BobbyPhil1781 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Anyone else raked over the coals today? Brutal. Up 1u on Thursday, down 12u today. Fingers crossed tonight is able to make it hurt less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 I lost my ATTD by one leg. Pittman didnt score. I knew I shouldnt have bet him. I shouldve just went with Walker. At this point CMC, Mostert, and Kyren are either auto or close to auto in the ATTD department. My team parlay was lost when the Niners lost. Then the Eagles lost too. So overall I had a brutal Week 6 in the NFL. I might place a MNF bet but we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 12 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Anyone else raked over the coals today? Brutal. Up 1u on Thursday, down 12u today. Fingers crossed tonight is able to make it hurt less. Yeah this was a baaaaaad week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 13 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Anyone else raked over the coals today? Brutal. Up 1u on Thursday, down 12u today. Fingers crossed tonight is able to make it hurt less. Not great, my confidence in Lamar really saved the day for me. After the first drive i took his rushing total over 38.5, that early win was big because I went like 2/13 the rest of the day Would have liked to seen the Vikings actually have to try for the last ~25 minutes of gametime.. thanks Fields! 🙄 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 1 hour ago, adamq said: Not great, my confidence in Lamar really saved the day for me. After the first drive i took his rushing total over 38.5, that early win was big because I went like 2/13 the rest of the day Would have liked to seen the Vikings actually have to try for the last ~25 minutes of gametime.. thanks Fields! 🙄 I really need to get into live betting but I feel like I will not be as responsible w/ my bank roll if I do. As a result, I just look at Pikkit so I don't even log into DK/FD and have to resist temptation. I do understand that the odds are usually in your favor w/ live betting though. Fields definitely got me as well. Just hope his thumb isn't too bad and he can come back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 (edited) Ok give me some player props for tonight? I’m picking the Chargers +2.5 tonight or really just outright ML win. Dak O.5 int MAYBE even consider him O1 int. Herbert should hit his passing yards and I think he can get even O1.5 passing TDs. The Cowboys kicker should get O1.5 FGs made MAYBE even O2.5 bc we know how bad Dallas redzone defense is so I can see them settling for FG kicks. Edited October 16, 2023 by stl4life07 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 (edited) 17 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: Anyone else raked over the coals today? Brutal. Up 1u on Thursday, down 12u today. Fingers crossed tonight is able to make it hurt less. 5 hours ago, JonStark said: Yeah this was a baaaaaad week. 4 hours ago, adamq said: Not great, my confidence in Lamar really saved the day for me. After the first drive i took his rushing total over 38.5, that early win was big because I went like 2/13 the rest of the day Would have liked to seen the Vikings actually have to try for the last ~25 minutes of gametime.. thanks Fields! 🙄 The only ppl who didn't get absolutely slaughtered yesterday: 1. Bet unders 2. Blind bet big dogs 3. Didn't bet. To be fair, the player prop totals factor in the risk of injury; it's why some totals look so underweight. But to recap how injuries changed the gamescript completely: 1. Tannehill's exit not only killed the Hopkins props, but BAL was clearly more conservative realizing TEN couldn't score quickly or often. Absolutely killed Flowers in 2H. 2. Fields' injury did the same for MIN, who backed off the pass game and any aggression in their 2H. Hockenson had 50 yards after the 1st play of the 2H. And then got 2 targets the rest of the way. Ugly, ugly, ugly. 3. Lane Johnson's injury led to more chips by TE, and the Jets' CB injuries led to PHI going with the WR's more. Johnson's injury shows how valuable he is to that pass game. Got lucky Goedert main prop hit, but alt line goodness with NYJ CB's and Johnson in the game was there to be had. 4. JimmyG's exit destroyed the LV pass game - Meyers had 4 catches at halftime...and 1 in the 2H. Only 2 targets. 5. I didn't have any SF-CLE props, but obv CMC / Deebo injuries were bad. But there as well, Trent Williams' exit vs. Myles Garrett and the CLE D was a killer for any SF O. 6. This was foreseeable (the others above except NYJ CB news weren't), but the lack of threat from Gardner Minshew with the IND O (don't let the 20 pts fool you, 14 of them were in absolute garbage time) completely contracted the JAX pass game, as they got up huge early on, and coasted the entire 2H. Injuries happen - and they suck. But we seldom see it across the board as we did yesterday. It's no wonder the books said Week 6 was a killer weekend for them. For me, the tally was brutal: ATS - 2-2, +0.1U PLAYER PROPS - 5-6, -5.3U - Dobbs alt lines, Lamar rush props, Goedert O37.5, Stevenson O44.5 & Meyers O4.5 catches (sucks on the 5.5, split that bet dammit) were so greasy because of injuries, but they offset a pretty tough day TD Props - 0-9, -7U. This really is getting tough on the bad breaks - Kyle Phillips is open in EZ but CB tackles him for DPI instead of a TD, and Colby Parkinson gets targeted (and is open on another but Geno doesn't look his way). So that's a -12.1U day...so yeah, rough. Oh well, way it goes. I have to say as much as yesterday sucked, the truly bad calls were Hopkins & Ridley props - because TEN struggling in UK (BAL was well prepared), and IND O not being a threat vs. JAX were very forecastable. You can't really control injuries changing gamescript. Still, a bad Sunday after a brutal TNF isn't great. Going to be a terrible Week 7, no matter how MNF goes, barring some massive 2-TD goodness (but not going to chase, 2 guys I love at their number, and that's really about it, other than LAC ML and hoping for 1 really low # to attack). Let's finish MNF on a decent note to get Week 8 in better shape. ATS/ML: 8-13-1, -4.7U (WK 6 TNF: 0-1, -1U) PLAYER PROPS: 43-46, +13.6U (WK 6 TNF: 2-2, -4.5U - McKinnon called back play UGH -9.5U swing) LONGSHOT TD: 9-77, -4.4U (WK5 0-13, -11.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700) TOTAL - +4.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 TNF - -22.1U; 349U stake so far) Edited October 16, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: I really need to get into live betting but I feel like I will not be as responsible w/ my bank roll if I do. As a result, I just look at Pikkit so I don't even log into DK/FD and have to resist temptation. I do understand that the odds are usually in your favor w/ live betting though. Fields definitely got me as well. Just hope his thumb isn't too bad and he can come back I dont do it as much this year as I did in the past, you really have to pick your spots and try to pick up value on spots you liked prior.. obviously watching the game, too.. I think the line was 42.5 pregame, I thought the defense would adjust to how much BAL passed on the opening drive, and Lamar can get you 40 in 1 play.. so I nabbed a little extra value but didn't need it as he got to 50 in the 3rd quarter I believe Gerald Everett is a guy I'll keep an eye on tonight... weird player who some games will get 8 targets, others is a total afterthought. Palmer has a hamstring issue but will go, another guy to look out for is Derius Davis. Gadget player/kick returner, don't expect him to do much vs Dallas ST and that weirdo coach they have... but offensively the weapons are kinda scarce and Davis should get a few chances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, adamq said: I dont do it as much this year as I did in the past, you really have to pick your spots and try to pick up value on spots you liked prior.. obviously watching the game, too.. I think the line was 42.5 pregame, I thought the defense would adjust to how much BAL passed on the opening drive, and Lamar can get you 40 in 1 play.. so I nabbed a little extra value but didn't need it as he got to 50 in the 3rd quarter I believe Gerald Everett is a guy I'll keep an eye on tonight... weird player who some games will get 8 targets, others is a total afterthought. Palmer has a hamstring issue but will go, another guy to look out for is Derius Davis. Gadget player/kick returner, don't expect him to do much vs Dallas ST and that weirdo coach they have... but offensively the weapons are kinda scarce and Davis should get a few chances The other guy is Donald Parham, he's back. And he's +500 / +7000 2+ TD's on Fanduel, and the reasons why you like Everett are why Parham is so good as a longshot TD. He's worth the full 1U play. Herbert does spread it around, so the high-odds plays like Parham & Davis are very good. My card: WEEK 7 MNF ATS/ML LAC +110 - from before, no need to rehash. PLAYER PROPS Donald Parham o12.5 rec yds 2U FD (alt lines not out yet for FD or DK - sigh) - if it's like 12.5 or lower, I'll go 2U there, and then see about 25+. If you have B365 then 25+ def worth 1U. LONGSHOT TD Donald Parham +500 / +7000 FD 2+ 1.2U / 0.3U - the big RZ mismatch, and Kellen Moore always has shown he'll go there. This is a huge mismatch to exploit, NGL I'm thinking very hard about 1.2U/0.3U here TBH. Justin Herbert +700 FD / +8000 2+ - TheScore (was +7000 before single-TD went up, now off the board) 0.8U / 0.2U - I know Austin Ekeler is back, but with him just getting back into shape, I can't resist taking a shot they get ball to 1 and Herbert sneaks it in, we've certainly seen it. Derrius Davis +1000 / +12000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - pure odds play given how much Herbert will spread it around. That's 6U at play, with a possible 2-3U more on Parham rec yds. Going to follow my own advice and not expand to chase a bad week. BOL! Edited October 16, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 16, 2023 Share Posted October 16, 2023 Ok this is my MNF parlay: Pollard O3.5 receptions Herbert 200+ yds passing Lamb 40+yds REC Allen 40+yds REC Herbert O1.5 passing TDs O3.5 total FGs made I feel good about all of it. If I lose its going to be bc Pollard didnt catch 4 balls OR a kicker missed a FG and failed short of making 4 FGs. What do yall think about my parlay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) 49 minutes ago, stl4life07 said: Ok this is my MNF parlay: Pollard O3.5 receptions Herbert 200+ yds passing Lamb 40+yds REC Allen 40+yds REC Herbert O1.5 passing TDs O3.5 total FGs made I feel good about all of it. If I lose its going to be bc Pollard didnt catch 4 balls OR a kicker missed a FG and failed short of making 4 FGs. What do yall think about my parlay? I got away from these just because it always seems like that one leg is gonna miss in a stupid fashion. Evey leg looks good on its own so YOLO My last minute bet, .5u Ceedee Lamb 1st team TD scorer +420.. just based on what the guys who talked to the coaches have said pregame.. Some mentions of CD getting the ball early/often, I think he'll get a deep shot on the first drive Edited October 17, 2023 by adamq 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, adamq said: I got away from these just because it always seems like that one leg is gonna miss in a stupid fashion. Evey leg looks good on its own so YOLO My last minute bet, .5u Ceedee Lamb 1st team TD scorer +420.. just based on what the guys who talked to the coaches have said pregame.. Some mentions of CD getting the ball early/often, I think he'll get a deep shot on the first drive Yeah the Cowboys are going to need to get Lamb involved. This has to be a Dak passing game to keep up with the Chargers who are going to move the ball up and down the field and score. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, stl4life07 said: Yeah the Cowboys are going to need to get Lamb involved. This has to be a Dak passing game to keep up with the Chargers who are going to move the ball up and down the field and score. Yeah perhaps I should have gone yardage instead of that 1st td bet, normally never something I do. He's got 50 already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 44 minutes ago, adamq said: Yeah perhaps I should have gone yardage instead of that 1st td bet, normally never something I do. He's got 50 already Yeah I typically stay away from 1st td bet and just go with ATTD or yards. Lamb is on his way to over 100yds receiving. I just went 40+ yds on the safe side. Now I need Allen to get to 40+yds. Herbert needs 1 more passing TD and 87 passing yards. Pollard need 1 more catch and the teams need 3 more made FGs total. So I hope the 2nd half is filled with fireworks lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 I just need a Herbert passing TD and two made FGs total to win my league parlay. In other words I’m hoping for OT or a wild 4th quarter lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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