Weekly Bets Thread

[BobbyPhil1781]

6 minutes ago, adamq said:

My heart was racing, not because of the TD but that flag 🤣

Was worried about that foot coming down out as well

[Broncofan]

NGL if Bell scores a 2nd TD tonight I'm probably going streaking.   If you guys don't hear from me the neighbors probably called the cops.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

NGL if Bell scores a 2nd TD tonight I'm probably going streaking.   If you guys don't hear from me the neighbors probably called the cops.

You already would've made bail money and could still come out on top! Hope it happens lol

[stl4life07]

I hope people had CMC scoring a td in their parlay. He is a td maker. Now 12th straight game with a td. I just need the Niners to score 11 more points, Purdy to pass for 43 more yards, CMC to get 9 more rushing yards, and Deebo to get 2 more receiving yards and the Niners to obviously win the game and Ill hit on both my parlays tonight. 

[BobbyPhil1781]

53 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

I hope people had CMC scoring a td in their parlay. He is a td maker. Now 12th straight game with a td. I just need the Niners to score 11 more points, Purdy to pass for 43 more yards, CMC to get 9 more rushing yards, and Deebo to get 2 more receiving yards and the Niners to obviously win the game and Ill hit on both my parlays tonight. 

I'm never going to take an ATD at negative odds. I don't care how often they score lol

Edited September 22, 2023 by BobbyPhil1781

[stl4life07]

10 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I'm never going to take an ATD at negative odds. I don't care how often they score lol

Not even if its in a parlay? I can see if its a straight parlay then yeah the odds isnt worth it for CMC but if its in a parlay then that has to be different imo. 

[stl4life07]

I need the Niners to score a td. It would be frustrating if they cant get to over 27.5 pts especially knowing they have been in the redzone 5 times and only have 23pts. 

[stl4life07]

Looks like Im going to hit on both my parlays. Unless the Giants can pull off a miracle and win. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Not even if its in a parlay? I can see if its a straight parlay then yeah the odds isnt worth it for CMC but if its in a parlay then that has to be different imo. 

The payout just isn't worth it.   It's like taking a massive favorite in boxing/MMA (there, it's the only choice though because you aren't going to lay down -500 if the line's too wide).   The risk you lose doesn't make the payout worth it.   I get CMC has been great, but once they start offering you -300 for a TD, that's basically a 25% boost, when even just injury risk alone says it's not really worth it.

It's why I don't play TD's unless it's +400 (or a boost of something like +100 goes up to +200, like they did last year in week 2 with Nick Chubb, and week 1 with Stefon Diggs....back Chubb he had 2 functional knees).      I'm calculating what I think the odds are, but there's not enough certainly present to justify "only" a 25-30 percent boost for TD's.   

Edited September 22, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Only 1 prop hit, but if it was going to hit, Bell +2000 was a great one.    Still, it was small stakes, and Parris getting 6 catches but 24 yards loses 2U, which turns my profit to +2.6U (instead of 5.4U had Parris hit).   Still, I'll take it - otherwise, would have been a goose egg and -4U, so can't argue that at all.  

On to Sunday's slate!

[stl4life07]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The payout just isn't worth it.   It's like taking a massive favorite in boxing/MMA (there, it's the only choice though because you aren't going to lay down -500 if the line's too wide).   The risk you lose doesn't make the payout worth it.   I get CMC has been great, but once they start offering you -300 for a TD, that's basically a 25% boost, when even just injury risk alone says it's not really worth it.

It's why I don't play TD's unless it's +400 (or a boost of something like +100 goes up to +200, like they did last year in week 2 with Nick Chubb, and week 1 with Stefon Diggs....back when he had 2 functional knees).      I'm calculating what I think the odds are, but there's not enough certainly present to justify "only" a 25-30 percent boost for TD's.   

I get what you are saying. Funny you mentioned Chubb bc last week his anytime TD was plus money and I almost bet it but didn’t. Obviously he got hurt and didn’t get that TD unfortunately for those who did bet.

[N4L]

On 9/20/2023 at 10:25 PM, N4L said:

TNF - One thing to note is that it is super smoky here from wildfires very far north. I haven't gone outside or opened my windows in 2 days. Not good. I am not sure how this will affect the game but there is potential for it to slow things down a bit. There is a chance it will clear up if the wind shifts, but as of right now that does not look promising. 

SF team total over 27.5 - the giants defense has not played well. The niners offense is a buzz saw. They scored 20 points in the first quarter against the steelers and scored 30 last week after leaving a decent amount of points on the field. Large spread means the value isnt fantastic here, but I think this is a feasible number considering the cardinals scored 28 last week in the first 3 quarters. Most importantly, Kyle seems to genuinely trust Purdy, and it has made him significantly more aggressive with his play calling. They need 4 TDs and I think Kyle will look to be aggressive early to try and put the game out of reach. If there was a way to bet their first half team total, I would. 

Deebo over 55 rec yards, all the way up to 105 - He was more heavily featured last week after Aiyuk got banged up. He is yet to really break a big play. I think this is the week. With aiyuk banged up, cmc getting absurd usage a few days ago, with Kittle playing through a groin injury, I think Deebo will be the focal point of the offense. He is the type of player that keeps knocking on the door and eventually breaks it down. He could easily get 12 targets this week. I love this one. 

Cmc over 83 rush yards - 10 point home favorite. RB who gets nearly 100% of the touches and has the ability to break big runs. It just makes sense and I love betting the over on the rushing total of heavy favorites. 

Daniel Jones over 41 rush yards - niners have struggled with QBs rushing in the past. The pass rush is super aggressive and the LBs are used to cover the deep part of the field. The niners will have the lead so I think the giants will drop back to pass a lot and that will give him opportunities to scramble

49ers to score on their first drive, yes +111 - They have one of the most efficient offenses in the league and they have scored TDs on their first drive in both games this year. Purdy seems to come ready to play and does not need time to "settle in". That is actually one of the things I like most about him, he comes ready to play with a laser focus. 

 

I did a correlated parlay of the niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total, and the cmc rushing yards over at +200. I also did one with Elijah mitchell over 31 rush yards, niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total for +250 or something like that. I risked 25% on the Elijah Mitchell one. A lot of smart niners fans that I trust seem to think he should get some (10+) carries this week. I remain skeptical but the reasoning is sound, so we will make that bet. I dont think he gets a lot of carries if the niners [arent winning]

All of these hit except the DJ rushing prop lol got lucky with the CMC one tbh but we absolutely smashed the deebo props, even the Deebo longest reception prop. I really liked that one. I will look at this prop every week. Could be a consistent winner for us. 

[SmittyBacall]

5 hours ago, N4L said:

All of these hit except the DJ rushing prop lol got lucky with the CMC one tbh but we absolutely smashed the deebo props, even the Deebo longest reception prop. I really liked that one. I will look at this prop every week. Could be a consistent winner for us. 

Felt like SF placed emphasis on gameplanning Danny’s legs.

[Broncofan]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK so I'm more than a little terrified, because I've isolated 9 player props for Sunday's card.  GULP, but gotta trust the evals...

 

WEEK 3 SUNDAY CARD (2-4-1, -2U)

 

ATS/ML (WEEK 3 to TNF - 2-4-1, -1.9U)

LAC ML pick 'em - technically, LAC is a 1-pt dog, but it's really a pick 'em.   Fun fact, 0-2 ATS teams are something like 60-70 percent winners ATS in week 3.   But more in this situation, I'm all over Herbert (although HC Staley really sucks at D, which is supposed to be his thing, and is losing his aggression - double whammy bad combo).   Still, Kellen Moore's vertical scheme is a massive problem for MIN.   

NO ML +110 - there's one way NO loses (besides losing the TO game, always the X factor),  and that's HC Dennis Allen & Pete Carmichael deciding Taysom Hill should be the focus (runs AND pass catching last week....aggravating).   Open up the pass O, use Kendre Miller, and the NO D will control GB's O (although having Christian Watson will help Jordan Love, who's really making progress, a lot).  Bad coaching could backfire here for sure (as GB has the clear edge here), but  I think the wrong team's favored here, so I'll take plus money here.  

WAS +7 0.5U, ML +240 0.5U (DK auto-win 10 pt lead) - I know DEN's D sucks - but ppl overlook that week 1 was Howell's debut in Bienemy's new scheme, and an early massive cheap shot hit on him, plus a lot of rain in the 2H, contracted the game plan vs.  ARI.   So everyone thinks that WAS is a massive dog to BUF and DEN was a bad showing, when in reality the WAS O is just learning the scheme and getting going.  On the D side, Chase Young's return and the new DB's drafted have made a huge impact (yes they gave up the big plays, so that's an Achilles to exploit).   The reality is that BUF should be favored, but I think this stays within 7 pts.  I can't resist splitting this into a +240 ML for 0.5U with DK's 10-pt auto-payout, too.   

So that's 3U for ATS/ML...

 

PLAYER PROPS (WEEK 3 to TNF:  14-14, -0.2U)

EARLY

Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U / 75+ +240 1U / 100+ +550 0.5U DK - already covered before

Raheem Mostert O61.5 rush yds 2U & 100+ 500+ 1U DK - already covered before....please don't get hurt Raheem.

Rasheed Shaheed O40.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +550 DK 1U, 100+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK - by now, you should know the drill. Shaheed is an ascendant talent - his only reason the totals are so low is because he's not used enough.    OC Pete Carmichael and HC Dennis Allen should be roasted for using Taysom Hill in pass catching over Shaheed & Juwan Johnson.   Still, the GB D is focused on Chris Olave, and that means more room for Shaheed.  As we saw last week, sometimes it's just 1 play that gets there.    Until they use him more, though, I can only put the main line and 1 alt line for now.   EDIT:  With the small win on TNF, feel good enough to add the 2nd alt line, YOLO...

Mike Williams O61.5 rec yds 2U, 90+ rec yds +300 1U, 125+ rec yds +850 0.5U FD - MIN's secondary is their weakness (Flores is so aggressive it masks it to an extent), and chunk plays are how O's beat them.  That's Mike Williams.  Won't lie, much like Mostert and my late game special, the injury-prone risk is what terrifies me this week, but this is the bright neon-light play at only 62+ yds (Keenan Allen is already past 75).   How crazy is the game line projected to be? Well, DK didn't put out an alt line, only FD has so far.  So I'll take the FD setup & hold my breath DK doesn't crush it. 

Zay Flowers O48.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +300, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - IND secondary matchup is a beauty (see HOU pass O, Nico Collins), and Flowers is the undisputed alpha in this group.   Mark Andrews is the one risk, but IND's run D is very good, so it sets up a pass funnel situation.  The 100+ is a reach, but the value is good there (I'm sure B365 will be better, if you have it, check it out)

Rhamondre Stevenson O20.5 rec yds, 50+ rec yds +500 1U DK - OK, BB & Bill O'Brien, you're facing a top 10 (and really, likely top 5 if the O didn't keep stalling and getting the D tired) pass D, and the 30th pass D by DVOA vs. RB's.  This should be EASY - you use Rhamondre in the pass game.    I won't lie, I had so much confidence they'd do the same vs MIA (not as leaky vs RB as NYJ, but a good matchup nonetheless), it worries me here.   Still, DAL was smart enough to go to Pollard in the pass game, I have to believe BOB (great OC, terrible HC) & BB will remedy that this week.   If B365 had 75+ yard props (DK doesn't), I'd play it (remember, I'm restricted there - dammit). 

LATE

Kenneth Walker O61.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ +400 1U, 125+ +1100 0.5U DK - scary, scary, scary, because like Mostert he's so injury-prone.  But this is a home matchup, vs a CAR D that's struggling to stop the run, and lost their anchor Shaq Thompson.   If you're on B365 the 75/100 line is probably worth taking by itself, as the 125+ isn't likely to hit, but the odds are so good (and likely better on B365 too). 

DK gave me a 0.4U free bet, so I'm putting all 7 player props for +7300.  Besides being free (and less than 5 percent of my stake) - if the first 6 prop hit in the early slate, I can hedge an under on the Walker, who's playing late (whose yardage line is also likely to only go up from here to Sunday, and offer a middle opportunity).

I have 2 more player props targeted, but they won't come out until later on, as they are in theory secondary players (you know who 1 of them is lol) - unclear if they'll come out with alt lines (which is a bummer, I think both will smash whatever number is out there).   9 player props is kinda nuts, because I'm already at 23U for 7 players, but gotta trust the evals (the injury risk, while never predictable overall, is higher this week, so just crossing fingers the guys stay healthy, and let the chips fall where they may here).

 

 

LONGSHOT TD (5-19, +17.5U)

EARLY

Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +6500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) DK - covered before.   Already down to low +400 range.

Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) DK - if it's +400 or better, auto-bet, and pray OC Carmichael & HC Allen actually watch the film and realize Shaheed & JJ need more targets overall and in the RZ for JJ.

Emanuel Wilson +1500 / +17500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - with news Aaron Jones missed practice again today, I think it's at least 50-50 he misses another game.   Now, NO is a terrible matchup, but again, it's the odds.   AJ Dillon looked again like he was in quicksand.    Fans and online reporters are calling for more PT.   He did get his feet wet with 3 carries and about 10 snaps - I think he gets a bigger snap share, so again, it's about the odds.   This is something I'd have lined at about +800 to +1000, so worth a half-stake stab.

Xavier Hutchinson +2200 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - he's #4 on the depth chart behind our week 2 hero Nico Collins, Robert Woods and Tank Dell.   But he's also a big body WR, who fits more of what Noah Brown offered, when he went to the IR.   Got a bump in his snaps, and in practices you see him working with Stroud.  Total dart throw, but there's the reasoning.   I don't mind the fact HOU is likely in catchup mode, too - garbage time could get him more snaps, so at that number (I'd have set the line at +1000), I have to take the half-stake stab.

***Cole Turner - BEST LONGSHOT VALUE OF YEAR SO FAR (NO GUARANTEES THOUGH STILL ONLY +300 real odds IMO - but look at these book odds) +1100 / +12500 2+ B365; +1200 / +15000 2+ TD 1.2U / 0.3U to play*** - Logan Thomas is in concussion protocol, and that hit was nasty.   I'd be shocked if he's not out thiw week.  Cole Turner is almost certainly the guy who steps in as the receiver (John Bates is the blocking TE, but he's getting +500 on DK/FD <BTW, Bates is +1800/+2500 2+ on B365, so it's not crazy to go 0.25U/0.05U at that price - but Turner's the guy who does 85+ percent of the pass-catching work>), and he's a talented receiver.   I'm going to recommend 0.8U/0.2U above but I'll go YOLO myself and take 1.2U/0.3U with Kelly-betting principles.

 

So far we're at 4U in TD props, with late game offering a few targets, but book lines aren't out for now.

 

OK so that's 33U in plays out so far, and unless the books don't offer any lines, I'll likely have 4-6U more on 2 more player props.    Won't lie, I really try to stick to the 25U rule for Sunday games, but early weeks are where we get lines that haven't caught up yet to player emergence, and I definitely think that's happened with Collins, Shaheed & Flowers, while Mostert, M-Williams, Rhamondre & K-Walker's matchups and set up project them well past the prop, so gotta take the alt lines.   BOL!

 

 

 

WEEK 3 to TNF

ATS/ML - 2-4-1, -2U total

PLAYER PROPS - 14-14, -0.2U

LONGSHOT TD - 6-24, +17.5U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000)

TOTAL - +19.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3 TNF: +2.6U, 101U stake so far)

 

OK a few more TD props to add, now that the books are completing these props, and going YOLO with a posted bet for 0.5U more:

WEATHER REMOVAL (not cashed out yet, waiting to see if reschedule occurs)

As much as I hate to do it, with the weather report looking so bleak, I have to pull Zay Flowers off the player prop list.  If I have to cash out, I'll take the 10% hit, but can't in good conscience play it with tropical storm / cyclone forecasts.   There, the wind is just as big a problem than rain.  For now, I'm sitting tight, as there's a chance the game gets moved to Monday or the forecast improves significantly, in which case we'd be all systems go.   But if you haven't taken the prop, don't need to have all this uncertainty.   If you've already taken the prop, sit tight and see what happens weather / game-rescheduling wise (I'm doing that for now).

Both Rhamondre yardage props and Cole Turner TD props are affected as well, but Rhamondre pass work is still the path with NYJ's run D, and the total is so short (and short passes least affected in this type of weather), I'll stick with that; while Turner's TD prop loses some value the gap is so wide gotta stick with it (and unlike yardage props, TD props don't offer a reasonable cashout option)

 

ADDITION

Rasheed Shaheed - adding the 2nd alt line of 100+ DK for +1200 for 0.5U.   Unlikely, but payout is just too good to pass up, if he hits 2 big plays, gets there (maybe try in the first 55 mins guys).   TD prop went from +600 to below +400 now (not playable currently)

EARLY

Zonovan (Bam) Knight +1300 DK (+1200 FD) / +2000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Craig Reynolds is +200, but there's no guarantee Knight wouldn't pass Reynolds, who's truly JAG.   Knight played very well in NYJ, and Dan Campbell isn't afraid to be bold.  At this price, worth the stab.   If he's inactive, it voids. 

LATE

Equinameous St-Brown +3500 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Claypool's out of the doghouse, but the pass game is still in shambles, so ESB could still dress.   If he's inactive it voids, but if he's active, that price alone, well....

(Yes, I'm still holding on to that John Cougar Mellencamp Oscar win ticket)

Justyn Ross +800 FD / +8000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Kadarius Toney and Richie James have both missed practice x 2 days now, but even if they return, until the Chiefs WR situation gains clarity, those odds deserve the half-stake play.  Ross doesn't play much, but again when he's out there in the RZ, they isolate him vs. a CB.  

MNF

Trey Palmer +600 / +8000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U - clear 3rd WR behind Evans / Godwin.   He's small, but they've already gone his way 1x in the RZ, and he scored to boot.   At that number, and with the Philly secondary really hurting, I have to play the prop at least for half-stake.

In theory, this is another 2.5U, and so I'm up to 32.5U, with Zay Flowers removed, I'm back to 6 player props and 29U total.   I still have 2 player props I'd love to see come out, but it likely won't be until inactives are confirmed for the WAS, and probably without alt lines (probably for the best, as 4U more is still enough for a 30U+ Sunday/Monday card lol).    BOL!

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Broncofan

[Rainmaker90]

I  also on Nico Collins 51 and 75 yards 

Jordan Addison over 50.5 yards 

 

Calvin Ridley is my big player prop 67.5 yards. No Stingley for Hou. A get right spot for Jax