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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Anyone else feeling the ‘aints / ‘thers over 39.5 tonight?

I am in on NO tt o 20.5 but I wouldn't do the game total over personally.. Saints defense is pretty darn good and against a rookie QB

Edited by adamq
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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, N4L said:

I LOVE the Cleveland ML tonight. I love their defense. I don't think Pittsburg does much on offense in this game. I think I might take the under 18.5 for Pittsburgh's team total. I honestly think Cleveland might shut them out.

Ngl, I love Pittsburgh tonight. 

Give me home underdogs on primetime all day. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/17/2023 at 8:23 PM, Broncofan said:

 

What a day for props and longshots.....to be transparent, I got my longshots mixed up, and Johnson was "only" a +7500 0.1U (so 7.5U reward) on DK for 2+ TD's, not +15000 2+ (B365 had that).     Still, a pretty amazing day.

WEEK 2 TO SNF
 

ATS/ML - 3-4, -1U (- 1-3, -2U today) - I was hoping JAX would get up 10 pts, and I'd cash that +money, but wasn't meant to be.   CIN was a bad call, credit to @SmittyBacall for pointing it out.   GB was a pretty bad beat, wish I had used my DK 10+ auto-win bonus there, oh well.   Glad CIN wasn't the only leg that killed my free 0.4U parley, I'd have been really upset if that happened.

PLAYER PROPS -  13-11, +4.5U (6-1, +12.7U today) - now THAT's more like it.   And why the alt lines are so good.  I "only" hit 1 alt line both ways - but it was the biggest payout with Nico Collins alone going +9.2U out of the 12.7U prop profit today.     And frankly got a little unlucky with Dotson (Howell trailing at halftime somehow threw the ball NINE times in the 2H).

LONGSHOT TD - 5-15, +19.7U (2-5, +12.4U today with 2+TD longshot coming in) - WK1 - Shaheed +600, Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; WK2 Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+) - what a late game surge, after 3 very good plays in the early slate all had EZ chances, but missed (Parkinson stopped at the 2 with 1 guy to beat, Parham got 2 targets again, and Roschon Johnson in a clear timeshare and officially the RB2 - so say goodbye to those odds 😪).   But a late TD by Isaiah Hodgins +500 and then Brandon Johnson TD +950 & +7500 2+ with the Hail Mary giving me a free 7.5U extra for a +12.4U TD day, well I'll take it each time. 

TOTAL - +23.2U (WK1 - +3.0U; WK2 to SNF - +20.2U) - total stake 86U so far

 

On 9/17/2023 at 8:36 PM, Broncofan said:

Updated MNF card so it's easier to track:

WEEK 2 MNF

ATS/ML (2-3, -0.9U)

CLE ML -125 1.25U (now -135) - taking the DK 7 pt lead auto-win offer.   

NO -3 - just don't think CAR with their OL issues and WR corps still hurting, worth taking.

PLAYER PROPS

(Posted Friday) Rasheed Shaheed O36.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +180 & 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - Posting this now so ppl can take advantage of what I think will be a rising line.   Without Jaycee Horn, CAR's pass D takes a fairly big hit.   Don't let the low pass yard totals fool you, ATL plays a mega run-first O, NO showed they're willing to go pass-heavy with their OL issues and talent - Shaheed is clearly their 2nd best WR (sorry Mike Thomas).    May only take 1 play to get the main line.  My #3 confidence play for the week. 

Juwan Johnson O23.5 rec yds 2U DK, 50+ ??? 1U DK or FD (now +240 on FD) - the line on FD is crazy, it's 29.5U.  That shows you the value in 23.5.   Waiting for DK to offer an alt line and then I'll dive for 1U.   CAR had a very good TE D last year, but they're hurting, so I'm willing to go 24+ & 50+ (but 75+ is a bridge too far).

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 0.8U / 0.2U FD - you know the drill, if it's +400 it's an auto-bet for me.   CAR's got a good TE D, but that's probably why the line is this high on FD.  Because it's FD you may want to wait until 1 hr before game time and see if it goes up any further.

David Bell (+2000/+25000 2+ DK), Cedric Tillman (+1400 / +2000 2+ DK & Harrison Bryant (+1200 / +20000 2+ ); all 3 for 0.4U/0.1U DK plays - if Amari Cooper is out, that opens up 3rd WR and 12 formation passing for David Bell & Cedric Tillman & RZ 12 formation preference for Harrison Bryant; at those odds I'll take all 3 for 0.4U/0.1U DK plays.   FD has close to same odds, but a little less (and no 2-TD odds on FD).    Check B365 as well.

 

 

That's 11U for 2 games, so I'm stopping there.   Let's finish a great week 2 strong with Rhamondre Stevenson rec yds tonight, and have a great MNF doubleheader with the card above!  BOL!

A subpar finish to a great Week 2 (pretty much all Sunday lol)

SNF Rhamondre Stevenson - baffling that BB didn't get him involved, but way it goes -3U

CLE ML (PIT 2 DST TD's and Chubb injury the diff, can't be mad at that, just part of the game) - loses 1U

NO -3 push (that's bit rough, given the prevent D NO used is why CAR came back from 11 down, but again that's the game)

Rasheed Shaheed - made us sweat, but hit the 2U main and 1U 50+ +180, for a nice 3.3U win

Juwan Johnson - had targets taken away by Taysom Hill (3 targets, 0 catches)...ugh.   That's 3x vs. CAR, the NO pass game outside of Olave / Shaheed (and MT short area only) is pretty much tough to rely on.  The only silver lining is Juwan is consistently out there in RZ & GL pass formation, his odds should start creeping up over +400, which are playable.  -3U -

No longshot TD props, 0-4, -2.5U - Johnson had plenty of snaps, and Bryant had his looks, but nothing too close.  Way it goes. 

So a -3.2U night - TBH, until Shaheed hit, I was looking at a possible reverse sweep, so lick my wounds and bounce back for Wk3!

 

 

WEEK 2 FINAL

ATS/ML - 2-4-1, -2U total

PLAYER PROPS - 14-13, +1.8U 

LONGSHOT TD - 5-19, +17.5U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+)

TOTAL - +17.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; 97U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
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Wentz you dog you

Wentz you dog you

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said:

Two early ones.

 

Vegas +1 vs Pitt.

Pitt isn’t very good. They played on Monday. Won a big game vs a division rival, now traveling across country. I’ll take Vegas.

 

Houston +8.5 at Jacksonville

 

Just a lot of points to give to a division rival. I’m not big into Jax’s offense 

With you... LOVE LOVE Vegas at home vs PIT and LV should have Adams & Meyers.

Not with you on HOU - They stink pretty bad. If I had to pick another game, it would probably be NOLA vs GB. I don't think GB will be able to get open against NOLA's sticky man-to-man defense

Edited by Wentz you dog you
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

TNF Week 3 

1.  Isaiah Hodgins +600 / +8000 (immediately down to +6000 2 mins later) 0.4U / 0.1U DK - gets a lot of RZ snaps and as you all saw Jones trusts him.  

2.   Parris Campbell +600 / +7500 0.4U / 0.1U DK.     Campbell also has had 2 RZ targets and plays almost all the RZ snaps. 

3.  Lawrence Cager +3000 / +25000 2+ 0.25U / 0.05U - DK didn’t post a 2-TD prop which is probably for the best lol.  EDIT:  I took 0.4U / 0.1U but I can't really in good conscience recommend it.  I'll count the 0.5U in my YTD totals, but I'm posting what I think is a more responsible play lol, as Cager will be active either way, and it's nowhere near as likely as Hodgins/Campbell (which are also still unlikely, but the payoff is handsome for the prob IMO).

4.  Ronnie Bell +2000 / +15000 2+ Bodog/Bovada 0.25U / 0.05U Bodog/Bovada - this line is going to drop quickly.   News that Brandon Aiyuk has an AC sprain, so short week, he may sit.  Be careful, because like Cager, he'll be active no matter if Aiyuk plays or sits. 

5. Ray-Ray Mcleod +1100 / +10000 2+ DK 0.3U / 0.1U - the other guy, and I trust @N4L's knowledge of his team.    Just a sprinkle to enjoy the game on both sides lol.

Hodgins is +390 on FD and Campbell is +470 and Cager +1400 so had to take stabs.  Cager is a gamble on Waller’s thigh and short week he looked gimpy at end of game.

Both Campbell & Hodgins get consistent targets and both get RZ trust (Campbell 3 RZ / Hodgins 2 RZ targets as the only WR RZ targets this year).  Hodgins showed similar usage 2H after being named starter while Campbell has the valuable slot spot so at +600 worth the 0.4U play.  The fear that NYG may not even get to the RZ is real but also why we’re getting such inflated odds.  

No yardage props out but honestly don’t know I’ll take many.   That's 2U in total risk, seems like enough lol.    It’s such a scary game to cap lol.

 

BOL! 

Edited by Broncofan
Ronnie Bell added, recommendation for Cager adjusted
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Rainmaker90

Rainmaker90

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wentz you dog you said:

With you... LOVE LOVE Vegas at home vs PIT and LV should have Adams & Meyers.

Not with you on HOU - They stink pretty bad. If I had to pick another game, it would probably be NOLA vs GB. I don't think GB will be able to get open against NOLA's sticky man-to-man defense

I don’t have a great feel for NO vs GB. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

on mine it had it at +25000 lmao I threw a buck on it so you're telling me there's a chance.

DK added it.  I’ll put 0.05U more on both.  It’s a pure punt that Waller was gimpy on last drive.  Probably a donation but if he’s out or limited then that’s crazy # for a guy who’d take the move TE role.  

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Wentz you dog you

Wentz you dog you

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

TNF Week 3 

1.  Isaiah Hodgins +600 / +8000 (immediately down to +6000 2 mins later) 0.4U / 0.1U DK - gets a lot of RZ snaps and as you all saw Jones trusts him.  

2.   Parris Campbell +600 / +7500 0.4U / 0.1U DK.     Campbell also has had 2 RZ targets and plays almost all the RZ snaps. 

3.  Lawrence Cager +2200 / +25000 2+ 0.35U / 0.05U - DK didn’t post a 2-TD prop which is probably for the best lol. 

Hodgins is +390 on FD and Campbell is +470 and Cager +1400 so had to take stabs.  Cager is a gamble on Waller’s thigh and short week he looked gimpy at end of game.

Both Campbell & Hodgins get consistent targets and both get RZ trust (Campbell 3 RZ / Hodgins 2 RZ targets as the only WR RZ targets this year).  Hodgins showed similar usage 2H after being named starter while Campbell has the valuable slot spot so at +600 worth the 0.4U play.  The fear that NYG may not even get to the RZ is real but also why we’re getting such inflated odds.  

No yardage props out but honestly don’t know I’ll take many.    It’s such a scary game to cap lol.

 

BOL! 

Dang Hodgins and Campbell for me are +450

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