Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

couple of bets I like:

Raiders under 7.5 wins -

You might not be able to get this number and its heavily juiced to the under if you can, but the Raiders have a legitimate shot to have the first pick. The implosion potential is real. Jimmy G's ankle is ****ed, brian hoyer is their backup QB. Brian hoyer! Their defense will be bad (again). They play in a tough division.

Most importantly, I think there is a very real chance that the team quits on Josh McDaniels. I think last year, the players came into it with an open mind, and believed the bull**** he was selling them. Carr and Adams were reunited and the team was buying in to a degree. They were willing to give him a shot to prove the rumors about him weren't real, or that he had changed.

I think the players hated the way the team dealt with Carr, and I think this will bring up a lot of bad memories for people around the league about the debacle of JM in DEN. There are rumors that Darren Waller was traded because he didnt appreciate the way McDaniels broke the news about Waller getting married. He and his wife didnt make any public announcements, and then McDaniels told the world. Pretty sure Waller said something to him directly. Waller's wife basically came out and said this is why he was traded. It's absolutely wild.

So basically, I think the team will see JM for the two faced scumbag that he is, brian hoyer could be their QB, and I think its very possible they absolutely implode early in the season. Its about the only thing that could cause Mark Davis to fire him (and eat all of that dead money).

 

Over DET 9.5 wins -

This number is .5 higher than where I would like to see it, but there are a lot of reasons to like the lions this year.

Their schedule sets up nicely for them with the fact they play 11/17 games in a dome, including only one game in November and December outdoors (against CHI 12/10). Goff's road splits were attrocious last year, and I think he plays significantly better in a dome.

I like betting on teams where I can be pretty confident they will have an advantage on the OL or DL in basically every game they play. It really helps you feel confident that they can survive a multitude of different challenges that will come their way during a long season. Basically, they lions will know what to fall back on when the going gets tough.

Their offense has a lot going for it and Ben Johnson is the next big thing. Their defense took a step forward at the end of last year once they fired their DC, and they signed some vets to their secondary this offseason. Their offense will put teams in the meat grinder and that will really help out their defense as well.

 

Over 7.5 wins for CAR -

I played this one for 25% of the first two. I like it but I don't love it.

This one starts with their defense. They have some very talented players on that side of the ball. Evero was a perfect pairing for them. Their defense will keep them in a lot of games.

There is a lot to like about their coaching staff on offense, and while they are lacking a lot of playmakers on offense, their OL went from the worst in the league in 2021 to slightly above average last year, and its feasible we see some growth in that area again this year.

They play in a bad division and they don't have their first round pick next year, so I expect them to play really hard at the end of the year and get close to this number. It can take a few weeks to acclimate to a new coaching staff, and they weren't super talented to begin with, so that is why I like it but dont love it

 

Two more:

PHI to win the SB +700 -

Again, I like betting on teams that will have an advantage on OL or DL in basically every game they play. The eagles are the rare case where they should have both. That DL is absurd, their OL is going to remain top 5 for the next couple years, so they have a very safe floor when it comes to actually making the playoffs (which is always the first step to winning the SB). Losing steichen sucks, but they have absurd weapons on O still. Plus, they may have upgraded at DC. I still have major question marks about their LBs but with that DL I am slightly less concerned than otherwise.

SF to win the SB +800 -

The niners only questionmark is QB. The question isnt 'will they get production out of their QB' it's 'who will be qb' because the offense is built on the run game and finding open receivers for yac. Its perhaps the best set of weapons in the NFL. Kyle is kyle. It is as close to a QB proof offense as you can get in the nfl.

The defense was far and away the best defense in the NFL last year and basically returns everyone, plus Javon Hargraves. Defense can be volatile year to year, but there is just too much talent here to think they will be anything but top 5. FW54 is the unquestioned best ILB in football. Nick Bosa has a real shot to repeat as DPOY. Steve Wilks takes over for DeMeco Ryans and his attacking, aggressive style will mesh perfectly with the personnel there.

I feel very confident that these are the best two teams in the NFC by a wide margin. They were on a collision course last year and its a shame we had the NFCCG end up with one team without a QB. Football fans were robbed, but I anticipate these teams meeting in the playoffs again, and if either one makes the SB we are in a prime position to hedge considering how much +$ we are getting on these two bets.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 6/5/2023 at 2:29 PM, adamq said:

Bam Adebayo triple double +9500.... if Spo decides to pull out the Point Bam plays for game 3, this is great value. Small bet, just taking a stab with $15 to win almost $1,500

G5 was brutal, needed 2 more Jokic points to cash a +1800 and 4 more Murray points to cash +2000

[adamq]

3 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

G5 was brutal, needed 2 more Jokic points to cash a +1800 and 4 more Murray points to cash +2000

Brutal series overall. Jimmy completely **** the bed. Even game 5 they had in the palms of their hands.... until the scared Bam, trash Jimmy, and the Zeller minutes came in the 4th

 

Happy for the Nuggets, I like a lot of those players and they were by far the best team.

Boston losing, especially in that fashion, was really the peak of these playoffs anyway

[JaguarCrazy2832]

5 hours ago, adamq said:

Brutal series overall. Jimmy completely **** the bed. Even game 5 they had in the palms of their hands.... until the scared Bam, trash Jimmy, and the Zeller minutes came in the 4th

 

Happy for the Nuggets, I like a lot of those players and they were by far the best team.

Boston losing, especially in that fashion, was really the peak of these playoffs anyway

Its tough to hate on Jimmy so much, he clearly is hurt out there and without him going God-mode they dont even beat Milwaukee but i get it from a gambling perspective you expected him to perform 

In other sports, Florida losing to Vegas in 5 hurt. Needed the series to go long

[stl4life07]

Draftkings is +300 the Rams will go over 8.5 wins and +300 if they make the playoffs. $100 will get you $400 right now. Thats easy money. Definitely the Rams will win over 8.5 games and when they do they are making the playoffs at least getting the 7th seed. So again thats an easy $800 on a $200 bet. 

The NBA I took a beating on. It started with the Nuggets/Lakers series. All I asked for in Game 4 was LeBron to make one of the two shots he missed at the end that wouldve went over the total points of the game and still given the Lakers a chance to win. Then in the Finals in Game 3 I needed Gabe to hit one 3pt shot to hit and in Game 5 I needed Gordon to get 10pts and he only got me 4pts. So yeah I took at beating.

In NHL Game 2 I needed the total to stay at 6 and Vegas scored later in the 3rd period to push the total to 7 total. In Game 3 I needed Vegas to win and they lost bc the Panthers scored late in the 3rd period to send it to OT. I started to hedge my bet and pick the Panthers to win in OT but I stayed my course and ended up losing. 

I cant wait for NFL bc I believe I will do well. There is a bet on Draftkings on the Eagles getting at least one rushing td in every regular season game. I think thats easy money too. 

[stl4life07]

On 6/7/2023 at 1:08 AM, N4L said:

couple of bets I like:

Raiders under 7.5 wins -

You might not be able to get this number and its heavily juiced to the under if you can, but the Raiders have a legitimate shot to have the first pick. The implosion potential is real. Jimmy G's ankle is ****ed, brian hoyer is their backup QB. Brian hoyer! Their defense will be bad (again). They play in a tough division.

Most importantly, I think there is a very real chance that the team quits on Josh McDaniels. I think last year, the players came into it with an open mind, and believed the bull**** he was selling them. Carr and Adams were reunited and the team was buying in to a degree. They were willing to give him a shot to prove the rumors about him weren't real, or that he had changed.

I think the players hated the way the team dealt with Carr, and I think this will bring up a lot of bad memories for people around the league about the debacle of JM in DEN. There are rumors that Darren Waller was traded because he didnt appreciate the way McDaniels broke the news about Waller getting married. He and his wife didnt make any public announcements, and then McDaniels told the world. Pretty sure Waller said something to him directly. Waller's wife basically came out and said this is why he was traded. It's absolutely wild.

So basically, I think the team will see JM for the two faced scumbag that he is, brian hoyer could be their QB, and I think its very possible they absolutely implode early in the season. Its about the only thing that could cause Mark Davis to fire him (and eat all of that dead money).

 

Over DET 9.5 wins -

This number is .5 higher than where I would like to see it, but there are a lot of reasons to like the lions this year.

Their schedule sets up nicely for them with the fact they play 11/17 games in a dome, including only one game in November and December outdoors (against CHI 12/10). Goff's road splits were attrocious last year, and I think he plays significantly better in a dome.

I like betting on teams where I can be pretty confident they will have an advantage on the OL or DL in basically every game they play. It really helps you feel confident that they can survive a multitude of different challenges that will come their way during a long season. Basically, they lions will know what to fall back on when the going gets tough.

Their offense has a lot going for it and Ben Johnson is the next big thing. Their defense took a step forward at the end of last year once they fired their DC, and they signed some vets to their secondary this offseason. Their offense will put teams in the meat grinder and that will really help out their defense as well.

 

Over 7.5 wins for CAR -

I played this one for 25% of the first two. I like it but I don't love it.

This one starts with their defense. They have some very talented players on that side of the ball. Evero was a perfect pairing for them. Their defense will keep them in a lot of games.

There is a lot to like about their coaching staff on offense, and while they are lacking a lot of playmakers on offense, their OL went from the worst in the league in 2021 to slightly above average last year, and its feasible we see some growth in that area again this year.

They play in a bad division and they don't have their first round pick next year, so I expect them to play really hard at the end of the year and get close to this number. It can take a few weeks to acclimate to a new coaching staff, and they weren't super talented to begin with, so that is why I like it but dont love it

 

Two more:

PHI to win the SB +700 -

Again, I like betting on teams that will have an advantage on OL or DL in basically every game they play. The eagles are the rare case where they should have both. That DL is absurd, their OL is going to remain top 5 for the next couple years, so they have a very safe floor when it comes to actually making the playoffs (which is always the first step to winning the SB). Losing steichen sucks, but they have absurd weapons on O still. Plus, they may have upgraded at DC. I still have major question marks about their LBs but with that DL I am slightly less concerned than otherwise.

SF to win the SB +800 -

The niners only questionmark is QB. The question isnt 'will they get production out of their QB' it's 'who will be qb' because the offense is built on the run game and finding open receivers for yac. Its perhaps the best set of weapons in the NFL. Kyle is kyle. It is as close to a QB proof offense as you can get in the nfl.

The defense was far and away the best defense in the NFL last year and basically returns everyone, plus Javon Hargraves. Defense can be volatile year to year, but there is just too much talent here to think they will be anything but top 5. FW54 is the unquestioned best ILB in football. Nick Bosa has a real shot to repeat as DPOY. Steve Wilks takes over for DeMeco Ryans and his attacking, aggressive style will mesh perfectly with the personnel there.

I feel very confident that these are the best two teams in the NFC by a wide margin. They were on a collision course last year and its a shame we had the NFCCG end up with one team without a QB. Football fans were robbed, but I anticipate these teams meeting in the playoffs again, and if either one makes the SB we are in a prime position to hedge considering how much +$ we are getting on these two bets.

Eagles arent winning the Superbowl. Name me the last time a QB starting for the first time in the Superbowl and lost then came back the next season and won? Hurts wont be the first to do it in recent history. Its going to be someone from the AFC that wins the Superbowl. If anyone bet on the NFC to win the Superbowl its a waste of money. And I wouldnt even bet on the Chiefs to repeat. But IF I would make a bet it would be the Chiefs repeating before I bet on the Eagles and Niners winning the Superbowl this season.  

[N4L]

2 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Eagles arent winning the Superbowl. Name me the last time a QB starting for the first time in the Superbowl and lost then came back the next season and won? Hurts wont be the first to do it in recent history. Its going to be someone from the AFC that wins the Superbowl. If anyone bet on the NFC to win the Superbowl its a waste of money. And I wouldnt even bet on the Chiefs to repeat. But IF I would make a bet it would be the Chiefs repeating before I bet on the Eagles and Niners winning the Superbowl this season.  

You completely miss the point of the bet. 

Both of these bets are part of a larger strategy. They are at huge + money odds. Betting on the two best teams in the nfc to win the SB means I can hedge by betting on the AFC and lock in large profit. 

Go ahead and bet on KC. The AFC has a ton of great QBs. It's going to be hard to make the playoffs in the AFC, and the playoffs themselves will be a bloodbath. 

Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Lawrence, burrow, Rodgers are the best 7 QBs in the league and they are all in the AFC. Hurts is right there if he backs up last season with a similar year in 23, but he's in the nfc on a completely stacked team.

Did you miss the part about the eagles OL being top 5 and their DL being the best in the NFL by a wide margin? That is huge. They are going to have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball in basically every game they play. They have AJB, devonta smith, and goedert. They aren't a perfect team, I have questions about their back 7 on defense still, but it's very clear that the eagles and niners are head and shoulders above every other team in the nfc. 

This bet will make money if *either* of the two best teams in the nfc *make* the SB. They don't have to win the SB for me to profit. 

I'll ask you this, who is the third best team in the nfc?? The Seahawks? Dallas? The lions? The Packers?? There isn't even a consensus. It's probably Dallas, but we can rest assured Mike McCarthy isn't winning sh!t. 

[stl4life07]

4 hours ago, N4L said:

You completely miss the point of the bet. 

Both of these bets are part of a larger strategy. They are at huge + money odds. Betting on the two best teams in the nfc to win the SB means I can hedge by betting on the AFC and lock in large profit. 

Go ahead and bet on KC. The AFC has a ton of great QBs. It's going to be hard to make the playoffs in the AFC, and the playoffs themselves will be a bloodbath. 

Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Herbert, Lawrence, burrow, Rodgers are the best 7 QBs in the league and they are all in the AFC. Hurts is right there if he backs up last season with a similar year in 23, but he's in the nfc on a completely stacked team.

Did you miss the part about the eagles OL being top 5 and their DL being the best in the NFL by a wide margin? That is huge. They are going to have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball in basically every game they play. They have AJB, devonta smith, and goedert. They aren't a perfect team, I have questions about their back 7 on defense still, but it's very clear that the eagles and niners are head and shoulders above every other team in the nfc. 

This bet will make money if *either* of the two best teams in the nfc *make* the SB. They don't have to win the SB for me to profit. 

I'll ask you this, who is the third best team in the nfc?? The Seahawks? Dallas? The lions? The Packers?? There isn't even a consensus. It's probably Dallas, but we can rest assured Mike McCarthy isn't winning sh!t. 

You are right. I definitely see your point. I think though that the consensus is the Eagles or Niners out of the NFC when we know a surprise team will happen. Who saw Philly coming last season? Many thought it was either Brady and the Bucs, ARod and the Packers, the Niners, the Cowboys, and some even said the Rams to get back but not win it. Then the Eagles took off. So yeah I do see your point bc right now it’s hard to find that one team other than the Eagles and Niners to feel great about out of the NFC. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 6/7/2023 at 2:08 AM, N4L said:

couple of bets I like:

Raiders under 7.5 wins -

Over DET 9.5 wins -

Over 7.5 wins for CAR -

PHI to win the SB +700 -

SF to win the SB +800 

Love the SB plays, its not a lock but I feel like the NFC is a 2 horse race right now

I do think the Raiders will be bad this year regardless of Jimmy's health. 

My problem with betting the Lions O9.5 is betting them at their ceiling imo, trusting Goff that much is concerning but the division looks very ripe for the picking

I'm not sure Carolina has the weapons to compete for 8 wins this year but I am a Young believer

[JaguarCrazy2832]

9 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Draftkings is +300 the Rams will go over 8.5 wins and +300 if they make the playoffs. $100 will get you $400 right now. Thats easy money. Definitely the Rams will win over 8.5 games and when they do they are making the playoffs at least getting the 7th seed. So again thats an easy $800 on a $200 bet. 

Same odds to win 9 games as it is to make the playoffs? I think I'd rather just bet $200 on the 9 wins if you had to bet 1

[Rainmaker90]

I’m in on Philly for the SB too. 
I also have a small amount on Mia to win it . 
 

LAR over 8.5 wins? I find that highly highly doubtful 

[stl4life07]

10 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I’m in on Philly for the SB too. 
I also have a small amount on Mia to win it . 
 

LAR over 8.5 wins? I find that highly highly doubtful 

The way I see it as everything that possibly could go wrong last season did go wrong yet the Rams were two late blown leads against the Seahawks and one late blown lead against the Bucs from winning 8 games.

With relative health and I do think the Rams upgraded on the OL which will improve the offense as a whole I think the Rams will win 9 games. I think the defense won’t be good but it wasn’t good last season. They will get better over the course of the season and be decent enough but the offense will carry this team running the ball better and of course throwing. 

[SmittyBacall]

29 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

LAR over 8.5 wins? I find that highly highly doubtful 

Yeah, I’d much rather bet the opposite.

[Rainmaker90]

24 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

The way I see it as everything that possibly could go wrong last season did go wrong yet the Rams were two late blown leads against the Seahawks and one late blown lead against the Bucs from winning 8 games.

With relative health and I do think the Rams upgraded on the OL which will improve the offense as a whole I think the Rams will win 9 games. I think the defense won’t be good but it wasn’t good last season. They will get better over the course of the season and be decent enough but the offense will carry this team running the ball better and of course throwing. 

Meh, I don’t see it but maybe. 
 

As for over/under win totals I’m just staying with NE under 7.5

[N4L]

16 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Draftkings is +300 the Rams will go over 8.5 wins and +300 if they make the playoffs. $100 will get you $400 right now. Thats easy money. Definitely the Rams will win over 8.5 games and when they do they are making the playoffs at least getting the 7th seed. So again thats an easy $800 on a $200 bet.

Please elaborate. The rams roster is pretty bad outside of like 5-7 players. Stafford has injury issues. They won 5 games last year and did very little to improve the roster. They had to restructure Kupp to sign their rookie class. 

The rams are closer to picking #1 overall than they are to making the playoffs. Even vegas is telling you that by making those bets +300.