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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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3 DK player props for Sunday that I took right now: 

1.  Tyler Higbee o41.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U and 75+ +340 1U - no Kupp and SEA TE pass funnel D.    I have 5-65 as the projection so have to take an alt line shot too.   

2.  JK Dobbins o55.5U rush yds 2.2U to win 2U, 75+ rush yds +210, 100+ rush yds +650 0.5U - HOU  run D still their weakness and Dobbins the clear lead.   I have 70-75 yds projected so clear alt line play.  

3.  Calvin Ridley o57.5 Rec yds (already up to 60.5) 2.2U to win 2U - sadly alt lines weren’t out when main line came out - and now alt lines on DK of 75/100 aren’t as juicy (+140 & +360).  Will look to see if FD better when they release alt lines.   I have him projected at 6-75 so the 57.5 was so easy to take. 

So that’s 8.5U on 3 guys, to go with my 3U on dog ML plays and 5U F’ton 6 LONGSHOT TD plays.   Starting to fill up - have 2-3 more guys I want to see (1-2 with alt lines, 1 likely not).    I’ve put all my plays on the page 304 post for Sunday - 18.5U so far, probably end up around 22-24U (again if you’re starting out - go half-stake - and if you can’t get close to the same odds for TD or alt lines - pass altogether).   BOL! 
 

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Rainmaker90

Rainmaker90

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8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

3 DK player props for Sunday that I took right now: 

1.  Tyler Higbee o41.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U and 75+ +340 1U - no Kupp and SEA TE pass funnel D.    I have 5-65 as the projection so have to take an alt line shot too.   

2.  JK Dobbins o55.5U rush yds 2.2U to win 2U, 75+ rush yds +210, 100+ rush yds +650 0.5U - HOU  run D still their weakness and Dobbins the clear lead.   I have 70-75 yds projected so clear alt line play.  

3.  Calvin Ridley o57.5 Rec yds (already up to 60.5) 2.2U to win 2U - sadly alt lines weren’t out when main line came out - and now alt lines on DK of 75/100 aren’t as juicy (+140 & +360).  Will look to see if FD better when they release alt lines.   

So that’s 8.5U on 3 guys, to go with my 3U on dog ML plays and 5U F’ton 6 LONGSHOT TD plays.   Starting to fill up - have 2-3 more guys I want to see (1-2 with alt lines, 1 likely not).    I’ve put all my plays on the page 304 post for Sunday - 18.5U so far, probably end up around 22-24U (again if you’re starting out - go half-stake - and if you can’t get close to the same odds for TD or alt lines - pass altogether).   BOL! 
 

Love the Higbee one. I’m on that as well.

 

I put some on Lawrence over 1.5 TDs at -130

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adamq

adamq

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3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Now a huge PSA after week 1 - it pays to check boosts as often they’re not a good deal.    Once the books have the ppl in, the boosts offered aren’t close to good value - so don’t automatically assume boost offers are good.     But with pre-week 1 Super Boosts bets - the books are trying to give $ away to hook new bettors to keep playing all season long.   So keep checking this week (and be more than a little skeptical after the first 1-2 weeks lol) .   BOL

This guy used to post every single boost and tell you whether it was positive EV or not.. now you have to go through his website but the info is there, but I'm sure some other accounts are out there 

 

https://twitter.com/PromoGuyUS

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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9 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Not exactly sure how the Lions plan on using Gibbs but saw a game promo with him having 30+ receiving yards in each half at +1800. I just feel that value is wild and sprinkled a little on it. 

At +1800 you can justify a sprinkle, but keep in mind it's really multiplying the probabilities.  As I mentioned, I got 50 yds at +320 - under that type of thinking, I'm hoping for 25 yards per half.    But in reality, I need BOTH to happen, so presumably to get 25 yds per half, it's +320 x +320 = close to +1000.   At 30 yds, it might have been +400 x +400 - so that's's +1600.    It seems like +1800 is wildly inflated value, but in reality, it's a lot closer than it looks, and why books offer that.    You've basically turned a 1-game bet into 2 games, and with shorter time interval to get to projections that the books don't think will happen.    My median projection for Gibbs is 6/40+, so even my 50+ yard play isn't a 50-50 play (it's just even if I see it at 40-45 percent prob, I'm getting +320 for what should be +150).
 

Again, I thought 50 yds at +320 was value, so your play is fine to take, but it's also a much lower prob overall, so a sprinkle is def the right idea.   

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

What do you base these projections off of?

They're my own in the first 4 weeks. 

After the first 4 weeks, I look at target share (& routes run for RB/TE), snap share, matchup (why I love using DVOA vs. receiver & targets yielded - also recognizing how good said players are if it's TE/RB, for WR they rank the opponent WR1, WR2, WR3 so it's easier) & then factor in roster issues (guys being hurt), and a fudge factor for players ascending / descending in the team's pecking order.  The fudge factor is still my own stamp, but by Week 5 I'm using hard data to help reinforce what I'm seeing.  For Weeks 1-4 I’m blending in what I’m seeing vs last year’s data (as long as the team scheme / personnel align).  

With KC, their D is specifically a D that limits downfield plays, and allows a large target share to RB's.   Goff and Johnson very much are willing to use the RB.    The risk is we're going off last year - but Goff/OC Johnson are the same in DET, and the KC scheme / DC / personnel are largely unchanged (except Thornhill is gone at S).    And Gibbs is a rookie, albeit one with a very clear skillset and role.  But there is a LOT more projection than present-year data - but it also is why there's opportunity.    With Dobbins, I'm narrowing his usage to the last 2/3 weeks in 2022, when he was finally healthy and entering the 16-18 month recovery window from ACL surgery (Aug 2021).   

Ridley's ascendancy as the #1 target and ability to separate, his matchup for IND, and Higbee's facing a SEA TE pass funnel D without Kupp, provide the same type of positive projections.....vs the posted number.   With Dobbins, Vegas is using his entire aggregate use in 2022, where his health / ability to be truly 100 percent explosion wise explains why his usage was more split in 2022 than I expect this year, and this week.

I also look for situations where books contradict the lines they're posting.   For example, DK has Higbee as the #1 TE in DFS on Sunday's slate salary-wise - but they've posted 41.5 yds as the main projection?   Those 2 do NOT match.   It's not surprising that Higbee's line shot up to 46.5 yards overnight - and even then, I think it's still too low.  But that type of data helps me confirm that it's not just my evaluation that sees the gap.  Doesn't happen every time, but it's definitely helpful when the book's own data supports what you are seeing.

That's why you'll see well over half of my projections involve secondary market plays.   And why Higbee is the #1 confidence play with Kupp out (already a good play vs. SEA), and Dobbins / Ridley stood out to me right away.   The books are generally very sharp with WR1's, RB1's.... situations that change, that's where I look to find an edge (and why guys like Hodgins, Richie James in NYG, Shaheed & Juwan Johnson in NO, they were staples in the last month last year).   

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