Weekly Bets Thread

[bigbadbuff]

Patterson getting no touches. Sorry guys, it’s because I’m absolutely ice cold and i bet his over. 

[Broncofan]

52 minutes ago, adamq said:

That definitely could have been our Sullivan TD.. good call @Broncofan

Well I got the Shenault TD at +1100.   But yeah Sullivan had the corner route.   Oh well.  
 

Really could use the Falcons to realize it’s all C-Patt show from now on.   

[SmittyBacall]

On 11/8/2022 at 2:53 PM, Broncofan said:

Cordarelle Patterson O51.5 rush yds 4U / 70+ alt line FD / 90+ alt line FD (not released) - so the context - Allgeir got 10 carries for 90 yds, C-Patt got 13-48-1, and now the line comes out at 51.5 yds.  But here's the thing - the intentional plan was to "ease him back in" last week - knowing they had a TNF game.   So they kept him for the important 3rd down and RZ work - where his carry / yardage potential was more limited.   Remember that ATL likes to run it 35-40x a game as their default (they've done that 5/9 times, and the 4 times they didn't get to 35 carries - 31, 31, 29 & 27 - and the sub-30 games were those they trailed big - LAR & CIN).    I think ATL wins this game, so I see a 40+ rush game, and I'll put Cordy for 18-21 of them, Allgeir for 12-15, and Mariota/RB3 for the rest - which puts Cordy at the 75+ yard mark IMO.   That's what makes this a 4U play, and 2U for the alt line.    Won't lie, these always scare me, but this reminds me so much of Jonathan Taylor @ SF and D'Ernest Johnson vs. DEN last year, I have to trust my evaluations here.

☹️

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

☹️

Yeah I’m worried to say the least.  
 

They used Allgier for 3 runs in the most important series on their 2 yard line.  And then their FOURTH string guy on 2 minute drill to run 2x to get 18 yards that CPatt normally gets.   Instead of 5/24 at halftime it’s bad.  
 

C-Patt can save the night with 1 touch - but you gotta use him.    But still bad call on my end thinking a must-win game where they paced his Sun touches that they’d use him - only to give 3 Carries and 9 to the other RB’s in 1H.     Sigh.  

Edited November 11, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 11/8/2022 at 2:53 PM, Broncofan said:

OK for Week 10, some early TD plays are out, and 1 player prop that I'm going to dive in and go for a 4U play, with 2U/1U alt line play as well once it's out (gulp):

ATS/ML

TNF

ATL -3 @ CAR - teams headed in diff directions.   The Panthers got some crazy plays to stay in the game - while I do think they'll have success running the ball - I don't think they can keep up with ATL on a short week, with their QB play regressing further.   

SUN

MIN +7.5 @ BUF - I think Allen plays - but if he doesn't this line drops at least 3-4 points.  I'm already OK with keeping it at 7.5 pts for the Vikes , and giving some all-important protection against the 7-pt loss.  

DEN +3 @ TEN - to be clear, I can't back a DEN win here.   But with both Malik Willis likely to start, TEN playing on a short week, having had their D on the field for 87 plays (!!!), and DEN having been on a bye - I envision a 19-17 type game.   So give me the 3 pts, worst-case I get a push.   Follows the "back TEN as a dog, pass/fade as a fave" principle.  I won't lie, I wasn't even close to interested b4 MNF, but the OT circumstances, and the fact Ryan Tannehill is almost certainly missing this game - well, now I'm interested.   But I'm not going to back a ML play, here I'll just take the points.

SEA ML @ TAM +130 / RACE to 20/25 (not released) - I know, it's SEA travelling east.   That's legit.  But honestly, with SEA's D being so much improved, and TAM's OL in shambles, and their D lacking great pass rushers, IMO this should be a pick 'em even at Tampa.    So I have to take the + money and a RACE to 20/25 is fine here.

JAX +10.0 @ KC -120 - the big risk is we get bad Trevor showing up.   But if we don't, the JAX run game and their improved D gives a decent chance to stay close.   I don't think they win, but at 10 pts, it's an easy play.   The fact JAX can generate edge pressure, and the run game with Etienne can eat clock, it's why I'm willing to take the points.

SNF

LAC +7 @ SF - I totally get it, SF's D is great, and CMC adds a new feature to the O that few D's can match - and LAC's run D takes a TERRIBLE hit with Austin Johnson out for the year.   This is simply a reflection that I won't back the Chargers to win, but I have no faith in backing any JimmyG led O to such a wide gap, especially when you have an elite talent QB on the other side.   Give me the points. 

MNF

PHI -10.0 vs. WAS - on the other hand, give me the Iggles D and what they can do to the Commies O, and same on the other side of the ball.    This might be the last game we see Taylor Heinecke play as starter (the MIN game was miraged by a miracle ball to Samuel with the refs' help, and the IND by Frank Reich turtling in the last 10 mins of game to let a 9 pt lead slip away).   

 

PLAYER PROPS - TNF ONLY

Cordarelle Patterson O51.5 rush yds 4U / 70+ alt line FD / 90+ alt line FD (not released) - so the context - Allgeir got 10 carries for 90 yds, C-Patt got 13-48-1, and now the line comes out at 51.5 yds.  But here's the thing - the intentional plan was to "ease him back in" last week - knowing they had a TNF game.   So they kept him for the important 3rd down and RZ work - where his carry / yardage potential was more limited.   Remember that ATL likes to run it 35-40x a game as their default (they've done that 5/9 times, and the 4 times they didn't get to 35 carries - 31, 31, 29 & 27 - and the sub-30 games were those they trailed big - LAR & CIN).    I think ATL wins this game, so I see a 40+ rush game, and I'll put Cordy for 18-21 of them, Allgeir for 12-15, and Mariota/RB3 for the rest - which puts Cordy at the 75+ yard mark IMO.   That's what makes this a 4U play, and 2U for the alt line.    Won't lie, these always scare me, but this reminds me so much of Jonathan Taylor @ SF and D'Ernest Johnson vs. DEN last year, I have to trust my evaluations here.

LONGSHOT TD PLAYS - TNF ONLY

Damiere Byrd +800 FD 0.5U - he whiffed last week, but he's going to face the weaker CB's on CAR's side, while Drake London and Kyle Pitts get the attention.  The weather being possible for rain is why I'm only playing 0.5U's for TNF.

Khadarel Hodge +2100 FD 0.5U - he's the 4th WR, but it's +2100.   Worth a 0.5U play.

Stephen Sullivan +1200 DK 0.5U - who? He's the 3rd TE on CAR - but he's been coming on and getting more snaps until he got sick last week, and missed the game.    Much like ATL, CAR uses a lot of 12 personnel, but starting to use him releasing out when they go play action.   

 

So it's a 8.5U play for TNF, and I am interested to see where D'onta Foreman's rush props end up - there is a rain potential for TNF, which is another reason why I only want rush props (plus rush props on short weeks are far more reliable IMO); while my Sun card has more ATS/ML action this week.    All you DK/FD users - get in on the great lines if you're tailing - I don't see the props getting better than now.  BOL!

 

13 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's crazy how much Vegas thinks it's going to be affected - Sullivan's prop went from +1200 to +3500.   I took a free SGP on that prop with Patterson O51.5 rush yds / Sullivan +3700 for 0.4U at +7050 on FD, and with the other free SGP 0.4U play on DK, I decided to go Laviska Shenault +1100 / C-Patt O51.5 rush yds for +2100.  Plus 0.5U plays on each solo given the numbers.  
 

  Basically, I'm willing to bank on C-Patt rush + truly longshot TD's, but with a broken play / rush / RZ 12-13 formations.

 

2 hours ago, adamq said:

That definitely could have been our Sullivan TD.. good call @Broncofan

 

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Well I got the Shenault TD at +1100.   But yeah Sullivan had the corner route.   Oh well.  
 

Really could use the Falcons to realize it’s all C-Patt show from now on.   

Man, it's official - I'm on a cold streak player prop wise.  It sucks, because my TD run is keeping it from being a disaster...but it's still not good.

The worst part - if I don't go so heavy on C-Patt, Foreman is the #2 guy...and even though I go 1-1, it's still a nice profit night.   Instead, even with 0.5U Shenault +1100, I go -5.5U for the night, -1U on ATL-3, -7U on C-Patt and -2U on the other 0.5U TD plays.    Sigh.  

It's not even that C-Patt loses....it's that it wasn't even close.  5 carries, 6 touches.    God, that's embarrassing.   Going to have to back off the high-confidence plays - the flip side is the cost is high when they miss.  Until I reverse the trend, better to ease up. 

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

34 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

 

Man, it's official - I'm on a cold streak player prop wise.  It sucks, because my TD run is keeping it from being a disaster...but it's still not good.

The worst part - if I don't go so heavy on C-Patt, Foreman is the #2 guy...and even though I go 1-1, it's still a nice profit night.   Instead, even with 0.5U Shenault +1100, I go -5.5U for the night, -1U on ATL-3, -7U on C-Patt and -2U on the other 0.5U TD plays.    Sigh.  

It's not even that C-Patt loses....it's that it wasn't even close.  5 carries, 6 touches.    God, that's embarrassing.   Going to have to back off the high-confidence plays - the flip side is the cost is high when they miss.  Until I reverse the trend, better to ease up. 

 

 

 

Um, I guess I spoke too soon......KHADAREL HODGE +2200 0.5U saves my *** in a massive way - so instead of losing 4.5U....I'm somehow UP +6.5U even after losing 7U on C-Patt alone.    

Still need to back off the player prop plays, though but I'll take it.

WEEK 10 TNF                                                                                                                                                                   .                    
ATS/ ML & RACE

22-19-1 ATS, 9-13 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (-1.0U Week 10 TNF).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

64-60  BALANCE  +48.5U (-7.0U Week 10 TNF) - Now 29-25 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

18-58, BALANCE +102.0U (+14.5U Week 10 TNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200).    
 

TOTAL:  +151.1U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 TNF - +6.5U)

Edited November 11, 2022 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

14 hours ago, bigbadbuff said:

Patterson getting no touches. Sorry guys, it’s because I’m absolutely ice cold and i bet his over. 

Relying on Arthur Smith to do anything logical like using his best players is a guaranteed way to have a bad time. 

[NYRaider]

Some of the lines that I like: 

Tyler Lockett: O62.5 receiving yards (-114) | Anytime TD (+170) - The Buccaneers are the second worst team in the NFL when it comes to defending opponents #2 WR. Lockett has went over 62.5 yards in 6/8 games and has TD's in each of the last two weeks. 

Cade Otton: Anytime TD (+290) | O Receiving (TBD) - The Seahawks are dead last in the NFL against TE this season allowing nearly 78 ypg and 5 TD through the first 9 weeks. Otton has played 85%+ of the Bucs snaps over the last three weeks including last week where he had 68 yards and the game winning TD. Think this is one of the biggest smash spots of the week. 

[Broncofan]

On 11/11/2022 at 12:10 PM, NYRaider said:

Some of the lines that I like: 

Tyler Lockett: O62.5 receiving yards (-114) | Anytime TD (+170) - The Buccaneers are the second worst team in the NFL when it comes to defending opponents #2 WR. Lockett has went over 62.5 yards in 6/8 games and has TD's in each of the last two weeks. 

Cade Otton: Anytime TD (+290) | O Receiving (TBD) - The Seahawks are dead last in the NFL against TE this season allowing nearly 78 ypg and 5 TD through the first 9 weeks. Otton has played 85%+ of the Bucs snaps over the last three weeks including last week where he had 68 yards and the game winning TD. Think this is one of the biggest smash spots of the week. 

Otton is +425 / +4500 2+ on DK.  Took 0.8U / 0.2U.  

 

Some early player props / longshot TD's adding to the ATS/ML card (which I'm updating from my Tuesday post):

 

ATS / ML & RACE - UPDATED FROM TUESDAY

MIN +7.5 @ BUF, NOW +3.5 - Back on Tuesday, I thought Allen plays - but if it looks like he won't, and the  line dropped to +3.5 already.  I'm already OK with keeping it at 7.5 pts for the Vikes , and giving some all-important protection against the 7-pt loss.  

DEN +3 @ TEN, NOW +2.5 - to be clear, I can't back a DEN win here.   But with both Malik Willis likely to start, TEN playing on a short week, having had their D on the field for 87 plays (!!!), and DEN having been on a bye - I envision a 19-17 type game.   So give me the 3 pts, worst-case I get a push.   Follows the "back TEN as a dog, pass/fade as a fave" principle.  I won't lie, I wasn't even close to interested b4 MNF, but the OT circumstances, and the fact Ryan Tannehill is almost certainly missing this game - well, now I'm interested.   But I'm not going to back a ML play, here I'll just take the points.

SEA ML @ TAM +130 / RACE to 20/25 (not released) - I know, it's SEA travelling east.   That's legit.  But honestly, with SEA's D being so much improved, and TAM's OL in shambles, and their D lacking great pass rushers, IMO this should be a pick 'em even at Tampa.    So I have to take the + money and a RACE to 20/25 is fine here.

JAX +10.0 @ KC -120, now +9.5 - the big risk is we get bad Trevor showing up.   But if we don't, the JAX run game and their improved D gives a decent chance to stay close.   I don't think they win, but at 10 pts, it's an easy play.   The fact JAX can generate edge pressure, and the run game with Etienne can eat clock, it's why I'm willing to take the points.

SNF

LAC +7 @ SF - I totally get it, SF's D is great, and CMC adds a new feature to the O that few D's can match - and LAC's run D takes a TERRIBLE hit with Austin Johnson out for the year.   This is simply a reflection that I won't back the Chargers to win, but I have no faith in backing any JimmyG led O to such a wide gap, especially when you have an elite talent QB on the other side.   Give me the points. 

MNF

PHI -10.0 vs. WAS, now -11.0 - on the other hand, give me the Iggles D and what they can do to the Commies O, and same on the other side of the ball.    This might be the last game we see Taylor Heinecke play as starter (the MIN game was miraged by a miracle ball to Samuel with the refs' help, and the IND by Frank Reich turtling in the last 10 mins of game to let a 9 pt lead slip away).   

6U at play - and yes, there's a free SGP for 0.4U which puts the above at +5600.

 

PLAYER PROPS

UK

No TAM props yet - and why I haven't played **Cade Otton props.  Won't lie, I'm very tempted on Walker rush props, even with Vita Vea there, but with the cold streak the last Sunday / MNF / TNF Week 10 slate, going to be a little smarter.   

Will take **Tyler Lockett O60.5 rec yds 2U & 90+ rec yds +310 FD  - agree with @NYRaider's reasoning.

 

EARLY

**Jerry Jeudy O4.5 catches +120 DK / O50.5 rec yds DK, 70+ rec yds +200 & 100+ +600 0.5U alt lines FD - TEN's stout run D (#1 run D by DVOA), and their weaker secondary play (especially in the slot), are why Jeudy makes a great play.  Yes, there's risk with Bad Russ or Hackopalypse game-calling, but the reality is with KJ Hamler out, Jeudy & Kendall Hinton are likely playing in the slot a ton (no props except TD on Hinton, sadly).

Greg Dulcich O39.5 rec yds (only 1U play) - TEN's S Byard is why I won't try and chase the 3.5U play (along with my cold streak).   The only alt line on B365 I'd consider if I had it would be the 5+ catch prop at +260 - because I don't see a lot of extra yards after the catch)

**Amari Cooper O63.5 rec yds 2U, 90+ +240 & 125 +800 0.5U FD - no Njoku, and the one cover CB the Phins have in Xavien Howard, is banged up and playing poorly - and Cooper has had success vs. him when he was in DAL.   

**Cole Kmet O2.5 catches +120, O22.5 rec yds, 40+ yards +300 & 60+ +750 FD 0.5U - besides SEA, DET is another D that's terrible vs. the TE.  Nothing wrong with Kmet's O24.5 rec yds props.

*Darrell Mooney O41.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ yards +320 - I know, he got 42 last week.  But this is DET's pass D, which is far worse than MIA's.   I also do believe DET will try and limit Fields' run game, but you open the pass coverage if you do that.   B365 bettors may want to consider the 5+ catch +220 and 6+ catch +580 alt line instead.

*Juju Smith-Schuster O5.5 catches +110 - with teams concentrating on trying to limit Travis Kelce, and playing deep coverage, Juju is the new safety blanket.   Happy to take a shot here. 

 

With a free 0.4U Score (get it refunded if I lose) parley bet - I'm going to play Lockett O60.5 / Jeudy O52.5 /  Kmet O22.5 / Mooney O43.5 (up now) / Cooper O63.5 rec yds / Juju O5.5 catches parley for +4500 as well.   So that's 18.5U at play.

 

LONGSHOT TD PLAYS

UK

Cade Otton +425 / +4500 2+  DK (0.8U / 0.2U) - FWIW, this isn't just overrreaction to last week - SEA's pass D is definitely a RB/TE funnel, both in catches/yards but also RZ work.   

Will Dissly +500 FD 0.5U - the overlooked guy in the RZ. 

 

EARLY

Kendall Hinton +1700 TD / +15000 2+ DK (0.9U/0.1U x2 - cashed out for 1.2U profit on 2nd play) - covered b4.   Hamler news is NOT official yet, so there's still time for all you DK bettors.

Tyrie Cleveland +2200 DK 0.5U, Montrell Washington +1200 0.5U  (now also down to +700 and +400 post Hamler news)- took this as insurance just in case. 

Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 DK (0.8U/0.2U) - has to be unchanged because of concerns with Adam Trautman.  FWIW if Jameis Winston was announced as started, I'd consider a 2U play - Jameis / Juwan connection is even better, given Winston's willingness to go downfield on seam routes.

Justin Watson +700 FD / +7000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) - the big body WR that benefits most in the RZ from the Hardman absence.

Jody Fortson +1500 / +15000 2+ DK (0.9U/0.1U) - how quickly ppl forget.  Easy play at those odds. 

 

LATE

Alec Pierce +650 / +7000 2+ TD's FD 0.9U/0.1U - with Mo Alie-Cox and Jelani Woods out, this makes Pierce the only big body WR in play besides Michael Pittman, who IMO is going to draw the most attention.    Gotta take a shot at those odds.

Kylen Granson +350 FD 0.5U - the only TE left standing.   Again would be 1U if we got word Matt Ryan is starting.

So that's 7.5U in TD plays for Sunday

____________________________________

 

* - playing them main and alt lines or using them in DFS

** - playing them alt lines AND playing in DFS

Edited November 13, 2022 by Broncofan
Fri-Sat additions updated

[Broncofan]

22 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Before TNF starts there’s one long shot TD play that’s absolutely worth diving into if you have DK - Kendall Hinton anytime TD +1700.  
 

Why?  Well it’s about to come out that KJ Hamler is inactive for Sunday - but hasn’t made the national news cycle.  The WR3-4 odds will all drop accordingly.    
 

Hinton actually is by far the most complete route runner out of the backups we have - and more likely to be 3rd WR in the RZ than Washington or Cleveland.  But he has the longest odds because he basically is inactive or barely plays if the top 3 are playing (other backups being far better for ST).    But if Hamler’s out he paradoxically becomes a better TD play than the other backups. 
 

I’ve put 2 1U plays hoping I’ll get a decent cash out option once news hits and his odds drop - to basically free roll this.  Either way Hinton should get a lot of snaps so +1700 is insane.  BOL! 
 

@N4L @SmittyBacall @Dash @NYRaider @thebestever6 @MikeT14 never any guarantees but imo this will be a +400 play once news comes out at +1700 - likely loses (even at +400 more lose than not lol) but the value here can’t be beat.    If you really want you can spread the risk with Washington +850 and Cleveland +2200 lol.  
 

 

I hope you guys took the bets - and split 2 - odds have dropped to +500 for Hinton now, and I'm already being offered a +110 cash out. 

I'm definitely going to cash out 1 of the 2 bets, this is exactly what I was hoping for - just going to see if the line drops any further, and the cashout increases. 

[Dash]

On 11/10/2022 at 9:33 AM, Dash said:

I got a SGP 10 leg 100% boost bet with DKs sports book. 

Under 41.5 total

Patterson 80+ rushing yards

Patterson 2 or more TDS

Under Walker 199.5 passing yards

Under Moore 74.5 receiving yards

Under London 49.5 receiving yards

Under Marshall 59.5 receiving yards

Under Pitts 54.5 receiving yards

Under Zaccheaus 39.5 receiving yards

Under Marriota 44.5 rushing yards

+70000 odds total

 

All bets hit except Patterson's because of course not hahaha 

[thebestever6]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I hope you guys took the bets - and split 2 - odds have dropped to +500 for Hinton now, and I'm already being offered a +110 cash out. 

I'm definitely going to cash out 1 of the 2 bets, this is exactly what I was hoping for - just going to see if the line drops any further, and the cashout increases. 

it didn't drop at all on bet365.

[Broncofan]

24 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

it didn't drop at all on bet365.

Well it wasn’t +1700 to begin with - why it was a DK play.  If it stays at +900 it’s still value but the +1700 was guaranteed to go down once Hamler news was official.  

Edited November 11, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Well I've never seen this before - the books have put out lines on every other TAM player except Otton.   LOL.  I agree with @NYRaider's reasoning and will add Tyler Lockett O60.5 rec yds & 90+ rec yds FD 0.5U alt line as well.

Oh well.... 3 more player props I'm going to definitely dive in on:

Amari Cooper O63.5 rec yds 2U, 90+ +260 & 125 +800 0.5U FD - no Njoku, and the one cover CB the Phins have in Xavien Howard, is banged up and playing poorly - and Cooper has had success vs. him when he was in DAL.   

Juju Smith Schuster O5.5 catches +110 - with teams concentrating on trying to limit Travis Kelce, and playing deep coverage, Juju is the new safety blanket.   Happy to take a shot here.   Can't get the alt lines on FD, but if you have B365, 7/8 catch props aren't crazy - but the one caveat is if it's a KC blowout, that could change things. 

Added one more TD prop....

Justin Watson +700 FD (now +550, still worth it) - ppl are all over Kadarius Toney with the news of Hardman being out - but Watson is the only big body besides MVS at WR, and frankly, MVS is on the outs snap/target wise.    Even at +550 it's worth a shot.   They play a lot more big body WR / 12 formation inside the RZ, so both Watson and Fortson are in play TD wise.

With a free 0.4U Score (get it refunded if I lose) parley bet - I'm going to play Lockett O60.5 / Jeudy O52.5 /  Kmet O22.5 / Mooney O43.5 (up now) / Cooper O63.5 rec yds / Juju O5.5 catches parley for +4500 as well.  BOL!

Edited November 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[agarcia34]

Vikings were at +3 pretty much all day. I check right now and bam back up to +6.5. 
 

Maybe Josh Allen is playing