Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I regret the Brandon Johnson +600 play (which is static btw).

how come dk doesn't ever let you cash out td bets?

[Broncofan]

21 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

how come dk doesn't ever let you cash out td bets?

No idea, but they don't.  FD on the other hand, is fine with cashouts.  Oh well, every once in a while, we're on the wrong side of an early play.   Jeudy is 53.5 today (although he was up to 56.5 before the wind issue came up).    But as part of the entire exercise:

Jeudy - 54.5 to 53.5

McKinnon - 12.5 to 14.5, then 13.5

Mims - 16.5 to 18.5, then 17.5

McKinnon - +350 / +3600 to +280 / +2500

Johnson - +600 / +9000 static

Ross - +1300 to +1200 (+15000 DK static)

Wilson - +750 to +600 

Overall, getting in early if you see an edge, often creates +CLV.   Johnson's is actually static, which is fine - but I'd have been on Mims / Dulcich TD at those #'s if they were offered first over Johnson's, NGL.   Still, it's only 1U in the grand scheme of things (and the way TD plays have been snakebitten, Johnson is probably the one that gets the best chances lol).

 

[stl4life07]

Ok so this is my TNF parlay play with the 50% boost on DK:

Pacheco 70+yds RUSH

Pacheco ATTD

Chiefs -3.5

 

 

[Broncofan]

OK some DK Sunday card plays are open besides the , and some of them have already moved up, I took one early and OMG it's skyrocketing:

WEEK 6 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML

Can wait for now

 

PLAYER PROPS 

EARLY

TJ Hockenson O51.5 rec yds (now 54.5 already <wow>) 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U , 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK -  Fantasy managers are trying to figure out which is the better play, KJ Osborn or Jordan Addison, since Osborn is apparently taking the JJ position (but Addison the much better player).   Against the Bears, though, Hockenson is the leverage spot to attack.   I know that ppl may point out that Hock has only put up 100+ yds in MIN 1x - but Justin Jefferson was there every game.    Honestly, it the rec prop offered alt lines at DK/FD, I'd go there too.

DJ Moore O59.5 rec yds 2U - not going to get too greedy as it's rare for players to explode 2x a week, but 60+ seems like a decent 2U play.

LATE

Dallas Goedert O37.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +260 1U, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK - what??? this is the NYJ pass D, who will likely get DJ Reed back (2 practices in a row, last step to getting cleared from concussion) to pair with Sauce Gardner.  This is a classic TE funnel pass D.   I am shocked the number isn't in the mid-40's.   

SNF / MNF 

Not out yet

 

I will say if Josh Dobbs rush yds are in the mid-20's I'll definitely go there, and entertain a 40+ yard alt line; I think I trust Dobbs to run more than the RB's that will be there.   I also am waiting on Jakobi Meyers O4.5 lines to come out, as that seems a lock vs. NE's suddenly-softer pass D (with no Christian Gonzalez) and all the attention on Davante Adams, and makes for a good reason to keep the NE-LV game in my 4-game split screen for the late slate (NGL if there was a 5th late game that would be prime to cut lol).    There's another player prop I'll wait for, but I don't know if it will even come up, so we'll see.

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Dynami Brown +1100 DK / +15000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U DK - I know that ATL has a great pass D - but it's also because they have a shutdown corner in AJ Terrell, and great safety play from former Bengal Jessie Bates.   But they're still vulnerable to secondary WR's beating them for scores, if they can use speed.   For WAS, that's again Dynami Brown.   I'm surprised the books didn't adjust the line, given that Brown easily could have had 2-TD's last week, but I'll take the shot again at these #'s, even though the ATL pass D is tougher.   Maybe the bounces go our way this week.

LATE

Nothing yet

 

There are 5 players who've posted lines on DK of which 3 are playable right now, but I want to see the FD/Bodog lines before taking.

SUN card on page 352 being updated, will add more as they come, but esp given Goedert's super-low line, the Hockenson movement already happening & the really surprising static Dynami Brown TD line, worth posting now. BOL!

Edited October 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

Whelp! My Week 6 didnt start off right. I thought Pacheco would get 70yds and a TD. I had the Chiefs right getting -3.5. 

Now I look forward to the Sunday slate of games. 

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Whelp! My Week 6 didnt start off right. I thought Pacheco would get 70yds and a TD. I had the Chiefs right getting -3.5. 

Now I look forward to the Sunday slate of games. 

The books cleaned up on all counts.  Pacheco didn't hit ANY lines - even if you got in early at 71.5.   And he got 16 carries, so it wasn't even that the timeshare was bad (my concern when I just passed on it).

Mckinnon only hitting 1 line was SO unfortunate (as the unnecessary downfield penalty took back 15+ yards, and if there was no penalty, review might have in fact created a full-alt line hit - it was a -4.5U penalty swing, but could have been a 9.5U swing).  Oh well.

McKinnon was the correct call he got 20+ anyways, Pacheco got 35+.   Russell Wilson rush yards thankfully hit as well.    But those were the only 2, Jeudy/Mims weren't close.   DEN +10.5 was painful knowing it closed at +11, but that's a 1U swing, not going to sweat it lol.   The TD calls for Ross & player props for Jeudy & Mims & Mims/Dulcich TD calls were just bad ones (the lack of PT for Mims & Dulcich are what made it bad, not the talent assessment).     Still, a -10U play just really drives home 1 point - unless you're sure it's a shootout, sticking to your 2-3 best plays is probably the max in 1-game (I will say TNF last week was correctly called as a shootout, the 4 missed TD's will correct eventually if you get that many chances, and still a good night).     Jeudy & McKinnon were my 2 faves, so wouldn't have avoided the Jeudy fail, but keeps things steadier.    So 2-2 player props, 0-1 ATS & 0-5 on the TD's makes for a -10U night (ugh).

On to Sunday, looking to turn things back on the right side then (BAL/TEN is a nice game to target with the 3 plays so far).

Edited October 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The books cleaned up on all counts.  Pacheco didn't hit ANY lines - even if you got in early at 71.5.   And he got 16 carries, so it wasn't even that the timeshare was bad (my concern when I just passed on it).

Mckinnon only hitting 1 line was SO unfortunate (as the unnecessary downfield penalty took back 15+ yards, and if there was no penalty, review might have in fact created a full-alt line hit - it was a -4.5U penalty swing, but could have been a 9.5U swing).  Oh well.

McKinnon was the correct call he got 20+ anyways, Pacheco got 35+.   Russell Wilson rush yards thankfully hit as well.    But those were the only 2, Jeudy/Mims weren't close.   DEN +10.5 was painful knowing it closed at +11, but that's a 1U swing, not going to sweat it lol.   The TD calls for Ross & player props for Jeudy & Mims & Mims/Dulcich TD calls were just bad ones (the lack of PT for Mims & Dulcich are what made it bad, not the talent assessment).     Still, a -10U play just really drives home 1 point - unless you're sure it's a shootout, sticking to your 2-3 best plays is probably the max in 1-game (I will say TNF last week was correctly called as a shootout, the 4 missed TD's will correct eventually if you get that many chances, and still a good night).     Jeudy & McKinnon were my 2 faves, so wouldn't have avoided the Jeudy fail, but keeps things steadier.    So 2-2 player props, 0-1 ATS & 0-5 on the TD's makes for a -10U night (ugh).

On to Sunday, looking to turn things back on the right side then (BAL/TEN is a nice game to target with the 3 plays so far).

You are right about the books cleaning up. If I wasn’t worried about Kelce injury I would’ve just had his catches and yards props. 
 

I normally stay away from TNF games. I just thought the Broncos defense was so bad let me take a chance on Pacheco props and the Chiefs win by more than a field goal. Also I pass on the out of states early games bc they can be weird. But I wish you luck on your bets in that Bal/Ten game. I do have fantasy players in Lamar and Andrews in that game so I hope they have a big day. I had the Chiefs defense tonight and they gave me 17 fantasy points so I’m off to a great start from a fantasy standpoint.

[N4L]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

TJ Hockenson O51.5 rec yds (now 54.5 already <wow) 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U , 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK -  Fantasy managers are trying to figure out which is the better play, KJ Osborn or Jordan Addison, since Osborn is apparently taking the JJ position (but Addison the much better player).   Against the Bears, though, Hockenson is the leverage spot to attack.   I know that ppl may point out that Hock has only put up 100+ yds in MIN 1x - but Justin Jefferson was there every game.    Honestly, it the rec prop offered alt lines at DK/FD, I'd go there too.

DJ Moore O59.5 rec yds 2U - not going to get too greedy as it's rare for players to explode 2x a week, but 60+ seems like a decent 2U play.

The total in this game is 44. That feels very low with both of these defenses, no? 

I also think Mooney is worth a look. He had 4 targets last week but couldnt connect. Obviously Fields prioritized DJM's targets, but he and Mooney have a great connection. He is a great deep threat. Minnesota must see that Fields heavily targeted DJM last week and they will undoubtedly shade coverage to his side. Mooney's prop is 32.5. He could have a 50+ yard bomb. I think I am going to play the alt line up to like 75 yards or something like that. Just feels like his week to shine. 

[Broncofan]

11 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

You are right about the books cleaning up. If I wasn’t worried about Kelce injury I would’ve just had his catches and yards props. 
 

I normally stay away from TNF games. I just thought the Broncos defense was so bad let me take a chance on Pacheco props and the Chiefs win by more than a field goal. Also I pass on the out of states early games bc they can be weird. But I wish you luck on your bets in that Bal/Ten game. I do have fantasy players in Lamar and Andrews in that game so I hope they have a big day. I had the Chiefs defense tonight and they gave me 17 fantasy points so I’m off to a great start from a fantasy standpoint.

The Kelce injury and Mahomes ankle getting dinged made them radioactive to play - of course Mahomes rush yds hits (but not Pacheco) and Kelce & Rashee Rice are the only non-RB pass plays to hit.     Javonte Williams being active made it difficult to play either RB (I mentioned this, but I was looking to play Mclaughlin l if Javonte was inactive, with Javonte active tonight, the books didn't even post Jaleel props until last hour lol).    

The thing is, if you spot a game where the sparks are going to fly O-wise, then alt lines make it pay off handsomely.   It's just crazy that the 2 hurt guys on KC were the ones that hit, other than the RB receiving props (which I did correctly ID, thankfully).    

[Broncofan]

38 minutes ago, N4L said:

The total in this game is 44. That feels very low with both of these defenses, no? 

I also think Mooney is worth a look. He had 4 targets last week but couldnt connect. Obviously Fields prioritized DJM's targets, but he and Mooney have a great connection. He is a great deep threat. Minnesota must see that Fields heavily targeted DJM last week and they will undoubtedly shade coverage to his side. Mooney's prop is 32.5. He could have a 50+ yard bomb. I think I am going to play the alt line up to like 75 yards or something like that. Just feels like his week to shine. 

Yes it does - but the X-factor is that the MIN WR's left do NOT separate, or fare well in press coverage.   The blessing here?   CHI plays predominant zone.   They also play a lot of high-safety looks, to keep WR totals down - but it's why the TE's eat.   Add it up, and it's what makes Hockenson such a smash spot.   Same deal with NYJ D and Goedert. 

I hear you on Mooney, but as Mims attested to tonight, focusing on the higher-target guys with relatively low main props, it's worked better.   I agree with you on MIN looking to limit Moore - they just haven't been good at coverage in general.  

One thing to keep in mind this weekend - the weather forecast does look like it's a factor.  I know it's often overblown, but it does seem more relevant this week.   KC didn't turn out to be nearly as bad as initially forecasted, but the same can't be said for Sunday yet.  If the wind is as bad as advertised, then playing on deep balls guys is a lot riskier.

 UK game I definitely hammered for the setup/matchup, but no weather concerns.  

Moore gets so much volume, I feel like he can get to 60+ even with the short - middle pass game.    Hock eats in the short-middle game.  That helps mitigate weather issues for MIN-CHI.

I took Dynami Brown TD prop not just for his usage, but also that he's in ATL, so no concerns there. 

CAR-MIA is projected to play at 100+ degree weather with the humidex, with blowout potential, I'm probably only playing a blowout-scenario TD guy if the scenario is right, and 1 main line.   

PHI-NYJ could def get affected by the weather, but Goedert's involvement in the short area, and the low totals, make it much easier to back.   

 

I don't like to be a slave to weather - it's the last factor IMO.   But it also can change gamescript, which I do think is one of the 3 key factors.  If I love the talent/volume, their matchup, and the gamescript fits - then I just want to make sure they're relatively "weather-proof" if there's a major concern.  I think the plays so far on Sunday fit, but we'll see as always.   BOL!

 

Edited October 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

I think I am taking the entire Jags passing offense this weekend. 

The colts secondary is bad. I have targeted them a few times already this year. The jags passing offense looked like it finally found a rhythm in London. Ridley broke out of his funk. He already had 100 yards against them in week 1. Kirk is pretty steady in his role and he gets nearly 10 targets weekly. Engram has had 8 targets in literally every single game except week 1. I am taking the over ridley 61 yards, over kirk 61 yards, over engram 41 yards, over Lawrence 254 yards. 

Mostert ladder up to like 110

I was out on Baltimore this weekend when I thought they were playing in Nashville. I didnt realize that game was in London. I am going to take BAL -3. The titans are back to their old ways, bet on them as a home dog, fade them as a road favorite. They obviously arent favorites this weekend, but I think the ravens defense is really good and they should handle the titans offense. Lamar is playing really well right now and I think the ravens find a way to win this game. 

I am already in on the ravens passing props. Over 220 yards for lamar. Over 55.5 yards for Zay. Over 56 yards for Andrews. 

I am on Miami team total over 31.5. I am going to continue to ride this. They just score so fast. Tyreek is really unguardable this year. Tua is efficient. That run game is just so multiple that it really is impossible to defend. Carolina has not bought into their new coach. They are winless. I think they will fold. 

[Broncofan]

OK so a ton of plays came in overnight, so easier to just post Week 6's full card here again (apologies for the repeats, but the new additions are marked):


WEEK 6 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML (FRI AM POSTED)

EARLY

DET -3 @ TAM - I know ppl are worried about DET missing so many RB's and now Sam Laporta is on the injury report.    But Mike Evans has a hammy tweak, and without him, the TAM O is much easier to defend.  Give me the havoc Aidan Hutchinson can bring and the DET OL edge, I'll take it as long as it stays under 3. 

SF -10 @ CLE - I get it's a lot of points.   And the CLE D is legit.   But PJ Walker is so bad.   And that same CLE D can get worn down if they're asked to be on the field 35+ mins. 

HOU +110 vs. NO - wrong team is favored here.    I have a lot of love for the players on NO, but as long as Pete Carmichael runs that O, it's always going to underachieve.    HOU's run D is legit, as long as the NO O is stunted, I have to take the +money play here. 

LATE

NE +130 @ LV - 2 awful, awful teams.   And yes, I know Belichick assistants do well against their mentor.   But the matchups except with Mac Jones lean to NE this week.  I do think Jakobi Meyers does well, but I favor the NE run game - just maybe no laterals this week from Jakobi Meyers (wrong team), and this one likely goes NE's way.    I don't feel like this is a lock, but the line's so wide on what should be a pick 'em.  

SNF/MNF

LAC +120 vs. DAL - same deal here.   I know Brandon Staley sucks, but Mike McCarthy is equally as bad.   If you give me a battle vs. bad coaches, and it has to be QB vs D, well I'll go with the better QB.   Micah Parsons could absolutely make me regret this, but that's where LAC's much-improved pass pro OL comes in. 

That's 5U in ATS/ML plays.


PLAYER PROPS

UK GAME

DeAndre Hopkins O54.5 rec yds FD 2U (58.5 on DK), 80+ yds +220 1U, 100+ rec yds +520 0.5U FD - Nuk is still the target hog, and while Marlon Humphrey's back, he is coming off foot surgery, and he was beat by George Pickens.   When healthy, Nuk's still got the moves and hands.   It's not as much of a smash spot matchup wise, but the gamescript has the BAL run D really forcing more passes for TEN, so that helps in taking this prop. EDIT:  FD comes in 4 yards lower, so def go there for main line and 80+ / 10 alt lines once they're out, unless the main line # skyrockets before alt lines become available.

Zay Flowers O51.5 rec yds 2U (54.5 on DK),  80+ rec yds +280 1U, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U FD - Flowers had 2 brutal drops, but he remains the BAL top target - and now his downfield usage is increasing.   Against TEN's pass funnel D, this is a smash spot.    Volume, matchup and increasing air yardage?  Sign me up.  EDIT:  FD again a lot lower, so go there for main line & alt lines unless the main line # gets close to DK's.

 

EARLY 

TJ Hockenson O51.5 rec yds (now 54.5 already <wow) 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U , 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK -  Fantasy managers are trying to figure out which is the better play, KJ Osborn or Jordan Addison, since Osborn is apparently taking the JJ position (but Addison the much better player).   Against the Bears, though, Hockenson is the leverage spot to attack.   I know that ppl may point out that Hock has only put up 100+ yds in MIN 1x - but Justin Jefferson was there every game.    Honestly, it the rec prop offered alt lines at DK/FD, I'd go there too.

NEW THU PM - DJ Moore O59.5 rec yds 2U  DK - not going to get too greedy as it's rare for players to explode 2x a week and the CHI weather, but 60+ seems like a decent 2U play.

NEW FRI AM - Calvin Ridley O59.5 rec yds for 2U on FD (started on DK same, but DK now O60.5), and 80+ rec yds +200 1U & 100+ rec yds +400 0.5U - Doug Pederson loves to hammer best matchups.   Week 4 vs. ATL, Ridley only gets 2 targets vs. AJ Terrell in ATL, while Christian Kirk had the monster game.  With IND, it's everyone but Kenny Moore you target - Moore is a top slot cover guy, and Kirk only got 3 targets in Week 1.  I expect a similar plan, and Moore's back, so go with Ridley this week.

LATE

Dallas Goedert O37.5 rec yds 2U (now 39.5), 60+ rec yds +260 1U, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK - what??? this is the NYJ pass D, who will likely get DJ Reed back (2 practices in a row, last step to getting cleared from concussion) to pair with Sauce Gardner.  This is a classic TE funnel pass D.   I am shocked the number isn't in the mid-40's.  

NEW THU PM - Rhamondre Stevenson O44.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +300 1U, 100+ rush yds +900 0.5U DK  - weird that the line closed altogether, but I got this just before.    The Raiders run D is susceptible, and I imagine BB will want to focus on running the ball here.   Rhamondre has had tough matchups, this is the first that's a plus, so the low 40's really helps make the main line and 1st line a no-brainer; the +900 is too good to pass up (as a contrast, it's +600 on FD at main line 45.5).  I'm sure B365 is better, but still great value

NEW FRI AM  - Jakobi Meyers O5.5 catches +110 FD 2U -  I'm sad I don't have B365, because I'd definitely play the 7+/8+ catch alt line here.   NE always looks to take away the top target, and that's still Davante Adams.   So an easy 2U play here. 

NEW FRI AM - Josh Dobbs O19.5 rush yds 2U, 40+ rush yds +370 1U DK - Dobbs has gone 40+ 3 of his 5 games, and LAR D has given up 50+ to running QB's the last 2 games.   With James Conner out, I like the Dobbs rush props even more, and if LAR gets ahead, it's still in play even in a pass heavy gamescript.   Both the main & 1st alt line are too good to pass up.

 

 That's 28U so far in 9 plays.   Getting the usual 0.4U free play offer from DK, but also one with FD, so going with 7-leg Hopkins O56.5 / Flowers O56.5 / Ridley O60.5 / Hockenson O54.5 / Goedert O39.5 / Rhamondre O45.5 / Meyers O5.5 rec props for +8500 DK &  6-leg (no Ridley, wasn't up yet) +4500) pending.  YOLO....lol.

 

LONGSHOT TD

UK GAME

Kyle Phillips +1300 FD  / +15000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - he's the 2022 rookie slot WR who was hurt a lot, and missed the first 4 games - just got back last week.   With Treylon Burks still trending to be out this week, Phillips is likely their 2nd/3rd best WR talent-wise (depending on what you think of Westbrook-Ikhine), the Q is opportunity / snaps - but given his role last year when he was healthy was fairly substantial, and the state of the TEN WR corps right now (Chris Moore is AWFUL), this is too good of a play to pass up.     EDIT THU PM:   With news that Treylon Burks is offfically out, time to get Phillips TD props is now.

EARLY

NEW THU PM - Dynami Brown +1100 DK / +15000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U DK - I know that ATL has a great pass D - but it's also because they have a shutdown corner in AJ Terrell, and great safety play from former Bengal Jessie Bates.   But they still give up TD's to secondary WR's and for WAS, that's again Dynami Brown.   Surprised DK didn't adjust with 2 near-TD's for him, but fingers crossed the bounces go our way this week. 

NEW FRI AM - Colby Parkinson +800 / +1400 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - as long as they keep giving me these lines, against vulnerable TE D's, I have to go here.  Parkinson is still taking a full timeshare with Noah Fant, but he's getting 3-4x better odds.    CIN's TE D is a sore spot with Jesse Bates' departure, so let's hope for TD opp fortune to swing our way.

NEW  FRI AM - Jared Goff +800 / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - with only 1 healthy RB (David Montgomery) ahead of Craig Reynolds, the chances of a trick RPO (used 2 weeks ago) or a QB sneak with a DPI at 1 yard line (TAM secondary does take a fair number of penalties), worth the 0.5U play.  

NEW FRI AM - Drew Ogletree +1000 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - It's gone under the radar, but there appears to be a changing of the guard in IND.  Drew Ogletree took 65+ percent of the snaps last week, and he was getting snaps before being concussed early in the season.    With JAX's TE D being quite generous, and their D vs. WR1-2 & RB's being much stingier, this is a play worth exploiting.   DK has Ogletree at +700 / +8000, but if Bodog has +700 type odds, their 2-TD should be better than +8000 2+, so I'll wait to see what the 2-TD play is, but FD I'll play now, especially as Mo-Alie Cox still hasn't cleared concussion protocol.  EDIT FRI PM:  Sure enough, Bodog comes through with +10000 2+ props (off +650 main prop, their 2-TD prop is one of the best around compared to the main line offered).

NEW FRI PM - Kendre Miller +600 + / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog - yes, Kamara is the lead dog.  But Miller is very capable, and the run TD's are the best way to attack HOU's O near the RZ.   Still, with Kamara as the alpha, can't take more than a half-stake stab.

NEW FRI PM - Ronnie Bell +1800 FD 0.4U / +17000 2+ DK 0.1U - he still gets about 25% of the snaps even with Juan Jennings in the game, but I'm banking on a bigger share simply because of the blowout potential here.   Still, I'm basically hoping for 2H usage, so I can't go for more than a half-stake play given it may not happen (but at least I know he'll be out there for some snaps).

LATE

NEW FRI AM - Xavier Gipson +1200 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - the weather and the PHI pass rush (plus Zach Wilson & Nathaniel Hackett) give me pause - but the +1200 justifies a half-stake play, especially as NYJ has made it clear Mecole Hardman is on the outs.   He's still seeing more snaps and it's clear the O needs juice.    Worth the half-stake stab at that number.

 

So that's 6U in 8 TD props and likely 28U in 9 player props and 5U with 5 ATS/ML plays, so we're up to 39U, along with the 0.4U +4500 6-leg player prop FD (no Ridley) & 0.4U 7-leg +8500 DK free plays.  Looking for Sunday to turn things around after a rough  MNF / TNF.  BOL!

 

 

ATS/ML: 8-13-1, -4.7U (WK 6 TNF: 0-1, -1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 38-40, +18.7U (WK 6 TNF: 2-2, -4.5U - McKinnon called back play UGH -9.5U swing)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-68, +2.6U (WK5 0-13, -11.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +16.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 TNF - -10.0U; 309U stake so far)

Edited October 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, N4L said:

I think I am taking the entire Jags passing offense this weekend. 

The colts secondary is bad. I have targeted them a few times already this year. The jags passing offense looked like it finally found a rhythm in London. Ridley broke out of his funk. He already had 100 yards against them in week 1. Kirk is pretty steady in his role and he gets nearly 10 targets weekly. Engram has had 8 targets in literally every single game except week 1. I am taking the over ridley 61 yards, over kirk 61 yards, over engram 41 yards, over Lawrence 254 yards. 

Mostert ladder up to like 110

I was out on Baltimore this weekend when I thought they were playing in Nashville. I didnt realize that game was in London. I am going to take BAL -3. The titans are back to their old ways, bet on them as a home dog, fade them as a road favorite. They obviously arent favorites this weekend, but I think the ravens defense is really good and they should handle the titans offense. Lamar is playing really well right now and I think the ravens find a way to win this game. 

I am already in on the ravens passing props. Over 220 yards for lamar. Over 55.5 yards for Zay. Over 56 yards for Andrews. 

I am on Miami team total over 31.5. I am going to continue to ride this. They just score so fast. Tyreek is really unguardable this year. Tua is efficient. That run game is just so multiple that it really is impossible to defend. Carolina has not bought into their new coach. They are winless. I think they will fold. 

Check to see the injury reports - but if Kenny Moore is playing, Kirk gets a big downgrade.  Moore is one the best, if not the best slot CB around.    This is a smash spot for Calvin Ridley, though, given this.    Doug Pederson has shown he'll hammer the matchups - Ridley's target share was down against ATL to only 2 targets with the top cover CB AJ Terrell on him, whereas in week 1 Kirk only got 3 with Moore covering him.     As long as Kenny Moore is out there, Kirk's a mega-pass this week (if Moore is out, all systems go).   So, with that said, I added Calvin Ridley O59.5 rec yds for 2U on FD (no alt lines out yet, he was 59.5 on DK, but now 60.5), and 80+ rec yds +200 1U DK & 100+ rec yds +400 0.5U DK last night - that's the play in JAX IMO.   Thx for posting, realized I forgot someone (but def go there, a sub-5 target Kirk game wouldn't be a shocker)

Obv I like the BAL pass props if I'm hammering Flowers alt lines. 

Can't argue MIA O31.5 - re: Mostert, wait for the Jeff Wilson activation news.   If he gets activated, the books that don't have Mostert rush lines out may in fact drop them further.   He opened at 73.5 on DK, but he's already down to 68.5.   There's a TD play there I'm waiting on the other books to release TD props on (they're probably waiting on Wilson news as well, as every book has pass props out, but only DK has rush props, FD is waiting).

Edited October 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Trojan]

I feel like I've made terrible lineups on DraftKings this week, but I'm rolling with them unless injury report says otherwise but I can't figure out why I hate my lineups. Is there some obvious must starts I've missed or any "omg you're dumb" starts I have?

Jalen Hurts
Alvin Kamara
Raheem Mostert
Jamarr Chase
KJ Osborn
Josh Downs
Dallas Goedert
Donta Foreman
Patriots DST

Joe Burrow
Travis Etienne
Raheem Mostert
Jamarr Chase
KJ Osborn
Josh Downs
Logan Thomas
Adam Thielen
49ers DST

Garner Minshew
Christian McCafferey
Bijan Robinson
Drake London
KJ Osborn
Josh Downs
Dallas Goedert
Raheem Mostert
Eagles DST

Sam Howell
Raheem Mostert
Alexander Mattison
Jamarr Chase
Calvin Ridley
KJ Osborn
Logan Thomas
Terry McLaurin
49ers DST

Trevor Lawrence
Kyren Williams
Raheem Mostert
Jamarr Chase
Calvin Ridley
KJ Osborn
Evan Engram
Josh Downs
Patriots DST

Tua Tagovailoa
Donta Foreman
Dameon Pierce
Jamarr Chase
Tyreek Hill
Cedrick Wilson
Dallas Goedert
Rondale Moore
49ers DST

Edited October 13, 2023 by Trojan

[SaveOurSonics]

Brutal TNF for me...