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Broncofan

Broncofan

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8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Added Juwan Johnson +440 TheScore / +4000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - no explanation needed.  Actually got 2 EZ looks last week first game Back.  As long as RZ struggles continue he’s getting more looks.

With Darren Waller IR news keep on the lookout for Lawrence Cager - he's +1200 DK & TheScore & +14000 2+ on DK 0.4U / 0.1U, and I'll be curious so see what FD/Bodog offer him at.   I've taken a half-unit on TheScore & 2-TD on DK, but would obv go a half-unit more if he gets even better odds than +1200 - he's by far a bigger catch and RZ threat than Bellinger.

For MNF I went back to the TE route but on the Jets side with Tyler Conklin +500 / +6500 FD 0.4U/0.1U for now.  I don't think the odds will change much, but because it's FD I'm willing to wait to see if it gets a prime-time late boost (+600 is usually the threshold but it's close enough it's worth waiting on

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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5 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

what makes you go him do they run alot of 3 te sets?

1. Arthur Smith is a grade A d-bag.  He literally references fantasy managers as the main source of complainers.   And calls Kurt Warner out as being financially motivated for clicks.  So he’d play Pruitt in RZ for spite.  
 

2.  Pruitt does get RZ snaps - last week he even got a EZ target from Jonnu Smith (lol). 
 

3.  With Drake London out all 3 TE have more TD equity.  But Pitts & Smith are in +300 to +400 range. 
 

The last part - Pruitt is +1200 to +1400 everywhere else.  Which isn’t far off.   So it’s probably a donation but MyCole Pruitt is +1400 Bodog / +25000 2+ TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U - he’s +900 - +1200  everywhere else gotta take the half unit stab.
 

TL:DR - ‘Arthur Smith says FU’ to everyone else and all Kyle Pitts fantasy managers because he’s a grade A d-bag. Pruitt did get an EZ target last week.  Yolo play.

 

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Trojan

Trojan

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On 11/3/2023 at 12:23 PM, Trojan said:

I'm only doing one draftkings daily main contest lineup this week and I really like it.

QB: Derek Carr v. CHI
RB: Alvin Kamara v. CHI
RB: Jonathan Taylor v. CAR
WR: Ceedee Lamb v. PHI
WR: Chris Olave v. CHI
WR: Demario Davis v. WAS
TE: Kyle Pitts v. MIN
FLEX: Jaylin Hyatt v. LVR
DST: Browns v. ARI

I may make a couple variants lineups with Hyatt and the Browns defense changed up, but the core group above I'm really liking.

Carr + Kamara + Olave against Chicago seems like it could be a big trio to me, but maybe I am dumb. Carr's been on a hot streak of volume. Jonathan Taylor has been time sharing, but producing and the Panthers have been run on. Ceedee in a game where you likely have to pass can be WR1, it's also the later game of the lineup and I like to have a guy that can climb me late in the contest. Demario Davis is a fast guy that has been getting more work and has injuries opening up even more potential work. Pitts has a QB change and Drake London out so it might be his best opportunity to shine this year yet. Hyatt is a budget $3000 flex where Daniel Jones may come back and he has enough speed to maybe get a long TD or something, the Raiders don't have really have speed on defense so maybe it works? Browns are up against Clayton Tune so YOLO.

I ended up with 6 lineups but not this one. I just couldn't end up selling myself on Hyatt and the way things go that means he'll end up like 3 catches 120 yards and 2 TD lol.

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Jonathan Taylor
RB: Devin Singletary
WR: Ceedee Lamb
WR: Chris Olave
WR: Zay Flowers
TE: Kyle Pitts
FLEX: Demario Douglas
DST: Packers

QB: Sam Howell
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Ceedee Lamb
WR: Chris Olave
WR: Jahan Dotson
TE: Kyle Pitts
FLEX: Demario Douglas
DST: Giants

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Saquon Barkley
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Chris Olave
WR: Ceedee Lamb
WR: Demario Douglas
TE: Kyle Pitts
FLEX: Rondale Moore
DST: Browns

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Jonathan Taylor
WR: Chris Olave
WR: Jahan Dotson
WR: Demario Douglas
TE: Kyle Pitts
FLEX: Aaron Jones
DST: Browns

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Devin Singletary
RB: Jerome Ford
WR: Chris Olave
WR: AJ Brown
WR: Ceedee Lamb
TE: Kyle Pitts
FLEX: Michael Thomas
DST: Packers

QB: Derek Carr
RB: Jonathan Taylor
RB: Jerome Ford
WR: Chris Olave
WR: Rashid Shaheed
WR: AJ Brown
TE: Kyle Pitts
FLEX: Aaron Jones
DST: Packers

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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On 11/4/2023 at 10:35 AM, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan particularly love the plays this week. 

Going to tack on Joe Mixon over 62.5 rushing yards -110 for Sunday night, and 75+ yard milestone at +130.

- He’s getting almost all the carries at this point

 - No Milano and Daquon Jones huge for BUF run D.

- Mixon looked surprisingly great last week.

- Rushed for 20 and 105 in the Divisional Round last year (with a complete mess of an OL, mind you)

- Honestly, I think we roll them and have the rushing script on our side.

 

 

On 11/4/2023 at 1:22 PM, Broncofan said:

Yeah by that time on SNF I'll see if I'm up for more props (NGL putting 40U+ each Sunday is pretty damn stressful, but the alt lines are what make the props profitable, so gotta dive in).     If I'm in decent shape (read: not decimated), Mixon's one of the ones I've underlined.  BUF's run D without Matt Milano and Daquon Jones is a big issue for them.    

OK Sunday's been OK, I'm somewhere around +3-+4U right now with Jonathan Taylor rush props, and 1 likely dead TD prop and 1 which needs garbage time (Lawrence Cager has no hope with no Danny Dimes out, Tommy Tremble will need garbage time in 2 with bad Bryce Young back).   So for SNF I'm going to add 2 player props and 2 TD plays for 7.5U more and 10U total:

WEEK 9 SNF

ATS/ML

CIN -120 - already covered this before, nothing new.   Again nothing against BUF, 2 of top 5 NFL teams facing each other.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Dalton Kincaid O37.5 rec yds (now O40.5), 60+ Rec Yds +260, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK - covered before, nothing to add.

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Joe Mixon O59.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rush yds +200 1U DK - I don't get why the line dropped, but. it makes it even more appealing than when it was at O62.5.   Also worth a 1U alt line play.   BUF's run D with no Daquon Jones and no Matt Milano isn't the same.  

NEW ADDED SUN PM Joe Burrow O10.5 rush yds 2U FD, 25+ rush yds +250 1U DK - Joe Brrr looks healthy, and when he's healthy against decent pass D's, he's run for 20+ rush yds almost every game.    So worth the alt line play.  EDIT FRI 730 PM ET:  Holy ***, FD is O10.5, take that instead.   Sadly no alt lines, so DK 25+ rush yds +250 it is.

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Khalil Shakir +450 / +5000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - I'm disappointed he didn't hit as a +900 play the last few weeks but he's definitely no secret now.   The best value on the TD board for guys who get a ton of snaps in the RZ.

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Andre Iosivas +900 TheScore 0.4U / +9000 2+ DK 0.1U - CIN's version of Donald Parham / Juwan Johnson, a RZ/EZ mismatch who's scored 2x.   He's more like +500 to +650 on the other books, which makes +900 worth the half-stake play.

So that's 10U total for SNF, more than enough in what we all hope is a great game.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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On 11/2/2023 at 5:43 PM, Broncofan said:

Some Sunday props are out, and definitely about 8 props and 3-4 TD props worth taking (some that I've already listed):

WEEK 9 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML

EARLY

MIA ML +130 @ KC (Germany) 2U - I've already covered this one, the travel gap between 2 evenly matched teams is a huge diff here. 

MIN ML +170 @ ATL - yes, Taylor Heinecke is an upgrade on Desmond Ridder.   And no, Jaren Hall isn't this incredible hidden gem.  But ATL losing Grady Jarrett and not getting an EDGE is a massive blow to the ATL D, and Brian Flores has the MIN D humming.   This is a 50-50 matchup, and I'm getting +170?   Have to take this.  
 

LATE

Nothing yet 

SNF

CIN ML -120 vs. BUF - CIN's clicking, and they get to face Josh Allen at home.   This is nothing against BUF, because IMO these are 2 top 5 NFL teams facing each other.   The big diff with CIN now is that Joe Burrow is 100 percent, and the D is suddenly surging up with with DC Lou Anarumo up to his tricks.  
 

That's 4U on ATS/ML plays so far.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Rasheed Shaheed O28.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ Rec yds +300 1U, 80+ Rec yds 0.5U FD - against the CHI D, speed is what hurts them the most, so I'll go here easily and pray NO OC Carmichael & Derek Carr keep realizing they need to feed him more.

Mike Evans O52.5 rec yds 2U  (FRI: now 54.5) , 80+ rec yds +260 1U, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U & 120+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK - still the alpha guy, and HOU is still vulnerable to top WR's.    They don't get a lot of pressure on QB, and that's how Baker Mayfield thrives.   EDIT FRI AM:  I'm taking the rare 4U play with 3 alt lines, as the ceiling here is massive.

Mark Andrews O50.5 rec yds 2U (FRI: now 49.5), 70+ rec yds +200, 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - the SEA D still is TE vulnerable (David Njoku the latest to put up a big day), got to back the BAL target hog that Lamar relies on.

Alvin Kamara O4.5 receptions +120 2U DK (B365 / US FD - take 6+/7+ rec ladder) - I don't even think I need to explain this one.    CHI's D against RB's is soft, and remember they like to give up the short stuff and keep the ball in front of them - that's Kamara all day (Shaheed only needs 1 chunk play to break O28.5, so the dichtomy works IMO).   B365 bettors, you know what to do.

Demario Douglas O41.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +320 1U, 100+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK - the only talented WR left (sorry Juju isn't that guy anymore).   WAS pass D is so vulnerable got to take the 70+ line as well.   EDIT FRI AM:  The alt line for 100+ is likely a donation, but WAS is really that bad, so it's a YOLO 3.5U play. 

Christian Watson O42.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +300 1U, 100 rec yds +900 0.5U DK - I know Jordan Love is scary.  But LAR is 30th against WR1's this year, and Watson is still averaging 6+ targets a game, and almost 15 air yards per target.    If he can't do it here, then I worry for ROS, but this has to be one of the top smash spots for him.    It's so good setup wise that I'm going to use the 2nd 0.4U bet credit on him being top weekend yardage scorer at 110-1. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM Kyle Pitts O41.5 rec yds, 70+ rec yds, 100+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK - the 100+ is probably a donation, but those are ridiculous odds with a functional QB now there.   Pitts is just a matchup nightmare, but he's been hamstrung by Arthur Smith's scheme and by Desmond Ridder's uncatcheable throw rate (2nd highest in league).    Taylor Heinecke isn't good by any means, but he's serviceable fantasy-wise.   

NEW ADDED FRI PM Jahan Dotson O42.5 rec yds 2U FD, 70+ rec yds +270 1U FD, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - with new Curtis Samuel is out, that activates one of my 2023 learned rules - never play Jahan Dotson unless Samuel is out.  When you add in that NE's pass D actively tries to take out the #1 weapon and lets the others get more work, Dotson's props become more appealing with Terry Mclaurin drawing their attention.

LATE

Jonathan Taylor O64.5 rush yds 2U (FRI: now 67.5), 90+ rush yds +250 1U, 120+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK - yes, Zach Moss could steal touches.  But as we saw last week vs. a really good NO D, he may only need 12-15 carries to get into the 100+ range.   Too good value to pass up here. 


SNF

Dalton Kincaid O37.5 rec yds (FRI: now 38.5), 60+ rec yds +260, 80+ rec yds 1U +600 0.5U DK - while Anarumo has the CIN D playing a lot better, one area they're still vulnerable to - the TE, they're 30th in DVOA.    With no Dawson Knox, this is a smash spot, full 3.5U play.

 

MNF

Breece Hall O56.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rush yds +220 1U, 100+ rush yds +550 0.5U; O16.5 rec yds 2U each DK, alt lines pending (and will take 40+ rec yds, 2 rush lines)  - LAC D is so soft against the run, and RB pass yards (Roschon Johnson O11.5 failed but the 3 RB's combined went 8-40+...sigh).    The rare 6-7U play is coming up, taking both sides of rush & rec yds.   PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't get hurt. 

Tyler Conklin O26.5 rec yds 2U DK, 50+ rec yds +320, 70+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - LAC's TE pass coverage is also awful, so have to take the 50+ alt line play here once it's out.

That's 34U I'm likely committing to with 10 SUN player props.   I've also taken the 0.4U free bet credit on Christian Watson as top Sunday yardage receiver at 110-1 YOLO, and the 2nd 0.4U free bet credit on Evans O54.5 / Andrews O49.5 / Shaheed O28.5 / Douglas O41.5 / Watson O41.5 rec yds / J-Taylor O67.5 rush yds / Kincaid O37.5 /  Conklin O26.5 for a free 0.4U +18000 8-leg YOLO bet credit play. 

 

LONGSHOT TD 

EARLY

Noah Gray +1100 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - I covered this before, nothing different in the reasoning.

Julian Hill +1000 / +12500 2+ DK (now +750; opened +2200 originally on B365; now +800) 0.4U / 0.1U - same deal with Hill, the books wised up and dropped the odds; he's now +800 on B365 & +750 on DK.

Colby Parkinson +1000 / +15000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U -  you know the deal; Parkinson didn't get the same looks vs. CLE, but that's the #1 TE D (and incidentally why I passed on him last week, and am passing on any Trey McBride props too).   BAL's more vulnerable, so it's back to the well here, he keeps getting snaps & looks, at +1000 I have to take the shot again.

Noah Brown +600 / +1000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - Robert Woods is expected to miss 1-2 more games, you know I have to take the shot here, Brown's RZ snaps & looks make this a full stake play.

Jaren Hall +700 / +1000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - what's crazy about Bodog is they have Josh Dobbs at +400.   Hall is a running QB and MIN's run game struggles, so a rush TD is not out of the question.  Worth the half-stake play. 

Pharoah Brown +1900 FD 0.9U / +12500 2+ 0.1U Bodog - this is the 3rd TE in NE - but he's getting 40+ percent of te snaps.    Mike Gesicki's stock has plummeted, and Brown's taken up the slack.  With so many NE WR's out (Bourne & Parker), not only does Demario Douglas get top billing as WR, but IMO 12 formation RZ becomes super viable.   And at that number, I have to take a shot at half-stake. Because the 2-TD prop isn't great relative to 1-TD value, I'm going 0.9U FD & 0.1U Bodog.

NEW ADDED FRI AM Darryton Evans +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - I am sad in taking this play, but I can't deny how much the OC likes Evans as a pass catcher.   Against the NO D that is a viable spot to target, as the WR coverage is excellent (and so is the TE).   Still it's Tyler Bagent so I can't really push more than a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI PM Khadarel Hodge +800 FD 0.4U / +6000 2+ 0.1U TheScore - with no Drake London, Pitts gets a boost, but so do the rest of the WR's.   Hodge gets as many looks as Van Jefferson & Mack Hollins but he's priced 2-3x longer than either.   So worth the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Juwan Johnson +440 TheScore / +4000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - no explanation needed.  Actually got 2 EZ looks last week first game Back.  As long as RZ struggles continue he’s getting more looks.

…

NEW ADDED SUN AM  MyCole Pruitt is +1400 Bodog / +25000 2+ TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U - he’s +900 -  +1200  everywhere else but basically this is a ‘Arthur Smith says FU’ to everyone else and all Kyle Pitts fantasy managers because he’s a grade A d-bag.  Pruitt did get an EZ target last week.  Yolo play.

 

LATE

Tommy Tremble +1000 FD/Bodog / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - Hayden Hurst is splitting snaps and reps with Tremble, so at these odds, I have to go with the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Lawrence Cager +1200 TheScore 0.4U / ?? 2-TD 0.1U (and maybe doubled to full-stake) - Darren Waller's on IR, and with Danny Jones and very possibly LT Andrew Thomas back, that gives the G-men a functional pass attack.   If both are back, I'll likely double this, especially if the DK/FD/Bodog books offer a better line - Daniel Bellinger is the starter now, but much like Parham vs. Everett, Cager's the much more dangerous RZ weapon. 


MNF

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Donald Parham +500 Score (+370 DK) 0.8U / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - too good to pass up, even with Everett back, we know that Parham is the RZ mismatch they scheme for.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tyler Conklin +500 / +6500 2+ FD 0.4U/0.1U for now (likely doubling) - LAC's pass D is def still a problem, and at these odds, have to take the half-stake play.  Because it's FD, there's a chance with prime-time games these odds will increase, so I'll wait until Monday evening to see if I double this.  
 

So that's 9U with 13 TD player props for SUN so far.    With so many games without DK or FD props, that's enough for now.   Right now, I'm likely at 47U  in SUN slate plays.   Enough for now for sure...lol.   BOL!

 

WEEK 9 TNF

ATS/ML: 14-20-2, -3.2U (WK 9 TNF - 0-1, -1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 65-61, +55.0U  (WK 9 TNF - 2-0, +4.2U)

LONGSHOT TD: 13-115 - -18.6U  (WK 9 TNF - 1-3, +0.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300)

TOTAL - +33.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 TNF - +3.6U; 527U stake so far)

Well the late slate wasn't much, but it was agonizing to watch as the IND D basically kept the O off the field.  Still, that's the way it goes. 

ATS/ML - 1-1, -0.3U - lost the 2U ML on MIA (god Tua that last drive 3rd down pass lol), but pulled out the +170 ML MIN win.   CIN -120 decides the day for this area.

PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, -0.4U - Taylor was the one L that wasn't close.   Kamara was BRUTAL, he had 4 catches at halftime (and Carr misfired on 2 2H checkdowns).   Watson dropped a 30+ yarder and ended up 6 yards short, Shaheed was again ignored and ended up 7 yards short.   J-Taylor had 18 carries, I can't ask for more vs. a bottom 3 D.   Oh well.   Thankfully the other 5 props hit, and so many hit 1st alt lines, to make the difference

LONGSHOT TD's - 2-7, +3U - to be clear, Lawrence Cager, Pharoah Brown, Darrynton Evans & Julian Hill did not get good opps.   Cager was stymied by Danny Jones leaving the game early, the other 3 were just ovecalls (Smythe not playing would have changed that obv).   Gotta say Jalen Hall looked like a great call, he held up bracing for the hit, if he went for it, I think he avoids the big impact AND he scores.   And Parkinson, Hodge & Tremble all had plenty of snaps in the RZ, and the last 2 got pretty considerable work there.    Oh well, way it goes.   

Noah Brown & Juwan Johnson being full-stake plays was REALLY nice, just unfortunate as Noah Brown had MULTIPLE chances to get 2-TD's....which have been sweat.   Still, I can't complain, it's really nice to literally hit TD plays on consecutive Sundays and on prime time, let's see if we can continue the streak on SNF/MNF

So it's a +2.3U day....which could have been so much more with Noah Brown 2nd TD, or some better fortune with the player props (Kamara & Watson were agonizing lol).   

The thing is, I'm excited for the SNF/MNF plays I'm on, so hopefully we can keep this going.   Let's end Week 9 on a high note!

WEEK 9 SNF

ATS/ML: 15-21-2, -3.2U (WK 9 SNF - 1-2, -1.3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 70-65 +54.6U  (WK 9 SNF - 7-4, +3.8U)

LONGSHOT TD: 15-124 - -15.6U  (WK 9 SNF - 3-12, +3.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600)

TOTAL - +35.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 SNF - +6.3U; 574U stake so far)

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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SNF was great for the CIN ML & Dalton Kincaid hitting both alt lines for +7.6U - Joe Burrow & Joe Mixon went poof, and no TD's, so it's a +1.1U SNF.   NGL I'm a little disappointed that I didn't smash this slate as I pegged Shakir for a TD and he hit main yardage prop and 1st alt line - but I didn't partake.  Oh well lol

Still, it was a tidy-profit day thanks to the alt lines, and a nice ML bounceback for MIN & then CIN after MIA crashed hard.   

On to MNF, where I do love me 4 player props and 3 TD plays....

WEEK 9 MNF

ATS/ML

I am super tempted to take NYJ ML or NYJ +3.5, but that requires me to put my $ on Zach Wilson & Nathaniel Hackett.   That's just too much faith to ask for - I feel fortunate to have the push from last week.

PLAYER PROPS 

Breece Hall O56.5 rush yards 2U, 80+ rush yds +220 1U, 100+ rush yds +500 0.5U; O16.5 rec yds (now 18.5) 2U, 40+ rec yds +320 1U, 60+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - OK, NGL, this 7U play is downright scary - but if there's a position that LAC has real trouble matching up against, it's RB's and TE's.    With Hall's home run ability, this is a play to take on both sides.  PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't get hurt this game Breece!

Tyler Conklin O26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +320 1U, 70+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - the other part of the NYJ pass game that has a low enough # I can back.    LAC's TE D is very leaky, so it matches up so well.

Donald Parham O15.5 rec yds 2U Bodog (16.5 on FD/DK), DK alt lines pending (probably will consider 40+) - with Gerald Everett back, can't get too crazy - but on the other hand, with no Josh Palmer, I suspect we'll see a lot of Parham with the NYJ CB's locking down the Charger depth chart WR's.

Austin Ekeler O4.5 recs 2U (B365 players - take 6-7 alt lines) +100 DK - when Keenan Allen or Mike Williams missed a game in 2022, Ekeler drew at least 7 targets in 9 of those 11 games, and drew 10+ targets in half of them.  With no Josh Palmer, and a CB corps that is likely going to blanket the supporting cast guys lining up with Keenan Allen, I believe 10+ targets are going his way.   I'd definitely go with the alt lines if I had B365 - NYJ is averaging 8+ catches and 50+ yards a game to RB's. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

Donald Parham +500 TheScore / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - already took this before, if you want to use the 50% boost DK offers, you can get a similar line with Parham being +380 there (so +570 TD with the boost).    Since I got a great line from TheScore, however, I'm going to use my boost on...

Tyler Conklin +625 (DK 50% boost on +475 for +720 odds 0.5U & 0.4U +500 FD) 0.9U / +6500 2+ FD 0.2U - I love Conkin's chances as much as I do Parham, so I'm going to take the chance to boost him up to get a functional +625 play.   I'd still take +500 as I think his odds are more like +300 this week vs. LAC's vulnerable TE D.

Xavier Gipson +900 DK (may want to wait, as it's +850 on FD) 0.4U / +11000 2+ 0.1U DK - the gadget guy the Jets keep trying to use in the RZ.   He also returns punts, but it's his increasing role over Randall Cobb that gives him equity here, esp against the 3rd CB for the Chargers. 

So that's 15.5U in 4 player props (7U on Breece Hall alone - PLEASE don't get hurt) and 2.5U in 3 TD props - 18U is a LOT for a single-game card where the implied total barely hits 40, but in this case, going away from the Chargers WR's allows concentrated plays on Ekeler & Parham, and Breece Hall has the ultimate dual threat smash spot, while TE is a prime spot to exploit vs. the Chargers D as well.    

 

WEEK 9 to MNF

ATS/ML: 16-21-2, -2.2U (WK 9 MNF - 0-2, -0.3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 71-67 +56.7U  (WK 9 SNF - 8-6, +5.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 15-126 - -17.5U  (WK 9 SNF - 3-14, +1.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600)

TOTAL - +37.0U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 MNF - +7.4U; 584U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
On 11/4/2023 at 10:35 AM, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan particularly love the plays this week. 

Going to tack on Joe Mixon over 62.5 rushing yards -110 for Sunday night, and 75+ yard milestone at +130.

- He’s getting almost all the carries at this point

 - No Milano and Daquon Jones huge for BUF run D.

- Mixon looked surprisingly great last week.

- Rushed for 20 and 105 in the Divisional Round last year (with a complete mess of an OL, mind you)

- Honestly, I think we roll them and have the rushing script on our side.

 

Such a frustrating loss on an otherwise fruitful weekend. That game went exactly as I imagined. It set up perfectly to hand the ball off 20+ times to Mixon. But CIN just flat out refused refused to run the ball. Flat out refused. Don’t know how to explain it. 

That’s the bad beats of betting, I guess.

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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Such a frustrating loss on an otherwise fruitful weekend. That game went exactly as I imagined. It set up perfectly to hand the ball off 20+ times to Mixon. But CIN just flat out refused refused to run the ball. Flat out refused. Don’t know how to explain it. 

That’s the bad beats of betting, I guess.

That's wild to me. I came in at 4 am today so I went to sleep at halftime.. Mixon was killing it in the first half!

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