Broncofan Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Hurst benefits the most IMO, but tonight I’ll be backing Mixon over 67.5 rushing yards. Simply, Cleveland has not been good versus the run these last few weeks, or this season, for that matter. Mixon has looked healthier lately, the OL is starting to gel, and with Chase out the Bengals will need to rely on the run more. I think this is a 20 carries x 4 YPC type of game. 67.5 too low IMO for a game in which I expect us to lead. Also will likely go rushing milestone over 100 yards +390 for 0.5U. Absolutely the way to go prop wise. Will tail Mixon on FD for O65.5 2U main prop, and also take the 1U alt line 80+ +180 & 100+ +400 0.5U (all FD lines) The other prop that NO books have right now - Harrison Bryant rec yds. They're waiting to see if Bryant is the only active TE, or if Pharoah Brown will play. If it's anything less than 40, just hammer it and get the 50/75 yard props as well. I'm also going to go with the Harrison Byant +400 TD prop / +4000 2+ (already down to +360/+3000 on FD) and 2 longshot TD props - Mike Thomas +500 / Trent Taylor +1100 (FD again) for 0.5U each. With Stanley Morgan out, it's those 2 - and frankly, I think it's more likely Taylor plays a lot of slot, and could be the sneaky value. I don't think books accounted for Morgan being out here (although to be fair, CIN might run the ball to the EZ each time lol). BOL! That's 5.5U on the line, so with the Allen TD props losing, I'm basically putting my +2U Week 8 on the line (lol). BOL! Edited October 31, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Want to say that Mixon could go over 100,but not so sure. The Bengals may still go pass heavy and Mixon didn't exactly smash last week against a similarly poor run defense in Atlanta. Also not sure about Boyds receiving yardage and a report of him lining up in multiple spots with Chase out. Would he still be effective lining up outside? Higgins should hit especially with Ward out. Emerson has been good but Williams will be on the other side. Peoples-Jones will probably have whoever the Bengals trout out with Apple injured. Should be another good receiving yardage day for him. Awuzie has been really good this year and should be on Cooper alot. Chubb should have his normal rushing day. Bengals have had a good run defense this year but haven't faced anyone on Chubb's and the Cleveland o-line level this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Dash said: Want to say that Mixon could go over 100,but not so sure. The Bengals may still go pass heavy and Mixon didn't exactly smash last week against a similarly poor run defense in Atlanta. Certainly possible they remain in the gun, but Atlanta has been above average versus the run. 1 hour ago, Dash said: Also not sure about Boyds receiving yardage and a report of him lining up in multiple spots with Chase out. Would he still be effective lining up outside? I imagine he’ll remain in the slot in 3+ receiver sets. Definitely not someone you want on the perimeter. 1 hour ago, Dash said: Higgins should hit especially with Ward out. Emerson has been good but Williams will be on the other side. My only concern is that he could face the double teams that Chase received as our only legitimate boundary receiver. 1 hour ago, Dash said: Chubb should have his normal rushing day. Bengals have had a good run defense this year but haven't faced anyone on Chubb's and the Cleveland o-line level this year. We were good with DJ Reader healthy, without him we are well below average. Chubb should be able to find success on the ground. I guarantee our game plan will be focused on getting out to an early lead and putting the ball in Brissett’s hands. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Hurst benefits the most IMO, but tonight I’ll be backing Mixon over 67.5 rushing yards. Simply, Cleveland has not been good versus the run these last few weeks, or this season, for that matter. Mixon has looked healthier lately, the OL is starting to gel, and with Chase out the Bengals will need to rely on the run more. I think this is a 20 carries x 4 YPC type of game. 67.5 too low IMO for a game in which I expect us to lead. Also will likely go rushing milestone over 100 yards +390 for 0.5U. I know you dont like betting against your team, but what do you think about Chubb over 82 rushing yards? Your top two DTs are out, no? EDIT: nevermind, answered above Edited October 31, 2022 by N4L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: We were good with DJ Reader healthy, without him we are well below average. Chubb should be able to find success on the ground. I guarantee our game plan will be focused on getting out to an early lead and putting the ball in Brissett’s hands. Even if the bengals get out to an early lead, I expect the browns to continue to run the ball. They arent going to abandon the run until very late in the game and down 3 scores. Until then, I bet they continue to lean on Chubb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) Fwiw if there’s anything 2022 has shown backing RB performance is the way to go. I’d back both RB’s tonight. Added Chubb O81.5 rush yds (FD) for 2U and 100+ for +180 1U as well. Edited October 31, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) Looking at Trent Taylor +1100.. I suspect he will get some run tonight, but he would still be the 5th (6th behind Burrow just running it) option so I'd like those odds to be a bit longer. Agreed with backing Chubb and Mixon, it's gonna be one of those games Edited October 31, 2022 by adamq 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 hours ago, adamq said: Looking at Trent Taylor +1100.. I suspect he will get some run tonight, but he would still be the 5th (6th behind Burrow just running it) option so I'd like those odds to be a bit longer. Agreed with backing Chubb and Mixon, it's gonna be one of those games If we stick to our recipe for success and remain in the gun, Trent is going to see the field as the second slot (and he’ll very likely be slot only). He’s actually a good player, just not sure how many snaps he’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) Adding Harrison Bryant o28.5 Rec yards 2U, 50+ Rec yds +320 & 75+ Rec yds 0.5U This is the prop I think has the highest confidence with Njoku out. Just took forever for books to get out. With Chubb 3U play that’s 12U on the line tonight. BOL! Edited October 31, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 Don't take the fanduel Halloween boost! Giannis has never scored more than 28 on Halloween! 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 4 hours ago, N4L said: Even if the bengals get out to an early lead, I expect the browns to continue to run the ball. They arent going to abandon the run until very late in the game and down 3 scores. Until then, I bet they continue to lean on Chubb Chubb will get his. And agreed, I just finished watching last weeks Browns game. Even down 10 in the 4th quarter they we’re giving Chubb his touches. I like Mixon and Chubb both to score tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) Looks like we won’t be the only ones rooting hard for Mixon rush props. This guy bet a 17-leg on his wedding day. Now he’s Mixon leg away from 124K payout. Passed on a 65K cash out offer lol. The offer was actually very reasonable. Edited October 31, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Looks like we won’t be the only ones rooting hard for Mixon rush props. This guy bet a 17-leg on his wedding day. Now he’s Mixon leg away from 124K payout. Passed on a 65K cash out offer lol. The offer was actually very reasonable. Take the cash. Not worth the stress. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: Looks like we won’t be the only ones rooting hard for Mixon rush props. This guy bet a 17-leg on his wedding day. Now he’s Mixon leg away from 124K payout. Passed on a 65K cash out offer lol. The offer was actually very reasonable. He should probably show this to Mixon and say that he ruined the honeymoon week and the marriage is starting out rocky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Dash said: He should probably show this to Mixon and say that he ruined the honeymoon week and the marriage is starting out rocky. Not much Mixon could do with 8 carries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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