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The Milwaukee Brewers Thread - CY Burnes, 2021 NL Central Champs


ramssuperbowl99

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3 hours ago, umphrey said:

Love Moose but does this signing lack creativity?  Might be hard to get value out of this with a healthy infield and solid performance from Aguilar and Hiura.

I think signing a career 3B to play 2B is definitely creative, and you do it because he's an excellent offensive fit on your team. 

You presented the "worst" case scenario for this signing; Shaw, Aguilar, and Hiura form an excellent infield, and Moose is the odd man out, getting ABs when the splits make sense or coming in a more defensive lineup (with Shaw moving to 1B). That scenario means the Brewers are getting great production at 1B, 2B, and 3B, and we have a high end bench piece who can be counted on for good ABs late game. That's all good stuff.

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We have too many players lol

We've got to cut down to 25, assuming no more moves, and we've got 14 viable bat options and 20 viable arms. I'm assuming we're going to slow play Nelson and give him some time in AAA on "rehab" and role with a rotation of Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Woodruff to start the year. Bullpen locks are Knebel, Jeffress, Hader, Claudio and Guerra. Leaves 2 or 3 spots for guys like Albers, Peralta, Williams, Petricka, Wahl, Barnes and Houser.

The bats get just as tight. Locks are Grandal, Pina, Aguilar, Shaw, Moose, Braun, Cain, Yelich, Gamel, Arcia and Perez. If we only carry 12 bats, things get real tight. Thames, Saladino and Spangenberg will battle for that spot assuming Dubon, Hager nor Orf have huge springs. 

I'm super interested to see what the opening day roster looks like because our rotation is far from set, we have 2, possibly 3, spots open in the bullpen assuming Burnes gets a rotation spot. It's 1, possibly 2, if we decide to keep Burnes in the BP in favor of keeping Davies up and getting Jimmy in there. What do we do with Thames? Do we trade him due to having the least amount of position flexibility sans Aguilar? Man, I have no clue LOL.

And no, @Herbie_Hancock, I see no way we sign Keuchel. Maybe if we plan on keeping Burnes/Woodruff in the bullpen and Dallas takes a 1 year deal or something of the sort. It's a real long shot tho. We already have a huge roster crunch lol.

Edited by beekay414
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lol we've got some great odds to start the year if you're a better...

18-1 to win World Series
9-1 to win the NL
+250 to win the Central
O/U of 86.5 (easy money - it was 82.5 last year)
Playoffs odds: Yes +150, No -180

All our odds are behind the Cubs and Cardinals LOL

Edited by beekay414
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5 hours ago, beekay414 said:

We have too many players lol

We've got to cut down to 25, assuming no more moves, and we've got 14 viable bat options and 20 viable arms. I'm assuming we're going to slow play Nelson and give him some time in AAA on "rehab" and role with a rotation of Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Burnes and Woodruff to start the year. Bullpen locks are Knebel, Jeffress, Hader, Claudio and Guerra. Leaves 2 or 3 spots for guys like Albers, Peralta, Williams, Petricka, Wahl, Barnes and Houser.

The bats get just as tight. Locks are Grandal, Pina, Aguilar, Shaw, Moose, Braun, Cain, Yelich, Gamel, Arcia and Perez. If we only carry 12 bats, things get real tight. Thames, Saladino and Spangenberg will battle for that spot assuming Dubon, Hager nor Orf have huge springs. 

I'm super interested to see what the opening day roster looks like because our rotation is far from set, we have 2, possibly 3, spots open in the bullpen assuming Burnes gets a rotation spot. It's 1, possibly 2, if we decide to keep Burnes in the BP in favor of keeping Davies up and getting Jimmy in there. What do we do with Thames? Do we trade him due to having the least amount of position flexibility sans Aguilar? Man, I have no clue LOL.

And no, @Herbie_Hancock, I see no way we sign Keuchel. Maybe if we plan on keeping Burnes/Woodruff in the bullpen and Dallas takes a 1 year deal or something of the sort. It's a real long shot tho. We already have a huge roster crunch lol.

There's no way we sign Keuchel. Mark A. pretty much said there wouldn't be any additional spending, but that we'd find the cash to add someone at the trade deadline if need be.

The 25-man is going to basically take care of itself. Almost every one of those bullpen arms has an option left, except Albers, and I expect he gets DFAd unless he has a monster spring. So we probably end up rotating almost every one of them except Peralta.

The bats are where things get a little tighter, sort of. Gamel has an option so we could start the year with him in AAA. That's probably not super likely, but otherwise it's pretty easy to keep Thames and option Saladino, then cut Spangenberg who isn't going to even get AAA playing time with Dubon or Hiura. I do think we end up cutting Perez at some point this year though. 

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Steamer projections for our bats...

Quote

C Grandal - 118 G, .237/.344/.453, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 115 wRC+
1B Aguilar - 135 G, .242/.317/.454, 28 HR, 83 RBI, 105 wRC+
2B Moustakas - 135 G, .261/.321/.489, 30 HR, 88 RBI, 113 wRC+
3B Shaw - 140 G, .249/.334/.457, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 110 wRC+
SS Arcia - 125 G, .253/.301/.377, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 80 wRC+
LF Braun - 117 G, .265/.330/.476, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 113 wRC+
CF Cain - 136 G, .284/.356/.422, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 111 wRC+
RF Yelich - 144 G, .297/.381/.515, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 140 wRC+

Thames - 63 G, .235/.329/.459, 13 HR, 36 RBI, 109 wRC+
Perez - 53 G, .253/.290/.394, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 81 wRC+
Gamel - 27 G, .267/.333/.393, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 95 wRC+
Pina - 24 G, .251/.306/.388, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 85 wRC+
Saladino - 20 G, .230/.293/.352, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 74 wRC+
Spangenberg - 18 G, .245/.306/.383, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 85 wRC+

 

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4 minutes ago, BrettFavre004 said:

So Lawrie, huh?

So Perez, moose or Shaw, Spangenberg and Lawrie??

somewhat underwhelming to start the year, IMO.  I wanted Dozier last year and this offseason, would have been a nice guy to plug in for a year 

Moose or Shaw is underwhelming? I'd argue it's better than Dozier considering how piss poor dude was last year and we got Moose to sign for the same term and, basically, AAV.

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On 2/23/2019 at 4:08 AM, beekay414 said:

Steamer projections for our bats...

Quote

C Grandal - 118 G, .237/.344/.453, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 115 wRC+
1B Aguilar - 135 G, .242/.317/.454, 28 HR, 83 RBI, 105 wRC+
2B Moustakas - 135 G, .261/.321/.489, 30 HR, 88 RBI, 113 wRC+
3B Shaw - 140 G, .249/.334/.457, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 110 wRC+
SS Arcia - 125 G, .253/.301/.377, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 80 wRC+
LF Braun - 117 G, .265/.330/.476, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 113 wRC+
CF Cain - 136 G, .284/.356/.422, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 111 wRC+
RF Yelich - 144 G, .297/.381/.515, 27 HR, 87 RBI, 140 wRC+

Thames - 63 G, .235/.329/.459, 13 HR, 36 RBI, 109 wRC+
Perez - 53 G, .253/.290/.394, 6 HR, 25 RBI, 81 wRC+
Gamel - 27 G, .267/.333/.393, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 95 wRC+
Pina - 24 G, .251/.306/.388, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 85 wRC+
Saladino - 20 G, .230/.293/.352, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 74 wRC+
Spangenberg - 18 G, .245/.306/.383, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 85 wRC+

 

This is a seriously impressive projection. There were 2 NL teams with a team wRC+ of more than 100, and we've got a wRC+ of 110 at basically every position that isn't SS and P, 2 bench bats that are league average, and this doesn't include the 2 top prospects who are going to upgrade 2 of Perez/Spangenberg/Saladino. 

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4 hours ago, beekay414 said:

Moose or Shaw is underwhelming? I'd argue it's better than Dozier considering how piss poor dude was last year and we got Moose to sign for the same term and, basically, AAV.

Both are only maybe a little above average bats and don’t think either will be stellar defensively.

 

at least neither are schoop :P

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3 minutes ago, BrettFavre004 said:

Both are only maybe a little above average bats and don’t think either will be stellar defensively.

 

at least neither are schoop :P

A little above average in what way? Both are 30 HR bats with solid OBP  and wRC+ numbers and we shift enough that they'll be fine at 2B. Our offense is legit.

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1 minute ago, beekay414 said:

A little above average in what way? Both are 30 HR bats with solid OBP  and wRC+ numbers and we shift enough that they'll be fine at 2B. Our offense is legit.

A league average offensive 2B has a wRC+ of 93. So Shaw/Moose give us a 20% above average bat there, which is hugely impactful (for reference, Cody Bellinger had a wRC+ of 120). 

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