Skins212689 Posted May 3, 2019 Author Share Posted May 3, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, Woz said: The examples given as to why Haskins should sit are: Jimmy Garroppolo (and I suppose, by extension, Jacoby Brissett?) sat behind Tom Brady (a future first ballot Hall of Famer) Aaron Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre (a first ballot Hall of Famer) and, Patrick Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith Now obviously, there is no one on Washington's roster that is going to be a 20th ballot/Senior Committee Hall of Famer, much less one on the first ballot. So, we should ignore those two cases and focus on the last one. Why did Mahomes sit? Well, first off, the Chiefs had a former first round pick that they had trade for in Alex Smith. While the 2013-2016 vintage Smith wouldn't blow your top off, he was a decent QB so the Chiefs probably figured they could ride with the vet for a bit before turning the reins over to their rookie. Kind of like how Washington probably views Keenum (albeit with a lot less lead on the hook since they have little to no investment in Keenum). However, when the 2017 season began, the Alex Smith-led Chiefs shot out to a 5-0 lead (including a 42-27 drubbing of the Patriots in New England). They looked hot and there was no reason to go to the rookie. Even though they would stumble a bit over the next four games, they entered their bye at 6-3 (losses to Pittsburgh, @Oakland, and @Dallas). So, the last point at which a team might consider playing the rookie QB (out of the bye week), came and went because the Chiefs were near the top of the league. Which is interesting, because they would drop their next three games to the woeful Giants, Bills, and Jets in rapid succession coming out of the bye. However, in their remaining four games, they had three divisional rivals (as well as the sad sack Dolphins). They went 3-0, with their final game in Denver. At this point they turned the ball over to Mahomes because they had already clinched the division (they had defeated the Chargers twice), so the game didn't matter. Mahomes then won his first start ... and Alex Smith would see his career with the Chiefs end a week later when their defense completely collapsed in the wildcard round to Tennessee. So, again, if Case Keenum beats Haskins in training camp and then comes out of the gate like a man on fire, then the rookie is likely to sit for a long time. That's not a likely scenario, though. There's also the following questions: Can Keenum teach Haskins (or any other rookie QB) how to play the game in the NFL? (*) Will Keenum teach Haskins (or any other rookie QB) how to play the game in the NFL? and, Do we want to see Keenum teaching Haskins what he knows? On that last question, I get where that question is coming from, but I feel like it's cheap. If nothing else, learning not to do something (or learning from another's mistakes) is also useful wisdom to be gleaned. Questions 1 and 2, however, are bigger issues. Finally, here's all of the first round QBs since 2005 (and Aaron Rodgers' lengthy wait) and how long they sat before getting their first start Vince Young (2006 1.03) - started game 4, rookie season Matt Leinart (2006 1.10) - started game 5, rookie season Jay Cutler (2006 1.11) - started game 12, rookie season JaMarcus Russell (2007 1.01) - started game 16, rookie season Brady Quinn (2007 1.22) - started game 9, sophomore season Matt Ryan (2008 1.03) - started game 1, rookie season Joe Flacco (2008 1.18) - started game 1, rookie season Matthew Stafford (2009 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season Mark Sanchez (2009 1.05) - started game 1, rookie season Josh Freeman (2009 1.17) - started game 8, rookie season Sam Bradford (2010 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season Tim Tebow (2010 1.25) - started game 14, rookie season[NEW CBA TAKES EFFECT] Cam Newton (2011 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season Jake Locker (2011 1.08) - started game 1, sophomore season Blaine Gabbert (2011 1.10) - started game 3, rookie season Christian Ponder (2011 1.12) - started game 7, rookie season Andrew Luck (2012 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season Robert Griffin III (2012 1.02) - started game 1, rookie season Ryan Tannehill (2012 1.08) - started game 1, rookie season Brandon Weeden (2012 1.22) - started game 1, rookie season E.J. Manuel (2013 1.16) - started game 1, rookie season Blake Bortles (2014 1.03) - started game 4, rookie season Johnny Manziel (2014 1.22) - started game 14, rookie season Teddy Bridgewater (2014 1.32) - started game 4, rookie season Jameis Winston (2015 1.01) - started game 1, rookie season Marcus Mariota (2015 1.02) - started game 1, rookie season Jared Goff (2016 1.01) - started game 10, rookie season Carson Wentz (2016 1.02) - started game 1, rookie season Paxton Lynch (2016 1.26) - started game 5, rookie season Mitch Trubisky (2017 1.02) - started game 5, rookie season Patrick Mahomes (2017 1.10) - started game 16, rookie season Deshaun Watson (2017 1.12) - started game 2, rookie season Baker Mayfield (2018 1.01) - started game 4, rookie season Sam Darnold (2018 1.03) - started game 1, rookie season Josh Allen (2018 1.07) - started game 2, rookie season Josh Rosen (2018 1.10) - started game 4, rookie season Lamar Jackson (2018 1.32) - started game 10, rookie season If you can see any correlation with how long the player waited to start versus their career arc (or projected arc with some of the younger guys), you're a smarter man than I. So, should Haskins sit? I don't know. If the coaching staff can fix his footwork issues that @e16bball has mentioned in the offseason, then perhaps no. If Keenum beats him out in training camp, then yes. But just to have him sit because he's a rookie? That just doesn't happen anymore. There's got to be a reason for it. (*) As the husband to a former teacher, if you tell me, "those who can, do; those who can't, teach," I will smack you. Being a teacher is a hell of a lot of work (certainly more than me being a software engineer), and requires a ton of dedication and resilience to put up with **** from teachers, administrators, and those who think it's a simple job. </rant> How is Keenum not a decent QB? He did just take the Vikings to the playoffs 2 years ago! Even if he wasn't to take the Skins to the playoffs, with all the talk about Haskins lack of experience what's wrong with starting a Veteran to allow Haskins to continue learn the positions? Is Haskins the missing peice to the Skins getting to the Super Bowl? I think they need more than just him to get to the Super Bowl. I don't care about anything accept winning a Super Bowl and allowing Haskins to get more experience to learn the position. With all the QBs you named how many were able to take their teams to the playoffs or Super Bowl their rookie season? Also how many had more experience at the position than Haskins in college? It's been proven drafting Smith before Rodgers was a huge mistake, so how can you say he got the start in KC because he was the #1 pick? IMO he got the start because Andy Reid was smart enough to allow Mahomes to sit and learn. Same can be done here with Haskins learning from Smith, Keenum, and Doug Williams. Both Smith and Mahomes were 1st round picks except a Team actually traded up for Mahomes and decided to sit him his rookie season. You can agree to disagree if you like but just don't jump on him if his lack of experience was to actaully show if he was to start! Haskins lack of experience and us having a Vet in Keenum that can produce are two great reasons he should sit his rookie season. Please answer the most the important questions how many of those rookies took their teams to the Super Bowl their rookie year or even to the 2nd round of the playoffs? Super Bowl is the goal nothing else really matters. Edited May 3, 2019 by Skins212689 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 The Keenum 2017 anomaly is similar to the Alex Smith 2017 "best deep ball in the league" anomaly in that ... it was an anomaly. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted May 3, 2019 Share Posted May 3, 2019 2 hours ago, MikeT14 said: The Keenum 2017 anomaly is similar to the Alex Smith 2017 "best deep ball in the league" anomaly in that ... it was an anomaly. It's amazing that people can't see the the difference between this: 4,4,4,4,10,4,4,4,4 and this... 6,6,7,7,8,8,6,7,8,6 And then they say: "Oh hey, he's a guy who is capable of being a 10! He's a great QB!" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A TRAIN 89 Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 Unless Haskins completely blows Keenum out of the water in training camp, he should sit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins212689 Posted May 4, 2019 Author Share Posted May 4, 2019 14 hours ago, Thaiphoon said: It's amazing that people can't see the the difference between this: 4,4,4,4,10,4,4,4,4 and this... 6,6,7,7,8,8,6,7,8,6 And then they say: "Oh hey, he's a guy who is capable of being a 10! He's a great QB!" I never said top 10 or great. I said capable of helping the team be offensively effective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted May 4, 2019 Share Posted May 4, 2019 14 hours ago, Skins212689 said: I never said top 10 or great. I said capable of helping the team be offensively effective. Not disputing that. I'm talking about some Redskins fans pointing to Case and Alex' one year anomaly and deciding thats the QB they are. For the record, I agree that a veteran should start the season. Haskins should only come in after awhile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: How is Keenum not a decent QB? He did just take the Vikings to the playoffs 2 years ago! As @MikeT14 said, that's the aberration for Keenum, not the norm. Keep in mind those two playoff games that Keenum led the Vikings to were the only ones he has ever played. Yes, he's played on some really bad teams, but at the same time, he's been the nominal leader of those bad teams. There's a reason that Washington is Keenum's fifth team in his career (and fourth in four years). On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: Even if he wasn't to take the Skins to the playoffs, with all the talk about Haskins lack of experience what's wrong with starting a Veteran to allow Haskins to continue learn the positions? A couple of reasons: Why trot out a guy who isn't going to get you to the playoffs? Keep in mind that Jay Gruden has next to zero incentive to tank this year (could mean he's fired), especially if there is a rookie QB waiting in the wings. There's an open question as to how much a player can learn just from film study and watching from the sideline. How much is holding a clipboard going to contribute to Haskins' learning? If it's a question of footwork, how does standing still on the sideline help him? On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: Is Haskins the missing peice to the Skins getting to the Super Bowl? This year? Absolutely not. Is Keenum? No. So ... the point is ... ? On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: I think they need more than just him to get to the Super Bowl. I don't care about anything accept winning a Super Bowl and allowing Haskins to get more experience to learn the position. I concur with this ... until the part about Haskins. Again, how much experience can be gained from not playing? Keep in mind, the single most valuable thing a NFL franchise has is a rookie contract as it represents talent at a fraction of the market value. And the single most valuable rookie contract is one associated with a rookie quarterback. If Haskins sits a year, that's a year where everyone involved does not know whether he can play the game at the professional level. That's one year less of having him at a seriously cost controlled contract. Last year, Washington selected Da'Ron Payne 13th overall. His rookie season's salary cap value was $2.62M. Per Spotrac, that represented the 91st (tied with LAC's Damion Square) most expensive defensive lineman, cap-wise. The number one most expensive DL in 2018 was Calais Campbell at $17.5M. In other words, from a cap perspective, Payne was about 15 cents on the dollar when compared to Campbell. Let's assume that Haskins will make the same amount as Payne did last year (he's two picks later, but plays a premium position and there's a bit of inflation built in). The top cap hit for a QB in 2019 is Matthew Stafford at $29.5M. That would mean Haskins would only be about 9 cents on the dollar in comparison to Stafford. That's a lost opportunity cost. Oh, by the way, Keenum's cap hit will be $3.5M this season, and McCoy's is $3.375M. So, he represents savings over those two as well (Smith's millstone of a contract is eating $20.4M ... *sigh*). Now maybe he's not good enough to play in the NFL. That would royally suck, but having four years to evaluate him at extremely dirt cheap prices (relative to what the market dictates) is useful. Also, those four years also potentially lead into a cheap(er) fifth year (it would be $22.8M in 2019 ... obviously there will be inflation by the time 2022/2023 rolls around). Knowing if they should execute or not is also important (see Josh Doctson). On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: With all the QBs you named how many were able to take their teams to the playoffs or Super Bowl their rookie season? Also how many had more experience at the position than Haskins in college? For the Super Bowl? I want to say Roethlisberger? For the playoffs? I'd have to check, but I suspect it would only be a handful more. But no one has been arguing that they would make the playoffs or Super Bowl this year. It's getting for getting the experience down the line. On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: It's been proven drafting Smith before Rodgers was a huge mistake 20/20 hindsight. At the time, it was a big debate as to whether a Jeff Tedford QB could actually hack in the NFL. On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: so how can you say he got the start in KC because he was the #1 pick? You misunderstood me. Kansas City invested a second round pick in trading for Smith. That was their investment (in no small part because he was a former first overall QB) and that is why he started. They then realized he was a good but not great QB and drafted Mahomes to replace him. However, Smith set the world on fire in 2017 and Reid didn't have to go to Mahomes until they had the divisional title sewed up. If Keenum can do that, then Haskins can sit for a season. At the same time, if we're doing 20/20 hindsight, do you think the Chiefs wish they could have had Patrick Mahomes starting in 2017? Would they have lost three games to the Jets, Giants, and Bills if Mahomes was under center? That might have meant getting a two or one seed and not having the Tennessee loss. On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: IMO he got the start because Andy Reid was smart enough to allow Mahomes to sit and learn. We'll disagree here. On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: Same can be done here with Haskins learning from Smith, Keenum, and Doug Williams. I am curious how much you think Williams can teach Haskins since it has been 30 years since Doug laced up his cleats. I do hope that Smith can impart some wisdom to Haskins as his career is over. I would be a bit surprised if Keenum did the same since it's not in his best interest to do so (if he helps Haskins get better, it's that much quicker before he could be sent to the bench again). On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: Both Smith and Mahomes were 1st round picks except a Team actually traded up for Mahomes and decided to sit him his rookie season. Because the team that drafted him had an existing QB on the roster with significant experience both in the NFL and with the team. A comparable situation is in New York: how long does Jones sit? Eli's been the man up in the Meadowlands for a decade and a half, but this is his curtain call. No one would be all that surprised if Eli was the week 1 starter because he's been the starter there for umpteen years. It was the same with Smith; he'd been the starter for the Chiefs for 4 years previously. Mahomes didn't beat him out in training camp, so Smith was under center when the Chiefs offense blew New England out of the water in week one of 2017 on national television. They continued to win with Smith so there was no impetus to change QBs mid-season. If that happens in Washington, great! It means that likely they're playoff bound with Keenum. If that's the case, Haskins, enjoy the view from the sideline and do what you can to support the team. On 5/2/2019 at 9:25 PM, Skins212689 said: You can agree to disagree if you like but just don't jump on him if his lack of experience was to actaully show if he was to start! Haskins lack of experience and us having a Vet in Keenum that can produce are two great reasons he should sit his rookie season. Please answer the most the important questions how many of those rookies took their teams to the Super Bowl their rookie year or even to the 2nd round of the playoffs? Super Bowl is the goal nothing else really matters. Okay, I'll disagree with you. However, I do have a question for you: why the short timeframe? Why must Haskins, if he were to start, win the Super Bowl in his first or second year? If the team isn't ready in that timeframe (for instance, the wide receiver corps is a BIG question mark), is that all on Haskins? What if the experience he gets playing on the field in years one and two help him for years 3 and 4? Or put another way: How does Washington sitting Haskins on the bench because he has so little experience starting help him get experience starting? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted May 6, 2019 Share Posted May 6, 2019 On 5/4/2019 at 12:41 AM, A TRAIN 89 said: Unless Haskins completely blows Keenum out of the water in training camp, he should sit. Fair enough. Question though: unless Keenum blows the opponents in the first quarter of the regular season out of the water, how long can Washington keep Haskins on the sideline before their hand is effectively forced by the fanbase? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A TRAIN 89 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Woz said: Fair enough. Question though: unless Keenum blows the opponents in the first quarter of the regular season out of the water, how long can Washington keep Haskins on the sideline before their hand is effectively forced by the fanbase? The schedule is brutal early on. Unless Keenum is abhorrent and change is necessary, I would hold off until after the NE game. You can always wait to make the move, but you can’t go back. We’ve seen how that goes and it never works. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins212689 Posted May 7, 2019 Author Share Posted May 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Woz said: Fair enough. Question though: unless Keenum blows the opponents in the first quarter of the regular season out of the water, how long can Washington keep Haskins on the sideline before their hand is effectively forced by the fanbase? The fanbase isn't gonna force me to start Haskins with me comfortable starting the Vet Keenum. I'm taking Reids approach and sitting Haskins with Keenum starting. He sits the whole year unless they start out horrible and Haskins is lighting it up in practice. They wouldn't start out 0-8, 2-6 and I put Haskins nor 4-4, 5-3, or 6-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ripsean21 Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 8 hours ago, A TRAIN 89 said: The schedule is brutal early on. Unless Keenum is abhorrent and change is necessary, I would hold off until after the NE game. You can always wait to make the move, but you can’t go back. We’ve seen how that goes and it never works. But what if he starts early goes through a few things and by the NE game he starts to really play and he gives Brady a game? You never know what you have on the bench until they come off of it!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 17 hours ago, A TRAIN 89 said: The schedule is brutal early on. Unless Keenum is abhorrent and change is necessary, I would hold off until after the NE game. You can always wait to make the move, but you can’t go back. We’ve seen how that goes and it never works. To be honest, that was my timeline as well, especially since the middle of the schedule is much more reasonable: at Miami vs San Francisco at Minnesota (TNF (*)) at Buffalo <bye> vs NY Jets vs Detroit That gives him six games to get his feet wet before a grueling close: at Carolina at Green Bay vs Philadelphia vs NY Giants at Dallas (*) The Thursday game against Minnesota is dicey because of the national aspect of the game and the obvious side-by-side comp with Cousins. Still, that pressure/focus is also part of the experience of being a NFL starting QB so it's important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 17 hours ago, Skins212689 said: The fanbase isn't gonna force me to start Haskins with me comfortable starting the Vet Keenum. I'm taking Reids approach and sitting Haskins with Keenum starting. He sits the whole year unless they start out horrible and Haskins is lighting it up in practice. They wouldn't start out 0-8, 2-6 and I put Haskins nor 4-4, 5-3, or 6-2. Again, Reid only sat Mahomes because Smith came hot out of the gate (which to be fair, Smith had done in 2013 (9-0) as well; finished 11-5). Had Smith opened like the Chiefs did in 2014 (2-3 going into the bye; finished 9-7), 2015 (3-5 going into the bye (with a 5 game losing streak in the middle there); finished 11-5), or even 2016 (2-2 going into the bye; finished 12-4), it might have been a dicier proposition. At the same time, Reid had four years where Smith led the team to the playoffs four of the five years (only missed in 2014), even with those slow starts. That probably gave Reid confidence that even after the 1-3 stumble into the bye that Smith should have be their leader. Keenum doesn't have that track record in general, and has zero track record with Washington. They have no ties to him. Unless he comes out of the gate hot against the three NFC East opponents, his starting days in DC may be done by mid-October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted May 7, 2019 Share Posted May 7, 2019 9 hours ago, ripsean21 said: But what if he starts early goes through a few things and by the NE game he starts to really play and he gives Brady a game? You never know what you have on the bench until they come off of it!!! Right now, unless Haskins beats Keenum pretty soundly in preseason, I would expect Keenum to start because of his experience in the NFL. If Haskins does beat Keenum pretty soundly, then the remainder of Keenum's career in the NFL is probably relegated to the clipboard/short-stint starter track. There's nothing necessarily wrong with that (you still get paid millions of dollars, mostly to hold a clipboard), but Keenum would have to accept the ego puncturing that comes along with the "hey, you're just a backup we can call up at any time" role when you expect to be "The Man." Obviously, if Keenum looks leaps and bounds better than Haskins, Haskins sits. If it's close between Keenum and Haskins (and they both look bad), they'll go with Keenum to try and shield Haskins from the opening schedule/"fan-blaster" that failure will inevitably follow. If it's close between Keenum and Haskins (and they both look good) ... that will be very interesting. A Haskins start in this case might be a sign that Jay has lost all control and is effectively dead man walking (because the higher ups said "start the rookie, he's important for marketing purposes"). Alternatively, it may be that Jay starts him because he's desperate to hang on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins212689 Posted May 8, 2019 Author Share Posted May 8, 2019 (edited) 20 hours ago, Woz said: Again, Reid only sat Mahomes because Smith came hot out of the gate (which to be fair, Smith had done in 2013 (9-0) as well; finished 11-5). Had Smith opened like the Chiefs did in 2014 (2-3 going into the bye; finished 9-7), 2015 (3-5 going into the bye (with a 5 game losing streak in the middle there); finished 11-5), or even 2016 (2-2 going into the bye; finished 12-4), it might have been a dicier proposition. At the same time, Reid had four years where Smith led the team to the playoffs four of the five years (only missed in 2014), even with those slow starts. That probably gave Reid confidence that even after the 1-3 stumble into the bye that Smith should have be their leader. Keenum doesn't have that track record in general, and has zero track record with Washington. They have no ties to him. Unless he comes out of the gate hot against the three NFC East opponents, his starting days in DC may be done by mid-October. Ok so why can't Keenum come out hot as well? 6-4, 7-3? Even if they were to start out bad, forcing a inexperienced Rookie might not be the best solution. Even if he says he's ready we've seen sometimes it best to let a guy sit and learn. Edited May 8, 2019 by Skins212689 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.