2020 NFL Draft Thread

[NightTrainLane]

3 hours ago, BayRaider said:

This is the case every year. The average fan picks correct is 5/32 in mocks and the media is 6/32 average. 
 

For most accurate results, Charlie Campbell is back to back to back Mock Draft Champion with 11/32 in 2017, 10/32 in 2018, and 10/32 in 2019. This is the draft he posts on Draft Day. 
 

The NFL Draft is the most unpredictable thing in sports. One of the reasons I love it so much. 

But this will be an outlier was the point but yes we all suck at predicting the draft and yet we do it anyways. It's why Football will always be Americas sport.

[jimkelly02]

6 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Above average arm strength, elite accuracy, quick delivery, good decision making, above average athleticism. 

Im not trying to start an anti-Tua debate but it seems to me Tua is more than the sum of his parts and does lack any/many elite traits.  
His accuracy is top notch.... but very good pass protection and targets that get good separation does really help a QB be accurate.  
I haven’t looked into this aspect of his game so I have to ask: how great is his ball placement on tight window throws.  From what I have seen and I really should be going back to look at this specifically before commenting, Tua’s accuracy in tight windows was pretty good.  Does anyone have any thoughts on exactly how good it is?

[jimkelly02]

1 minute ago, NightTrainLane said:

But this will be an outlier was the point but yes we all suck at predicting the draft and yet we do it anyways. It's why Football will always be Americas sport.

Trades also have a great influence on not guessing correctly in mocks.... once a trade happens it’s effects exponentially grow.  
We usually have a good idea of the 1-3 top positions and top 1-3 players at those positions are but exactly who goes where is a crapshoot.

[BayRaider]

I really think CJ Henderson might tumble a bit. Right now his average draft slot is 16. He has major tackling issues for a CB which is a way bigger issue than fans make it out to be. NFL teams want someone who can tackle among every position. Unlike Delpit, you can’t even argue his tackling because he refuses to tackle, and that goes back to his previous season as well. 
 

Greedy Williams average draft slot in Mocks last year was 21. He fell to 46. Because of tackling. 
 

Do I think CJ falls 25 spots like that? No. But I could see him fall 10-15 spots and go in the 25-35 range. 

[Bitty 2.0]

12 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

Im not trying to start an anti-Tua debate but it seems to me Tua is more than the sum of his parts and does lack any/many elite traits.  
His accuracy is top notch.... but very good pass protection and targets that get good separation does really help a QB be accurate.  
I haven’t looked into this aspect of his game so I have to ask: how great is his ball placement on tight window throws.  From what I have seen and I really should be going back to look at this specifically before commenting, Tua’s accuracy in tight windows was pretty good.  Does anyone have any thoughts on exactly how good it is?

He does have 2 1st round WRa

Edited April 18, 2020 by Bitty 2.0

[jimkelly02]

11 minutes ago, agarcia34 said:

 

Drinking too much water is one way to get flagged.  The specifics on what the fails are for will really matter in these cases.  

[jimkelly02]

Just now, Bitty 2.0 said:

He does have to 1st round ARe 

Huh?

[BayRaider]

7 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

But this will be an outlier was the point but yes we all suck at predicting the draft and yet we do it anyways. It's why Football will always be Americas sport.

Lmao soooo true. 

[Frankie2Gunz]

3 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I really think CJ Henderson might tumble a bit. Right now his average draft slot is 16. He has major tackling issues for a CB which is a way bigger issue than fans make it out to be. NFL teams want someone who can tackle among every position. Unlike Delpit, you can’t even argue his tackling because he refuses to tackle, and that goes back to his previous season as well. 
 

Greedy Williams average draft slot in Mocks last year was 21. He fell to 46. Because of tackling. 
 

Do I think CJ falls 25 spots like that? No. But I could see him fall 10-15 spots and go in the 25-35 range. 

I've been doing some mock drafts and I really like the idea of trading back from 19, getting more picks and landing AJ Terrell in the middle of the 20's.  I like his game and think he would fit well alongside Mullin.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Frankie2Gunz

[BayRaider]

8 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

Im not trying to start an anti-Tua debate but it seems to me Tua is more than the sum of his parts and does lack any/many elite traits.  
His accuracy is top notch.... but very good pass protection and targets that get good separation does really help a QB be accurate.  
I haven’t looked into this aspect of his game so I have to ask: how great is his ball placement on tight window throws.  From what I have seen and I really should be going back to look at this specifically before commenting, Tua’s accuracy in tight windows was pretty good.  Does anyone have any thoughts on exactly how good it is?

According to Kyle Crabbs texturized QB charting from Draft Network, Tua was the #1 QB on 3rd downs under pressure, and also the most accurate tight window thrower in college football. 
 

His OL/Weapon Core may be a concern but imo it’s really overblown by fans. 

[jimkelly02]

2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I really think CJ Henderson might tumble a bit. Right now his average draft slot is 16. He has major tackling issues for a CB which is a way bigger issue than fans make it out to be. NFL teams want someone who can tackle among every position. Unlike Delpit, you can’t even argue his tackling because he refuses to tackle, and that goes back to his previous season as well. 
 

Greedy Williams average draft slot in Mocks last year was 21. He fell to 46. Because of tackling. 
 

Do I think CJ falls 25 spots like that? No. But I could see him fall 10-15 spots and go in the 25-35 range. 

You know how well I’ve made it known my displeasure with Henderson’s tackling.  It’s not a form or physicality or missed tackles issue.  It’s a refusal to stick a shoulder in there or get off a block.  Dudes literally tries to stay blocked to avoid “having to” hit someone.  
 

but if he’s there at 19 and the trade back options aren’t good I’d probably advocate to take him.  His coverage is that good.  I think his draft stock has been artificially pumped up since the end of the season.  But at 19 with CB such a need I’d take my chances on him.  I’d probably regret it mightfully in time but I’d prolly pull the trigger.

[jimkelly02]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

According to Kyle Crabbs texturized QB charting from Draft Network, Tua was the #1 QB on 3rd downs under pressure, and also the most accurate tight window thrower in college football. 
 

His OL/Weapon Core may be a concern but imo it’s really overblown by fans. 

I’ll check it Out thanks.

without looking at it yet,,, it seems like a pff rating in the sense it might not be credible data.  

id want to know how often did he convert when pressured and have a small window to complete the ball.  If he has a low number of pressures that could alter the percentages.  And if he was pressured but had relatively open options then that’s not the same Thing as a pressure where he’s rushed to throw into a small window.  
just saying there’s always a lot of objectivity to these type of “stats”.

[NYRaider]

Just now, Trojan said:

They need like 4 guys. Maybe LT could be the only starter starter, but they need at least another back up tackle worth spot starting and another guard for depth (unless Lamp finally turned into something) and then a center worth taking over if Pouncey misses 10+ games again. TO SB contender though I'd think they need at least LT, and a guard (then Feeny becomes the solid reserve guard) as starters and then still need RT and C back ups.

Pouncey played in all 16 games in 2017 and 2018. And Bulaga played in 30/32 games the last two seasons. Those two along with Turner who is one of the best guards in the league is a pretty solid group. If they can add someone like Ezra Cleveland, Austin Jackson, Josh Jones or Isaiah Wilson at #37 their line could be pretty damn good. 

[NYRaider]

13 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I really think CJ Henderson might tumble a bit. Right now his average draft slot is 16. He has major tackling issues for a CB which is a way bigger issue than fans make it out to be. NFL teams want someone who can tackle among every position. Unlike Delpit, you can’t even argue his tackling because he refuses to tackle, and that goes back to his previous season as well. 

I think there's a higher chance he goes in the top 10 then he falls down the board. 

[BayRaider]

1 minute ago, jimkelly02 said:

I’ll check it Out thanks.

without looking at it yet,,, it seems like a pff rating in the sense it might not be credible data.  

id want to know how often did he convert when pressured and have a small window to complete the ball.  If he has a low number of pressures that could alter the percentages.  And if he was pressured but had relatively open options then that’s not the same Thing as a pressure where he’s rushed to throw into a small window.  
just saying there’s always a lot of objectivity to these type of “stats”.

I don’t know, just looking at completion % under pressure on 3rd down, and solely 3rd down, so it’s not exactly a great stat. 
 

But it seems both those sites agree with Tua being the best tight-window thrower in the league, so I really do feel his accuracy/ball placement is super top-tier, and people really overblow the supporting cast argument.