Josh Allen [QB; Wyoming]

[Tugboat]

On 10/21/2017 at 1:08 AM, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Logan Thomas is my Josh Allen comparison. Incredible arm, prototype size, athletic, but incredibly inconsistent, poor footwork, "slow." Every time we've seen Allen against FBS defenses it looks like the game is moving too fast for him and he just breaks down. It's really hard to be high on this guy after watching him against Iowa and Oregon, even when you factor in how over matched his team was.

I can kinda see where that's coming from.  Josh Allen has a fair bit more polish in a lot of areas though, and more importantly...he's got a more versatile arm.  Logan Thomas for me was all "throw the ball as hard as possible".  Whereas Allen has that cannon of a arm when he needs it, but he does show at least a bit of touch at times...even if the accuracy is inconsistent at best, and he trusts that arm too much.

On 10/21/2017 at 8:36 PM, Bonanza23 said:

As of right now I think I’d bet on him. Depending on the offense that is. 

Yeah.  The sort of offense you're planning to plug a guy into is always a consideration.  With Mayfield it will definitely be a factor.  If he's going to work, it's going to take the right offense/coordinator who will let give him the framework to run around and improvise like that.  Which is...generally unpopular, and massively more difficult to pull off at the next level.

[Da_Ducktator]

Before I potentially elaborated on more of the quarterbacks, I just wanted to try and discuss Josh Allen in particular.

I understand that Allen has size, a strong arm, great athletic ability, and that everybody wants to find the next great small school and it's easy to point to Allen because of the Carson Wentz connection with them having the same head coach and OC. I also thoroughly understand that the guy has next to no help this season (poor blocking, no run game, underwhelming wide receivers), but when do we stop making excuses for the guy?

Let's just highlight a few points stat-wise before jumping into some of his flaws as a quarterback. A lot of people are giving Allen a pass because of the lack of surrounding talent. But Wyoming played a Hawaii team that has been absolutely dreadful versus the pass this year. Allen's numbers versus them? 9/19 for 92 yards. If you take out the game against Wyoming, Hawaii is giving up 328.5 yards per game and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.4% of their passes, the latter of which would rank last in the nation and the former second to last.

Allen has two games this season with UNDER 100 yards through the air and has exceeded 219 yards just once. When do the excuses stop and the blame starts being put on Allen for his own poor play? He is converting only 33.3% of his 3rd downs into 1st downs (a stat I've been tracking for years with QB prospects and this is a very bad conversion rate) and while we talk about how poor he has played versus Power 5 teams, against any FBS team with a winning record he has just 16 TD's to 16 INT's and when playing on the road, 10 TD's to 15 INT's.

Jay Cutler played far superior competition in the SEC with little surrounding talent and elevated Vanderbilt to a top 55 scoring and total yardage offense in his last season. 

So that brings me to the main question and something I don't think people are talking enough about; what is the root of Allen's problems? It seems like most people either trying to keep hyping the guy for his great tools or bashing him for his terrible numbers without actually watching and addressing what the issue is. First of all, I see absolutely horrendous footwork. And it's not just one issue, it's a lot of major and minor things. Allen leads with the wrong foot in shotgun, his dropbacks aren't fluid or straight back, he takes a lot of wasted steps (I saw him take 8, very short steps back while in the shotgun on a pass he threw to a RB on a flair route in which he only stared at the RB), he doesn't spring forward on his final step in the drop, he doesn't drive into his throws (feet go dead and are flat on throws), he doesn't readjust his feet to make throws. Even when he is completing passes, his feet are rarely aligned with his target. Additionally, because of this, he throws with a lot of powerful effort the majority of the time as opposed to effortless power. I've seen him essentially take these huge wind-ups because he is throwing entirely with his upper body right now.

Josh Allen shows a lot of toughness and quality tools. But he is as raw as they come and there is a TON of fundamental work to be done. Additionally, I haven't seen much in regards to anticipation throws from him and have seen a lot of ignoring open underneath options to try to unnecessarily push the ball into coverage (and these plays weren't on 3rd and longs). If you thought Wentz took a lot of bumps as a rookie to get where is as a sophomore, expect a whole lot more from Allen if he plays early.

TL;DR - Allen has a boatload of fundamental issues, particular stemming from his lower body, that is rarely being talked about while oozing over his raw tools or lambasting him for poor numbers.

[Zed Rational]

I agree that Josh Allen has extremely poor fundamentals. Question is, what kind of quarterback will he be when these fundamentals improve under the guidance of some good NFL coaching? 

I watched Allen against Boise State this past weekend. In two drives he looked like a potential NFL superstar. For the rest of the game he was awful. His supporters (like me) look at those two drives and say that this is what he can be. His detractors look at the rest of the game and say this is all he is and will ever be. I suspect that he will be drafted in the upper first round by a team that believes they can improve his fundamentals and get more of what we saw in those two good drives.

[Da_Ducktator]

5 minutes ago, Zed Rational said:

I agree that Josh Allen has extremely poor fundamentals. Question is, what kind of quarterback will he be when these fundamentals improve under the guidance of some good NFL coaching? 

I watched Allen against Boise State this past weekend. In two drives he looked like a potential NFL superstar. For the rest of the game he was awful. His supporters (like me) look at those two drives and say that this is what he can be. His detractors look at the rest of the game and say this is all he is and will ever be. I suspect that he will be drafted in the upper first round by a team that believes they can improve his fundamentals and get more of what we saw in those two good drives.

But how long is it going to take to develop these fundamentals? He is still young so he has that going for him (he's a not a 23-year old raw junior like Jarrod Evans was), but a team is going to need to show a lot of patience with Allen. And the question always is, specifically when there is a drastic amount of work to be done and a lot of it beginning with very fundamental issues, will he ever reach that level?

[Zed Rational]

12 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

But how long is it going to take to develop these fundamentals? 

Well, that's the million-dollar question, right? Some teachers teach more effectively than others, and some students learn more quickly than others. But we're talking footwork here, and not nuclear physics. One year? Two? Three? If I thought that Allen could learn proper fundamentals and use them consistently within three years, I'd regard him as worth the effort. I know nothing about what goes on between his ears, though. Fortunately, NFL teams can devote a lot of money and manpower into the effort to find out.

[Zed Rational]

I could see the Baltimore Ravens drafting Josh Allen with their first pick. Flacco is 32, so he could hold the spot for two or three years while Allen gets up to speed. It would be an all-or-nothing gamble, but that's pretty much the case with every first-round pick. I think that Baltimore is an organization with the vision, the patience, and the personnel to develop Allen.

[ronjon1990]

2 hours ago, Zed Rational said:

I could see the Baltimore Ravens drafting Josh Allen with their first pick. Flacco is 32, so he could hold the spot for two or three years while Allen gets up to speed. It would be an all-or-nothing gamble, but that's pretty much the case with every first-round pick. I think that Baltimore is an organization with the vision, the patience, and the personnel to develop Allen.

Patience is the biggest thing. The problem is, most teams don't look for patience with 1st rounders, particularly QB's. There are 3 trends I've seen with rookies- 

1. Like Winston and Mariota, they step right in and start with some varying degrees of success

2. Like Goff, they step in, struggle first, then play with success

3. Like Smith or Manuel, they step in, struggle, and the rumors begin over them being busts

Scenario 2 seems like the most likely to happen by nature, but unfortunately, it's #3 that takes the cake most of the time. 

Allen has a lot of kinks to work out. It is always a crapshoot with things like that. Also, I find it to be an injustice to these guys when people pile on the hype train so much and refuse to acknowledge the obvious flaws. Same thing is going on with Darnold- people are so enamored with him (not just on here, but every bit of media as well, so you know some of it gets back to him) that the flaws tend to get overlooked. I'm sure guys like Allen and Darnold would love to get their problems fixed. The question is, will a coach/gm/scout/fan base have the patience when a guy comes to them as an unfinished product after months and months of the talking heads hyping them up? 

If I were drafting, I would look for "finished products" in the first round, not someone who needs a bunch of help. Successful teams don't take the same position multiple years in a row in the 1st. Taking a guy in the 1st also seems to cause teams to avoid doubling down on certain positions in subsequent years, so it is important to get it right. Personally, I'm just not a fan of "tools they possess". I've been hard on Amari Cooper because of his drops and lack of overall production. I hear the excuses that he has the "tools" or "upside". Since then, Oakland hasn't addressed he position, hoping that he pans out. As do I. But when teams usually only carry 3 QBs (as opposed to 5, 6, 7 WRs), it makes it hard to stick with a high pick through thick or thin and hope their tools and potential are realized. 

[Tugboat]

5 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Patience is the biggest thing. The problem is, most teams don't look for patience with 1st rounders, particularly QB's. There are 3 trends I've seen with rookies- 

1. Like Winston and Mariota, they step right in and start with some varying degrees of success

2. Like Goff, they step in, struggle first, then play with success

3. Like Smith or Manuel, they step in, struggle, and the rumors begin over them being busts

Scenario 2 seems like the most likely to happen by nature, but unfortunately, it's #3 that takes the cake most of the time. 

Allen has a lot of kinks to work out. It is always a crapshoot with things like that. Also, I find it to be an injustice to these guys when people pile on the hype train so much and refuse to acknowledge the obvious flaws. Same thing is going on with Darnold- people are so enamored with him (not just on here, but every bit of media as well, so you know some of it gets back to him) that the flaws tend to get overlooked. I'm sure guys like Allen and Darnold would love to get their problems fixed. The question is, will a coach/gm/scout/fan base have the patience when a guy comes to them as an unfinished product after months and months of the talking heads hyping them up? 

If I were drafting, I would look for "finished products" in the first round, not someone who needs a bunch of help. Successful teams don't take the same position multiple years in a row in the 1st. Taking a guy in the 1st also seems to cause teams to avoid doubling down on certain positions in subsequent years, so it is important to get it right. Personally, I'm just not a fan of "tools they possess". I've been hard on Amari Cooper because of his drops and lack of overall production. I hear the excuses that he has the "tools" or "upside". Since then, Oakland hasn't addressed he position, hoping that he pans out. As do I. But when teams usually only carry 3 QBs (as opposed to 5, 6, 7 WRs), it makes it hard to stick with a high pick through thick or thin and hope their tools and potential are realized. 

That's a big part of what makes it so scary to pull the trigger on a QB high like that unless you're sure.  Especially a very raw "projection pick" guy.

Even if you do intend to let the guy sit for a while before you throw them into the fire...it ends up being a multi-year process that you're committing to.  Your team (and your job as a GM) are basically tied at the hip with what that guy becomes, and unless you end up with the rare rookie phenom who comes in and dominates, or the fail fast total bust who shows no promise after a year...there's that whole middleground of guys where you tend to get stuck in a "wait and see" mode on QBs for 3+ years.  It's obviously by far the worst position for that issue because at the end of the day, you can only have one starter at the position.  And you need to see them starting to figure out if they're going to be good enough or not.

[Forge]

11 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Before I potentially elaborated on more of the quarterbacks, I just wanted to try and discuss Josh Allen in particular.

I understand that Allen has size, a strong arm, great athletic ability, and that everybody wants to find the next great small school and it's easy to point to Allen because of the Carson Wentz connection with them having the same head coach and OC. I also thoroughly understand that the guy has next to no help this season (poor blocking, no run game, underwhelming wide receivers), but when do we stop making excuses for the guy?

Let's just highlight a few points stat-wise before jumping into some of his flaws as a quarterback. A lot of people are giving Allen a pass because of the lack of surrounding talent. But Wyoming played a Hawaii team that has been absolutely dreadful versus the pass this year. Allen's numbers versus them? 9/19 for 92 yards. If you take out the game against Wyoming, Hawaii is giving up 328.5 yards per game and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.4% of their passes, the latter of which would rank last in the nation and the former second to last.

Allen has two games this season with UNDER 100 yards through the air and has exceeded 219 yards just once. When do the excuses stop and the blame starts being put on Allen for his own poor play? He is converting only 33.3% of his 3rd downs into 1st downs (a stat I've been tracking for years with QB prospects and this is a very bad conversion rate) and while we talk about how poor he has played versus Power 5 teams, against any FBS team with a winning record he has just 16 TD's to 16 INT's and when playing on the road, 10 TD's to 15 INT's.

Jay Cutler played far superior competition in the SEC with little surrounding talent and elevated Vanderbilt to a top 55 scoring and total yardage offense in his last season. 

So that brings me to the main question and something I don't think people are talking enough about; what is the root of Allen's problems? It seems like most people either trying to keep hyping the guy for his great tools or bashing him for his terrible numbers without actually watching and addressing what the issue is. First of all, I see absolutely horrendous footwork. And it's not just one issue, it's a lot of major and minor things. Allen leads with the wrong foot in shotgun, his dropbacks aren't fluid or straight back, he takes a lot of wasted steps (I saw him take 8, very short steps back while in the shotgun on a pass he threw to a RB on a flair route in which he only stared at the RB), he doesn't spring forward on his final step in the drop, he doesn't drive into his throws (feet go dead and are flat on throws), he doesn't readjust his feet to make throws. Even when he is completing passes, his feet are rarely aligned with his target. Additionally, because of this, he throws with a lot of powerful effort the majority of the time as opposed to effortless power. I've seen him essentially take these huge wind-ups because he is throwing entirely with his upper body right now.

Josh Allen shows a lot of toughness and quality tools. But he is as raw as they come and there is a TON of fundamental work to be done. Additionally, I haven't seen much in regards to anticipation throws from him and have seen a lot of ignoring open underneath options to try to unnecessarily push the ball into coverage (and these plays weren't on 3rd and longs). If you thought Wentz took a lot of bumps as a rookie to get where is as a sophomore, expect a whole lot more from Allen if he plays early.

TL;DR - Allen has a boatload of fundamental issues, particular stemming from his lower body, that is rarely being talked about while oozing over his raw tools or lambasting him for poor numbers.

Strong post. I love Allen more than most, but agree with most of this. 

[Groink]

It's all really up to where he ends up going and who develops him.  He should already be sitting behind an veteran and learning, because coming back to this team did absolutely nothing for him.

[Da_Ducktator]

12 hours ago, Forge said:

Strong post. I love Allen more than most, but agree with most of this. 

I appreciate it. Wanted to make my first post strong

I noticed through the old posts in this thread that you have seen a good amount of Allen so I'm also curious what your thoughts are on this; while he seems to be a great athlete (big kid, runs well in a straight-line), I have seen him lose his footing a good amount while scrambling and he doesn't seem agile. When you couple that with his lower body mechanics (or lack thereof) while throwing, do you think Allen just completely lacks agility in his core and lower half? I think people get lost in a guy running fast in a straight-line, which Allen does, when hyping up athletic ability, but I haven't seen Allen ever make a smooth, quick cut while running and like I said, I've seen him stumble multiple times while scrambling.

[CWood21]

Great post @Da_Ducktator.  Hope we see you sticking around the forum.

[Forge]

23 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

I appreciate it. Wanted to make my first post strong

I noticed through the old posts in this thread that you have seen a good amount of Allen so I'm also curious what your thoughts are on this; while he seems to be a great athlete (big kid, runs well in a straight-line), I have seen him lose his footing a good amount while scrambling and he doesn't seem agile. When you couple that with his lower body mechanics (or lack thereof) while throwing, do you think Allen just completely lacks agility in his core and lower half? I think people get lost in a guy running fast in a straight-line, which Allen does, when hyping up athletic ability, but I haven't seen Allen ever make a smooth, quick cut while running and like I said, I've seen him stumble multiple times while scrambling.

Yeah, I did a ton of prep work for him last year. The Boise game really made me love him as a prospect last year, and even the Nebraska game, while it was a bit of a clustermess at the end with the turnovers, actually had quite a few things that really made me like him. He had some of the best throws from a physical skillset perspective that I saw all season. 

I agree that he lacks true agility / elusiveness. I think it's tough for bigger guys to really have that, particularly leggy ones like Allen. Colin Kaepernick is a perfect example. Super fast - but mostly straight line. He was very leggy as well, tall with gazelle like strides...definitely could not cut on a dime or anything. So I think that build is something that is just not conducive to true agility. Honestly, I'm kind of the opposite of most - I don't care for his running and athleticism for the most part. I said last year that I want him to put on 25 pounds or so, get around 250, which may hurt some of his pure speed and ability to move on the ground, but I think would greatly benefit him in other areas, particularly in segments actually related to throwing the football. 

[Iamcanadian]

I'll just throw in a stat that could really effect how he looks passing in college. He leads all the top QB prospects in being pressured on each pass. Over a quarter of the time, he has somebody very close to him when he is throwing the ball and his receivers are not special and need extra time to get open, a bad combination if you ask me. According to the stats, his OL is not bad, it's terrible and his WR's have great difficulty getting separation, so some team will draft him in round 1 to see what he can do with real talent around him.

[BleedTheClock]

11 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I'll just throw in a stat that could really effect how he looks passing in college. He leads all the top QB prospects in being pressured on each pass. Over a quarter of the time, he has somebody very close to him when he is throwing the ball and his receivers are not special and need extra time to get open, a bad combination if you ask me. According to the stats, his OL is not bad, it's terrible and his WR's have great difficulty getting separation, so some team will draft him in round 1 to see what he can do with real talent around him.

I'm a big Josh Allen fan, but this is more of a negative than anything else. Dudes that get murked in college tend to develop happy feet. When the WR's can't get open, they feel like they have to make presnap decisions on who they'll throw to. Bad habits develop when you have dookie all around you...typically.

That being said, I still like Allen and think he'll go in the 1st round. He has a ton of talent, but I don't think we should bump him up because of how bad his supporting cast is. It's certainly worth noting, but I wouldn't move his draft arrow up or down based on that.