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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Micah Parsons or Diggs seem like a good bets at +190/+900, they've both gotten so much media coverage.

Parsons has 4.5 fewer sacks, 1 fewer PD, 1 fewer FF, and 3 fewer FRs this season, in 3 more games played than TJ Watt. The media coverage hype is the only reason Parsons is getting close to +190 odds. Similar to my rationale for Vrabel taking COY, I also think it's unlikely that we see Parsons win both DROY and DPOY with the numbers he's posted (and a disappointing statistical game against Arizona). 

There's a reason Diggs odds are plummeting. It's just so difficult for DBs to win the award and Parsons takes away from him chances. 

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4 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Parsons has 4.5 fewer sacks, 1 fewer PD, 1 fewer FF, and 3 fewer FRs this season, in 3 more games played than TJ Watt. The media coverage hype is the only reason Parsons is getting close to +190 odds. Similar to my rationale for Vrabel taking COY, I also think it's unlikely that we see Parsons win both DROY and DPOY with the numbers he's posted (and a disappointing statistical game against Arizona). 

There's a reason Diggs odds are plummeting. It's just so difficult for DBs to win the award and Parsons takes away from him chances. 

I got you. Weren't people pretty upset about Donald getting it over Watt last season? Statistically Watt had a better year across the board.

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5 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Also going back to 2010, only one player has won DPOY that wasn't on a playoff team (JJ) but the Texans were 9-7.

That's a very fair point. Problem is that there's not really any standout candidates on playoff teams (at least IMO, having already shared my thoughts on the Cowboys). The NFL's top 3 sacks leaders are on teams that will (likely) not make the playoffs in Robert Quinn, TJ Watt, and Myles Garrett. You then have Bosa and Hendrickson next in line, which while on playoff teams, don't really have any of the hype or splash plays to justify it. 

Extrapolating the games missed with his per-game averages, Watt is pacing toward 22.5 sacks. He's truly been elite when on the field, and I'm banking on him closing strong to end the year. There's a reason his odds went from +200 to +125 after yesterday's games. 

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5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

About a dozen Eagles test positive for Covid, including Goedert, Kelce, and Cox. Wouldn't be surprised if more were to come out in the upcoming days. Even if they're probable to be cleared to play, we've seen the impact it has on your first game back, and these are all key players for the Eagles on both sides of the ball. 


The Cowboys are undefeated this season following a loss (3-0) with all three wins against playoff contending teams (Chargers, Saints, Falcons) and I expect them to spy Hurts with Parsons and Smith with Diggs, severely limiting what the Eagles can do on offense. They already thumped them in the first matchup this year 41-21. 

 

I was able to get them 2U at -3.5

FWIW I think it's far more likely PHI just sits their guys.   They gain nothing by bringing them back for a meaningless game.   I think as long as DAL is -7 or better, great value, so obviously -3.5 is terrific.

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8 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Everyone on offense looks incredibly disinterested. I know they’re eliminated, but pretty incredible for a division game on primetime. 

Baker's killing their mojo.  I've seen it a LOT in Denver.   When the QB is dragging everyone else, it's so deflating.  

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6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Baker's killing their mojo.  I've seen it a LOT in Denver.   When the QB is dragging everyone else, it's so deflating.  

What in the world is Stefanski doing? You have an elite running game going against the leagues worst run defense and you passed on the majority of plays of every drive this half. Your QB is banged up and just borderline single-handedly lost you your last game. It’s asinine game planning. 

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