Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 12/14/2021 at 1:12 PM, Broncofan said:

Adding LV ML +180 4U LV +3 1H 2U & RACE to 20 / 25  / 30 (+250 / +500 / +750) right now.   Rumors of a massive COVID wave to be reported soon.  Worst case no story and I void.  

 

On 12/15/2021 at 12:20 PM, Broncofan said:

 

And today's news drops with Stefanski/Baker being added, and then CB Troy Hill S John Johnson, and DT Malik Mcdowell & LB Anthony Walker.   So EVERY unit is affected.   And again, with the OL/TE/WR & DL and now QB/CB/LB groups exposed, we could see more positives in the next 1-2 days.

It's now LV -1.5, and CLE is now +105 on the ML.   If you were fortunate enough to have bet LV ML, or LV +3 (post-news) or LV+4 before the lines were taken down - you now can ride it out for massive plus money with the favored team, or you can even hedge both ways (I'd personally wait as I think CLE ML is going to go up, might even be +150 to +180), and guarantee a W - or be REALLY greedy and try and middle the bet with a CLE +whatever it ends at, and stay with the LV ML bet.

With 12.4U worth of bets in with a max payout of 27.2U; I'm going to let the odds ride, I only see them going more in favor of LV for now.

 

23 hours ago, NYRaider said:

This is one I'd personally stay away from. The Raiders team is falling apart on and off the field. Plus the weather conditions are supposed to be terrible and we absolutely cannot run the ball at all.

 

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The ML is now already CLE +105.  Those were pre-COVID news odds I got so the value gain is already there.    I suspect it will increase even more.  
 

Probably looking to hedge in game or even middle it.  

 

 

So since that time, now this:

 

Which takes out the last run-stopping safety on their team.  And even more compelling....

Honestly, wouldn't be surprised if CLE is +3 and +180 by the time the game starts.   Won't lie, if the odds are that good, I''l probably hope for a LV early lead, and then hedge out CLE for +300 and guarantee a win either way (like 5U CLE +300 ML down 7-0, and then I either win +2.8U with CLE, or win 22.2U with LV).   Either way, this is one of those once-in-a-blue-moon opps, props to those who got LV even at +140 when the line went back up.

[N4L]

I came here to say how much I love the under tonight and how I have been waiting for the line to keep going up. Almost to 54 now. I like how @Broncofan and @SaveOurSonics are already here talking about it

I am doing straight bets on KC-3, under 54, and I will tease that as well. Under was the biggest risk of those three

KC will run the ball a lot tonight and chew clock. Staleys defense is predicated on stopping the pass with two high and they will limit the explosive plays. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by N4L

[SaveOurSonics]

15 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Kelce O5.5 catches +120

Where in the world are you getting this at +120? It's currently sitting at -156 on my book. 

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'm interested in Allen catch props (yes I'd take O7.5 at plus money), but they're not out yet awaiting to see if he's active or not (almost certainly is).

My book has it at O/U 6.5 at -130 fwiw. 

[SaveOurSonics]

2 minutes ago, N4L said:

I came here to say how much I love the under tonight and how I have been waiting for the line to keep going up. Almost to 54 now. I like how @Broncofan is already here talking about it

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Where in the world are you getting this at +120? It's currently sitting at -156 on my book. 

My book has it at O/U 6.5 at -130 fwiw. 

Got it when it opened, it's -150 on our books ....kinda got busy with all the Covid info, and the CLE-LV bets.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, N4L said:

I came here to say how much I love the under tonight and how I have been waiting for the line to keep going up. Almost to 54 now. I like how @Broncofan is already here talking about it

I am doing straight bets on KC-3, under 54, and I will tease that as well. Under was the biggest risk of those three

KC will run the ball a lot tonight and chew clock. Staleys defense is predicated on stopping the pass with two high and they will limit the explosive plays. 

FYI - Chardavius Ward is suddenly questionable with an illness.   I've seen enough with KC's D depletion I'm sticking with LAC ML.   But I get the reasoning, just this is a very fluid situation.  I see it as a pick 'em, but if that's the case, I'll go with the home dog (even if LA isn't really home lol).    The RACE reasoning is no matter who wins, it's likely playing with a lead is the path, so RACE's have even more value.

[SaveOurSonics]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Got it when it opened, it's -150 on our books ....kinda got busy with all the Covid info, and the CLE-LV bets.

Great value in that case. I figured it was a typo when I first read it. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Great value in that case. I figured it was a typo when I first read it. 

Kelce's been downright pedestrian for the last 3 weeks, gamescript has worked against him in a huge way.  But the Chargers D have long prioritized containing Tyreek Hill and let Kelce be the safety valve.   Why I like the catch prop more than yards, especially at plus money. 

[SaveOurSonics]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Why I like the catch prop more than yards, especially at plus money.

At +money, absolutely. That said, here's Kelce's yardage this season in games where he's caught at least 5 balls (so less than the O/U even): 

6 for 76
7 for 109 
7 for 104
6 for 57
8 for 99 
7 for 65
5 for 68
8 for 119
5 for 74

You'll notice that there has only been one game all year where Kelce has hit the O5.5 and NOT hit 65 yards, and that one game was from neither of his 5 catch outings. If he hits his catches, he's hitting his yards. If you gave me even odds on both catches and yards, I'd take the yards. 

To your point about game script, last week's blowout was the first time all year Kelce saw less than 6 targets and the first time in the last 5 games that he's seen fewer than 8 targets. Realistically I think we'll see him exceed both yards and catches tonight. 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

At +money, absolutely. That said, here's Kelce's yardage this season in games where he's caught at least 5 balls (so less than the O/U even): 

6 for 76
7 for 109 
7 for 104
6 for 57
8 for 99 
7 for 65
5 for 68
8 for 119
5 for 74

You'll notice that there has only been one game all year where Kelce has hit the O5.5 and NOT hit 65 yards, and that one game was from neither of his 5 catch outings. If he hits his catches, he's hitting his yards. If you gave me even odds on both catches and yards, I'd take the yards. 

To your point about game script, last week's blowout was the first time all year Kelce saw less than 6 targets and the first time in the last 5 games that he's seen fewer than 8 targets. Realistically I think we'll see him exceed both yards and catches tonight. 

Absolutely - just that plus money matters.

[SaveOurSonics]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Absolutely - just that plus money matters.

100%. Very jealous you got that, sounds like an absolute smash spot. 

[Broncofan]

36 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

 

 

So since that time, now this:

 

Which takes out the last run-stopping safety on their team.  And even more compelling....

Honestly, wouldn't be surprised if CLE is +3 and +180 by the time the game starts.   Won't lie, if the odds are that good, I''l probably hope for a LV early lead, and then hedge out CLE for +300 and guarantee a win either way (like 5U CLE +300 ML down 7-0, and then I either win +2.8U with CLE, or win 22.2U with LV).   Either way, this is one of those once-in-a-blue-moon opps, props to those who got LV even at +140 when the line went back up.

I take it back - it wouldn't suprise me if CLE is +4 or more now....4 more players on D coming up, and now it's Nick Mullens as their 3rd string QB starting.    Jarvis Landry is also their emergency QB, and he's on the Covid list.

 

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

100%. Very jealous you got that, sounds like an absolute smash spot. 

TBH I never want to lose $ any time...but I'm probably the bigger Raiders fan this week.   That's what happens when you have 12.2U to win 27.4U, basically on LV beating this depleted CLE team.   

Betting makes for strange combos, me cheering HARD for the Raiders.  LOL. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

8 hours ago, agarcia34 said:

Absolutely love KC tonight. Will wait for a couple of Chargers players to become active in hope of getting a -2.5

CEH over 56.5 rushing yards 

Kelce over 66.6 rec yards 

I love KC so much my brain is playing mind tricks on me…. I love it so much I’m going with Chargers +3 placed bet and locked in already… still love those props. 

[N4L]

41 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

100%. Very jealous you got that, sounds like an absolute smash spot. 

He said earlier in the week that he expected the raiders to be favored by kickoff because the browns were about to get hit with covid pretty bad. Phenomenal foresight