Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

come on Hunter Henry 5 measly yards to win 7 units !

Edited December 13, 2022 by thebestever6

[adamq]

17 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

come on Hunter Henry 5 measly yards to win 7 units !

Worst loss of the year for me by far. Mac Jones is pathetic

[UncleAdamz]

.

Edited December 13, 2022 by UncleAdamz

[thebestever6]

2 minutes ago, adamq said:

Worst loss of the year for me by far. Mac Jones is pathetic

it's criminal he only had one catch in the second half.

[Broncofan]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Same 2 player props; adding 2 long shot TD props tonight for MNF.    Weird lines came out today and already getting steamed (TD props) but Henry’s alt line for DK came out and are crazy. 

PLAYER PROPS 

Hunter Henry o30.5 Rec yds 2U & 50+ Rec yds +285 & 75+ Rec yds +750 0.5U DK.   Ari 30th vs TE with 8 Rec / 64 yard per game average.    And no Jakobi Meyers which means more work for Henry (& Stevenson imo) - alt lines are WAY out of line.  Usually those would be +220 & +600 range.  

Rhamondre Stevenson o33.5 Rec yds 2U FD/DK - from before.  To show how skewed the Henry alt lines are - his are 50+ +120 & 75+ +280 (no thanks lol)        

TD PROPS 

AJ Green & Robbie Anderson +1100 & +1900 0.5U FD (now +1000 / +1200).  No Rondale Moore - these 2 split 3rd WR work.  Not surprised the odds getting steamed.  
 

BOL!

 

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I took Dortch O21.5 2U on DK, and 1U on 40+ for +400 (combined with ARI O13.5 pts, has to be a SGP to get the alt line on DK for non-mainstream players).

Last night, I went 1-1 with the player props (Allen hit alt lines, so +3.5U, but lost the 3.5U play on Mostert rush props, and no joy with Mckitty TD), so -0.5U.  

Tonight, I go 1-2 with player props, with Hunter Henry winning me 4.3U....and 5 yards short of the extra 4.3U win....way it goes.   Lose the other 2 player props (Dortch didn't see the field, again last-minute bets lose - which is OK, but really need to dial those back lol), so that's -0.7U, and 0-2 TD props (although Robbie Anderson and AJ Green were on the field for their RZ plays, and Robbie A got 2 chances to make last guy miss and score, so no complaints) - so total -1.7U tonight.

The -2.2U SNF/MNF could have been better, but TBH it's also bet control - Mostert & Dortch were last minute plays that I staked 6.5U on.   That's my call, but in reality, at best those should be solo 2U plays, if not 1U.   Oh well, live and learn.

Still an awesome week, so hoping to keep adding to the bankroll on TNF!

WEEK 14 FINAL

ATS/ ML & RACE

35-24-2 ATS, 11-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +30.2U. (+27.2U Week 14 to SNF, 5-0 ATS, 1-0 ML and 6-leg +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

98-97,  BALANCE  +40.5U (-2.7 WEEK 14 FINAL - Now 55-51 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-72, BALANCE +113.6U  (-1U Week 13 FINAL - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500)
 

TOTAL:  +184.3U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 FINAL- +23.5U).

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

BetMGM & Fanduel both refunding Kyler & Stevenson props.   Great PR move with the profit they’ve had anything that keeps bettors willing to play is smart business on their end.

 

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

37 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

BetMGM & Fanduel both refunding Kyler & Stevenson props.   Great PR move with the profit they’ve had anything that keeps bettors willing to play is smart business on their end.

 

 

Damn wish Bet365 did this lol

[adamq]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

<ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>,

Taking this to heart, now. I took the +280 I "knew" I'd win with Henry's 50+ yards prop and added a unit to it for my 4U bet on him getting 75+ yards.

 

Doesn't matter how confident you are, ish happens and it's called gambling for a reason! I could have done the normal 1U play on 50+ and then .5 or even 1U on the 75+ line and still been profitable for the night.. Instead I lost a bill because I got greedy when I saw a skewed number coupled with my favorite play of the night.

[JonStark]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BetMGM & Fanduel both refunding Kyler & Stevenson props.   Great PR move with the profit they’ve had anything that keeps bettors willing to play is smart business on their end.

 

 

Wtf draftkings!

[adamq]

TNF, 49ers will likely be looking to run, run, and run some more. No Deebo and Purdy is banged up.. Also it's a short week so there will be very little to no practice for this game... no practices when SF played NO either and the offense looked pretty flat.. playing in that stadium will make it even harder on Purdy, but at least the weather will be decent. 

Tyler Kroft +1000 is a longshot to consider.. he's taken over the TE2 role this year, don't be surprised to see him leak out on the goal line and catch a score

 

Haven't seen a whole lot of Seattle this season, especially lately, I don't know what to expect from their offense. With the injuries and prior mistakes we've seen from the SF secondary, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see DK catch a 40+ yarder for 6.. Mike Evans did it last week but the T got called for holding.

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, adamq said:

TNF, 49ers will likely be looking to run, run, and run some more. No Deebo and Purdy is banged up.. Also it's a short week so there will be very little to no practice for this game... no practices when SF played NO either and the offense looked pretty flat.. playing in that stadium will make it even harder on Purdy, but at least the weather will be decent. 

Tyler Kroft +1000 is a longshot to consider.. he's taken over the TE2 role this year, don't be surprised to see him leak out on the goal line and catch a score

 

Haven't seen a whole lot of Seattle this season, especially lately, I don't know what to expect from their offense. With the injuries and prior mistakes we've seen from the SF secondary, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see DK catch a 40+ yarder for 6.. Mike Evans did it last week but the T got called for holding.

Metcalf / Lockett props are worth considering.    The key is SF's pass rush is so good, it masks their coverage issues.    If (and it's a big IF) the SEA OL can give enough time, I think we'd see Lockett & Metcalf have success.   It's not an alt line play, though - because the total lack of any run game for SEA without Walker III really makes it easier for D's to play the pass - and it's no coincidence why Geno Smith's play has suffered as a result the last 2-3 weeks compared to his earlier success.
 

Agree CMC / Kittle yards (but can’t go crazy on Kittle since usage volatile).    SEA so vulnerable to TE & RB.   Kroft already up to +1100 so waiting may be the play.  

Edited December 14, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Agree CMC / Kittle yards (but can’t go crazy on Kittle since usage volatile).    SEA so vulnerable to TE & RB.   Kroft already up to +1100 so waiting may be the play.  

I really like the Kyle Juszczyck over 7.5 rec yards. It can cash in one play, and the niners actually target him on wheel routes out of the backfield A LOT against seattle, the only issue was that Jimmy could never hit this throw. Juice would be wide open and Jimmy would throw the ball out of bounds or over his head. 

Purdy has shown nice scrambling ability, when he moves he is looking to get the ball out of his hands. I expect the 49ers run game to be working well considering seattle's issues stopping the run. This combination could lead to 2-3 targets for the FB after he leaks out of the backfield on play action. 

I expect Jordan Mason to get more work this week. I don't see his rushing line posted anywhere, but I would expect it to be in the 30-40 range. I was a little surprised at how much work CMC got in the first half last week. Felt like he was on the field for every single play. Mason did not come in until later, and he seems to be our closer for the time being. Kyle likes to bring him in at the end of the game when the defense is tired. 

RB usage is hard to predict on TNF, but given that he is a 23 year old with fresh legs who has been producing very well, and the fact cmc may be needed more in the passing game with Deebo out, Mason could get more opportunities earlier in the game.

I also really like SF -3, so given the positive game script for this one, I like Mason to get enough opportunities to hit that figure, even if he only gets work in the fourth quarter. He is averaging over 5 ypc. 

[bucksavage1]

On 12/12/2022 at 8:32 PM, Broncofan said:

 

Last night, I went 1-1 with the player props (Allen hit alt lines, so +3.5U, but lost the 3.5U play on Mostert rush props, and no joy with Mckitty TD), so -0.5U.  

Tonight, I go 1-2 with player props, with Hunter Henry winning me 4.3U....and 5 yards short of the extra 4.3U win....way it goes.   Lose the other 2 player props (Dortch didn't see the field, again last-minute bets lose - which is OK, but really need to dial those back lol), so that's -0.7U, and 0-2 TD props (although Robbie Anderson and AJ Green were on the field for their RZ plays, and Robbie A got 2 chances to make last guy miss and score, so no complaints) - so total -1.7U tonight.

The -2.2U SNF/MNF could have been better, but TBH it's also bet control - Mostert & Dortch were last minute plays that I staked 6.5U on.   That's my call, but in reality, at best those should be solo 2U plays, if not 1U.   Oh well, live and learn.

Still an awesome week, so hoping to keep adding to the bankroll on TNF!

WEEK 14 FINAL

ATS/ ML & RACE

35-24-2 ATS, 11-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +30.2U. (+27.2U Week 14 to SNF, 5-0 ATS, 1-0 ML and 6-leg +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

98-97,  BALANCE  +40.5U (-2.7 WEEK 14 FINAL - Now 55-51 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-72, BALANCE +113.6U  (-1U Week 13 FINAL - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500)
 

TOTAL:  +184.3U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 FINAL- +23.5U).

 

+184 units is an incredible season. Keep up the good work

[Broncofan]

18 hours ago, N4L said:

I really like the Kyle Juszczyck over 7.5 rec yards. It can cash in one play, and the niners actually target him on wheel routes out of the backfield A LOT against seattle, the only issue was that Jimmy could never hit this throw. Juice would be wide open and Jimmy would throw the ball out of bounds or over his head. 

Purdy has shown nice scrambling ability, when he moves he is looking to get the ball out of his hands. I expect the 49ers run game to be working well considering seattle's issues stopping the run. This combination could lead to 2-3 targets for the FB after he leaks out of the backfield on play action. 

I expect Jordan Mason to get more work this week. I don't see his rushing line posted anywhere, but I would expect it to be in the 30-40 range. I was a little surprised at how much work CMC got in the first half last week. Felt like he was on the field for every single play. Mason did not come in until later, and he seems to be our closer for the time being. Kyle likes to bring him in at the end of the game when the defense is tired. 

RB usage is hard to predict on TNF, but given that he is a 23 year old with fresh legs who has been producing very well, and the fact cmc may be needed more in the passing game with Deebo out, Mason could get more opportunities earlier in the game.

I also really like SF -3, so given the positive game script for this one, I like Mason to get enough opportunities to hit that figure, even if he only gets work in the fourth quarter. He is averaging over 5 ypc. 

I'm on SF -3 as well - but also on Metcalf / Lockett props.    Anytime the SF pass rush doesn't get home, there's a chance for a chunk play.   I also see Geno making 3-4 TO worthy decisions, and SF getting 2 of them.   But they also can give up yards (much like they did with Tyreek Hill, and frankly, if Tua makes better middle area throws, Waddle gets his too.

I'm probably not going to go with heavy alt lines, other than CMC rushing (while going with his combo yard prop as the main play).   One thing I've really appreciated from Shanny is his willingness to spread it around -  Mason rush yds, Juice pass yds, and CMC combo yards are all strong plays.   And yes, I do think Kittle gets past the #. 

My card so far looks like:"

ATS/ML

SF -3 2U - the mismatch is just too great to overcome the SEA HFA.   IMO it would take a SEA +2 TO margin to win this game.   Other than Metcalf/Lockett vs. CB's, and Woolen vs. Ayiuk, the matchups swing to SF.   

 

PLAYER PROPS

CMC O117.5 combined yds 2U / 100+ rush yds +240 / 120+ +500 0.5U FD - I just have to back the main guy here vs. SEA's D.  If I think SF is winning, I gotta back this one.   I chose to do the O117.5 combined yds prop, though as the 2U play - mainly because with Purdy's injury, I have no idea whether they go pass CMC heavy, or just run him a lot (with Mason).  

George Kittle O41.5 rec yds 2U - with Aiyuk drawing Tariq Woolen's attention, I have to go a little Kittle here.    If SEA uses Woolen on Kittle (I haven't seen that yet, but just saying), then it's a problem.  But I have to believe the scheme / personnel issues that make SEA vulnerable to TE won't change here.

?Jordan Mason rush yds (not out yet)? - depends on the #

Tyler Lockett O60.5 rec yds - see reasoning in OP above, no run game, all pass for SEA.

DK Metcalf O63.5 rec yds - see reasoning in OP above, no run game, all pass for SEA

TD PROPS

Tyler Kroft +1400 0.5U FD - if I like the TE matchup, I have to take Kroft - ESP since Kittle could always be blocking/decoy in the RZ, and Kroft sneaks in for the TD.   If ppl are feeling a little frisky, they might want to wait, as the odds have gone from +1000 from the time @adamq mentioned this, to +1400 now.   

That's 10U, but spread out risk-wise, which seems wise given how prime time has gone lol.  BOL!

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Yeah I don't see any yards props for Mason, but +425 to score is pretty nice. Seattle knew Carolina would run, run, run and couldn't stop them.. Just pounding the rock with your 5 ypc bruiser in the RZ seems prudent