Broncofan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) 2 more DK props out for Sun: 1. Juwan Johnson o26.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U - Carr loves the TE and he’s the top move TE in NO (Moreau is the inline guy). Carr also told his brother to draft him in fantasy lol. More importantly TEN has a top 3 run D but leaky secondary. With Kamara suspended I also think they use the TE more - I have him at 4-45 as my projection. There are no alt lines otherwise I’d have taken 50+ too. FYI if his TD prop gets to +350 range it’s value. He’s around +290 not quite enough value yet. 2. Rhamondre Stephenson o18.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U, 50+ +550 1U (+925 on B365) - phi pass D and pass rush again funnels RB work. Rhamondre not only gets 5+ targets a game his usage may be higher with WR’s hurt. I have 5/35 projected so I have to take 50+ at +550. Reminder that if you have FD and/or B365 - if the player props aren’t out yet and you don’t have DK make sure to check them (usually after TNF). Shop around - esp B365 yardage alt lines often can be better. Only 1 game left where I’m looking for spots to take. That’s now 22U on Sunday so won’t lie it’s a little scary for week 1 lol. My Week 1 Sunday list is updated on Page 304 in 1 place. Edited September 7, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: At +1800 you can justify a sprinkle, but keep in mind it's really multiplying the probabilities. As I mentioned, I got 50 yds at +320 - under that type of thinking, I'm hoping for 25 yards per half. But in reality, I need BOTH to happen, so presumably to get 25 yds per half, it's +320 x +320 = close to +1000. At 30 yds, it might have been +400 x +400 - so that's's +1600. It seems like +1800 is wildly inflated value, but in reality, it's a lot closer than it looks, and why books offer that. You've basically turned a 1-game bet into 2 games, and with shorter time interval to get to projections that the books don't think will happen. My median projection for Gibbs is 6/40+, so even my 50+ yard play isn't a 50-50 play (it's just even if I see it at 40-45 percent prob, I'm getting +320 for what should be +150). Again, I thought 50 yds at +320 was value, so your play is fine to take, but it's also a much lower prob overall, so a sprinkle is def the right idea. Yeah, definitely not throwing anywhere near 1u on it. I don't anticipate it hitting by any means but Gibbs is a hell of a pass catcher as we've seen and while we don't know if he'll be RB1 or a third down guy (we can have an educated assumption), I felt it was worth a .25u. I do like your breakdown as it adds good perspective on things. I don't normally like betting on halves (unless it's ML) but it's week 1.... let's gamble a little bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 BTW B365 has Stephenson 50+ at +925, and Juwan Johnson 50+ at +325, if you have it, worth the 1U alt lines, those are great value. I miss B365 lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 Is it smart to do Gibbs catch props on bet365 and his receiving yard milestones? I feel like it's extremely risky having 8 bets on one player. I can afford it but still risky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted September 7, 2023 Author Share Posted September 7, 2023 16 hours ago, NYRaider said: Ugh I need some godly bets this weekend. @BStanRamFan prop god hook me up brother Michael Thomas over 3.5 receptions +120 Kenneth Walker longesst rush over 15.5 yards (dont touch at 16.5) Calvin Ridley O57.5 receiving yards is gone, but some 60.5 still out there Nick CHubb over 73.5 rushing yards Im fading Kenny Pickett, under 213.5 passing yards 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: Is it smart to do Gibbs catch props on bet365 and his receiving yard milestones? I feel like it's extremely risky having 8 bets on one player. I can afford it but still risky. Honestly, I would do one or the other. I lean to yardage because Gibbs has home run speed. For possession guys, I do catches. I get the appeal, but the reality is we have no idea how Gibbs is going to be used. With yardage, I get 1 play that might pay it all off. With catches, you have to get volume. I love the catch alt line boost B365 offers, but I like to know the usage is there (why Kamara in his 1st half 2022 run was awesome - but if we did that in 2H, we would have paid dearly, too). Edited September 7, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101Raider Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) Not a weekly bet, but still maybe relevant… David Montgomery season TD total 6.5 (+1.05) on draft kings. I’m smashing the over so hard on this. Edited September 7, 2023 by 101Raider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 @Broncofan Thoughts on Khalil Herbert o8.5 receiving yards and milestone 25 at +450? His 56 yard screen is sticking out from the preseason, though from what I'm reading it appears rookie Roschon Johnson will be the passing game back. 8.5 just seems bizarrely low for a starting RB that should see 12-15 touches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, 101Raider said: Not a weekly bet, but still maybe relevant… David Montgomery season TD total 6.5 (+1.05) on draft kings. I’m smashing the over so hard on this. That's a joke. What did Jamaal Williams have last year? 15? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) 35 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: @Broncofan Thoughts on Khalil Herbert o8.5 receiving yards and milestone 25 at +450? His 56 yard screen is sticking out from the preseason, though from what I'm reading it appears rookie Roschon Johnson will be the passing game back. 8.5 just seems bizarrely low for a starting RB that should see 12-15 touches. He's so bad at pass blocking and he isn't a natural pass catcher. Yes he got the screen, but there's a real chance he gets no targets. Edited September 7, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: That's a joke. What did Jamaal Williams have last year? 15? Just keep in mind he literally got like 13-14 of those TD's from 2 yards or in. There's a ton of luck in that. I like the line, but most teams don't get downed at the 1-2 yard line like DET did last year. Amon-Ra St-Brown got tackled at the 1 or 2 yard line I think 5x last year (why I'm heavy on his TD prop). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) If you have B365 this an auto bet. Likely limited but it’s pretty much free $. Edited September 7, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 2 hours ago, BStanRamFan said: Michael Thomas over 3.5 receptions +120 Kenneth Walker longesst rush over 15.5 yards (dont touch at 16.5) Calvin Ridley O57.5 receiving yards is gone, but some 60.5 still out there Nick CHubb over 73.5 rushing yards Im fading Kenny Pickett, under 213.5 passing yards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 There's a Kay Adams boost of Mahomes for 250 pass yards and 1 TD at +100 on FD. Seems too easy but I put 2u on it. Odds are it will not hit now but Patrick is usually pretty lights out on opening night 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 7, 2023 Share Posted September 7, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: There's a Kay Adams boost of Mahomes for 250 pass yards and 1 TD at +100 on FD. Seems too easy but I put 2u on it. Odds are it will not hit now but Patrick is usually pretty lights out on opening night The correlation there is nuts. Auto max bet (usually 1-2U limits by FD depending on how much you play there). Edited September 7, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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