on Steve Austin's podcast, via Philly.com. "Then we start getting rid of our best players. You've got DeSean Jackson, who can outrun everyone on the field. You've got Shady McCoy, who's going to be one of the best running backs of all time. You just get rid of those guys just like that, and you set a tone. Players didn't really like that."

 

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EaglesPeteC

EaglesPeteC

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5 hours ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

I'll try to keep this short, for @EaglesPeteC's benefit.  Though I think I already went past his attention span word limit.

 

I'm not sure why you're posting all those defensive rushing stats, when I readily admitted earlier in the thread that we were the worst team in the league against the run.  Even with our terrible run D, we were still ranked 11th in DVOA.  Luckily, the return of Jonathan Allen and the 1st round pick of his old teammate, Da'Ron Payne will go a hell of a long way towards fixing the run defense:

Washington finished the season as the worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 134.1 yards per game throughout the season. They allowed an average of 88 yards rushing in the five games Allen started and 155 yards per game in the 11 games without him in the lineup. Washington held an opponent to under 100 yards rushing just once in the final 11 games of the season.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/19/ryan-kerrigan-loss-of-jonathan-allen-was-huge-for-washington-defense-last-year/

Those rushing attacks we went up against in the first five games?

1. Eagles - Finished 3rd in rushing YPG

2. Rams - Finished 8th in rushing YPG

3. Raiders - Finished 25th in rushing YPG (were averaging 144.5 YPG before they ran into us Week 3)

4. Chiefs - Finished 9th in rushing YPG

5. 49ers - Finished 21st in rushing YPG

So yeah, I would say just getting Jonathan Alllen back is huge for us in terms of stopping the run, let alone against the pass.  And adding Payne to that mix will only help, especially as he will be replacing Ziggy F'ing Hood.

 

And trying to dismiss our pass rush because of our terrible run defense just doesn't work.  Redskins ranked 2nd in the league in total pressures, so it's not just about leading the league in pressure rate.  Even if we were ran on more than other teams, we were still one of the top 2 teams at getting after the QB on an aggregate level.  That too, should only get better with the additions of Allen, Payne, and Ioannidis up front replacing McClain, Hood, and McGee.

Redskins' defense ranked 10th in the league in Total Yards Per Drive and 20th in the league in Points Per Drive.  A big reason for that discrepancy is that we ranked 28th in the league at starting LOS per drive, which means our Special Teams and Offense gave our Defense terrible starting field position relative to the rest of the league.  Less boneheaded INTs and Fumbles from the QB position in our own territory should go a long way towards solving that starting LOS issue.

 

In regards to the "aggression" stat, here you go: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2016/all#aggressiveness

In 2016, Smith was more aggressive than Cousins and Roethlisberger, and ranked one step below Rodgers and only 3 and 4 behind Brees and Brady, respectively.

In 2017, Smith was only slightly less aggressive than Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff.  And he had more average intended air yards than both Brees and Rodgers.

The good QB's in this league take what the defense gives them and keep moving the sticks down the field.  They don't constantly force throws to covered receivers, a la Cam Newton.  They have the mental processing speed to reconcile their pre-snap reads with their post-snap reads, and anticipate which receiver will be open based on the coverage looks rather than throwing a bunch of 50/50 balls and hoping their guy comes down with it.

In regards to 3 and outs, the Chiefs ranked 11th best in 2016 (I can't find the 2017 ranking, but I'd bet it was even better).

This is you keeping it short? You need an editor......

You are working awfully hard when you know in your heart Washington will be 7-9 and battling for 3rd in the division again. 

It's just science at this point

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