Weekly Bets Thread

[Dash]

Another big SGPx

Montgomery to score two times & rush for over 80yards

Mingo & Sanders over 2.5 catches/Thielen over 4.5 catches

Laporta over 5.5 catches/ Reynolds over 3.5 catches

Westbook-ikhine over 2.5 catches & over 25 receiving yards

Beckham over 1.5 catches/Warren over 2.5 catches

Jonnu over 2.5 catches/Robinson over 3.5 catches

Dolphins Win/Dolphins race to 25 points/Tua over 250+passing yards/ Berrios over 2.5 catches & over 25+ receiving yards/Hill over 60 receiving yards/Waddle over 40 receiving yards

Bet-$10

Payout-$71k

 

[adamq]

28 minutes ago, adamq said:

Fanduel has alt reception props out 👀

Got page bumped on this one just FYI all. Something to watch for on Sunday mornings apparently 

[SaveOurSonics]

Strong start to the day. 
 

ETN O63.5 ✅

Josh Allen O265.5 ✅

Bills Jags O42 (leg in a Teaser) ✅

[SaveOurSonics]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Montgomery - opened at 67.5 rush yds; now 82.5 lol

Now at 84.5 on my book 😂

I put 2u on it MINUTES before the Jahmyr Gibbs news was announced. Such a high 😂

[Broncofan]

The guy I wanted to take early finally comes up on the board with Javonte Williams inactive - Jaleel Mclaughlin O11.5 rec yds for 2U DK .   I really am sad that there are no alt lines.  If B365 bettors have 25+ you should absolutely smash that. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

8 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I really like Hall and Montgomery today. I went with straights and .1 laddered them both all the way to 120 just to have some fun. Will it happen? Likely not but is it worth a few bucks? I believe the possibility is there...... Assuming Saleh isn't lying that they're no longer limiting Hall. 

The Panthers not keeping this game close cost me about 50u.......... I have a lot of words I could say lol. I'm just happy I hit the 100+ parlay but man, pain.

Just glad I made a good read. Been a huge day already and still more to go.

Please score, Garrett Wilson....

[twslhs20]

KC overs 3.5. So huge. I should not be taking big shots like that. I aged 10 years.

[Broncofan]

On 10/5/2023 at 1:18 PM, Broncofan said:

OK so my Sunday card is rounding into shape with ATS/ML plays & player props , only a couple of players who aren't out yet (and I don't think they will until the injury report is finalized on Fri for Sunday games):

WEEK 5 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML (6-9-1,-3U)

EARLY

HOU ML +110 @ ATL  - the HOU O is legit, CJ Stroud is legit, the D is legit.   ATL has Bijan Robinson and Pitts/London who are criminally underutilized, and a very good ATL secondary, but HOU has them covered in coaching & QB & matches them in the trenches, which makes it easy to back them at dog $. 

IND ML +110 vs. TEN - TEN is back to their usual pattern - strong dogs (esp at home), but avoid/fade as favorites, esp on the road.   I think Nuk Hopkins could have a big day, but unless the IND OL is completely decimated on this week's injury report, I have to go with the home team here.   Check the OL injury reports as I do think that was a huge factor in LAR's road win. 

LATE

NYJ ML +120 (10-pt auto-win enabled) - as much as I think Nathaniel Hackett is a bottom 3 OC and Zach Wilson isn't NFL-level, they're facing the worst D in the league AND Vance Joseph, who is also a bottom 3 DC.   The key problem is NYJ matches up so well vs. our weaknesses (DL vs. pass protection, CB's vs our WR's, who are only weapons in pass game, their run game vs. our non-existent run D).    Still, it's not a lock because of Zach & Hackett.  So taking the 10-pt auto-win play here, in case Payton & Russell Wilson can engineer a late comeback like we saw last week at Chicago.

MIN +5  vs. KC - this is a simple testament to MIN DC Brian Flores, who's upgraded the MIN D to be legit.   With KC's continued troubles in finding WR help, I think Cousins & JJ + the rest (Hockensen, Addison) can keep this close, and I'm willing to say they keep it to 3 pts or less, so I have to take the points.

 

That's 4U in plays so far this week. 

 

PLAYER PROPS (25-31, -7.5U)

UK GAME

Dalton Kincaid O3.5 catches FD +130 2U (if you have B365, take the 4/5 alt lines instead - better odds) - covered before, hit 5+ catches in 3/4 games, snap shares increasing, Jags D that allows TE volume.  I don't have B365 but if you have it, 5+ is a smash spot at juiced odds there

 

EARLY

David Montgomery O67.5 rush yds DK 2U  (already up to 70.5 since I started writing this up lol) - CAR bottom 3 run D in the league, and a 10 pt dog.   We know Monty gets volume; if they're up, Monty will get at least 16-18 carries.   I have him projected at 80+ yards.  The only reason besides injury where this doesn't hit - if it becomes a blowout, we may see a lot more rest for Monty and more Jahmyr Gibbs this week (plus, the fact Monty took 30+ carries even though it was 10+ days ago).   In that case, I may or may not take the alt lines.   Still, FD has him opened at 76.5 rush yds, which shows why this should be a smash spot to take for the main line.

Deandre Hopkins O52.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U, 100+ +580 0.5U DK - I have IND winning, but that's not to say it's going to be a slaughter.   IND's run D is decent, so while I expect Derrick Henry to get his touches, it's the TEN pass game that needs to step up.   Nuk is the snap count and target leader - ppl may wonder at him having fewer snaps and targets last week, but he was rested the entire 4Q, which is very misleading.  With this prop and the IND secondary, sign. me. up.   Please, please, please - don't get hurt on this game, Nuk.

D'Andre Swift O65.5 rush yds 2U DK, 90+ rush yds +260 1U, 110+ rush yds +580 0.5U  DK - the PHI OL vs. a bottom half run D, with a game script that has PHI in the lead?   Much like Monty, I'll take a share of 90 & 110 yard alt lines here too.   Again....please, please please don't get hurt lol.

Rasheed Shaheed O27.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ rec yds +300 1U DK - Well, I'm 2-2 with Shaheeed, and ppl may think I'm a glutton for punishment (and they may be right).   But because NE is missing Christian Gonzalez AND a couple of other CB's (why they traded for JC Jackson), with their tough run D, the pass game is where you look for props.  And BB always strives to take away the biggest weapon - which is Chris Olave.  So with those 2 scenarios, I have to take Shaheed at both 27.5 main and the 50+ +300 1st alt line.   

 

LATE

Breece Hall O60.5 rush yds FD 2U;  80+ rush yds +220 1U; 100+ rush yds +500 0.5U & 120+ rush yds +1100 0.5U  - it's the worst run D in the league, and one prone to big home run plays.   This is a 3.5U no-brainer play, even with the risk that OC Hackett decides to "only" call dives on 1st down and uses Dalvin Cook in a timeshare.   Def want the 80/100+ alt lines here & even the 120+ for the rare 4U play.

Tyler Conklin O27.5 rec yds DK 2U, 50+ rec yd +280 1U  - besides the run game, the TE pass D is just abysmal (disregard Wk1 LV, they've targeted TE's 7x in 4 games lol, and MIA was a blowout where they didn't need the TE's at all) - WAS TE's went 7-90-1 Wk2 and CHI TE's were 10-111-2.    Conklin averages 5-6 targets a game as the clear #2 option, I imagine that's his floor, so the 50+ yard alt line is def in play (he has very little YAC ability, so going 70+ seems a stretch - let's see how the early slate works out before lol).    NGL, it's scary to rely on Hackett & Zach Wilson, but the number is too low to pass up on that & 50+ alt line.

James Conner O58.5 rush yds 2U DK - I don't want any part of the pass props for either side, or the ATS/ML, but I do know that Conner will get his 15-18 carries, and the ARI OL is a legit asset.   At 15-18 carries, I had Conner projected at 70-75 yards, so this is a strong main line play.    In the event that ARI does fall behind (so hard to know where Joe Burrow is at each week), I'm likely going to stick to just the main line here. 

NEW SUN MID-PM:  Jaleel Mclaughlin O11.5 rec yds for 2U DK  - With Javonte Williams inactive this just way too low vs. NYJ D and Payton who loves to use the RB in the pass game.  I really am sad that there are no alt lines.  If B365 bettors have 25+ you should absolutely smash that. 

SNF/MNF

Brandon Aiyuk O54.5 rec yds (already 56.5 now) 2U, 80+ rec yds +240, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U  - already covered, but the #1 alpha WR in SF, and DAL's secondary vulnerable to big plays.  He gets both volume and air yards, so this is a 3.5U full play at that # once the alt lines are out.

 

So that’s 28.5U with 10 players on Sunday, and likely am taking that 1 more prop once it's out.  I also have TWO 0.4U free plays this week, so I'll go with Montgomery O70.5 rush yds / Hopkins O53.5  rec yds / Swift O65.5 rush / Kincaid O3.5 +130 / Hall O60.5 rush yds / Conner O58.5 rush yds / Aiyuk O56.5 rec yds for a +9830 YOLO 7-leg parley & Breece Hall top Sunday rusher at +2000 0.4U - YOLO . 

...

LONGSHOT TD (9-48, +21.1U)

UK GAME

Dalton Kincaid +350 / +3500 0.4U / 0.1U FD - DK has him at +250, and I think his line should be at +200.   There aren't many value spots I see this week so far, so I'm going to sneak past my +400 threshold as I do think this is one of the best values on the board so far.   If the line moves to +300, then I'd probably stick with a 0.5U play, and pass on anything lower.

Khalil Shakir +1500 FD 0.4U / +11000 2+ DK  0.1U & Trent Sherfield +950 FD 0.4U / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.1U - it's crazy, DK has Sherfield at +400 to score a TD, while FD has +950 while DK has Shakir at +850 & FD has him at +550 (edit: then up to +1500!). I agree they're splitting the slot work, and Kincaid is also in the mix (while Diggs/Davis still get theirs) - but the odds just give too good of an opp to pass up on (Sherfield's best odds for 2+ are +4000 on DK, waiting to see how Bodog & other books line up, I think I can do better than that lol.  EDIT FRI - Bodog comes through at +10000). 

 

EARLY

Wan'dale Robinson +600 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog (+550 on FD/DK, but much lower 2-TD odds) - he's gradually taking over slot work from Parris Campbell (while Jalen Hyatt is taking over the boundary position over Isaiah Hodgins), and he's tied for top targets, and now 2nd in snaps from Darius Slayton.   The issue with NYG's OL  is that the deeper ball isn't there - but Wan'dale's role gives him a fair amount of security.    Still given how bad that OL is, I'm going with the 0.5U play here. 

Rasheed Shaheed +450 / +5000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD -  as long as the odds are +400 or better, I'll go 0.5U play, if it's +600 or better, I'll go full unit.   

Jimmy Graham +750 FD 0.4U / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.1U -  you have no idea how hard it is for me to type this out.  But Juwan Johnson is almost certainly out of the game, so that actually makes it easy to predict they'll bring in old man JG in a throwing down inside the RZ.   Have to take the 0.5U play at those #'s; I don't think the books realize Juwan is likely out this week.

NEW SAT AM: Antoine Green +1200 / +19000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - who?  DET rookie WR; unlike Jameson Williams he’s been on the field.  With Amon-Ra St. Brown doubtful and both Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Reynolds added to the injury report - he actually becomes viable.  Still not enough to back more than a half-stake play. 
 

NEW SAT PM:  Zonovan Knight +2000 SI (+900 DK) / +13000 2+  DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Now with Jahmyr Gibbs doubtful Knight is worth a half-stake play.    I already have him on Sports Interaction at +2000 (but most don’t have that book available) lol.

LATE

Noah Gray +700 FD (+650 Bodog) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - MIN pass D offers the same type of setup as last week where TE’s can score.  At this number I have to go back to the well with Gray’s usage and targets.   
 

NEW FRI PM: Tyler Conklin +400 DK / +4000 FD 0.8U / 0.2U - DEN D is horrendous vs TE.   Conklin clear #2 target.   Scary to rely on Zach Wilson & Hackett.  But too good of a matchup

NEW FRI PM:  Brandon Johnson +600 DK / +7000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U - DJ Reed and next outside CB are out.  Johnson functions as the big move TE in the RZ.   Gotta trust it at that number. 

NEW FRI PM:  Xavier Gipson +1600 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U -   Starting to get looks as gadget guy and 3rd WR over Cobb in NYJ.  Plus elite punt returner.  See Conklin on concerns lol.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Andrei Iosivas (initially +1500 on FD now +1200) +1400 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with news that Tee Higgins is out Iosivas becomes worth a half-stake play.  

SNF/MNF

Added SAT AM: Luke Schoonmaker +1000 / +12000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U - Peyton Hendershot is out and Schoonmaker has a 50% snap share when that happened with 2 RZ targets    Worth the half-stake play. 

That's 8.5U in 14 TD plays so far, we'll see how much the late slate & SNF/MNF provides.  That's 41U  in total.  BOL!

 

ATS/ML: 6-9-1, -3U (WK 5 TNF: NIL)

PLAYER PROPS: 27-33, -3.9U (WK 5 TNF: 2-2, +3.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-51, +19.6U  (WK5 0-3, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +12.7U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 TNF: +1.6U; 229U stake so far)

 

On 10/5/2023 at 10:52 PM, Broncofan said:

WEEK 5 TNF RECAP

For +1100, +1200 & +600 I can't ask for better chances for Dynami Brown (X2!!!), Cole Turner & Darnell Mooney - literally all had TD looks and were open and the ball doesn't get there due to bad throws (Mooney, Brown x2) / bad read (Turner).  That's the game, but man that's really rough to not hit even 1.   There's a diff world where we're celebrating 3 TD's tonight, if not 4.  To top it off, Dotson is wide open for a 20-yard gain late in the 4Q, and Howell throws it OB and pulls him off the field.   Sigh, NGL that's rough to watch literally 5 bad breaks to 0 good breaks.   That's the game, but same thing happened last 2 weeks, too (along with bad calls).   Oh well.

 

PLAYER PROPS - 2-2, +3.6U Jahan Dotson's underuse (along with Terry Mclaurin) is criminal, but it's real.   0-3 on the season with him, bad call, no need to see any more evidence.  If you can't get right vs. the CHI D, well, it's crazy to say it, but the WAS O prefers to use Curtis Samuel.   Unless Samuel gets hurt, Dotson isn't usable.    Brian Robinson got game scripted out of the run game, it happens.    Fortunately Josh Fields O47.5 rush yds 2U easily hits, and DJ Moore hits ALL of the alt lines, so it's a still a +3.6U night.   But it hurts that it could have been so much more, namely...

TD PROPS - 0-3, -2U - ALL THREE GUYS literally had TD's, were open and targeted in 3 of the 4 plays...and 3 bad throws (Mooney, Brown), and 1 missed reads (Turner) - goose egg.   Worse yet, Dynami Brown had TWO missed clear TD's.   Ugh, ugh, ugh.   Still, they were correct evals - so take a deep breath, and have faith the good calls will lead to good results.

It's still a W, but somehow +1.6U feels so small, given the clear TD chances, and Dotson's missed 20-yarder at the 2nd last drive.   Still, it's a win, so hopefully fortune will turn on Sunday - after Cole Turner getting tackled at the 1 last week and being open for the walk-in TD, I feel like we're due lol.   On to Sunday!

 

 

 

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The guy I wanted to take early finally comes up on the board with Javonte Williams inactive - Jaleel Mclaughlin O11.5 rec yds for 2U DK .   I really am sad that there are no alt lines.  If B365 bettors have 25+ you should absolutely smash that. 

WEEK 5 SUN RECAP

It's crazy that I lose 2 player props (James Conner was absolutely snakebitten with 46 rushing yds in 1Q) for 4U, and pulled a Week 5 Sunday goose egg for TD props - but absolutely CRUSHED Sunday, especially after an -3.5U start with UK game.

ATS/ML - 2-2, +0.3U - feel unfortunate that HOU let it slip away (4 FG's in RZ did them in), and the late-game shenanigans in MIN (whoa)....but still, a +0.3U thanks to taking dogs lol.

PLAYER PROPS - 7-2, +25.9U + 8U top rusher (0.4U +2000 Breece Hall) - OK, if CMC or Tony Pollard get past 175, then I'll take it back - but I feel like I can pencil the top SUN rusher award.   A GREAT day - and while fortune has screwed me over the last 2 weeks, today luck bounced my way for 3 props (Shaheed, Swift for 4U each and then Conklin late x2 to get the main AND alt line) and only 1x against me (James Conner 46 yds after 1Q).   So it was a 14.8U swing for me and 4U against - after the last 2 weeks, I'll take it.

TD props - 0-10, -8U - the one I feel brutalized on - Zonovan Knight gets hurt on his first play in relief for David Montgomery - and Craig Reynolds get the late game TD - literally a 10U swing.  Oh well, after getting Shaheed & Conklin barely get past the line, then a last-pass play 30+ yard to give me another 2.8U (for a 6.8U swing for Conklin and a 4U swing for Shaheed and 4U swing for Swift), I can accept this one....this week lol.  Iosivas had plenty of RZ snaps, and so did Grey, as did Khalil Shakir & Tyler Conklin & Brandon Johnson & Rashid Shaheed, but really nothing other than Knight I can complain about.

 

So with the rushing leader award I'd be at +25.7U profit for Sunday's slate, minus my 0.5U hedge below.  Just to insulate myself against a horrible beat with Breece Hall's 177 rush yds, I'm going to take 0.25U on Tony Pollard +1200 on 120+ and CMC for 0.25U for +800 150+ rush yds - just so I don't have to sweat losing on that 8U hit (I'll live with 7.5U profit and those don't hit lol).   Combined with TNF's 1.6U profit, I'm at +27.3U for Week 5 - THAT is more like it.    I still have 3.5U on Brandon Aiyuk player props and the Schoonmaker TD prop (which I'll increase to 0.8U/0.2U given my YOLO day), and just for kicks, I'll add Ray-Ray Mcleod +1800 FD for 0.5U (no 2-TD prop lol).   Let's finish Week 5 strong!

 

EDIT: Aiyuk main line hits but no alt lines & no TD so it’s -1U on SNF - totals adjusted below.  Still an awesome day.  

 

ATS/ML: 8-11-1, -2.7U (WK 5 SNF: 2-2, +0.3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 35-35, +30.0U (WK 5 SNF: 10-4, +37.5U including Breece Hall top Wk5 Sunday rusher 20-1 0.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-63, +10.1U WK5 0-13, -11.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +37.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 SNF: +26.3U; 275U stake so far)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

So far today I hit on a few of my bets.

I hit on the ATTD parlay of Achane, Hurts, CMC, and Montgomery.

I had a straight bet with a boost for an Achane ATTD and hit on that one too.

I hit on a Miami -6.5 and Chiefs ML parlay

I need Aiyuk to get 15 more REC yds to hit on my other parlay.

If CMC gets another ATTD Ill hit on a CMC 2 TD straight bet.

I was so close on hitting on a Montgomery 2 TD straight bet. Goff had to vulture the TD at the goal line. I was so mad lol. 

[stl4life07]

Aiyuk got his 50+ yds REC so I won my other parlay of Aiyuk 50+yds REC, Hall O59.5yds RUSH, Brown 50+yds REC, Puka 50+yds REC, and Miami O29pts team total. 
 

Now if CMC can score another TD that would be icing on the cake for me today lol. 

[twslhs20]

Hit a 4 team parlay with the 9ers win. I wink this week is a good idea up start leaning bankroll management lol.

[adamq]

Jimmy G to score +500- simply just in case the Raiders get to the 1 or maybe a dpi in the endzone.. Jimbo is quite good at the qb sneak, and yes they have jacobs and Jimmy's coming off a conclusion, but I don't think Josh cares

[BobbyPhil1781]

Gambling is the only reason I'm excited for tomorrow's game.

Sincerely,

A Raider's fan

[Broncofan]

WEEK 5 MNF 

ATS / ML 

GB +120 FD (now +115) - the way this loses is if the GB OL lets Maxx Crosby wreak havoc on Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs controls the run game.   But I do believe Matt Lafleur can game plan around one guy on D.    And then the GB OL getting 3 hits back on OL that missed or left the LV game will allow Love to exploit the LV secondary.   I also believe this game will be a Pack home game away from home (we see same in LAC).   
 

PLAYER PROPS 

Josh Jacobs o72.5 rush yds 2U;  100+ rush yds +260 1U DK -  covered before; with a concussed JimmyG and a gimpy Davante Adams I’d expect Josh McD to dial up 20+ carries for Jacobs tonight.  Have to take the alt line with that.  
 

Christian Watson o41.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 70 yds +320 1U DK - if he’s healthy this number is just too low.  2nd week back after being on IR I’m ok to take the shot.  
 

Romeo Doubs o45.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ Rec yds +260 1U DK - same as Watson. 

Jayden Reed o33.5 Rec yds 2U & 50+ Rec yds +200 1U FD - LV slot CB Nate Hobbs is out - this makes him the best matchup of the bunch.  Thx to @adamq for raising this   
 

Why am I attacking all 3 GB WR pass props?  Because imo they are all 15-20 yds too low - but the context last week was that GB lost 2 starters from the OL and best backup in-game (Jenkins, Tom & Runyan).   But they’re all back (Bakhtari has been out all season).   They protect against Maxx Crosby it’s a major mismatch for the WR’s.   Helping Crosby is why I wouldn’t take Luke Musgrave tonight btw.  That’s 12U in player props   

 

TD PROPS 

I don’t see any great  longshot odds so I’m going to contract things a bit and take value in GB’s big 3 WR who IMO are all at value vs a bottom 5 LV secondary.    

Christian Watson +250 / +2000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - DK has him at +180 and I think +150 is about right.   

Romeo Doubs +280 / +2500 2+ FD - DK has him at +210 and i think +150-+180 is right.  
 

Jayden Reed +380 / +4000 0.8U / 0.2U FD - with news Hobbs is out I have to take thisA

NEW MON PM - Emmanuel Wilson +1000 (+1400 on B365) / +17000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - well with news Aaron Jones is very doubtful to go tonight, then have to take this.  I doubt it stays at this number for very long.

Unlike super longshots I don’t see FD odds rising so taking it now esp with the discrepancy with other books.   I’m basically looking for 2+ TD’s from the big 3 GB WR corps tonight.    If I get 3+ we’re doing great.  

That’s 4U in TD props tonight and 17U in total which is definitely enough.  It’s risky but I see such an edge in GB pass & LV rush props I have to take it.  
 

Let’s finish a great Week 5 on a high note! 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Jayden Reed is the Packers WR I was looking at from a fantasy perspective. I think he is locked in as their slot and has some eye popping advanced stats so far this year